Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 62

The UFC has been having a blockbuster year so far, with the Pay-Per-View buy rates and TV ratings showing  a marked increase from 2014.  And even the events that didn’t look so hot on paper, like UFC 184, turned out to be entertaining.  Lets see if the trend continues this Saturday, as UFC will broadcast another mediocre-looking Fight Night card from Brazil, live on Fox Sports 1.

Main Event: [#10 WW] Demian Maia vs [#20 WW] Ryan LaFlare

Worth: $5

Why: Most of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Demian Maia’s 19 UFC fights have followed one of two MOs.  Opponents who are willing to grapple with Maia or unable to stop his takedowns, face either a brutal submission or an extended domination on the mat.  Those who are not willing to engage Maia on the ground, and able to keep the fight standing, usually end up winning a decision due to Demian’s serviceable but not elite striking.  Of course there are a couple of exceptions to this rule – e.g. the one-punch KO Maia suffered at the hands of Nate Marquardt, or running into someone like Jake Shields who is able to stifle Maia’s grappling with a strong top game.  But for the most part, we either get to see Maia the grappler or Maia the kickboxer; as he has not been able to smoothly transition between the stand-up and ground phases of a fight.

Which version of Maia we see depends largely on his opponent.   Enter Ryan LaFlare – an undefeated welterweight prospect who came into the UFC at 7-0, with 100% finish rate.  While LaFlare was able to keep his record unblemished in the Octagon, he didn’t have as much luck finishing his opponents, winning all four of his UFC fights by decision.  His wins include solid mid-level names like Court McGee and John Howard, but he is taking a big step up in competition here with Maia as his first top-10 opponent.

How exciting this fight will be depends largely on Ryan’s ability to keep the fight standing.  If he can, then he is likely to win another dull decision and continue his rise in the ranks.  Otherwise, he will fall victim to Maia’s ground game, which usually makes for a fun fight (unless you’re Maia’s opponent).  Based on Demian’s recent performances and LaFlare’s potential, I am leaning towards the first outcome.

Fight: [#25 WW] Erick Silva vs [#93 WW] Josh Koscheck

Worth: $2.50

Why: The injury bug bites again.  Erick Silva was originally scheduled to face Ben Saunders on this card, in what looked like  a great fight on paper.  After Saunders pulled out with an injury, Benson Henderson threw his name into the hat for a potential replacement opponent.  However, the UFC ended up making an odd decision to match Josh Koscheck with Silva instead.  This makes Koscheck as one of very few UFC competitors to get another fight after losing four straight. It will also be Koscheck’s 25th UFC fight, tying him with Matt Hughes and Gleison Tibau for second most career UFC bouts.

Records aside, I really don’t like this fight.  In fact I almost feel bad for giving it any kind of valuation.  Koscheck has performed horribly in his past three fights, and it doesn’t look like the time off has done him much good: he seemed helpless on the feet against Jake Ellenberger before being submitted with a choke that literally made Josh foam at the mouth.  I expected Koscheck to call it a career with such a poor performance; instead here he is stepping up on short notice less than a month later, against a beatable yet very dangerous opponent.  I hope he can muster up a win and go out on top, but if his recent fights are any indication, I don’t like his chances here.

Fight: [#58 FW] Andre Fili vs [#126 FW] Godofredo Castro

Worth: $5

Why: I generally don’t rate fights where neither fighter is ranked in the top 50 of their weight class, but will make an exception here, as both guys are exciting young prospects, with Godofredo ‘Pepey’ Castro already earning two performance of the night awards in his short UFC career. Small bonus given for the battle of amusing nicknames: how could you not look forward to a matchup between ‘Pepey’ and ‘Touchy’ Fili?

Fox Sports 1 Card Worth: $12.50
Event Price: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $7.50

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $29.97
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-24.97

Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $79.50
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $30
Net Value: $49.50