Fight Matrix Program – UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 (2021-01-23)

20 Jan , 2021,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#2/#8DD] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0, +243) vs. [#8] Conor McGregor (22-4-0, -311)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight and #50 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #24 ranked Lightweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2020-06-27: W vs. [#7LW] Dan Hooker (20-9-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-46)
2019-09-07: L vs. [*] Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#2FW/#5DD] Max Holloway (22-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#19WW] Donald Cerrone (36-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1
2018-10-06: L vs. [*] Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2016-11-12: W vs. [*] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Conor McGregor -311 72.19%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2300.20 +84.60 59.55%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2219.99 +62.89 56.84%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2286.08 +72.99 60.35%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2086.52 +19.08 52.18%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 210, Conor McGregor 371
Previous Match-up Record: Conor McGregor leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dustin Poirier leads 5-3
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Lightweight (155)
[#7] Dan Hooker (20-9-0, -128) vs. [#9] Michael Chandler (21-5-0, +104)
Dan Hooker is the All-Time #49 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #19 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#2LW/#8DD] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-46)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#12LW] Paul Felder (17-6-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-10-05: W vs. [*] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (2-1-0)
2020-08-07: W vs. [#87WW] Ben Henderson (28-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2019-12-29: W vs. [#44LW] Sidney Outlaw (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:59 of round 1
2019-05-11: L vs. [#4FW] Patricio Freire (31-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dan Hooker -128 53.38%
Elo K170 Michael Chandler 2069.96 +41.31 54.70%
Elo Modified Michael Chandler 2029.58 +86.42 59.35%
Glicko-1 Michael Chandler 2095.22 +108.85 65.17%
WHR Michael Chandler 1973.74 +111.59 62.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hooker 210, Michael Chandler 169
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9] Jessica Eye (15-8-0, -103) vs. [#18] Joanne Calderwood (14-5-0, -121)
Jessica Eye is the All-Time #43 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Eye (1-2-0)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#7FLY] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#10FLY] Viviane Araujo (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Joanne Calderwood (1-2-0)
2020-08-01: L vs. [#4FLY] Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 1
2019-09-07: W vs. [#23FLY] Andrea Lee (11-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#3FLY/#10DD] Katlyn Chookagian (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joanne Calderwood -121 51.90%
Elo K170 Jessica Eye 1546.86 +76.55 58.65%
Elo Modified Jessica Eye 1532.37 +66.82 57.26%
Glicko-1 Jessica Eye 1497.87 +76.55 60.84%
WHR Jessica Eye 1451.24 +36.13 54.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Eye 224, Joanne Calderwood 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Eye leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#41] Ottman Azaitar (13-0-0, -160) vs. [*] Matt Frevola (8-1-1, +132)

Last 3 Fights: Ottman Azaitar (3-0-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#68LW] Khama Worthy (16-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1
2019-09-07: W vs. [*] Teemu Packalen (8-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:33 of round 1
2018-08-18: W vs. [#1128LW] Danijel Kokora (21-16-0) via TKO in 0:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (2-0-1)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#103LW] Luis Pena (8-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#149WW] Jalin Turner (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: D vs. [#42LW] Lando Vannata (11-5-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ottman Azaitar -160 58.81%
Elo K170 Ottman Azaitar 1769.95 +154.97 67.00%
Elo Modified Ottman Azaitar 1775.05 +201.16 70.70%
Glicko-1 Ottman Azaitar 1832.32 +281.57 83.49%
WHR Ottman Azaitar 1745.27 +243.87 75.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ottman Azaitar 133, Matt Frevola 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#9] Marina Rodriguez (12-1-2, +247) vs. [#11] Amanda Ribas (10-1-0, -318)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (1-1-1)
2020-07-25: L vs. [#4SW] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-12-07: D vs. [#7FLY] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-08-10: W vs. [#7SW] Tecia Torres (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#69FLY] Paige VanZant (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:21 of round 1
2020-03-14: W vs. [#27SW] Randa Markos (10-10-1) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#10SW] Mackenzie Dern (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -318 72.52%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1595.93 +35.05 54.00%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1615.32 +3.37 50.37%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1610.90 +8.24 51.18%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1632.06 +76.56 58.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 182, Amanda Ribas 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Ribas leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#29] Arman Tsarukyan (14-3-0, -275) vs. [#57] Nasrat Haqparast (12-3-0, +219)

Last 3 Fights: Arman Tsarukyan (2-1-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#74LW] Davi Ramos (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-27: W vs. [*] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-20: L vs. [*] Islam Makhachev (18-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nasrat Haqparast (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#177LW] Alex Munoz (6-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#13LW] Drew Dober (23-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2019-08-03: W vs. [*] Joaquim Silva (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Arman Tsarukyan -275 70.05%
Elo K170 Arman Tsarukyan 1795.38 +128.59 64.28%
Elo Modified Arman Tsarukyan 1790.73 +117.70 62.60%
Glicko-1 Arman Tsarukyan 1819.95 +141.65 69.32%
WHR Nasrat Haqparast 1674.63 +6.94 50.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Arman Tsarukyan 189, Nasrat Haqparast 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4-0, +113) vs. [#35] Brad Tavares (17-6-0, -138)

Last 3 Fights: Antonio Carlos Jr. (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#15MW] Uriah Hall (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#18MW] Ian Heinisch (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-04-14: W vs. [*] Tim Boetsch (21-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:28 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (1-2-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#24MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-1-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:27 of round 1
2018-07-06: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#4P4P] Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#19MW] Krzysztof Jotko (22-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brad Tavares -138 55.25%
Elo K170 Brad Tavares 1727.15 +36.58 54.17%
Elo Modified Antonio Carlos Jr. 1776.37 +61.08 56.64%
Glicko-1 Antonio Carlos Jr. 1840.81 +102.69 64.36%
WHR Antonio Carlos Jr. 1725.51 +70.69 58.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Carlos Jr. 497, Brad Tavares 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Antonio Carlos Jr. leads 1-0
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Sara McMann (12-5-0, -129) vs. [#10] Julianna Pena (9-4-0, +104)
Sara McMann is the All-Time #39 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sara McMann (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#14BW] Lina Lansberg (10-5-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#19BW] Marion Reneau (9-6-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:40 of round 2
2017-09-09: L vs. [#8BW] Ketlen Vieira (11-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (1-2-0)
2020-10-03: L vs. [#2BW/#8DD] Germaine de Randamie (10-4-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:25 of round 3
2019-07-13: W vs. [*] Nicco Montano (4-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2017-01-28: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (20-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sara McMann -129 53.46%
Elo K170 Julianna Pena 1564.07 +45.21 55.15%
Elo Modified Julianna Pena 1584.65 +41.76 54.56%
Glicko-1 Julianna Pena 1561.85 +25.30 53.63%
WHR Julianna Pena 1532.68 +1.50 50.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sara McMann 364, Julianna Pena 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[*] Khalil Rountree (8-5-0, -335) vs. [#136] Marcin Prachnio (13-5-0, +258)

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (1-2-0)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#40LHW] Ion Cutelaba (15-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:35 of round 1
2019-04-13: W vs. [#33MW] Eryk Anders (13-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-11-17: L vs. [#17LHW] Johnny Walker (18-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Prachnio (0-3-0)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#80LHW] Mike Rodriguez (11-6-0) via KO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:17 of round 1
2018-09-15: L vs. [#16LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (14-1-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
2018-02-24: L vs. [#35LHW] Sam Alvey (33-14-1) via KO (Punch) in 4:23 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khalil Rountree -335 73.38%
Elo K170 Khalil Rountree 1452.06 +54.29 56.17%
Elo Modified Khalil Rountree 1504.82 +81.19 58.79%
Glicko-1 Khalil Rountree 1512.87 +109.23 65.22%
WHR Khalil Rountree 1487.50 +179.02 69.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khalil Rountree 483, Marcin Prachnio 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#42] Makhmud Muradov (24-6-0, -139) vs. [#45] Andrew Sanchez (11-5-0, +114)

Last 3 Fights: Makhmud Muradov (3-0-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#108MW] Trevor Smith (15-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:09 of round 3
2019-09-28: W vs. [#61MW] Alessio Di Chirico (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#311MW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (31-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Andrew Sanchez (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#84MW] Wellington Turman (16-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 1
2019-10-12: L vs. [#7MW] Marvin Vettori (15-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#62MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Makhmud Muradov -139 55.44%
Elo K170 Makhmud Muradov 1813.96 +112.95 62.62%
Elo Modified Makhmud Muradov 1839.59 +120.95 62.94%
Glicko-1 Makhmud Muradov 1890.85 +130.31 67.92%
WHR Makhmud Muradov 1730.91 +60.72 56.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Makhmud Muradov 413, Andrew Sanchez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#30] Movsar Evloev (13-0-0, -496) vs. [#48] Nik Lentz (30-11-2, +364)

Last 3 Fights: Movsar Evloev (3-0-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#97FW] Mike Grundy (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#33BW] Enrique Barzola (17-5-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#255FW] Seung Woo Choi (9-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#14FW] Arnold Allen (16-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (30-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 2
2019-02-17: W vs. [#31LW] Scott Holtzman (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Movsar Evloev -496 79.43%
Elo K170 Movsar Evloev 1896.17 +168.48 68.35%
Elo Modified Movsar Evloev 1888.59 +173.20 68.10%
Glicko-1 Movsar Evloev 1905.21 +145.81 69.83%
WHR Movsar Evloev 1823.01 +116.86 63.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Movsar Evloev 182, Nik Lentz 364
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#17] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-4-0, -122) vs. [#46] Amir Albazi (13-1-0, -102)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov is the All-Time #41 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (2-1-0)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#12FLY] Raulian Paiva (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-19: W vs. [#83BW] Ali Bagautinov (20-7-0) via SD (47-48, 49-47, 49-48)
2018-08-31: W vs. [#21FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (13-1-0) via MD ()

Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (2-1-0)
2020-07-18: W vs. [#75FLY] Malcolm Gordon (12-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:42 of round 1
2019-11-15: W vs. [#283FLY] Ryan Curtis (5-2-0) via SUB in 2:25 of round 1
2019-04-19: L vs. [#23FLY] Jose Torres (9-1-1) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Zhalgas Zhumagulov -122 52.11%
Elo K170 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1645.91 +55.27 56.28%
Elo Modified Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1626.57 +13.88 51.52%
Glicko-1 Amir Albazi 1665.29 +65.02 59.25%
WHR Amir Albazi 1587.42 +51.28 55.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov 196, Amir Albazi 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Dustin Poirier
Highest Stored DD Rating: Dustin Poirier
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2021-1-20