Previewing UFC 300

UFC 300 will take place in Las Vegas on April 13th, 2024.  The date of this historic show is coming up fast, however the order of bouts on the card is also still unknown, so instead of strictly looking at the main card as I usually do in event previews, I will talk about the five fights announced so far that interest me the most:

[#3 LW] Justin Gaethje vs [#2 FW] Max Holloway

This is the highest-ranked men’s fight on the card so far.  Even though it’s not for a title (and don’t tell me anything about ‘BMF’), this fight could very well be the headliner – and it actually might be, but more on this later. Here we have a former featherweight champion making his second attempt at moving up a division to take on a perennial lightweight contender. The odds favorite, Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje, has rebounded from his most recent title loss to Charles Oliveira with victories over Rafael Fiziev and a spectacular second round head kick knockout over Dusting Porrier. Though he has already fought for the title twice, Justin is still very close to title contention; however he instead chose to take a superfight with Max Holloway.

Holloway has once had a long reign as the king of the featherweight division, before the ascent of Alexander Volkanovski – to whom Holloway lost thrice. He still continues to take out all the top contenders in the 145-lbs division, but as long as Volkanovski remains champion, the probability of Max getting another title shot are very low. Why not try his luck in a different weight class? This won’t be Holloway’s first foray at 155 lbs; in fact he has started his career as a lightweight, and as recently as 2019 has faced Dustin Porrier for the interim lightweight title. MMA math and the odds say that Justin should walk away victorious from this bout; indeed this will be a tough hill to climb for the outsized and outpowered Holloway, whose best chance is to out-cardio Gaethje. I’m curious to see whether Justin’s considerable power will be enough to crack Holloway’s legendary chin and it appears there is no real trend for those placing a bet online as the odds are tight.

[#19 LW] Bobby Green vs [#52 LW] Jim Miller

This battle between two veterans is a welcome addition to the UFC 300 prelims.  Jim Miller has been one of the most prolific fighters in the UFC, and holds the UFC records for most bouts and most wins, along with a host of others.  Miller will be stepping into the Octagon for the 44th time, and hoping to score victory #27 with the promotion.  Miller took part in UFC 100 and 200, so it only makes sense for him to be on 300 as well – in what may very well be his final fight.  And while he isn’t getting his wish of being announced as Jim ‘Fucking’ Miller for his UFC 300 ring entrance, he is a shoo-in for the UFC Hall of Fame once he hangs up the gloves.

Miller’s opponent Bobby Green has been a very active competitor in recent years, fighting three times in 2022 and four in 2023. Green will be looking to rebound from his recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner. Green is currently an odds favorite to defeat Miller, however I would not be counting Jim out.  Either way, this is guaranteed to be a fun, action-packed scrap.

[#3 W145] Kayla Harrison vs [#4 W135] Holly Holm

Olympic Judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison has been the hottest free agent/prospect in WMMA since Ronda Rousey.  Harrison won several PFL tournaments, suffering a decision loss to Larissa Pacheco as her sole defeat in MMA (Harrison holds two prior decision wins over Pacheco). Kayla has fought at weights ranging from 135 to 155 lbs, but will find her home in the bantamweight (135 lbs) division in the UFC, where a win will likely earn her the next title shot.

Her opponent Holly Holm has been a veteran of the UFC’s bantamweight and featherweight divisions, holding a record of 1-4 in UFC title matches (her one win, a highlight-reel head kick KO over the aforementioned Ronda Rousey.  At 42, Holm is almost geriatric in the world of women’s MMA, and has not looked good in her last fight against Mayra Buena Silva, which was overturned to an NC due to Silva testing positive for a banned substance. The interesting thing about this matchup is that Kayla is a heavy favorite, while our rating has them almost neck-and-neck.  In this case, I will go with the wisdom of the bookies, and predict a decision win for Harrison.

[#10 BW] Deiveson Figueiredo vs [#27 BW] Cody Garbrandt

You know this is a stacked card when according to Dana White, a bout between two former UFC champions will serve as the opening prelim of the night. After Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson left the UFC, and Henry Cejudo temporarily retired, Deiveson Figueiredo became the king of the hill in the flyweight division – or to be more accurate, he alternated holding the title with Brandon Moreno. ‘Figgy’ made his successful bantamweight debut with a rather one-sided decision win over Rob Font, and now takes on the heavy-handed ex-bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt.

Garbrandt had once caught lightning in a bottle when he took out the long-standing divisional champion Dominic Cruz.  Since then his career has floundered – he was stopped in his next three bouts, and went 3-2 since then, and while he is on a two-win streak these victories didn’t come against elite opponents.  Cody’s chin and lack of defense seem to be the big holes in his game, so I will go with the hard-hitting Figueiredo to hand Cody another knockout loss.

[#2 LW] Charles Oliveira vs [#6 LW] Arman Tsarukyan

This is the one matchup on this card with the biggest title contention aspirations. Former champion Charles Oliveira and red-hot contender Arman Tsarukyan are both coming off a first-round stoppage of Beniel Dariush in their most recent bouts. The winner of this fight is most likely to get a chance to rematch the lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.  Oliveira lost his title to Islam in his very first defense, while Tsarukyan took Makhachev to a competitive decision back in 2019.  Both fighters have  full arsenal of weapons at their disposal, however Oliveira’s submission game is a threat that Arman is missing in his game.  Tsarukyan is an odds favorite in this matchup; however this time I will go against the bookies and pick the higher-ranked Oliveira to win with another ‘Performance of the Night’ submission.

The Main Event

At the time of my writing this blog, the UFC 300 main event has not yet been announced. Dana White made the big announcement at the UFC 298 post-conference. After much speculation which included Leon Edwards, Belal Muhammad, Dricus DuPlesis, Israel Adesanya, Tom Aspinall, and even Jon Jones… the headliner we get is (C) [#1 LWH] Alex Pereira defending his title against former champion, [#4] Jamahal Hill. A solid matchup, even if a bit underwhelming for such a card.