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The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episodes 1 & 2 Recaps

Posted on September 24, 2012 by Oleg


I will be honest: I was not planning on doing the usual episode recaps for Season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter. Even after some kind reminders from our readers, I was at best lukewarm to the idea. The reason for this is that I believe the Ultimate Fighter series has ran its course; the format has become quite stale, and after fifteen seasons it went from ‘must watch TV’ for me to being just another show buried on the DVR that I might get to later in the week, if time allows. And if the sagging ratings are any indication, I am not the only UFC viewer who feels this way. After attempting a switch to the ‘TUF Live’ format in Season 15, UFC and FX didn’t find the live production to be cost effective and went back to the same tired format this season. As a result, the viewership is at its lowest point in the existence of the series, failing to break 1 million viewers in the first two episodes. Let’s face it, it’s very difficult for any show to keep its audience for that many seasons. Very few television series remain on air for this long, and I guess ‘TUF’ just doesn’t have the timeless appeal of shows like The Simpsons.

Nevertheless, I decided to take a look at the rankings of the Season 16 cast, and the results surprised me in two ways: first, the overall rankings of fighters who made it into the house were higher than I expected based on other recent seasons, and also there was a large discrepancy in the average ranking of the fighters picked for the two teams. And so, I am now actually curious to see how this tournament will break down. So here we are, a little late with our recap of Epsidose 1 & 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs Team Nelson – or ‘TUF 16’, for short. Though some of the contestants are ranked in different weight divisions, they are all competing as welterweights on the show.

Keep reading to see how they stack up, with Team Carwin up 1-0 after the first team-vs-team matchup.  Better late than never!

Keep Reading

UFC 152 / Odds vs. Ratings

Posted on September 23, 2012 by Jason

If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.

I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers.  This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.  Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.

Before going in to that, a side note.  I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100).  Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.

Another side note:  A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well.  With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct.  Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.

Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite “Who won”
Jones vs. Belfort Jones (-856 / Massive) Jones (3.59x^ / Massive) Tie
Johnson vs. Benavidez Benavidez (-261 / Moderate) Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small) Ratings
Bisping vs. Stann Bisping (-198 / Small) Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em) Gamblers
Hamill vs. Hollett Hamill (-357 / Large) Hamill (1.59x / Moderate) Tie
Swanson vs. Oliveira Oliveira (-247 / Moderate) Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) Ratings
Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac Pokrajac (-158 / Small) Pokrajac (1.22x / Small) Tie
Grant vs. Dunham Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em) Grant (1.26x / Small) Ratings
Pierson vs. Benoist Benoist (-217 / Small) Pierson (1.3x / Small) Ratings
Brimage vs. Hettes Hettes (-446 / Large) Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) Ratings
Gagnon vs. Watson Watson (-188 / Small) Gagnon (1.22x / Small) Ratings
Noke vs. Brenneman Brenneman (-224 / Moderate) Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large) Gamblers

^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.

Current MMA Rankings Updated

Posted on September 23, 2012 by Jason

Current MMA Rankings Updated

Posted on September 16, 2012 by Jason

MMA Rankings Updated: 9/9/2012

Posted on September 9, 2012 by Jason

Rankings – Page Enhancement

Posted on September 5, 2012 by Jason

Fighter ages will now be included in the ranking pages, to the right of the fighter names.

This info is not complete and probably never will be, though upon next update, it should be much better than it currently is.

We will NOT be maintaining this data as we use Sherdog for our resource.  Any missing birthdates should be forwarded to them.

MMA Rankings Updated: 9/1/2012

Posted on September 1, 2012 by Jason
  • The All-Time rankings will be refreshed sometime this weekend.

This Friday — In a Heavyweight Matchup of Once Relevant Fighters

Posted on August 26, 2012 by Jason

[poll id=”14″]

MMA Rankings Updated: 8/26/2012

Posted on August 26, 2012 by Jason

MMA Rankings Updated: 8/19/2012

Posted on August 19, 2012 by Jason

MMA Rankings Updated: 8/12/2012

Posted on August 11, 2012 by Jason

MMA Rankings Updated: 8/4/2012

Posted on August 4, 2012 by Jason

MMA Rankings Updated: 7/29/2012

Posted on July 29, 2012 by Jason

Ranking Debate: Mike Russow (with Polls)

Posted on July 26, 2012 by Jason

Recently, Sherdog updated their rankings again and I was quite surprised to see Mike Russow at #10 in the Heavyweight rankings.  I thought I was dreaming last month when I saw him in their Top 10, but now I know that it’s for real.  A dream it was not.

It’s quite common to see human polled subjective rankings seemingly “grab” a fighter at random to slide into an open final spot.  After all, Russow didn’t get into the Top 10 via some big win, nor did he accomplish a ranking boost due to a loss (see: Michael Bisping).  For Russow, it was Carwin’s inactivity-fueled ejection from the list that let Russow mysteriously slide into the #10 position.

Keep Reading

MMA Rankings Updated: 7/22/2012

Posted on July 22, 2012 by Jason

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