Category Archives: Event Previews

The Lineal Strawweight title will be on the line at Rizin 18

14 Aug , 2019,
Richard Mann
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Basically all lineal titles and number-one rankings are aligned with the UFC titles these days. However, there are a few key exceptions. One of those exceptions is the lineal strawweight title, which will be on the line at Rizin 18 this weekend.

#1 SW Haruo Ochi enters the event as the top-ranked fighter in the division, which Fight Matrix defines as 121.9 lbs and below. His opponent for the night will be UFC veteran #3 SW Jarred Brooks, who previously made a name for himself on the strawweight scene before moving up to flyweight to fight in the UFC.

Ochi dropped to strawweight in 2015 after competing at higher weight classes. In 2017 he captured the Deep strawweight title with a victory over Kanta Sato. A year later he picked up the biggest win of his career over #11 SW Mitsuhisa Sunabe at Rizin 13. In the process he took over the number-one spot at strawweight and claimed the lineal title. Sunabe had been undefeated since 2011 and was the strawweight King of Pancrase.

Brooks was a nationally ranked high school wrestler who was never really able to make it work on the collegiate level. Instead, he launched an MMA career in 2014. In his eight professional fight, he defeated veteran #23 SW Junji Ito and entered the strawweight rankings at number three. He fought once more in the division, scoring a victory over Jun Nakamura under the Pancrase banner, before moving up to flyweight to sign with the UFC. During his run in the UFC, he went 2-2 with victories over #31 FLW Eric Shelton and #34 FLW Roberto Sanchez. The promotion then released him as part of their ill conceived and ultimately unsuccessful plan to eliminate the flyweight division.

Considering the issues that the flyweight division has had getting over in the U.S., it seems unlikely that the strawweight division will ever really make a ton of headlines. However, the WBA, WBC, IBF and WBO all sponsor multiple boxing divisions under 125 pounds, so there is still a chance that the strawweight division could flourish on the international scene.

Richard Mann is a regular contributor to @ESPNMMA, @FightMetric, @RotoWireMMA and @InterMat. You can follow him on Twitter at @richardamann.

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 (08-17-2019)

12 Aug , 2019,
jcs
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Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0, 236.5lb, -141) vs. [#3] Stipe Miocic (18-3-0, 230.5lb, +117)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #12 ranked Heavyweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (3-0-0)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#6HW+] Derrick Lewis (21-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:14 of round 2
2018-07-07: W vs. [#3HW+] Stipe Miocic (18-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#10LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (2-1-0)
2018-07-07: L vs. [#1HW+/#3DD/#3P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#2HW+] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#5HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Daniel Cormier – Win%: 55.94
Elo Favorite (Standard): Daniel Cormier (2425.27) [+234.50] – Win%: 74.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Daniel Cormier (2379.98) [+201.59] – Win%: 70.73
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 287, Stipe Miocic 406
Previous Match-up Record: Daniel Cormier leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#6] Anthony Pettis (22-8-0, 169.5lb, -135) vs. [*] Nate Diaz (19-11-0, 170.0lb, +111)
Anthony Pettis is the All-Time #37 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#10WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2018-10-06: L vs. [#2LW/#4DD/#8P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-07-07: W vs. [#24WW] Michael Chiesa (16-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 0:52 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2016-08-20: L vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-03-05: W vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2015-12-19: W vs. [#23FW] Michael Johnson (19-14-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Anthony Pettis – Win%: 54.79
Elo Favorite (Standard): Anthony Pettis (2042.82) [+62.60] – Win%: 57.10
Elo Favorite (Modified): Anthony Pettis (2009.89) [+26.40] – Win%: 52.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Pettis 147, Nate Diaz 1092
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Pettis leads 4-2
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Middleweight (186)
[#2] Yoel Romero (13-3-0, 184.5lb, -140) vs. [#13] Paulo Henrique Costa (12-0-0, 186.0lb, +116)
Yoel Romero is the All-Time #12 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (1-2-0)
2018-06-09: L vs. [#1MW/#9P4P] Robert Whittaker (20-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#11LHW] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 3
2017-07-08: L vs. [#1MW/#9P4P] Robert Whittaker (20-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Paulo Henrique Costa (3-0-0)
2018-07-07: W vs. [#14MW] Uriah Hall (14-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2
2017-11-04: W vs. [*] Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 2
2017-06-03: W vs. [*] Oluwale Bamgbose (6-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yoel Romero – Win%: 55.74
Elo Favorite (Standard): Yoel Romero (2143.44) [+285.58] – Win%: 78.66
Elo Favorite (Modified): Yoel Romero (2167.66) [+279.72] – Win%: 77.29
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yoel Romero 434, Paulo Henrique Costa 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 14: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 (08-10-2019)

6 Aug , 2019,
jcs
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#3DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (17-3-0, -1017) vs. [#2] Liz Carmouche (13-6-0, +640)
Valentina Shevchenko is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Valentina Shevchenko (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#4FLY] Jessica Eye (14-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:26 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#3SW/#8DD] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-02-03: W vs. [#73FLY] Priscila Cachoeira (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Liz Carmouche (2-1-0)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#47FLY] Lucie Pudilova (8-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-07-14: W vs. [#5BW/#10P4P] Jennifer Maia (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-12-09: L vs. [#15FLY] Alexis Davis (19-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Valentina Shevchenko – Win%: 87.07
Elo Favorite (Standard): Valentina Shevchenko (1810.62) [+181.20] – Win%: 69.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): Valentina Shevchenko (1830.49) [+180.64] – Win%: 68.80
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Valentina Shevchenko 63, Liz Carmouche 168
Previous Match-up Record: Liz Carmouche leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Valentina Shevchenko leads 2-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Volkan Oezdemir (15-4-0, -148) vs. [#13] Ilir Latifi (14-6-0, +123)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (0-3-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-27: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 3
2018-01-20: L vs. [#1HW+/#3DD/#3P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7LHW] Corey Anderson (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#28LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2017-09-09: W vs. [#52LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Volkan Oezdemir – Win%: 57.09
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ilir Latifi (1797.74) [+110.23] – Win%: 62.33
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ilir Latifi (1820.19) [+92.45] – Win%: 59.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Volkan Oezdemir 147, Ilir Latifi 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#20] Mike Perry (13-4-0, +180) vs. [#27] Vicente Luque (16-6-1, -224)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#29WW] Alex Oliveira (20-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#4LW] Donald Cerrone (36-12-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:46 of round 1
2018-07-07: W vs. [#9LW] Paul Felder (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#93WW] Derrick Krantz (24-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#88WW] Bryan Barberena (14-7-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:54 of round 3
2018-10-06: W vs. [#266LW] Jalin Turner (8-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Vicente Luque – Win%: 65.94
Elo Favorite (Standard): Vicente Luque (1900.29) [+62.90] – Win%: 57.14
Elo Favorite (Modified): Vicente Luque (1925.79) [+126.51] – Win%: 63.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 105, Vicente Luque 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs. Lawler (08-03-2019)

29 Jul , 2019,
jcs
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Welterweight (170)
[#4] Colby Covington (14-1-0, -230) vs. [#17] Robbie Lawler (28-13-0, +184)
Colby Covington is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (3-0-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2017-10-28: W vs. [#13WW] Demian Maia (27-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
2017-06-17: W vs. [*] Dong Hyun Kim (22-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (1-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#16WW] Ben Askren (19-1-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2017-12-16: L vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Donald Cerrone (36-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Colby Covington – Win%: 66.43
Elo Favorite (Standard): Colby Covington (2189.89) [+152.92] – Win%: 66.79
Elo Favorite (Modified): Colby Covington (2144.16) [+164.70] – Win%: 67.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Colby Covington 420, Robbie Lawler 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Colby Covington leads 1-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Volkan Oezdemir (15-4-0, -144) vs. [#13] Ilir Latifi (14-6-0, +116)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (0-3-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-27: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 3
2018-01-20: L vs. [#1HW+/#3DD/#3P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7LHW] Corey Anderson (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#27LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2017-09-09: W vs. [#51LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Volkan Oezdemir – Win%: 56.03
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ilir Latifi (1797.74) [+110.24] – Win%: 62.33
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ilir Latifi (1820.19) [+92.46] – Win%: 59.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Volkan Oezdemir 140, Ilir Latifi 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#36] Jim Miller (30-13-0, -180) vs. [#43] Clay Guida (35-18-0, +149)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #39 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Clay Guida is the All-Time #29 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#401LW] Jason Gonzalez (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2018-12-15: L vs. [#6LW] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2018-09-08: W vs. [#111LW] Alex White (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:29 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Clay Guida (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#376LW] B.J. Penn (16-14-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2018-06-09: L vs. [#6LW] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:18 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [*] Joe Lauzon (27-15-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:07 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jim Miller – Win%: 61.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Clay Guida (1755.08) [+88.05] – Win%: 59.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Clay Guida (1751.18) [+89.89] – Win%: 59.71
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 98, Clay Guida 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 6 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar (07-27-2019)

22 Jul , 2019,
jcs
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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD/#10P4P] Max Holloway (20-4-0, -411) vs. [*] Frankie Edgar (23-6-1, +317)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #8 ranked Featherweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#6P4P] Dustin Poirier (25-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#3FW] Brian Ortega (14-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2017-12-02: W vs. [#4FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (2-1-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#34FW] Cub Swanson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#3FW] Brian Ortega (14-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2017-05-13: W vs. [#28FW] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Max Holloway – Win%: 77.03
Elo Favorite (Standard): Max Holloway (2246.96) [+155.78] – Win%: 67.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Max Holloway (2203.94) [+139.69] – Win%: 64.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 105, Frankie Edgar 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 6-4
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-2-0, -674) vs. [#3] Felicia Spencer (7-0-0, +466)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (18-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2018-03-03: W vs. [#9BW] Yana Kunitskaya (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2017-12-30: W vs. [#3BW] Holly Holm (12-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Felicia Spencer (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#5FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:24 of round 1
2018-11-16: W vs. [#24FW] Pam Sorenson (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:23 of round 4
2018-07-21: W vs. [#60FW] Helena Kolesnyk (5-2-0) via Submission (rear Naked Choke) in 1:47 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Cristiane Justino – Win%: 83.13
Elo Favorite (Standard): Cristiane Justino (1801.65) [+282.57] – Win%: 78.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cristiane Justino (1801.09) [+232.65] – Win%: 73.46
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 210, Felicia Spencer 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#46] Niko Price (13-2-0, +232) vs. [#54] Geoff Neal (11-2-0, -289)

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#77WW] Tim Means (28-11-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:50 of round 1
2018-09-08: L vs. [#63WW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 1
2018-07-14: W vs. [#76WW] Randy Brown (11-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (3-0-0)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#32WW] Belal Muhammad (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#133LW] Frank Camacho (23-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:23 of round 2
2018-02-18: W vs. [*] Brian Camozzi (7-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:48 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Geoff Neal – Win%: 71.15
Elo Favorite (Standard): Geoff Neal (1749.14) [+29.06] – Win%: 53.31
Elo Favorite (Modified): Niko Price (1759.76) [+31.17] – Win%: 53.40
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Niko Price 140, Geoff Neal 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 4: dos Anjos vs. Edwards (07-20-2019)

15 Jul , 2019,
jcs
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Welterweight (170)
[#5] Rafael dos Anjos (29-11-0, +106) vs. [#13] Leon Edwards (17-3-0, -131)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#33WW] Kevin Lee (17-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4
2018-11-30: L vs. [#1WW/#5DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (15-1-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)
2018-06-09: L vs. [#3WW] Colby Covington (14-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (3-0-0)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#18WW] Gunnar Nelson (17-4-1) via SD (29-28, 29-27, 28-29)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#4LW] Donald Cerrone (36-12-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2018-03-17: W vs. [*] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Leon Edwards – Win%: 53.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rafael dos Anjos (2119.56) [+26.40] – Win%: 53.01
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rafael dos Anjos (2085.70) [+65.62] – Win%: 57.13
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 63, Leon Edwards 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael dos Anjos leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#11] Alexey Oleynik (59-12-1, +128) vs. [#45] Walt Harris (12-7-0, -154)

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: L vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-09-15: W vs. [#15HW+] Mark Hunt (13-14-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1
2018-05-12: W vs. [#65HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 1:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Walt Harris (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#88HW+] Sergey Spivak (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2018-12-29: NC vs. [#35HW+] Andrei Arlovski (27-18-0)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#120HW+] Daniel Spitz (6-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Walt Harris – Win%: 58.02
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Oleynik (1756.64) [+162.34] – Win%: 67.74
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Oleynik (1789.45) [+83.42] – Win%: 59.03
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 91, Walt Harris 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexey Oleynik leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#125] Juan Adams (5-1-0, -114) vs. [#144] Greg Hardy (4-1-0, -109)

Last 3 Fights: Juan Adams (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#84HW+] Arjan Singh Bhullar (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#205HW+] Chris de la Rocha (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
2018-07-31: W vs. [#264HW+] Shawn Teed (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#317HW+] Dmitry Smoliakov (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#134HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via DQ (Illegal Knee to Grounded Fighter) in 2:28 of round 2
2018-09-29: W vs. [NA] Ray Jones (0-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:53 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Juan Adams – Win%: 50.53
Elo Favorite (Standard): Juan Adams (1371.43) [+66.20] – Win%: 57.50
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1502.08) [+34.06] – Win%: 53.72
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Juan Adams 77, Greg Hardy 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 13: De Randamie vs. Ladd (07-13-2019)

9 Jul , 2019,
jcs
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#7DD/#8P4P] Germaine de Randamie (8-3-0, +142) vs. [#4] Aspen Ladd (8-0-0, -170)
Germaine de Randamie is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Germaine de Randamie (3-0-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#5BW] Raquel Pennington (9-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-02-11: W vs. [#3BW] Holly Holm (12-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-05-08: W vs. [*] Anna Elmose (3-2-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 3:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Aspen Ladd (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#12BW] Sijara Eubanks (4-3-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#19BW] Tonya Evinger (19-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 1
2017-10-21: W vs. [#11BW] Lina Lansberg (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Aspen Ladd – Win%: 60.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Aspen Ladd (1648.70) [+30.39] – Win%: 53.46
Elo Favorite (Modified): Aspen Ladd (1700.58) [+66.11] – Win%: 57.19
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Germaine de Randamie 245, Aspen Ladd 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#15] Ricky Simon (16-1-0, -329) vs. [*] Urijah Faber (34-10-0, +261)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (3-0-0)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#29BW] Rani Yahya (26-10-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#18BW] Montel Jackson (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#31BW] Merab Dvalishvili (9-4-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (1-2-0)
2016-12-17: W vs. [*] Brad Pickett (25-14-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2016-09-10: L vs. [#13BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-06-04: L vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (22-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ricky Simon – Win%: 73.46
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ricky Simon (1833.17) [+0.43] – Win%: 50.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ricky Simon (1809.50) [+10.41] – Win%: 51.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Simon 154, Urijah Faber 938
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#7] Josh Emmett (14-2-0, +141) vs. [#14] Mirsad Bektic (13-1-0, -168)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#22FW] Michael Johnson (19-14-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-02-24: L vs. [#8FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2
2017-12-16: W vs. [#15FW] Ricardo Lamas (19-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mirsad Bektic (2-1-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#15FW] Ricardo Lamas (19-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-01-27: W vs. [#244LW] Godofredo Castro (14-6-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 2:47 of round 1
2017-03-04: L vs. [#19FW] Darren Elkins (24-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mirsad Bektic – Win%: 60.17
Elo Favorite (Standard): Josh Emmett (1870.60) [+5.47] – Win%: 50.63
Elo Favorite (Modified): Josh Emmett (1862.54) [+70.67] – Win%: 57.67
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 105, Mirsad Bektic 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos (07-06-2019)

1 Jul , 2019,
jcs
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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#4DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (24-1-0, -669) vs. [#6] Thiago Santos (21-6-0, +466)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #1 ranked Light Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#2LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via UD (48-44, 48-44, 48-44)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 3
2017-07-29: NC vs. [#1HW+/#2DD/#2P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (3-0-0)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#13LHW] Jan Blachowicz (23-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2018-12-08: W vs. [#28LHW] Jimi Manuwa (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 2
2018-09-22: W vs. [#38LHW] Eryk Anders (12-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 5:00 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jon Jones – Win%: 83.11
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jon Jones (2406.65) [+357.14] – Win%: 83.64
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jon Jones (2407.56) [+355.16] – Win%: 82.56
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 126, Thiago Santos 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (17-4-0, -353) vs. [#3/#10DD] Holly Holm (12-4-0, +278)
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #3 ranked Women’s fighter.
Holly Holm is the All-Time #18 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (3-0-0)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2018-05-12: W vs. [#5BW] Raquel Pennington (9-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5
2017-09-09: W vs. [#1FLY/#2DD/#3P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (17-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (2-1-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#5FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-06-17: W vs. [#18BW] Bethe Correia (10-4-1) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:09 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Amanda Nunes – Win%: 74.65
Elo Favorite (Standard): Amanda Nunes (1984.89) [+442.75] – Win%: 88.32
Elo Favorite (Modified): Amanda Nunes (1938.10) [+373.22] – Win%: 83.67
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Nunes 189, Holly Holm 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Nunes leads 7-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#4] Jorge Masvidal (33-13-0, +187) vs. [#12] Ben Askren (19-0-0, -232)
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #32 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Ben Askren is the All-Time #33 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (1-2-0)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#7WW] Darren Till (17-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2017-11-04: L vs. [#9WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-05-13: L vs. [#13WW] Demian Maia (27-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Askren (3-0-0)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#17WW] Robbie Lawler (28-13-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2017-11-24: W vs. [#111WW] Shinya Aoki (43-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1
2017-09-02: W vs. [#37MW] Zebaztian Kadestam (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ben Askren – Win%: 66.73
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ben Askren (2200.38) [+173.66] – Win%: 68.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ben Askren (2158.83) [+100.22] – Win%: 60.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jorge Masvidal 112, Ben Askren 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC 239 Preview

27 Jun , 2019,
oleg
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It’s been almost a year since I’ve done a UFC event preview blog. We are now halfway through 2019 – which will be remembered in MMA history as the start of the UFC & ESPN partnership – and quickly coming up on what is shaping up to be the biggest card of the year so far, assuming all the fighters make it to the opening bell without suffering injuries, failing USADA tests, or any other mishaps.

As UFC 239 approaches, the odds for the two champions on the card, Jon Jones and Amanda Nunes, are getting longer. Jones opened as roughly a -900 favorite against the aging Thiago Santos, but is now closer to -650. Nunes’ dip is less pronounced, going from about -375 to -330 in her bout with dangerous striker Holly Holm. Once fight night rolls round and you want to know a trusted source based on first-hand experiences for UFC betting, look no further than my top sportsbooks lists of sites which are given ratings from users and editors.

The appetizer to the main events, Ben Askren, has seen his odds improve. Initially a -215 favorite against Jorge Masvidal, Askren’s been bet up to -350. Bettors likely see Masvidal, who was taken down four times by Demian Maia, having a huge problem staying off the mat against Askren’s Olympic-level wrestling.

With all that in mind, here is a brief preview of the UFC 239 main card:

(C) [#1 LHW] Jon Jones vs [#6 LHW] Thiago Santos for the UFC Light Heavyweight title

While Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is unarguably one of, if not the greatest fighter in the history of the sport, he is just as unarguably one of the most controversial. Whatever trouble Jones manages to get himself into seems to always roll off him like water off a duck’s back – whether it be PED failures, lawsuits or running afoul of the law, he comes out of every scandal virtually unscathed – only to soon become entangled again in a new set of shenanigans.  While his troubles have not been an overall significant detriment to his career, they forced him to take an occasional break from action. Because of this Jones has only fought once a year dating back to 2014.  This trend has now been turned around, as he will be defending his title for the second time this year and taking his third fight overall in seven months since regaining the title in a rematch with Alexander Gustaffson at the end of 2018.

Jon’s slated opponent Thiago “Marreta” Santos,  much like his previous opponent Anthony Smith, started out his UFC career as a middleweight and had a somewhat spotty record prior to moving up to 205 lbs and winning three in a row before getting a shot at Jones. There, the similarities end.  While Anthony Smith is a well rounded fighter who is equally adept at taking his opponents out with strikes as he is at making them tap out, the Brazilian Hammer Santos focuses almost exclusively on destroying his opposition with a wide array of strikes thrown with the most damaging intentions. And while Smith was very passive and almost timid in his fight with Jones, which allowed Jon to effectively neutralize Anthony and cruise to a one-sided decision, I don’t feel that Santos will change his ultra-aggressive style for anyone. Unfortunately for Thiago, his aggression may very well play right into Jon’s hand. Marreta’s path to victory is clear: throw everything including the kitchen sink at Bones in hopes of dealing concussive damage. The longer this fight goes on, the less likely are the odds that Santos lands a knockout strike. And I just can’t pick someone whose best chance is a striker’s chance, to beat Jon Jones. Nor have I seen the type of takedown defense or ground skill from Santos that would allow him to survive until the final bell without Bones choking him out or destroying his face with brutal elbows from the top position as he’s done to many of his past opponents.

The real burning question headed into this fight is how many picograms of Turinabol will show up in Jon’s bloodstream this time around. I wonder if there are any sportsbooks taking prop bets on this action.

Prediction: Jon Jones by submission or TKO (ground and pound).

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 3: N’Gannou vs. dos Santos (06-29-2019)

26 Jun , 2019,
jcs
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Francis Ngannou (13-3-0, -260) vs. [#4] Junior dos Santos (21-5-0, +209)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #29 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #27 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (2-1-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#10HW+] Cain Velasquez (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#8HW+] Curtis Blaydes (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2018-07-07: L vs. [#6HW+] Derrick Lewis (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#6HW+] Derrick Lewis (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2
2018-12-01: W vs. [#26HW+] Tai Tuivasa (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-07-14: W vs. [#14HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Francis Ngannou – Win%: 69.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Junior dos Santos (2119.78) [+73.54] – Win%: 58.32
Elo Favorite (Modified): Junior dos Santos (2127.20) [+90.78] – Win%: 59.81
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 132, Junior dos Santos 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Junior dos Santos leads 3-2
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Flyweight (125)
[#1] Jussier Formiga (23-5-0, +152) vs. [#2] Joseph Benavidez (27-5-0, -182)
Jussier Formiga is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Joseph Benavidez is the All-Time #6 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jussier Formiga (3-0-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#5FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#57BW] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#121BW] Ben Nguyen (16-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Benavidez (2-1-0)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#4FLY] Dustin Ortiz (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#44BW] Alex Perez (22-5-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 4:19 of round 1
2018-06-09: L vs. [#57BW] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joseph Benavidez – Win%: 61.92
Elo Favorite (Standard): Joseph Benavidez (1983.70) [+9.59] – Win%: 51.10
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joseph Benavidez (1978.27) [+22.41] – Win%: 52.45
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier Formiga 98, Joseph Benavidez 161
Previous Match-up Record: Joseph Benavidez leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joseph Benavidez leads 6-4
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Welterweight (170)
[#16] Demian Maia (26-9-0, -198) vs. [#22] Anthony Rocco Martin (16-4-0, +164)
Demian Maia is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (1-2-0)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#64WW] Lyman Good (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2018-05-19: L vs. [#1WW/#6DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (15-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2017-10-28: L vs. [#3WW] Colby Covington (14-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Rocco Martin (3-0-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#62WW] Sergio Moraes (14-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#78WW] Jake Matthews (14-4-0) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:19 of round 3
2018-10-06: W vs. [#49WW] Ryan LaFlare (14-3-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:59 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Demian Maia – Win%: 63.68
Elo Favorite (Standard): Anthony Rocco Martin (1999.61) [+19.58] – Win%: 52.24
Elo Favorite (Modified): Anthony Rocco Martin (1995.08) [+34.50] – Win%: 53.77
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 147, Anthony Rocco Martin 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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