Fight Matrix Program – UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal II (04-24-2021)

19 Apr , 2021,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (18-1-0, -414) vs. [#3] Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0, +313)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight and #34 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #22 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2021-02-13: W vs. [#4WW] Gilbert Burns (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 3
2020-07-11: W vs. [#3WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2WW] Colby Covington (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#1WW/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-11-02: W vs. [*] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -414 76.88%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2482.67 +307.83 80.32%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2412.54 +251.86 75.08%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2517.63 +232.41 79.21%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2265.98 +230.27 74.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 70, Jorge Masvidal 287
Previous Match-up Record: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0
.

Women Strawweight Championship (115)
[#1/#2DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0, -194) vs. [#2/#5DD/#5P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0, +160)
Weili Zhang is the All-Time #15 ranked Women’s fighter.
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #14 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#3SW/#8P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-08-31: W vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#9SW] Tecia Torres (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#2FLY/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0) via KO (Slam) in 2:58 of round 2
2018-04-07: W vs. [#3SW/#8P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Weili Zhang -194 63.17%
Elo K170 Weili Zhang 1925.02 +80.15 59.05%
Elo Modified Weili Zhang 1847.91 +53.39 55.82%
Glicko-1 Weili Zhang 1881.59 +131.21 68.03%
WHR Weili Zhang 1794.96 +120.85 63.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 413, Rose Namajunas 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 4-3
.

Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0, -418) vs. [#2/#8DD/#6P4P] Jessica Andrade (21-8-0, +315)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jessica Andrade is the All-Time #18 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#4FLY] Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#3FLY/#10DD] Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:03 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#5FLY] Liz Carmouche (15-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Andrade (1-2-0)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#3FLY/#10DD] Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) via KO (Punches to the Body) in 4:55 of round 1
2020-07-11: L vs. [#2SW/#5DD/#5P4P] Rose Namajunas (9-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#1SW/#2DD/#2P4P] Weili Zhang (21-1-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:42 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Valentina Shevchenko -418 77.00%
Elo K170 Valentina Shevchenko 1941.72 +157.10 67.21%
Elo Modified Valentina Shevchenko 1941.84 +124.77 63.32%
Glicko-1 Valentina Shevchenko 1954.85 +114.97 65.97%
WHR Valentina Shevchenko 1939.97 +200.06 71.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 154, Jessica Andrade 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 4-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#12] Chris Weidman (15-5-0, -112) vs. [#15] Uriah Hall (16-9-0, -111)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#16MW] Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-10-18: L vs. [#7LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:43 of round 1
2018-11-03: L vs. [#13MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (3-0-0)
2020-10-31: W vs. [#42MW] Anderson Silva (34-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 4
2019-09-14: W vs. [#30MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#112MW] Bevon Lewis (7-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:32 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chris Weidman -112 50.10%
Elo K170 Chris Weidman 1975.01 +80.00 59.04%
Elo Modified Chris Weidman 1972.32 +95.11 60.26%
Glicko-1 Chris Weidman 2018.78 +85.06 62.00%
WHR Chris Weidman 1835.88 +9.75 51.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 259, Uriah Hall 175
Previous Match-up Record: Chris Weidman leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 3-2
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#14] Anthony Smith (34-16-0, +161) vs. [#21] Jimmy Crute (12-1-0, -196)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #32 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2020-11-28: W vs. [#41LHW] Devin Clark (12-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:34 of round 1
2020-08-29: L vs. [#8LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-13: L vs. [#4LHW] Glover Teixeira (32-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 5

Last 3 Fights: Jimmy Crute (2-1-0)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Modestas Bukauskas (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 1
2020-02-22: W vs. [#45LHW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:29 of round 1
2019-09-14: L vs. [#33LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-6-0) via Submission (Peruvian Necktie) in 3:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jimmy Crute -196 63.35%
Elo K170 Anthony Smith 1880.25 +120.61 63.44%
Elo Modified Anthony Smith 1907.95 +130.69 63.93%
Glicko-1 Anthony Smith 1972.51 +153.26 70.73%
WHR Anthony Smith 1834.80 +104.83 61.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 147, Jimmy Crute 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#47] Randy Brown (12-4-0, -162) vs. [#48] Alex Oliveira (22-9-1, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Randy Brown (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: L vs. [#7WW] Vicente Luque (20-7-1) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:56 of round 2
2019-11-16: W vs. [#53WW] Warlley Alves (14-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:22 of round 2
2019-06-22: W vs. [#71WW] Bryan Barberena (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Alex Oliveira (2-1-0)
2020-10-24: L vs. [#36WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (13-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:40 of round 1
2020-07-25: W vs. [#198WW] Peter Sobotta (17-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#49WW] Max Griffin (17-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Randy Brown -162 59.02%
Elo K170 Randy Brown 1695.56 +4.68 50.53%
Elo Modified Randy Brown 1713.99 +22.38 52.45%
Glicko-1 Randy Brown 1740.22 +39.45 55.65%
WHR Randy Brown 1674.35 +23.60 52.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randy Brown 266, Alex Oliveira 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#83] Dwight Grant (10-3-0, -254) vs. [*] Stefan Sekulic (12-3-0, +201)

Last 3 Fights: Dwight Grant (2-1-0)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#33WW] Daniel Rodriguez (14-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1
2019-04-13: W vs. [#79WW] Alan Jouban (17-7-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#247WW] Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Sekulic (2-1-0)
2018-09-15: L vs. [#27WW] Ramazan Emeev (20-4-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-02-16: W vs. [*] Givago Francisco (7-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:17 of round 1
2017-12-08: W vs. [#200WW] Ivica Truscek (39-35-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:56 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dwight Grant -254 68.35%
Elo K170 Dwight Grant 1602.94 +138.94 65.36%
Elo Modified Dwight Grant 1611.67 +111.87 62.00%
Glicko-1 Dwight Grant 1599.16 +46.59 56.66%
WHR Dwight Grant 1514.11 +6.60 50.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dwight Grant 245, Stefan Sekulic 952
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#33] Brendan Allen (15-4-0, -135) vs. [#48] Karl Roberson (9-3-0, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (2-1-0)
2020-11-14: L vs. [#32MW] Sean Strickland (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#52MW] Kyle Daukaus (10-1-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#44MW] Tom Breese (12-3-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karl Roberson (2-1-0)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#4MW] Marvin Vettori (16-4-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 1
2019-11-09: W vs. [*] Roman Kopylov (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 3
2019-07-13: W vs. [#91MW] Wellington Turman (16-4-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -135 54.55%
Elo K170 Brendan Allen 1770.13 +104.71 61.74%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 1780.12 +76.02 58.24%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 1812.52 +101.03 64.14%
WHR Brendan Allen 1739.45 +58.68 56.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 161, Karl Roberson 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[*] Tristan Connelly (14-6-0, +183) vs. [#161] Pat Sabatini (13-3-0, -231)

Last 3 Fights: Tristan Connelly (3-0-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#57WW] Michel Pereira (26-11-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#318LW] DJuan Owens (18-16-1) via TKO in 1:56 of round 5
2019-05-10: W vs. [#478LW] Zach Juusola (11-7-0) via SUB in 2:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Pat Sabatini (2-1-0)
2020-12-18: W vs. [#346FW] Jesse Stirn (11-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:23 of round 2
2020-09-17: W vs. [#579FW] Jordan Titoni (7-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2020-02-01: L vs. [#142BW] James Gonzalez (6-4-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 0:46 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Pat Sabatini -231 66.38%
Elo K170 Tristan Connelly 1676.03 +215.54 72.80%
Elo Modified Tristan Connelly 1678.57 +187.17 69.41%
Glicko-1 Tristan Connelly 1731.59 +194.33 75.38%
WHR Tristan Connelly 1641.52 +135.82 65.03%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tristan Connelly 588, Pat Sabatini 127
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#259] Danaa Batgerel (8-2-0, -149) vs. [#326] Kevin Natividad (9-2-0, +122)

Last 3 Fights: Danaa Batgerel (2-1-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#409BW] Guido Cannetti (8-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 1
2019-08-31: L vs. [#139BW] Heili Alateng (14-8-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#697BW] Haitao Ti (2-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Natividad (2-1-0)
2020-10-31: L vs. [#99BW] Miles Johns (11-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:51 of round 3
2020-07-17: W vs. [#396BW] Kyle Estrada (10-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 2
2019-02-01: W vs. [#749FW] Andrew Perez (9-12-0) via SD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Danaa Batgerel -149 57.05%
Elo K170 Danaa Batgerel 1380.61 +23.20 52.65%
Elo Modified Danaa Batgerel 1413.92 +66.75 57.25%
Glicko-1 Danaa Batgerel 1418.74 +127.86 67.61%
WHR Danaa Batgerel 1404.29 +136.02 65.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Danaa Batgerel 413, Kevin Natividad 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#105] Zhu Rong (17-3-0, -249) vs. [#331] Rodrigo Vargas (11-4-0, +198)

Last 3 Fights: Zhu Rong (3-0-0)
2021-01-14: W vs. [#566LW] Deliya Bi (9-9-0) via KO in 4:16 of round 3
2020-09-25: W vs. [#175FW] Yilan Sha (17-6-0) via KO in 2:05 of round 1
2020-08-21: W vs. [NA] Jiaqiang Han (1-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:01 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Vargas (1-2-0)
2020-02-15: L vs. [#204LW] Brok Weaver (16-6-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 4:02 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#189LW] Alex da Silva Coelho (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-18: W vs. [*] Mike de la Torre (14-9-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Zhu Rong -249 68.01%
Elo K170 Zhu Rong 1648.05 +327.46 81.70%
Elo Modified Zhu Rong 1636.12 +172.92 68.07%
Glicko-1 Zhu Rong 1715.91 +252.18 81.02%
WHR Zhu Rong 1599.00 +231.43 74.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zhu Rong 100, Rodrigo Vargas 434
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[*] Qileng Aori (18-6-0, -115) vs. [#62] Jeff Molina (8-2-0, -107)

Last 3 Fights: Qileng Aori (3-0-0)
2020-01-03: W vs. [#547FLY] Khizri Abdulaev (5-3-0) via KO in 3:38 of round 2
2019-10-18: W vs. [*] Amirlan Amirov (5-4-0) via UD ()
2019-06-14: W vs. [*] Giorgi Borashvili (4-5-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jeff Molina (3-0-0)
2020-08-25: W vs. [#207FLY] Jacob Silva (6-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#287FLY] Ken Porter (11-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:38 of round 2
2019-09-13: W vs. [NA] Chancey Wilson (2-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Qileng Aori -115 50.85%
Elo K170 Qileng Aori 1544.60 +131.13 64.55%
Elo Modified Qileng Aori 1538.39 +110.42 61.85%
Glicko-1 Qileng Aori 1554.92 +94.23 63.24%
WHR Qileng Aori 1387.66 +64.89 57.36%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Qileng Aori 477, Jeff Molina 242
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#32] Na Liang (15-4-0, +130) vs. [*] Ariane Carnelossi (12-2-0, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Na Liang (3-0-0)
2021-01-14: W vs. [NA] Mengnan Liu (0-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:20 of round 1
2020-09-25: W vs. [#129SW] Xiaocan Feng (2-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:41 of round 1
2020-01-03: W vs. [*] Asiya Klyutova (2-3-0) via KO in 3:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Carnelossi (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#12SW] Angela Hill (13-9-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:56 of round 3
2019-05-24: W vs. [#105SW] Ketlen Souza (8-3-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 03:53 of round 3
2018-11-03: W vs. [#52SW] Joice Mara da Silva (11-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ariane Carnelossi -158 58.47%
Elo K170 Na Liang 1400.46 +57.65 56.55%
Elo Modified Na Liang 1394.85 +18.81 52.06%
Glicko-1 Na Liang 1403.41 +27.36 53.93%
WHR Ariane Carnelossi 1388.54 +10.00 51.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Na Liang 100, Ariane Carnelossi 581
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#192] James Krause-Simmons (7-3-0) vs. [#255] Johnny Munoz Jr. (10-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: James Krause-Simmons (2-1-0)
2020-11-07: L vs. [#36FW] Giga Chikadze (13-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2020-10-16: W vs. [#688LW] Shawn West (16-12-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2019-12-07: W vs. [#1301LW] Morgan Sickinger (21-14-0) via TKO in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Munoz Jr. (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: L vs. [#80FW] Joseph Nathan Maness (13-1-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2019-09-07: W vs. [*] Ian King (5-4-0) via SUB in 3:33 of round 2
2019-06-22: W vs. [*] Rentsen Otgontulga (4-2-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 49-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Johnny Munoz Jr. 1411.12 +128.76 64.30%
Elo Modified Johnny Munoz Jr. 1459.66 +155.62 66.40%
Glicko-1 Johnny Munoz Jr. 1448.95 +114.40 65.89%
WHR Johnny Munoz Jr. 1397.64 +167.73 68.27%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: James Krause-Simmons 168, Johnny Munoz Jr. 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2021-4-18