On October 28th, UFC is returning to Sao Paulo, Brazil with Fight Night: Brunson vs Machida, or UFN 119 (but who’s counting?). It’s not a star-studded card by any means, but a solid line-up in terms of rankings and competitive matchmaking. As is usual for Brazilian UFC events, all of the main card fights feature a Brazilian taking on a foreigner. The close rankings make it a difficult card to predict, and I am not very good at fight predictions to begin with, so if you’re interested in UFC betting for the next Fight Night, use your own prognostication skills instead of taking my word for it. That disclaimer aside, here are my picks for the main card:
[#10 MW] Derek Brunson vs [NR] Lyoto Machida
It’s been over two years since we saw former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in action, and almost three since we’ve seen his hand raised in the Octagon. Machida is coming back from an 18 month suspension for a positive PED test, and was finished by Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold in back-to-back fights prior to the suspension. His opponent Derek Brunson has been going through a minor slump of his own – after winning five fights in a row, he was stopped by the now interim Middleweight champion Robert Whittaker, then lost a controversial decision to the former champ Anderson Silva – but has rebounded by knocking out Daniel Kelly at UFC Fight Night 110 and is now looking to build up another win streak.
Can 39-year-old Machida make a triumphant return to action in his home country against an opponent in his physical prime? Lyoto looked like a shadow of his former self in his recent outings, and the long layoff is not likely to do him any favors. Then again, Brunson has shown a tendency to make mistakes in his fights, which could be costly against a counter-striker like Machida. After running face-first into Whittaker’s punches, Brunson looked gun-shy against Silva, giving away the decision that he could have easily won if he was more active. My guess is that he won’t be pushing the action with Machida for the same reasons he did not push it with Silva, which could cost him the fight on the scorecards and will likely make for a lackluster main event.
Prediction: Lyoto Machida by decision.
