They say all good things must come to an end.  And so as the UFC is wrapping up a what was a very successful year for the promotion with another stacked event on Fox/Fox Sports 1, I will be wrapping up 2015 with the last installment in the ‘Bang for Your Buck’ series.  It’s hard to believe that Zuffa is able to put on such a strong card just a week after a ridiculous weekend of three UFC events in three days.  Besides a lightweight title fight and a long awaited matchup between two hard hitting Top 10 heavyweights, the main card on Fox also features another solid lightweight bout, while an extended 3-hour block of prelims on FS1 has five fights that I am looking forward to.  There are also two women’s bouts on the card – one on Fox, one on the prelims – as well as three bouts on Fight Pass to start off the event, but none of those really pique my interest.

Main Card (Fox)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 LW] Rafael dos Anjos vs [#2 LW] Donald Cerrone for the UFC Lightweight Championship

Worth: $25

Why: This is an amazing matchup between two of the worlds most elite lightweights, both at the peak of their game.  After losing a decision to the Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2014, dos Anjos fought four times in the following year, and won all four: T/KO finishes of Ben Henderson and Jason High and thoroughly dominant decisions over Nate Diaz and then champion Antony Pettis.  Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in the meanwhile has won seven straight with four finishes in the course of two years.  Cerrone’s last loss came via a close decision to Dos Anjos, but with the way both fighters have performed since then, a rematch is definitely warranted.

Dos Anjos and Cowboy have had a lot of common opponents, which is understandable when both had 18 fights in the UFC.  What is more interesting that besides handing Cerrone his last loss, dos Anjos also beat the two men who defeated Cerrone prior: Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis.  While Cerrone is not the same fighter he was in the Diaz fight – or even in the first dos Anjos fight – I still believe Rafael will take the rematch and successfully defend his title for the first time.  Another interesting factoid about this fight is that Cowboy is the only lineal champion who is not also the UFC champion, so this fight will unify the last disputed lineage in all of men’s divisions, merging all lineal championships with UFC belts (with the questionable exemption of Jon Jones).

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Nate Marquardt faces C.B. Dollaway this Saturday at UFC on FOX 17. The former number-one contender has fallen on hard times. He is currently 1-5 in his last six fights. Even more distressing is the fact that he is getting knocked out at mucher higher rate and absorbing more strikes than ever before in his career. Is this is a decline in physical ability or is Marquardt simply facing better opposition?

In his last seven fights, six out of his seven opponents have landed over two significant strikes per minute against him (per Fightmetric). Prior to his fight against Tyron Woodley in 2012, only two of Marquardt’s opponents in his Strikeforce/UFC career, had been that successful against him, Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen.

Marquardt has been knocked out in three of his last five bouts. Before he faced Jake Ellenberger in 2013, he had only been knocked out on one occasion, his title fight against Silva. During the same stretch, he scored only one knockout, a come-from-behind win over Woodley. In his preceding seven fights, Marquardt scored knockouts in four of seven bouts. He was getting hit less, landing more knockouts and getting knocked out less. Plus, he was actually facing, on average, higher ranked opposition. The following chart shows the stark difference over the course of his last 14 bouts. Ranking here refers to the Fight Matrix Generated Historical Ranking from the quarter in which the bout took place.

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Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#7DD/#7P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0, -215) vs. [#2/#10P4P] Donald Cerrone (28-6-0, +177)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #15 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#3LW] Anthony Pettis (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#21LW] Nate Diaz (17-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#10WW] Ben Henderson (23-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#72LW] John Makdessi (13-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:44 of round 2
2015-01-18: W vs. [#10WW] Ben Henderson (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-01-03: W vs. [#14LW] Myles Jury (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 280, Donald Cerrone 210
Previous Match-up Record: Rafael dos Anjos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael dos Anjos leads 5-4
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0, -356) vs. [#9] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0, +279)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#5HW+] Stipe Miocic (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#2HW+] Cain Velasquez (13-2-0) via TKO (Slam and Punch) in 3:09 of round 5
2013-05-25: W vs. [#6HW+] Mark Hunt (11-10-1) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick) in 4:18 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#23HW+] Roy Nelson (20-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#32HW+] Stefan Struve (26-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 1
2014-09-05: L vs. [#7HW+] Ben Rothwell (35-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 371, Alistair Overeem 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#9] Michael Johnson (16-9-0, -459) vs. [#21] Nate Diaz (17-10-0, +356)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2015-08-08: L vs. [#8LW] Beneil Dariush (12-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#17LW] Edson Barboza (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-03-08: W vs. [#41LW] Melvin Guillard (32-15-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (1-2-0)
2014-12-13: L vs. [#1LW/#7DD/#7P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2013-11-30: W vs. [#175LW] Gray Maynard (11-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2013-04-20: L vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (22-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:44 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Johnson 133, Nate Diaz 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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For the 13th and final Pay-Per-View event of 2015, UFC is bringing out the big guns.  Headlined by the long-awaited title unification bout between the featherweight champion Jose Aldo and interim champ Conor McGregor, the card also features a middleweight title bout between champion Chris Weidman and the #2 ranked fighter in the division Luke Rockhold.  In addition to the dual title fights, the three remaining fights on the main card all have significant divisional implication, with at least one of them very likely to produce a #1 contender.  This will be one of the rare UFC PPV events where the main card alone meets and exceeds the purchase price.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event:  (C) [#1 FW] Jose Aldo vs (IC) [#3 FW] Conor McGregor for the undisputed UFC Featherweight Championship

Worth: $25

Why: This fight was originally scheduled to take place back in July at UFC 189.  After Jose Aldo suffered a rib injury in training, Chad Mendes stepped up on less than two weeks notice to fight McGregor for an interim title. McGregor stopped Mendes with a second round TKO, and will now look to trade up his interim belt for the real thing.  This actually makes for a more interesting bout than it would have been at 189: back then one could have made a strong argument that McGregor did not really earn his title shot, and jumped to the front of the line ahead of the higher ranked contenders Mendes and Frankie Edgar, without beating any of the top guys in the division.  The win over Mendes silences that argument and lends much more credibility to Conor’s standing as a contender.  The winner of this fight will be the truly undisputed UFC champion, lineal world champion, and #1 in the division.  The winner also won’t be lacking challengers, with Max Holloway taking on Jeremy Stephens on the undercard and Edgar colliding with Mendes at TUF 22 finale just a day before this event.  Of course, should McGregor walk away with the undisputed title, an immediate rematch with Aldo will most likely follow (this is the UFC after all, and Zuffa matchmakers sure love the rematches) – unless the talk of Jose Aldo’s impeding retirement comes true – but I would take that with a very large grain of salt.

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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#7DD/#4P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0, -106) vs. [#3] Conor McGregor (18-2-0, -116)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #4 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2014-02-01: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (16-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-08-03: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (3-0-0)
2015-07-11: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2015-01-18: W vs. [#37FW] Dennis Siver (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-09-27: W vs. [#18LW] Dustin Poirier (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 413, Conor McGregor 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jose Aldo leads 2-1
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Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#1DD/#2P4P] Chris Weidman (13-0-0, -136) vs. [#2] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0, +113)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #10 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#3MW] Vitor Belfort (25-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 1
2014-07-05: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)
2013-12-28: W vs. [#14MW] Anderson Silva (33-6-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 1:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:31 of round 2
2014-11-07: W vs. [#9MW] Michael Bisping (27-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:57 of round 2
2014-04-26: W vs. [#21MW] Tim Boetsch (18-9-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Kimura) in 2:08 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 203, Luke Rockhold 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Yoel Romero (10-1-0, +122) vs. [#5] Ronaldo Souza (22-3-0, -145)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #7 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (3-0-0)
2015-06-27: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:38 of round 3
2014-09-27: W vs. [#16MW] Tim Kennedy (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
2014-04-19: W vs. [#23MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#29MW] Chris Camozzi (22-10-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:33 of round 1
2014-09-05: W vs. [#7MW] Gegard Mousasi (37-6-2) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3
2014-02-15: W vs. [#20LHW] Francis Carmont (24-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yoel Romero 168, Ronaldo Souza 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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The second UFC event in a three-day span, ‘The Ultimate Fighter Season 22’  finale is headlined by a featherweight bout that could determine the next contender to the winner of Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor title unification bout, which takes place the very next day at UFC 194.  I suspect that this placement was intentional, so that the UFC has a suitable substitute in case Aldo or McGregor pull out of their scheduled bout.  Of course that would mean losing the main event, but hey, it’s a TUF Finale card on Fox Sports 1.  Keeping the featherweight title bout at 194 is far more important to the UFC, and this card would still have a strong headliner in Tony Ferguson vs Edson Barboza.  But let’s hope that everyone stays healthy, and both cards remain intact.

Main Event:  [#2 FW] Frankie Edgar vs [#6 FW] Chad Mendes

Worth: $15

Why: This is a top-notch matchup between two of the most elite fighters in the division.  The winner could become the next title contender, depending on a couple of factors.  As Mendes has already lost twice to the reigning champion Aldo, and was stopped by McGregor in their fight for the interim title, should he beat Edgar it’s unlikely that he will face the winner of Aldo-McGregor next.  Edgar on the other hand has already lost to Aldo but never fought McGregor, so if Conor unifies the titles then Edgar is likely to be his next opponent.  The other factor is the Max Holloway vs Jeremy Stephens fight which also takes place the next day at UFC 194: should Holloway win and extend his UFC streak to eight straight, he will likely jump the line ahead of Edgar as the next contender.

Let’s set the featherweight title picture aside for a second, and focus on the actual fight.  It’s a very close matchup of well rounded fighters with similar skill sets. Mendes is the harder puncher of the two, but Edgar is extremely tough, and also seems like a better technician and tactician.  Though at 34, Edgar is four years older than his opponent, he has not yet shown any sign of decline in his recent fights.  I believe this is Edgar’s fight to lose, and hope that he fights for the title next – particularly if McGregor comes out victorious at 194.

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Featherweight (145)
[#2/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (19-4-1, -134) vs. [#6] Chad Mendes (17-3-0, +110)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Chad Mendes is the All-Time #6 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (3-0-0)
2015-05-16: W vs. [#3BW] Urijah Faber (32-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2014-11-22: W vs. [#13FW] Cub Swanson (21-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:56 of round 5
2014-07-06: W vs. [*] B.J. Penn (16-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chad Mendes (1-2-0)
2015-07-11: L vs. [#3FW] Conor McGregor (18-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2015-04-04: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2014-10-25: L vs. [#1FW/#7DD/#4P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 209, Chad Mendes 153
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#5] Tony Ferguson (19-3-0, -184) vs. [#12] Edson Barboza (16-3-0, +156)

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2015-07-15: W vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2015-02-28: W vs. [#23LW] Gleison Tibau (33-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 1
2014-12-06: W vs. [#84LW] Abel Trujillo (12-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (2-1-0)
2015-07-25: W vs. [#56LW] Paul Felder (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-02-22: L vs. [#9LW] Michael Johnson (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-11-22: W vs. [#22LW] Bobby Green (23-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 149, Edson Barboza 139
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#20] Joe Lauzon (25-10-0, +168) vs. [#25] Evan Dunham (16-6-0, -203)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2015-07-25: W vs. [#71LW] Takanori Gomi (35-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:37 of round 1
2015-01-31: L vs. [#10LW] Al Iaquinta (13-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 2
2014-09-05: W vs. [#27LW] Michael Chiesa (13-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (2-1-0)
2015-07-18: W vs. [#39LW] Ross Pearson (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2015-01-03: W vs. [*] Rodrigo Damm (12-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-07-16: L vs. [#12LW] Edson Barboza (16-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Lauzon 139, Evan Dunham 146
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joe Lauzon leads 1-0
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In the second week of December, UFC will be putting on an unprecedented three events in three consecutive days. Kicking off the three-day weekend of MMA action is a Thursday evening Fight Pass event (the last one of the year, and also the first two back-to-back Fight Pass cards with UFN 79). While there are no huge fights on this card, it has exceptional depth, and should put the value of a Fight Pass subscription solidly into the green for the year.

Main Event:  [#7 W115] Rose Namajunas vs [#22 W115] Paige VanZant

Worth: $5

Why: Rose Namajunas and Paige VanZant are both promising prospects in the women’s strawweight division. Despite the discrepancy in rankings, in my opinion this is a very closely matched bout, and the winner will likely be one or two fights away from a title shot – whether they’re ready for it or not.

Fight:  [#27 LW] Michael Chiesa vs  [#32 LW] Jim Miller

Worth: $7.50

Why: A long-time veteran of the UFC’s lightweight division, Jim Miller has always been one of my favorite fighters to watch in action.  Once touted as a contender after building up a 7-win streak between 2009 and 2011, Miller was never able to beat the elite of his division, and now that his career is winding down he has become more of a gatekeeper type.  Miller has lost 2 of his last 3 fights, and fighting on a Fight Pass card is not a good sign for his future.  However he is still a fun action fighter, and so is his opponent Michael Chiesa.  Though Chiesa is still young and has a respectable 5-2 record in the UFC, it is unlikely that he has the athleticism or the skill set to crack the Top 10, so this is a fight without any real implications… but it should be an exciting one to watch nonetheless.

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Women Strawweight (115)
[#7] Rose Namajunas (3-2-0, 115.5lb) vs. [#22] Paige VanZant (6-1-0, 115.5lb)

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2015-10-03: W vs. [#47SW] Angela Hill (2-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:47 of round 1
2014-12-12: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (10-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:26 of round 3
2013-07-13: L vs. [#15SW] Tecia Torres (6-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Paige VanZant (3-0-0)
2015-09-05: W vs. [#53SW] Alex Chambers (5-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:01 of round 3
2015-04-18: W vs. [#32SW] Felice Herrig (10-6-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 30-26)
2014-11-22: W vs. [#134SW] Kailin Curran (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 68, Paige VanZant 96
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (156)
[#27] Michael Chiesa (12-2-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#32] Jim Miller (25-6-0, 155.5lb)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: W vs. [#75LW] Mitch Clarke (11-3-0) via UD (29-26, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-09-05: L vs. [#20LW] Joe Lauzon (25-10-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:14 of round 2
2014-05-24: W vs. [#24LW] Francisco Trinaldo (18-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2015-07-25: W vs. [#53LW] Danny Castillo (17-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2015-04-18: L vs. [#8LW] Beneil Dariush (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-07-16: L vs. [#2LW/#10P4P] Donald Cerrone (28-6-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:31 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chiesa 250, Jim Miller 138
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jim Miller leads 1-0
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Lightweight (156)
[#185] Cody Pfister (12-4-1, 156.0lb) vs. [#206] Sage Northcutt (6-0-0, 155.5lb)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Pfister (2-1-0)
2015-07-11: W vs. [#225LW] Yosdenis Cedeno (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-02-14: L vs. [#108WW] James Moontasri (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:49 of round 2
2014-09-06: W vs. [#1653LW] Brett Glass (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in ? of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Sage Northcutt (3-0-0)
2015-10-03: W vs. [#385LW] Francisco Trevino (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 0:57 of round 1
2015-08-28: W vs. [#1506WW] Rocky Long (21-33-1) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:30 of round 2
2015-06-26: W vs. [#873WW] Gage Duhon (5-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Pfister 152, Sage Northcutt 68
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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