Category Archives: MMA Statistics

FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera/Moraes (06-01-2018)

28 May , 2018,
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Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Marlon Moraes (20-5-1, 135.4lb, -114) vs. [#6] Jimmie Rivera (21-1-0, 134.6lb, -109)
Marlon Moraes is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Jimmie Rivera is the All-Time #22 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Moraes (2-1-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#8BW] Aljamain Sterling (15-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [#9BW] John Dodson (20-9-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 27-30)
2017-06-03: L vs. [#7BW] Raphael Assuncao (26-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Jimmie Rivera (3-0-0)
2017-07-22: W vs. [#52BW] Thomas Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-09-10: W vs. [*] Urijah Faber (34-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-01-30: W vs. [#15BW] Iuri Alcantara (35-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marlon Moraes 174, Jimmie Rivera 314
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#42] Jake Ellenberger (31-13-0, 170.4lb, -171) vs. [#81] Ben Saunders (21-9-2, 169.4lb, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (1-2-0)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#36WW] Mike Perry (11-3-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:05 of round 2
2016-12-03: L vs. [#9WW] Jorge Masvidal (32-13-0) via TKO in 4:05 of round 1
2016-07-30: W vs. [#23WW] Matt Brown (21-16-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:46 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ben Saunders (1-2-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#41WW] Alan Jouban (16-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:38 of round 2
2017-05-28: L vs. [#67WW] Peter Sobotta (17-6-1) via TKO (Punches and Knee) in 2:29 of round 2
2017-01-15: W vs. [#99WW] Court McGee (18-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 405, Ben Saunders 97
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#26] Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 155.4lb) vs. [*] Leonardo Santos (16-3-2)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2017-11-18: W vs. [#40LW] Will Brooks (18-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2017-02-11: L vs. [#33LW] Islam Makhachev (15-1-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-25)
2016-09-10: W vs. [#528LW] Michael McBride (8-3-0) via TKO in 4:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Santos (3-0-0)
2016-10-08: W vs. [#84LW] Adriano Martins (28-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-12-12: W vs. [#4LW] Kevin Lee (17-3-0) via TKO in 3:26 of round 1
2015-03-21: W vs. [#58WW] Tony Martin (13-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:29 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 195, Leonardo Santos 601
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fighters Missing Weight: Win Percentage?

26 May , 2018,
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On the topic of Darren Till coming in overweight again, I’ve seen more than a few instances of people citing statistics where fighters won at an astoundingly high rate in bouts where they missed weight.

Acquiring good data on MMA is hard enough, so we don’t have specifics on the intended divisional limit for all bouts.  However, we do have a ton of bouts with weigh-in data for both fighters.

I first retrieved a count of all pro MMA bouts that ended in a win, where we have actual weigh-in data that shows that both fighters were between 100 and 212 pounds (26,383).  The idea here is to exclude instances of bad data and Heavyweights.

Of these, I then looked at bouts where one fighter weighed between 1.75 and 6 pounds more than the other fighter.  This range seems arbitrary, but I was trying to avoid “freak show” type of matches, while also excluding cases where one fighter may be 169.5 and another at 171 (for example).  I got a surprisingly high count — 5,719.

Of these 5,719 bouts, the heavier fighter won 3,120 – 54.55%

When I change that window to a range of 1.25 pounds to 5 pounds, the win rate changes to 55.14%.

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 222 (03-03-2018)

27 Feb , 2018,
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Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#2P4P] Cristiane Justino (19-1-0, -1663) vs. [#14BW] Yana Kunitskaya (10-3-0, +927)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2017-12-30: W vs. [#4FW] Holly Holm (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-07-29: W vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0) via TKO in 1:56 of round 3
2016-09-24: W vs. [#18BW] Lina Lansberg (7-3-0) via TKO in 2:29 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Yana Kunitskaya (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2017-08-31: W vs. [#28BW] Raquel Paaluhi (6-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-03-25: L vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:32 of round 2
2016-11-18: NC vs. [#5BW] Tonya Evinger (19-6-0)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 63, Yana Kunitskaya 184
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#3] Frankie Edgar (22-5-1, -174) vs. [#5] Brian Ortega (13-0-0, +145)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #10 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #34 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (2-1-0)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#35FW] Yair Rodriguez (10-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2016-11-12: W vs. [#4FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-14-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-07-09: L vs. [#2FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (3-0-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#13FW] Cub Swanson (25-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2017-07-29: W vs. [#16FW] Renato Carneiro (11-1-1) via SUB in 2:59 of round 3
2016-06-04: W vs. [#25LW] Clay Guida (34-17-0) via TKO in 4:40 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 294, Brian Ortega 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#47] Andre Soukhamthath (12-5-0, -129) vs. [#79] Sean OMalley (9-0-0, +105)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Soukhamthath (1-2-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#73BW] Luke Sanders (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2017-08-05: L vs. [#20BW] Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-03-04: L vs. [#129BW] Albert Morales (6-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (3-0-0)
2017-12-01: W vs. [#132BW] Terrion Ware (17-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-07-18: W vs. [#348BW] Alfred Khashakyan (8-4-0) via TKO in 4:14 of round 1
2017-05-05: W vs. [#552BW] David Nuzzo (9-2-0) via KO (Wheel Kick) in 2:15 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Soukhamthath 84, Sean OMalley 92
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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2017 Awards: Men’s Fighters of the Year

3 Jan , 2018,
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As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents.  It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

Winners (Tie): Demetrious Johnson, Max Holloway

A very tight call, too tight to call… so we’re going with co-winners for the first time.  DJ gets the nod with the #1 ranking for all 365 days, while Holloway twice beat an all-time great, albeit the same fighter.

 

3rd Place: Tyron Woodley

Like DJ, Woodley keeps churning out the quality performances and reigns over an even deeper division.  But this year, he takes a backseat to DJ and Holloway.

2017 Awards: Women’s Fighters of the Year

2 Jan , 2018,
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As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents.  It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

 

Winner: Cristiane Justino

With her win over Holm, Cyborg is right on Rousey’s heels for the title of best female MMA fighter ever.  For now, she’ll have to settle with being the best of 2017.

 

Runner-Up: Rose Namajunas

Rose was looking like the winner, right until the last weekend of the year.

 

3rd Place: Livia Renata Souza

Winning more than once and being one of the best fighters outside of the UFC is good enough to earn Souza the third position.

2017 Awards: Rookies of the Year

1 Jan , 2018,
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Men: Shamil Amirov

A 3-0-1 career record along with a draw against Rousimar Palhares, earns Amirov the award.

Honorable Mentions: Askhab Zulaev

 

Women: Liliya Shakirova

Soviet-based fighters tend to win these awards, due to their aggressive early matchmaking.  Shakirova’s competition is suspect, but I could see her landing a Flyweight spot on a lackluster Asia/Europe UFC card.

Honorable Mention: Sunna Rannveig Davidsdottir

2017 Awards: Most Improved Fighter

31 Dec , 2017,
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Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Volkan Oezdemir

With an ascent similar to that of Junior dos Santos, Oezdemir came out of nowhere to become a title contender in the UFC.

2017 Awards: Upsets of the Year

Dec , 2017,
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Note: We have two ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.

“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)

 

Most Noteworthy: Francis Ngannou KO(1) Alistair Overeem

More of a guard change than an upset.  Nevertheless, Ngannou made up a massive point difference in taking Overeem out.

 

Most Lopsided: Volkan Oezdemir SD(3) Ovince St. Preux

Were the actual outcome a part of this, Emmett/Lamas would get the award.  However, this is about proportional point differences and Oezdemir wasn’t even on the map before this fight.

2017 Awards: Most Noteworthy Match of the Year

Dec , 2017,
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Most Noteworthy Match of the Year:

Max Holloway TKO(3) Jose Aldo II

The “most noteworthy” match of the year isn’t about box office or the popular scene, instead it is a pretty basic calculation — a sum of quality if you will.  You can decide between the first or the rematch, they were basically the same fight.

2017 Awards: Comeback Fighter of the Year

Dec , 2017,
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As a refresher, our “Comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing.  You can see more details at the bottom of the post about specific qualifiers.

 

Comeback Fighter of the YearGeorges St. Pierre (2-time winner)

Talk about a no-brainer.  GSP comes off a massive layoff and stops the Middleweight champion, capturing UFC gold in a second division.  He’s the best ever.

 

Honorable Mentions: Al Iaquinta, Chan Sung Jung

To qualify, fighters must be in an active status at the end of the award year and did not have a fight in the previous calendar year or are coming off of a known major injury that caused an inactive period of 15+ months.