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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo (11-16-2024)
Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1, +218) vs. [#5] Petr Yan (17-5-0, -272)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (3-0-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#9BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-02: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Yadong Song (21-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#1BW/#5DD/#6P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Petr Yan | -272 | 69.92% | |
| Elo K170 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2155.09 | +147.41 | 70.03% |
| Elo Modified | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2120.13 | +51.29 | 57.33% |
| Glicko-1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2192.42 | +59.95 | 58.54% |
| WHR | Deiveson Figueiredo | 2017.27 | +26.21 | 53.76% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 112, Petr Yan 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#3/#9DD/#10P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-4-0, -201) vs. [#7] Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0, +165)
Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (25-3-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#11FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#6SW] Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)
Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#11SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#5SW] Tecia Pennington (14-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#12SW] Lupita Godinez (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Xiaonan Yan | -201 | 63.89% | |
| Elo K170 | Xiaonan Yan | 1767.49 | +76.09 | 60.78% |
| Elo Modified | Xiaonan Yan | 1758.65 | +56.11 | 58.00% |
| Glicko-1 | Xiaonan Yan | 1720.49 | +24.72 | 53.55% |
| WHR | Xiaonan Yan | 1637.38 | +36.91 | 55.29% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Xiaonan Yan 224, Tabatha Ricci 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#63] Mingyang Zhang (17-6-0, -316) vs. [#69] Osman Diaz (9-2-0, +245)
Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#105LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#121LHW] George Tokkos (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-04-30: W vs. [NA] Changsheng Huo (2-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Osman Diaz (2-1-0)
2024-05-17: W vs. [#213LHW] Bevon Lewis (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 2
2024-03-08: W vs. [#90LHW] Chuck Campbell (7-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-07-26: L vs. [#21MW] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mingyang Zhang | -316 | 72.37% | |
| Elo K170 | Mingyang Zhang | 1582.94 | +100.61 | 64.09% |
| Elo Modified | Mingyang Zhang | 1582.51 | +74.07 | 60.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Mingyang Zhang | 1657.38 | +104.18 | 64.56% |
| WHR | Osman Diaz | 1604.80 | +42.56 | 56.09% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mingyang Zhang 280, Osman Diaz 190
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Some interesting picks this week…
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic (11-16-2024)
Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Jon Jones (27-1-0, -687) vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0, +465)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #31 ranked Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#3HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2020-02-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Dominick Reyes (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#34HW+] Thiago Santos (22-13-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#2HW+/#9P4P] Francis Ngannou (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-08-15: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-08-17: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jon Jones | -687 | 83.14% | |
| Elo K170 | Jon Jones | 2462.88 | +195.16 | 75.46% |
| Elo Modified | Jon Jones | 2399.49 | +154.72 | 70.90% |
| Glicko-1 | Jon Jones | 2500.75 | +150.06 | 70.34% |
| WHR | Jon Jones | 2262.89 | +141.53 | 69.31% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 623, Stipe Miocic 1330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stipe Miocic leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#3] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, -254) vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0, +205)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #36 ranked Absolute fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#12LW] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#107WW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Charles Oliveira | -254 | 68.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Charles Oliveira | 2263.99 | +192.02 | 75.13% |
| Elo Modified | Charles Oliveira | 2274.77 | +241.48 | 80.06% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Oliveira | 2383.15 | +289.98 | 84.15% |
| WHR | Charles Oliveira | 2180.90 | +312.77 | 85.82% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 217, Michael Chandler 735
Previous Match-up Record: Charles Oliveira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Oliveira leads 4-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#23] Paul Craig (17-8-1, +672) vs. [#65] Bo Nickal (6-0-0, -1136)
Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-18: L vs. [#11MW] Brendan Allen (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#24MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#93MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#495WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#207MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Bo Nickal | -1136 | 87.65% | |
| Elo K170 | Paul Craig | 1740.81 | +161.64 | 71.72% |
| Elo Modified | Paul Craig | 1762.82 | +102.02 | 64.28% |
| Glicko-1 | Paul Craig | 1786.76 | +177.19 | 73.50% |
| WHR | Paul Craig | 1723.30 | +224.91 | 78.49% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 196, Bo Nickal 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates (11-09-2024)
Welterweight (170)
[#27] Neil Magny (29-12-0, +456) vs. [#45] Carlos Prates (20-6-0, -660)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #39 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#15WW] Michael Morales (17-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:39 of round 1
2024-01-20: W vs. [#81WW] Mike Malott (11-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-08-19: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (15-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#61WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#203WW] Charlie Radtke (9-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#157WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:03 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Carlos Prates | -660 | 82.83% | |
| Elo K170 | Carlos Prates | 1897.23 | +53.88 | 57.69% |
| Elo Modified | Carlos Prates | 1909.10 | +88.61 | 62.48% |
| Glicko-1 | Carlos Prates | 2006.91 | +166.86 | 72.32% |
| WHR | Carlos Prates | 1916.29 | +180.82 | 73.90% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 77, Carlos Prates 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#30] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0, +112) vs. [#31] Miles Johns (16-2-0, -133)
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-16: W vs. [#309BW] Brian Kelleher (24-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:42 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#100BW] Trevin Jones (15-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Miles Johns (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#52BW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#46BW] Cody Gibson (21-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#203BW] Dan Argueta (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Miles Johns | -133 | 54.75% | |
| Elo K170 | Miles Johns | 1857.19 | +94.16 | 63.23% |
| Elo Modified | Miles Johns | 1828.28 | +78.08 | 61.05% |
| Glicko-1 | Miles Johns | 1852.41 | +58.73 | 58.37% |
| WHR | Miles Johns | 1791.94 | +155.62 | 71.01% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Garbrandt 210, Miles Johns 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#17] Denise Gomes (9-3-0, -446) vs. [#31] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0, +327)
Last 3 Fights: Denise Gomes (2-1-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#44FLY] Eduarda Moura (10-1-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#10SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#42SW] Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8SW] Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#113SW] Diana Belbita (15-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#37SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Denise Gomes | -446 | 77.71% | |
| Elo K170 | Denise Gomes | 1551.78 | +92.85 | 63.05% |
| Elo Modified | Denise Gomes | 1527.22 | +62.90 | 58.96% |
| Glicko-1 | Denise Gomes | 1527.15 | +96.54 | 63.54% |
| WHR | Denise Gomes | 1496.94 | +142.76 | 69.46% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Denise Gomes 154, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi (11-02-2024)
Flyweight (125)
[#3] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2, -159) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-1-0, +131)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #42 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#4FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#49FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brandon Moreno | -159 | 58.64% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Moreno | 1898.72 | +6.45 | 50.93% |
| Elo Modified | Brandon Moreno | 1965.97 | +147.38 | 70.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Brandon Moreno | 2075.69 | +212.19 | 77.23% |
| WHR | Brandon Moreno | 1986.22 | +183.94 | 74.25% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 252, Amir Albazi 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-1
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#4] Rose Namajunas (13-6-0, +106) vs. [#5] Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0, -128)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #45 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#16FLY] Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#12FLY] Amanda Ribas (12-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#6FLY] Taila Santos (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#10FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Erin Blanchfield | -128 | 53.63% | |
| Elo K170 | Rose Namajunas | 1890.84 | +90.95 | 62.80% |
| Elo Modified | Rose Namajunas | 1850.87 | +46.65 | 56.67% |
| Glicko-1 | Rose Namajunas | 1839.32 | +3.74 | 50.54% |
| WHR | Rose Namajunas | 1776.05 | +55.17 | 57.87% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 112, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, +144) vs. [#56] Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0, -174)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #27 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#27HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#9HW+] Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#25HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#73HW+] Karl Williams (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#137HW+] Austen Lane (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#100HW+] Eduardo Neves (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jhonata Diniz | -174 | 60.77% | |
| Elo K170 | Derrick Lewis | 1844.56 | +230.49 | 79.03% |
| Elo Modified | Derrick Lewis | 1848.44 | +178.08 | 73.59% |
| Glicko-1 | Derrick Lewis | 1903.66 | +234.52 | 79.42% |
| WHR | Derrick Lewis | 1773.72 | +215.45 | 77.56% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 175, Jhonata Diniz 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway (10-26-2024)
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#9P4P] Ilia Topuria (15-0-0, -259) vs. [#2/#5DD] Max Holloway (26-7-0, +196)
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #3 ranked Featherweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#3FW] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Ilia Topuria | -259 | 68.10% | |
| Elo K170 | Max Holloway | 2389.60 | +186.18 | 74.49% |
| Elo Modified | Max Holloway | 2334.27 | +172.79 | 73.00% |
| Glicko-1 | Max Holloway | 2442.70 | +198.75 | 75.84% |
| WHR | Ilia Topuria | 2182.45 | +12.38 | 51.78% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 252, Max Holloway 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0, -221) vs. [#6] Robert Whittaker (26-7-0, +181)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#3WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#17MW] Kevin Holland (26-12-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [#10WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#42MW] Ikram Aliskerov (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#3P4P] Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Khamzat Chimaev | -221 | 65.92% | |
| Elo K170 | Robert Whittaker | 2209.78 | +0.38 | 50.06% |
| Elo Modified | Robert Whittaker | 2190.84 | +12.69 | 51.83% |
| Glicko-1 | Robert Whittaker | 2273.79 | +18.20 | 52.62% |
| WHR | Khamzat Chimaev | 2062.13 | +3.35 | 50.48% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khamzat Chimaev 371, Robert Whittaker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#18] Lerone Murphy (14-0-1, -206) vs. [#20] Dan Ige (18-8-0, +171)
Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#37FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#132FW] Joshua Culibao (12-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#71FW] Gabriel Santos (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#6FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#39FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2023-09-23: L vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Lerone Murphy | -206 | 64.59% | |
| Elo K170 | Lerone Murphy | 1980.63 | +186.55 | 74.53% |
| Elo Modified | Lerone Murphy | 1925.45 | +152.96 | 70.69% |
| Glicko-1 | Lerone Murphy | 1953.50 | +115.21 | 66.00% |
| WHR | Lerone Murphy | 1879.30 | +110.66 | 65.41% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 161, Dan Ige 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez (10-19-2024)
Middleweight (185)
[#17] Michel Pereira (32-11-0, +125) vs. [#25] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0, -152)
Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#80MW] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#41MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-10-14: W vs. [#49MW] Andre Petroski (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#53MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#48MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-09-17: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -152 | 57.57% | |
| Elo K170 | Michel Pereira | 2007.89 | +128.77 | 67.73% |
| Elo Modified | Michel Pereira | 1975.95 | +71.18 | 60.10% |
| Glicko-1 | Michel Pereira | 2046.14 | +87.61 | 62.35% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 1906.78 | +51.07 | 57.30% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 168, Anthony Hernandez 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#15] Kyler Phillips (12-2-0, -347) vs. [#16] Rob Font (20-8-0, +268)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#44BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [*] Marcelo Rojo (17-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:48 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#56BW] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kyler Phillips | -347 | 74.07% | |
| Elo K170 | Kyler Phillips | 1860.64 | +28.08 | 54.03% |
| Elo Modified | Kyler Phillips | 1882.25 | +86.67 | 62.22% |
| Glicko-1 | Kyler Phillips | 1954.83 | +75.99 | 60.76% |
| WHR | Kyler Phillips | 1866.25 | +145.47 | 69.79% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyler Phillips 224, Rob Font 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kyler Phillips leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#15] Charles Johnson (16-6-0, -223) vs. [#258] Su Mudaerji (16-6-0, +182)
Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (3-0-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#32FLY] Joshua Van (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#110BW] Jake Hadley (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#79FLY] Azat Maksum (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#22FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Charles Johnson | -223 | 66.06% | |
| Elo K170 | Charles Johnson | 1727.60 | +338.88 | 87.55% |
| Elo Modified | Charles Johnson | 1731.40 | +327.51 | 86.82% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Johnson | 1798.25 | +406.55 | 91.22% |
| WHR | Charles Johnson | 1634.06 | +309.95 | 85.62% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Johnson 98, Su Mudaerji 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants (10-19-2024)
Heavyweight (265)
[*] Francis Ngannou (17-3-0, -304) vs. [#10] Renan Ferreira (13-3-0, +227)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-03-27: W vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Renan Ferreira (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#14HW+] Ryan Bader (31-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1
2023-11-24: W vs. [#11HW+] Denis Goltsov (35-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-08-18: W vs. [#77HW+] Maurice Greene (11-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Francis Ngannou | -304 | 71.10% | |
| Elo K170 | Francis Ngannou | 2348.99 | +414.44 | 91.58% |
| Elo Modified | Francis Ngannou | 2324.70 | +383.08 | 90.07% |
| Glicko-1 | Francis Ngannou | 2461.72 | +393.23 | 90.58% |
| WHR | Francis Ngannou | 2176.44 | +203.35 | 76.32% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 1001, Renan Ferreira 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#5P4P] Cristiane Justino (27-2-0, +101) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Larissa Pacheco (23-4-0, -127)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#5FW] Cat Zingano (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#4FW] Arlene Blencowe (16-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-11-12: W vs. [#15FW] Sinead Kavanagh (9-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (3-0-0)
2023-11-24: W vs. [#6FW] Marina Mokhnatkina (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-08-18: W vs. [#10FW] Olena Kolesnyk (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1
2023-06-16: W vs. [#25FW] Amber Leibrock (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Larissa Pacheco | -127 | 52.93% | |
| Elo K170 | Cristiane Justino | 1963.55 | +176.07 | 73.37% |
| Elo Modified | Cristiane Justino | 1967.15 | +155.03 | 70.94% |
| Glicko-1 | Cristiane Justino | 2042.11 | +203.17 | 76.31% |
| WHR | Cristiane Justino | 1987.08 | +184.79 | 74.34% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 378, Larissa Pacheco 330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#7] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0, -597) vs. [#14] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0, +391)
Johnny Eblen is the All-Time #35 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eblen (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#10LHW] Impa Kasanganay (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#14MW] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-02-04: W vs. [#31MW] Anatoly Tokov (32-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Fabian Edwards (2-1-0)
2024-03-22: W vs. [#29MW] Aaron Jeffery (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#7MW] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-05-12: W vs. [*] Gegard Mousasi (49-9-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Johnny Eblen | -597 | 80.78% | |
| Elo K170 | Johnny Eblen | 2138.82 | +253.61 | 81.15% |
| Elo Modified | Johnny Eblen | 2065.88 | +186.25 | 74.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Johnny Eblen | 2146.28 | +197.48 | 75.71% |
| WHR | Johnny Eblen | 2005.68 | +207.98 | 76.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Eblen 238, Fabian Edwards 211
Previous Match-up Record: Johnny Eblen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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