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Fight Matrix

Betting Guide: 6 Key Fighters to Watch at UFC 317

Posted on June 11, 2025 by A. J. Riot

Credit

UFC 317 promises an electrifying night of mixed martial arts action in Las Vegas. The event, held at the T-Mobile Arena, is set for Saturday, June 28, at 10:00 PM EDT. This card features a compelling main event and a high-stakes co-main event.

Additionally, a crucial title eliminator bout will shape the future of the Flyweight division. This guide highlights key fighters whose journeys and recent performances make them compelling watches for an informed audience.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley (06-14-2025)

Posted on June 9, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#6][#6UFC] Joaquin Buckley (21-6-0, -273) vs. [*] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0, +212)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#11WW] Colby Covington (17-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-10-05: W vs. [#16WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#37MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (0-3-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#4MW] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#4WW] Leon Edwards (22-5-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#4WW] Leon Edwards (22-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joaquin Buckley -273 69.54%
Elo K170 Joaquin Buckley 2203.42 +32.44 54.65%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2191.46 +40.90 55.86%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2319.42 +49.08 57.02%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2039.52 +62.39 58.88%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Joaquin Buckley 31.1, Kamaru Usman 38.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 182, Kamaru Usman 602
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 2-1
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#6][#6UFC] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0, -284) vs. [#12][#9UFC] Miranda Maverick (15-5-0, +221)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#9P4P][#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#15FLY] Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#11SW] Amanda Ribas (12-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#31FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#39FLY] Dione Barbosa (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#33FLY] Andrea Lee (13-11-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -284 70.36%
Elo K170 Rose Namajunas 1783.83 +137.77 68.85%
Elo Modified Rose Namajunas 1762.72 +85.46 62.06%
Glicko-1 Rose Namajunas 1759.79 +78.05 61.05%
WHR Rose Namajunas 1718.21 +93.69 63.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rose Namajunas 32.9, Miranda Maverick 27.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 224, Miranda Maverick 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#45][#32UFC] Andre Petroski (13-3-0, +166) vs. [#65][#42UFC] Edmen Shahbazyan (14-5-0, -208)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Petroski (3-0-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#69MW] Rodolfo Vieira (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#181MW] Dylan Budka (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#130MW] Josh Fremd (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (2-1-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#181MW] Dylan Budka (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2024-08-24: L vs. [#51MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2024-03-23: W vs. [#180MW] A.J. Dobson (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edmen Shahbazyan -208 64.24%
Elo K170 Andre Petroski 1737.48 +156.61 71.13%
Elo Modified Andre Petroski 1745.67 +123.15 67.02%
Glicko-1 Andre Petroski 1740.31 +86.32 62.17%
WHR Andre Petroski 1647.43 +61.18 58.71%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Andre Petroski 34.0, Edmen Shahbazyan 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Petroski 119, Edmen Shahbazyan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Andre Petroski leads 2-1
.
Keep Reading

BKFC Ice Wars Presents ‘Battle of the Border’ USA vs. Canada

Posted on June 9, 2025 by Oleg

BKFC Ice Wars will host its first ever event, “Battle of the Borders”, a showdown between U.S. and Canadian ice warriors on Saturday, June 14, 2025 at the Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan. The inaugural event is slated to showcase twelve head-to-head bouts and feature twenty-four elite fighters from the United States and Canada who will battle in “The Ice Box,” a 900-square foot ice enclosure designed specifically for ice fighting. Matchups for this can’t miss event will be announced shortly. Ticket information is available at BKFCIW.com. The Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort is located at 6800 Soaring Eagle Blvd., Mt Pleasant, MI 48858.

Keep Reading

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on June 5, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Keep Reading

UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 – Betting Odds, Tale of the Tape, and Analytical Breakdown

Posted on June 4, 2025 by Vitaliy Vovk

The UFC returns on June 7, 2025, with a high-stakes rematch in the bantamweight division as reigning champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili defends his title against former champ “Sugar” Sean O’Malley at UFC 316 inside Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey.

Their first meeting at UFC 306 was a one-sided display of grappling pressure, where Dvalishvili neutralized O’Malley en route to a dominant unanimous decision. However, with both men claiming full health and renewed preparation, the rematch promises fresh dynamics.

FightMatrix & UFC Stats

According to FightMatrix.com, the current bantamweight rankings are:

  • #1 BW: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
  • #2 BW: Sean OMalley (18-2, 1 NC)

Keep Reading

Vitaliy Vovk

MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Analyst

Founder & President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP) – one of the longest-running and most recognized MMA organizations in Ukraine. Organizer of 100+ MMA events. Contributor, analyst, and Trusted Promoter collaborating with leading global MMA platforms.

https://rfpromo.com/

rfpromo.com/

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 (06-07-2025)

Posted on June 2, 2025 by Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#4DD][#4P4P][#1][#1UFC] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0, -287) vs. [#9DD][#2][#2UFC] Sean OMalley (18-2-0, +233)
Merab Dvalishvili is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #8 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9DD][#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#9BW] Henry Cejudo (16-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#4DD][#4P4P][#1BW] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#11BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#5FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Merab Dvalishvili -287 71.17%
Elo K170 Merab Dvalishvili 2373.66 +245.72 80.44%
Elo Modified Merab Dvalishvili 2329.17 +256.18 81.38%
Glicko-1 Merab Dvalishvili 2409.03 +250.29 80.86%
WHR Merab Dvalishvili 2157.19 +148.06 70.11%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Merab Dvalishvili 34.4, Sean OMalley 30.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Merab Dvalishvili 140, Sean OMalley 266
Previous Match-up Record: Merab Dvalishvili leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#5DD][#5P4P][#1][#1UFC] Julianna Pena (12-5-0, +437) vs. [#10P4P][#7DD][#2][#2UFC] Kayla Harrison (18-1-0, -619)
Julianna Pena is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#3BW] Raquel Pennington (16-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2022-07-30: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2021-12-11: W vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#5BW] Ketlen Vieira (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#11BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:47 of round 2
2023-11-24: W vs. [#5FW] Aspen Ladd (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kayla Harrison -619 82.21%
Elo K170 Julianna Pena 1843.78 +29.76 54.27%
Elo Modified Kayla Harrison 1830.63 +63.71 59.07%
Glicko-1 Kayla Harrison 1864.54 +82.19 61.61%
WHR Kayla Harrison 1894.71 +162.97 71.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Julianna Pena 35.8, Kayla Harrison 34.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julianna Pena 245, Kayla Harrison 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#18][#16UFC] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, +292) vs. [#22][#18UFC] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, -383)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #29 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#27WW] Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#3WW] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#23MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#42MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-02-10: L vs. [*] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#115MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joe Pyfer -383 75.66%
Elo K170 Kelvin Gastelum 1926.30 +200.26 76.00%
Elo Modified Kelvin Gastelum 1918.77 +162.07 71.77%
Glicko-1 Kelvin Gastelum 1964.07 +109.80 65.30%
WHR Kelvin Gastelum 1848.38 +101.64 64.23%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kelvin Gastelum 33.6, Joe Pyfer 28.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 350, Joe Pyfer 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

UFC 316: Fight Predictions, Betting Picks & Quick Analysis (June 7, 2025)

Posted on June 2, 2025 by Vitaliy Vovk

[#1 W135] Julianna Pena 12-5-0 vs [#2 W135] Kayla Harrison 18-1-0

Pick: Kayla Harrison (TKO/UD)

Analysis: Peña is a seasoned grappler but coming off a long layoff. Harrison, a former Olympic judoka, dominates in the clinch and on the mat.

Recommended bet: Harrison ITD or Harrison TKO/UD

Keep Reading

Vitaliy Vovk

MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Analyst

Founder & President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP) – one of the longest-running and most recognized MMA organizations in Ukraine. Organizer of 100+ MMA events. Contributor, analyst, and Trusted Promoter collaborating with leading global MMA platforms.

https://rfpromo.com/

rfpromo.com/

Charles Oliviera Predicts UFC 317 Clash With Ilia Topuria Won’t Last Long

Posted on May 28, 2025 by A. J. Riot

Brazilian UFC star Charles Oliveira takes on Ilia Topuria in the big fight at UFC 317 on June 28th in Nevada, and the 35-year-old, who saw off Michael Chandler last November to secure his 35th win, believes he’ll make light work of his unbeaten Georgian-Spanish opponent.

It’s now 17 years since the former undisputed Lightweight champion made his UFC debut in Sao Paulo,  and he will hope that he can take care of a fighter seven years his junior.

UFC fans who want to bet on this fight, or indeed any of the other bouts on the undercard, can make the most of the key info here that helps bettors identify the best sportsbook app to use for their wager, thereby helping to maximize any potential payout.

Keep Reading

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber (05-31-2025)

Posted on May 26, 2025 by Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9P4P][#4][#4UFC] Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0, -242) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Maycee Barber (14-2-0, +196)
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#6FLY] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#7P4P][#8DD][#2FLY] Manon Fiorot (12-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#10FLY] Taila Santos (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#23FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#11SW] Amanda Ribas (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-25: W vs. [#35FLY] Andrea Lee (13-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Erin Blanchfield -242 67.68%
Elo K170 Erin Blanchfield 1906.59 +66.18 59.41%
Elo Modified Erin Blanchfield 1891.88 +103.03 64.41%
Glicko-1 Erin Blanchfield 1911.05 +136.33 68.67%
WHR Erin Blanchfield 1751.23 +59.89 58.53%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Erin Blanchfield 26.0, Maycee Barber 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Erin Blanchfield 210, Maycee Barber 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#8][#8UFC] Mateusz Gamrot (24-3-0, -166) vs. [#42][#24UFC] Ludovit Klein (23-4-1, +138)
Mateusz Gamrot is the All-Time #39 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Gamrot (2-1-0)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#7LW] Dan Hooker (24-12-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#27WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#16LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ludovit Klein (3-0-0)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#164LW] Roosevelt Roberts (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#63LW] Thiago Moises (19-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#486BW] A.J. Cunningham (11-5-0) via TKO (Front Kick to the Body and Punches) in 4:36 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateusz Gamrot -166 59.76%
Elo K170 Mateusz Gamrot 2048.58 +143.23 69.52%
Elo Modified Mateusz Gamrot 2059.16 +165.11 72.12%
Glicko-1 Mateusz Gamrot 2126.82 +206.41 76.64%
WHR Mateusz Gamrot 1988.49 +172.34 72.95%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mateusz Gamrot 34.4, Ludovit Klein 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Gamrot 287, Ludovit Klein 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#20][#16UFC] Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1, -184) vs. [#63][#30UFC] Bruno Lopes (14-1-0, +153)

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Jacoby (1-2-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#33LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:44 of round 3
2024-06-08: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-16: L vs. [#24LHW] Alonzo Menifield (16-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Lopes (3-0-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#112LHW] Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-13: W vs. [#152LHW] Mikheil Sazhiniani (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2024-01-27: W vs. [#189LHW] Marcos Brigagao (17-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:58 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dustin Jacoby -184 62.10%
Elo K170 Dustin Jacoby 1712.78 +48.51 56.93%
Elo Modified Dustin Jacoby 1747.71 +75.07 60.64%
Glicko-1 Dustin Jacoby 1797.21 +80.20 61.34%
WHR Dustin Jacoby 1766.68 +111.90 65.57%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dustin Jacoby 37.1, Bruno Lopes 32.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Jacoby 168, Bruno Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

The Ultimate Fighter 33 – Fighter Breakdown

Posted on May 26, 2025 by Jason
Flyweights
W-L-D Last Fight Math Avg
[#53] Eduardo Henrique 14-2-0 2024-08-23 1622
[#70] Idiris Alibi 10-0-0 2024-05-18 1675
[#107] Furkatbek Yokubov 15-4-0 2024-11-08 1493
[#126] Imanol Rodriguez 5-0-0 2024-09-22 1429
[#164] Roybert Echeverria 10-2-0 2024-11-17 1431
[#231] Tumelo Manyamala 6-1-0 2024-05-09 1430
[#266] Arshiyan Memon 6-0-0 2024-08-31 1430
[*] Joseph Morales 12-2-0 2023-02-03 1594
Welterweights
W-L-D Last Fight Math Avg
[#155] Jefferson Creighton 11-3-1 2024-08-24 1556
[#165] Richard Martins 9-1-0 2024-11-22 1616
[#170] Rodrigo Sezinando 8-1-0 2024-11-15 1559
[#191] Andreeas Binder 10-2-0 2024-12-08 1548
[#237LW] Daniel Donchenko 11-2-0 2024-11-23 1526
[#298] Alejandro Sanchez 15-3-0 2024-08-02 1506
[#321] Matt Dixon 11-1-0 2024-04-19 1491
[#378] Diego Bianchini 9-1-0 2024-03-08 1486



The Math Avg is the average of the four mathematical rating systems.

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 22, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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UFC Vegas 107 Co-Main Event Preview: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ľudovít Klein

Posted on May 20, 2025 by Vitaliy Vovk

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ľudovít Klein – Full Breakdown Ahead of May 31st fight in Las Vegas

Record & Experience

[#8 LW] Mateusz Gamrot (24-3, 1 NC)

A former two-division KSW champion, Gamrot has compiled a 7-3 record in the UFC since his debut in 2020. His victories include wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev, and Jalin Turner. His most recent bout was a split decision loss to Dan Hooker at UFC 305 in August 2024, snapping a three-fight winning streak.

[#42 LW] Ľudovít Klein (23-4-1)

Klein enters this fight on a four-fight winning streak, with recent victories over Roosevelt Roberts, Thiago Moises, Ignacio Bahamondes, and AJ Cunningham. Since moving up to lightweight, he has gone 6-0-1, showcasing his adaptability and growth in the division.

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Vitaliy Vovk

MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Analyst

Founder & President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP) – one of the longest-running and most recognized MMA organizations in Ukraine. Organizer of 100+ MMA events. Contributor, analyst, and Trusted Promoter collaborating with leading global MMA platforms.

https://rfpromo.com/

rfpromo.com/

Dakota Ditcheva set to make her MMA return

Posted on May 18, 2025 by A. J. Riot

Dakota Ditcheva, one of the most fearless female MMA fighters in the world, is set to return to the PFL cage. After spending two consecutive seasons in the European and Global format, PFL’s brightest female star is now worried about going so long in between fights

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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on May 15, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut).  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales (05-17-2025)

Posted on May 12, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#12][#10UFC] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0, +442) vs. [#14][#11UFC] Michael Morales (17-0-0, -648)
Gilbert Burns is the All-Time #18 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (0-3-0)
2024-09-07: L vs. [#3WW] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)
2024-03-09: L vs. [#6DD][#7P4P][#1WW] Jack Della Maddalena (18-2-0) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 3:43 of round 3
2023-05-06: L vs. [#2WW] Belal Muhammad (24-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Morales (3-0-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#30WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-11-18: W vs. [#36WW] Jake Matthews (21-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#42WW] Max Griffin (20-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michael Morales -648 82.44%
Elo K170 Michael Morales 1990.74 +16.07 52.31%
Elo Modified Michael Morales 1970.83 +20.90 53.00%
Glicko-1 Michael Morales 2040.24 +47.82 56.84%
WHR Michael Morales 1892.54 +42.19 56.04%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Gilbert Burns 38.8, Michael Morales 25.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Burns 252, Michael Morales 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#34MW][#27UFCMW] Paul Craig (17-9-1, +352) vs. [#48][#27UFC] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1, -484)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (0-3-0)
2024-11-16: L vs. [#33MW] Bo Nickal (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-18: L vs. [#14MW] Brendan Allen (24-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rodolfo Bellato (2-0-1)
2025-02-08: D vs. [#40LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2023-12-02: W vs. [#117MW] Ihor Potieria (25-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2
2023-10-03: W vs. [#359MW] Murtaza Talha Ali (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rodolfo Bellato -484 78.93%
Elo K170 Paul Craig 1618.37 +5.61 50.81%
Elo Modified Paul Craig 1662.73 +16.45 52.37%
Glicko-1 Rodolfo Bellato 1676.47 +9.38 51.35%
WHR Rodolfo Bellato 1600.97 +10.00 51.44%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Paul Craig 37.5, Rodolfo Bellato 29.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 182, Rodolfo Bellato 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#97FW][#47UFCFW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0, +112) vs. [#114FW][#56UFCFW] Mairon Santos (15-1-0, -138)

Last 3 Fights: Sodiq Yusuff (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#6FW] Diego Lopes (26-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1
2023-10-14: L vs. [#48FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 49-46)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#573FW] Don Shainis (17-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:30 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mairon Santos (3-0-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#254FW] Francis Marshall (8-3-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#287FW] Kaan Ofli (11-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:30 of round 2
2023-03-24: W vs. [#290LW] Rafael Barbosa (15-5-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mairon Santos -138 55.14%
Elo K170 Mairon Santos 1746.49 +56.61 58.08%
Elo Modified Sodiq Yusuff 1722.15 +37.30 55.35%
Glicko-1 Sodiq Yusuff 1748.08 +118.47 66.42%
WHR Sodiq Yusuff 1641.69 +75.37 60.68%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sodiq Yusuff 32.0, Mairon Santos 24.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sodiq Yusuff 399, Mairon Santos 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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