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Fight Matrix

Division Dominance (Quasi-P4P)

Posted on March 13, 2008 by Jason

As an experiment, I decided to create a “division dominance” list with the current rating set.  At its core, it is a hybrid of a pound-for-pound list and a current snapshot of the divisional rankings.  It basically says, which fighters are the most dominant over their own respective divisions.

Division Dominance List

Rank Fighter Record Division Dominance Points
1 Anderson Silva 21-4-0
258
2 Fedor Emelianenko 27-1-0
255
3 Quinton Jackson 28-6-0
226
4 Georges St. Pierre 15-2-0
215
5 Randy Couture 16-8-0
198
6 Norifumi Yamamoto 17-1-0
197
7 Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 31-4-1
186
8 Yasuhiro Urushitani 14-3-5
185
9 Urijah Faber 20-1-0
176
10 Miguel Torres 17-1-0
172

If you like this list, come in the forum and let us know!

The Quality Performance Decay (QPD)

Posted on March 11, 2008 by Jason

Since the quality performance decay (QPD) is now working as intended, I figured I would do a quick write-up with regards to its purpose.

In short, the QPD is meant to gradually decrease the rating of a fighter who has not necessarily been a victim of losing, or inactivity, but one who has not recently had a performance that’s indicative of a fighter of that rating. It is important to note that a quality performance is relative to the fighter’s rating.

Without digging too deep into the decay, in order to register a quality performance, a fighter must beat an opponent at least 1/3* of their pre-bout rating, draw against an opponent at least 1/2* of their pre-bout rating, or lose a split/majority decision against an opponent at least 2/3* of their rating. *Values used are approximate.  Note: UFC/PRIDE title bouts have/had special considerations.

Please remember, that even if a fighter draws or loses a close decision to a lower rated fighter and registers a quality performance, they will still lose rating points as a result of the bout’s outcome.

If a fighter has went 360 days without a quality performance, they go into a mode of QPD. This decay is not nearly as strong as the inactivity decay, but is a bit less forgiving than a fighter coming back from inactivity as an inactive fighter can (in some scenarios) redeem a bit of their lost rating by performing well against a quality opponent in their comeback bout. The reason for that forgiveness is that we can gauge a fighter in QPD, but not one who is inactive.

Once a fighter in this QPD registers a quality performance, they are taken off of the decay mode. It is also important to note that since a quality performance is relative, as their rating slips, the requirements on breaking free from the decay are lessened.

The QPD is one of the main advantages of the rating system. It is gradual, and no fighter is immune. Many ranking sites may forget about certain fighters who have been bottom-feeding, or simply leave them at their position due to prestige. They may also over- or under-correct these fighters. This is not the case here. The decay treats everyone equally, as it is gradual, and proportionate.

Notable fighters currently in the QPD are: Fedor Emelianenko, Josh Barnett, Mirko Filipovic, Wanderlei Silva, Matt Lindland, Ricardo Arona, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Frank Trigg, Takanori Gomi, and quite a few others.

Rating Set #14 launched.

Posted on March 11, 2008 by Jason

Ratings as of March 11, 2008

Notable Changes

  • Rating code updated to 1.11 which includes the correction of quality performance penalty application as well as the strengthening of the penalty rate.
  • Approximately 100 old bouts added to the database.

The overall changes to the rankings are very minor.

Rating Code Update (Mid-Week)

Posted on March 10, 2008 by Jason

Rating code updated to version 1.11

  • Re-worked quality performance decay.  Before, fighters in a quality performance decay were getting penalized with their full decay before each bout.  This was not intended.  Now, fighters are penalized with partial decays, equivalent to the time elapsed since the previous bout.  In addition, the decay rate was strengthened.

A rating set will be released sometime between now and Wednesday, once everything is tested and finalized.

Rating Set #13 released.

Posted on March 9, 2008 by Jason

Ratings as of March 9, 2008.  Only minor changes have occurred since the last release.

  • Recent shows added to database, such as Cage Rage (3/8), American Fight League (3/7), etc.
  • Various division corrections.
  • Some old bouts added to database.

Rating Set #12 released w/ version 1.1 update

Posted on March 5, 2008 by Jason

Ratings include 1.1 update which is detailed in the previous post, as well as results from the Sengoku card.

Notable Changes

  • Josh Barnett re-enters the Heavyweight rankings at #6.  However, he is in immediate danger of slipping to #7 as it has been quite sometime since he has performed well against a quality opponent, relative to his status.
  • Takanori Gomi re-enters the Lightweight rankings at #1.  He too, is in a quality performance decay, but has a fair lead over the #2 ranked Calvancanti.  However, a dominant win over Aoki would likely propel Calvancanti over Gomi as #1 in the division.

Version 1.1 of ratings to debut on 3/5

Posted on March 4, 2008 by Jason

After the Sengoku card, version 1.1 of the rating system will be live. This is a relatively major update and will affect parts of all divisions. However, the Top 15-20 fighters in divisions from Lightweight and up, are relatively untouched. Improvements will mainly be seen in the lower weight classes, as well as the Women rankings.

Notable Changes

  • Fighters rated above the starter debut level can no longer accrue points by defeating fighters without a quality performance. A similar protocol was in place, but it was improved upon. This change will put more emphasis on beating experienced, proven opponents.
  • A “sticky” zone has been placed from the starter debut level, to 2x this level. In other words, fighters who are within this zone, or fall through the zone, will experience a more gradual descent to ensure separation between experienced “journeymen” and fighters who are very early in their career. This results in better handling of mediocre veteran fighters and those in the lower weight divisions. The effects of the “sticky” zone will not be in place if a fighter loses to an opponent below the starter debut level.
  • Inactive and quality performance penalties were softened for those falling within, or below the aforementioned “sticky” zone.
  • Bug fix with regards to fighters being penalized when coming back from inactivity.  Some fighters were over-penalized if they did not return with a quality performance.

UFC 82: Ranking Impact

Posted on March 3, 2008 by Oleg

Here is how UFC 82 affected the the Top-10 rankings across all divisions:

Heavyweight and above:  Andrei Arlovski moves up to #5 with a TKO stoppage of Jake O’Brien.  Heath Herring moves up to #8 for his first Top-10 appearance in quite some time, while Cheick Kongo drops to #10.

Rank ↑ ↓ Fighter Record Points
1   Fedor Emelianenko
Last Fight: 12/31/2007 [Yarennoka]
27-1-0
520
2   Randy Couture
Last Fight: 8/25/2007 [UFC]
16-8-0
399
3   Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Last Fight: 2/2/2008 [UFC]
31-4-1
374
4   Fabricio Werdum
Last Fight: 1/19/2008 [UFC]
10-3-1
235
5 3 Andrei Arlovski
Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]
12-5-0
193
6   Gabriel Gonzaga
Last Fight: 1/19/2008 [UFC]
8-3-0
190
7   Mirko Filipovic
Last Fight: 9/8/2007 [UFC]
22-6-2
184
8 9 Heath Herring
Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]
28-13-0
176
9   Tim Sylvia
Last Fight: 2/2/2008 [UFC]
25-4-0
172
10 5 Cheick Kongo
Last Fight: 3/1/2008 [UFC]
11-4-1
165

Keep Reading

Rating Set #11 released.

Posted on March 2, 2008 by Jason

Rating Set #11 released on March 2, 2008.

Be sure to check out all of the divisions, as there are many changes across the board.

UFC 82: How they stack up

Posted on February 28, 2008 by Jason

Unified Middleweight Championship
[#1] Anderson Silva vs. [#3] Dan Henderson (Projected MW Ranking)

Heavyweights
[#5] Cheick Kongo vs. [#17] Heath Herring

Middleweights
[#10] Yushin Okami vs. [NR] Evan Tanner

Middleweights
[#15] Chris Leben vs. [#51] Alessio Sakara (Projected MW Ranking)

Welterweights
[#5] Jon Fitch vs. [#17] Chris Wilson

Heavyweights
[#8] Andrei Arlovski vs. [NR] Jake O’Brien

Welterweights
[#68] Luke Cummo vs. [#49] Luigi Fioravanti

Welterweights
[#9] Diego Sanchez vs. [#240] David Bielkheden

Welterweights
[#8] Josh Koscheck vs. [#24] Dustin Hazelett

Lightweights
[#129] Jorge Gurgel vs. [#175] John Halverson

Ranking Note: Gray font represents an approximate ranking. An asterisk represents a fighter who is ranked, but too low for an approximation. These two scenarios will clear up slightly as we move forward. “NR” means the fighter is not ranked, due to inactivity, or due to a rating that is at or below the default starter rating.

Rating Set #10 Released

Posted on February 27, 2008 by Jason

Set #10 primarily includes changes due to database maintenance.  It will be a common trend (at least for the near future) to see maintenance releases between the typical post-show releases.  Maintenance simply means that in my spare time, I’ll go through Sherdog bout information and resolve errors, omissions, or bad data in order to provide the most accurate ratings.

Of course, this will result in fluctuations.

Rating Set #9 is online.

Posted on February 25, 2008 by Jason

Rating set #9 is now available.  Please refer to the previously related post for the special considerations regarding this update.

Rating Set #9 to be released 2/25/08

Posted on February 24, 2008 by Jason

Ratings to be updated with the following considerations:

– Takanori Gomi has entered the inactive penalty stage several days ago, and will be dropped from the Lightweight rankings due to over 365 days of inactivity. Gesias Calvancanti will be the new #1 ranked Lightweight.

– Results of recent cards from Shooto, HDNet, DEEP, and others, will be reflected.

– Minor maintenance was performed with regards to fighter divisions. Some fighters will receive their accurate division assignment per the guidelines of the system. This is simply a maturation process of the system.

– Through my independent research, I have verified that fights taking place during the Ultimate Fighter: Season 2, were in fact, officially sanctioned pro bouts. Other than the finals, this is the only season where this is the case. As such, they will be added to the rating system database. This was confirmed with the Nevada State Athletic Commission web site.

– Other minor bouts in past years have been added to the MMA database.

It is needless to say, that all of these points will cause some moderate shuffling within the rankings.

Official Set #8 Released

Posted on February 21, 2008 by Jason

Ratings as of February 21, 2008

– This is just a maintenance release.  Bouts were added from various times in MMA history.

– Implemented methods to incorporate professional bouts that are not on the Sherdog database.  This will be handled on a case-by-case basis in instances where results can be verified through an independent source.  We still rely 99.9% on Sherdog’s database.

Remember, if you want to view archived rankings, you can do so through the ‘Historical Rankings’ link within the ‘MMA Rankings’ dropdown.  We archive the first ranking sets in each calendar month.  Also, if you wish to comment on this release, or any other topic, please do so in the forums.

Official Set #7 Released!

Posted on February 17, 2008 by Jason

Ratings released on Feb 17, 2008 with the following considerations:

– SmackGirl, EliteXC, and other minor shows have results which affect primarily the Heavyweight and Women’s division.

– Version 1.03 of the rating system is launched.  The latest update has very minor changes.

– Top 60 rankings have been expanded to Top 75!!

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