Category Archives: MMA Statistics

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik (12-07-2019)

2 Dec , 2019,
jcs

Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Alistair Overeem (45-17-0, -126) vs. [#30] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-0-0, +101)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #14 ranked Heavyweight and #47 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#17HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#39HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 1
2018-06-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Curtis Blaydes (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:56 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-06-22: W vs. [#146HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:09 of round 1
2019-02-02: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alistair Overeem – Win%: 52.84
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alistair Overeem (1983.34) [+318.07] – Win%: 81.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alistair Overeem (1992.91) [+308.45] – Win%: 79.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alistair Overeem (1963.54) [+264.11] – Win%: 87.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 231, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 35
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#10] Cynthia Calvillo (8-1-0, -102) vs. [#12] Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1, -122)

Last 3 Fights: Cynthia Calvillo (2-1-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#20SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-17: W vs. [#36FLY] Poliana Botelho (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2017-12-30: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (2-0-1)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#19SW] Tecia Torres (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#38SW] Jessica Aguilar (20-8-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-26)
2018-09-22: D vs. [#15SW] Randa Markos (10-7-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marina Rodriguez – Win%: 52.11
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marina Rodriguez (1624.83) [+25.56] – Win%: 52.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cynthia Calvillo (1658.27) [+32.65] – Win%: 53.57
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marina Rodriguez (1625.53) [+4.57] – Win%: 50.86
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cynthia Calvillo 293, Marina Rodriguez 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#29] Stefan Struve (29-11-0, +115) vs. [#71] Ben Rothwell (36-12-0, -141)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (1-2-0)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#59HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (16-6-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2
2018-07-22: L vs. [#32HW+] Marcin Tybura (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (0-3-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#11HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2016-04-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ben Rothwell – Win%: 55.71
Elo Favorite (Standard): Stefan Struve (1656.95) [+53.61] – Win%: 56.09
Elo Favorite (Modified): Stefan Struve (1682.55) [+8.52] – Win%: 50.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Stefan Struve (1654.50) [+8.03] – Win%: 51.57
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 287, Ben Rothwell 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 2-0
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare (11-16-2019)

13 Nov , 2019,
jcs

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0, +172) vs. [#6] Jan Blachowicz (24-8-0, -209)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #41 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (1-2-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#11MW] Jack Hermansson (20-5-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#14MW] Chris Weidman (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3
2018-05-12: L vs. [#10MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#11LHW] Luke Rockhold (16-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2019-02-23: L vs. [#2LHW] Thiago Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3
2018-09-15: W vs. [#15LHW] Nikita Krylov (25-7-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jan Blachowicz – Win%: 64.78
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ronaldo Souza (2000.46) [+27.83] – Win%: 53.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ronaldo Souza (2070.32) [+101.03] – Win%: 60.88
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ronaldo Souza (2043.82) [+88.86] – Win%: 66.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 203, Jan Blachowicz 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jan Blachowicz leads 1-0
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#25] Mauricio Rua (26-11-0, -258) vs. [#66] Paul Craig (12-4-0, +212)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #35 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (2-1-0)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#52LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 3
2018-07-22: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:29 of round 1
2017-03-11: W vs. [#46LHW] Gian Villante (17-11-0) via TKO in 0:59 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#160LHW] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-06-29: L vs. [#48LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#86LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:20 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mauricio Rua – Win%: 69.21
Elo Favorite (Standard): Mauricio Rua (1836.81) [+327.87] – Win%: 81.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Mauricio Rua (1846.21) [+275.63] – Win%: 76.97
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Mauricio Rua (1801.88) [+229.91] – Win%: 85.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 350, Paul Craig 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#7] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0, -357) vs. [#106] Jared Gordon (15-3-0, +284)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #40 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#28LW] Nik Lentz (30-10-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 2
2019-02-02: W vs. [#36LW] David Teymur (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 0:55 of round 2
2018-12-15: W vs. [#27LW] Jim Miller (31-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jared Gordon (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#279LW] Dan Moret (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#111LW] Joaquim Silva (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 3
2018-02-18: L vs. [#15LW] Diego Ferreira (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Charles Oliveira – Win%: 75.00
Elo Favorite (Standard): Charles Oliveira (2054.74) [+454.45] – Win%: 88.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Charles Oliveira (2054.19) [+446.20] – Win%: 87.58
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Charles Oliveira (2038.89) [+426.77] – Win%: 96.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 182, Jared Gordon 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 1: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar (11-09-2019)

4 Nov , 2019,
jcs

Featherweight (145)
[#8] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0, -254) vs. [#10] Calvin Kattar (20-3-0, +204)

Last 3 Fights: Zabit Magomedsharipov (3-0-0)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#13FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#227FW] Brandon Davis (10-8-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 4:36 of round 2
2018-04-07: W vs. [#190FW] Kyle Bochniak (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Calvin Kattar (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#18FW] Ricardo Lamas (19-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2018-10-27: W vs. [#123FW] Chris Fishgold (18-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:11 of round 1
2018-04-07: L vs. [#20FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Zabit Magomedsharipov – Win%: 68.56
Elo Favorite (Standard): Zabit Magomedsharipov (1968.45) [+62.43] – Win%: 57.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Zabit Magomedsharipov (1969.33) [+86.02] – Win%: 59.30
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Zabit Magomedsharipov (1961.90) [+67.70] – Win%: 62.31
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zabit Magomedsharipov 252, Calvin Kattar 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#9] Alexander Volkov (30-7-0, -288) vs. [#105] Greg Hardy (5-1-0, +232)
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #45 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (22-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3
2018-03-17: W vs. [*] Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 4
2017-09-02: W vs. [#28HW+] Stefan Struve (29-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-10-18: NC vs. [#141HW+] Ben Sosoli (7-2-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#163HW+] Juan Adams (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2019-04-27: W vs. [#338HW+] Dmitry Smoliakov (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alexander Volkov – Win%: 71.13
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexander Volkov (1953.20) [+546.90] – Win%: 92.40
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexander Volkov (1982.95) [+410.90] – Win%: 85.80
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexander Volkov (1929.06) [+408.31] – Win%: 95.71
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkov 399, Greg Hardy 22
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#141] Danny Roberts (16-5-0, +153) vs. [#377] Zelim Imadaev (8-1-0, -183)

Last 3 Fights: Danny Roberts (1-2-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#140WW] Michel Pereira (24-10-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punch) in 1:47 of round 1
2019-03-16: L vs. [#43WW] Claudio Henrique Da Silva (14-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:37 of round 3
2018-07-22: W vs. [#167WW] David Zawada (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Zelim Imadaev (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#70WW] Max Griffin (15-7-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2018-03-30: W vs. [*] Ivan Gluhak (17-9-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:13 of round 1
2017-09-29: W vs. [*] Yuri Izotov (9-10-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 3:17 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Zelim Imadaev – Win%: 62.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Danny Roberts (1527.63) [+161.83] – Win%: 67.69
Elo Favorite (Modified): Danny Roberts (1532.82) [+93.99] – Win%: 60.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Zelim Imadaev (1469.05) [+5.62] – Win%: 51.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Danny Roberts 175, Zelim Imadaev 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz (11-02-2019)

28 Oct , 2019,
jcs

Welterweight (170)
[#4] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0, -168) vs. [#9] Nate Diaz (20-11-0, +139)
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #31 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#20WW] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#14MW] Darren Till (17-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2017-11-04: L vs. [#12WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#11WW] Anthony Pettis (22-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-08-20: L vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-03-05: W vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jorge Masvidal – Win%: 59.97
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jorge Masvidal (2152.31) [+71.33] – Win%: 58.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jorge Masvidal (2158.80) [+91.98] – Win%: 59.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jorge Masvidal (2160.78) [+92.25] – Win%: 66.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jorge Masvidal 119, Nate Diaz 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7] Kelvin Gastelum (15-4-0, -165) vs. [#14] Darren Till (17-2-1, +137)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #38 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#1MW/#10P4P] Israel Adesanya (18-0-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-25: W vs. [*] Michael Bisping (30-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Darren Till (1-2-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2WW/#10DD] Tyron Woodley (19-4-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:19 of round 2
2018-05-27: W vs. [#12WW] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kelvin Gastelum – Win%: 59.60
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kelvin Gastelum (2058.95) [+142.40] – Win%: 65.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kelvin Gastelum (2041.07) [+126.07] – Win%: 63.46
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kelvin Gastelum (2026.87) [+95.42] – Win%: 66.89
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 203, Darren Till 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#12] Stephen Thompson (14-4-1, -152) vs. [#19] Vicente Luque (17-6-1, +126)
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #12 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-2-0)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#11WW] Anthony Pettis (22-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2018-05-27: L vs. [#14MW] Darren Till (17-2-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#26WW] Mike Perry (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#110WW] Derrick Krantz (24-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#88WW] Bryan Barberena (14-7-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:54 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Stephen Thompson – Win%: 57.68
Elo Favorite (Standard): Vicente Luque (1968.59) [+66.53] – Win%: 57.54
Elo Favorite (Modified): Stephen Thompson (1925.44) [+16.91] – Win%: 51.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Vicente Luque (1926.22) [+7.68] – Win%: 51.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stephen Thompson 224, Vicente Luque 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 20: Askren vs. Maia (10-26-2019)

21 Oct , 2019,
jcs

Welterweight (170)
[#13] Demian Maia (27-9-0, +135) vs. [#16] Ben Askren (19-1-0, -161)
Demian Maia is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Ben Askren is the All-Time #33 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#21WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (16-5-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#66WW] Lyman Good (20-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1
2018-05-19: L vs. [#1WW/#5DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (15-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Askren (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#4WW] Jorge Masvidal (34-13-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#17WW] Robbie Lawler (28-14-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2017-11-24: W vs. [#109WW] Shinya Aoki (44-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ben Askren – Win%: 59.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ben Askren (2077.05) [+5.49] – Win%: 50.63
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ben Askren (2060.15) [+39.18] – Win%: 54.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ben Askren (2091.33) [+67.66] – Win%: 62.10
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 119, Ben Askren 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demian Maia leads 2-1
.

Welterweight (170)
[#62] Laureano Staropoli (9-1-0, +123) vs. [#63] Muslim Salikhov (15-2-0, -147)

Last 3 Fights: Laureano Staropoli (3-0-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#79WW] Thiago Alves (23-14-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-17: W vs. [#1195WW] Hector Aldana (4-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-06-10: W vs. [#506MW] Carlos Alberto Bazan Roja (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Muslim Salikhov (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#100WW] Nordine Taleb (15-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:26 of round 1
2018-04-14: W vs. [#149WW] Ricky Rainey (13-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 2
2017-11-25: L vs. [#102WW] Alex Garcia (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Muslim Salikhov – Win%: 57.02
Elo Favorite (Standard): Muslim Salikhov (1746.38) [+198.69] – Win%: 71.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Muslim Salikhov (1755.55) [+209.25] – Win%: 71.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Muslim Salikhov (1738.87) [+179.73] – Win%: 79.85
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Laureano Staropoli 168, Muslim Salikhov 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#82] Ciryl Gane (4-0-0, -306) vs. [#94] Dontale Mayes (7-2-0, +245)

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#146HW+] Raphael Pessoa (9-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 1
2019-05-24: W vs. [#121HW+] Roggers Souza (9-2-0) via TKO in 4:26 of round 1
2018-09-21: W vs. [#280HW+] Adam Dyczka (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dontale Mayes (3-0-0)
2019-07-16: W vs. [#147HW+] Ricardo Prasel (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2018-11-17: W vs. [NA] Nkemdirim Oti (2-6-0) via SUB in 2:15 of round 3
2018-07-31: W vs. [#341HW+] Mitchell Sipe (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ciryl Gane – Win%: 72.22
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ciryl Gane (1465.81) [+3.56] – Win%: 50.41
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ciryl Gane (1622.22) [+94.49] – Win%: 60.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Dontale Mayes (1522.67) [+6.37] – Win%: 51.23
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ciryl Gane 77, Dontale Mayes 102
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN 6: Weidman vs. Reyes (10-18-2019)

14 Oct , 2019,
jcs

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11MW] Chris Weidman (14-4-0, +135) vs. [#9] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0, -162)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3
2017-07-22: W vs. [#7MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:45 of round 3
2017-04-08: L vs. [#6MW] Gegard Mousasi (46-7-2) via TKO (Knees) in 3:13 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Reyes (3-0-0)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#10LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#18LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#8MW] Jared Cannonier (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dominick Reyes – Win%: 59.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Chris Weidman (1983.66) [+110.40] – Win%: 62.35
Elo Favorite (Modified): Chris Weidman (2005.17) [+183.36] – Win%: 69.06
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Chris Weidman (2015.71) [+189.44] – Win%: 80.24
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 349, Dominick Reyes 216
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#9] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0, -109) vs. [#28] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0, -115)
Jeremy Stephens is the All-Time #17 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#28FW] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#8FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#9FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#15FW] Chan Sung Jung (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5
2017-05-13: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yair Rodriguez – Win%: 50.63
Elo Favorite (Standard): Yair Rodriguez (1870.78) [+50.18] – Win%: 55.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jeremy Stephens (1825.13) [+17.61] – Win%: 51.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jeremy Stephens (1845.52) [+28.92] – Win%: 55.39
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremy Stephens 27, Yair Rodriguez 27
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#106] Greg Hardy (5-1-0, -257) vs. [#139] Ben Sosoli (7-2-0, +203)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#161HW+] Juan Adams (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
2019-04-27: W vs. [#338HW+] Dmitry Smoliakov (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#140HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via DQ (Illegal Knee to Grounded Fighter) in 2:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ben Sosoli (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-08-27: NC vs. [#215HW+] Dustin Joynson (5-0-0)
2019-03-29: W vs. [#315HW+] Kelvin Fitial (15-9-2) via TKO in of round 1
2018-03-10: W vs. [*] Mike Turner (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 68.56
Elo Favorite (Standard): Greg Hardy (1406.29) [+46.25] – Win%: 55.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1587.05) [+231.19] – Win%: 73.34
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Greg Hardy (1459.00) [+70.83] – Win%: 63.67
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 90, Ben Sosoli 52
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 19: Joanna vs. Waterson (10-12-2019)

7 Oct , 2019,
jcs

Women Strawweight (115)
[#4/#9DD] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3-0, -395) vs. [#6] Michelle Waterson (17-6-0, +304)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #37 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1-2-0)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (18-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#19SW] Tecia Torres (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#8P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#20SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#22SW] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#18SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joanna Jedrzejczyk – Win%: 76.32
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michelle Waterson (1653.26) [+23.75] – Win%: 52.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1648.80) [+32.14] – Win%: 53.51
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1651.97) [+37.26] – Win%: 56.87
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 308, Michelle Waterson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanna Jedrzejczyk leads 3-2
.

Featherweight (145)
[#35] Cub Swanson (25-11-0, +159) vs. [#37] Kron Gracie (5-0-0, -196)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #15 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (0-3-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#33FW] Shane Burgos (12-1-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-08-04: L vs. [#19FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2018-04-21: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kron Gracie (3-0-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#94FW] Alex Caceres (15-12-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2016-12-31: W vs. [#211LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-13-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2016-09-25: W vs. [*] Hideo Tokoro (34-30-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 9:49 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kron Gracie – Win%: 63.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Cub Swanson (1680.82) [+134.61] – Win%: 64.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cub Swanson (1734.23) [+73.56] – Win%: 57.98
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Cub Swanson (1699.78) [+96.17] – Win%: 67.58
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 161, Kron Gracie 237
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#191] Thomas Gifford (15-8-0, +202) vs. [#219] Brok Weaver (14-4-0, -252)

Last 3 Fights: Thomas Gifford (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#115LW] Roosevelt Roberts (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-20: W vs. [#348LW] Christopher Brown (4-1-0) via SD ()
2018-07-28: W vs. [#300LW] Trey Ogden (12-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brok Weaver (3-0-0)
2019-08-13: W vs. [#515WW] Devin Smyth (9-2-0) via UD ()
2019-02-07: W vs. [#1114WW] James Freeman (6-3-0) via DQ in 3:27 of round 1
2018-12-21: W vs. [#281MW] Tyler Hill (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Brok Weaver – Win%: 68.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brok Weaver (1533.11) [+31.36] – Win%: 53.58
Elo Favorite (Modified): Thomas Gifford (1485.55) [+33.47] – Win%: 53.66
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Thomas Gifford (1534.26) [+82.31] – Win%: 65.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thomas Gifford 168, Brok Weaver 60
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Thomas Gifford leads 1-0
.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 18: Hermansson vs. Cannonier (09-28-2019)

23 Sep , 2019,
jcs

Middleweight (185)
[#6] Jack Hermansson (20-4-0, -243) vs. [#10] Jared Cannonier (12-4-0, +194)

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (3-0-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#18MW] David Branch (22-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:49 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#45MW] Gerald Meerschaert (29-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#17MW] Anderson Silva (34-10-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:47 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#18MW] David Branch (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2
2018-05-19: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jack Hermansson – Win%: 67.56
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jack Hermansson (2095.81) [+327.88] – Win%: 81.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jack Hermansson (2110.72) [+344.92] – Win%: 81.91
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jack Hermansson (2049.01) [+235.32] – Win%: 85.46
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 154, Jared Cannonier 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#18] Gunnar Nelson (17-4-1, +110) vs. [#30] Gilbert Burns (16-3-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Gunnar Nelson (1-2-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#5WW] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-27, 28-29)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#28WW] Alex Oliveira (20-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 2
2017-07-16: L vs. [#8WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#42WW] Alexey Kunchenko (20-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#643LW] Mike Davis (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#46LW] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gilbert Burns – Win%: 54.75
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gilbert Burns (1933.83) [+39.94] – Win%: 54.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gunnar Nelson (1959.08) [+41.29] – Win%: 54.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Gunnar Nelson (1939.74) [+34.77] – Win%: 56.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gunnar Nelson 196, Gilbert Burns 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#28] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0, +186) vs. [#31] Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-2-0, -233)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #43 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#16LHW] Nikita Krylov (25-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-10-06: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#49LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 2:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (3-0-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#75LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:44 of round 1
2019-02-23: W vs. [#41LHW] Gian Villante (17-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 1
2017-12-30: W vs. [#33LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michal Oleksiejczuk – Win%: 66.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1766.10) [+154.14] – Win%: 66.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1784.37) [+132.79] – Win%: 64.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1745.40) [+91.39] – Win%: 66.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 168, Michal Oleksiejczuk 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Tuning Glicko: What I learned & confirmed…

18 Sep , 2019,
jcs

If you’ve been keeping up, you already knew we added Glicko ratings to the ranking pages.  Glicko is essentially a modern, more complex version of Elo, the tried and true rating system used mainly for chess, which we also feature two flavors of.  To learn more about our adaptations, see the bottom of the FAQ.  The “nuts and bolts” on the Glicko system can be found here.

As for Glicko, without getting into the weeds and trying to explain the differences that require a Mathematics PhD to really understand, to make a long story short, it has an additional variable called “rating deviation” that essentially equates to confidence — the lower the RD, the more proven a rating is.  Furthermore, it outlines a protocol to increase rating deviation with inactivity.  There’s also a more recent version of the system known as Glicko-2, which adds another variable called volatility.

Through thousands of test iterations, I’ve learned the unfortunate truth that rating deviation is fairly inconsequential for MMA, while volatility is absolutely worthless for MMA.  This is part of the reason why I decided against bothering with Glicko-2.  The other reason, is the added complexity.  On a grander scale, it shows that I probably should’ve not bothered adding any variant of Glicko — especially since the author was not willing to provide guidance on tweaking some of factors to better accommodate MMA when I reached out to him about a year ago.  That aside.. I’ve yet to find a system that can predict fight outcomes beyond a success rate in the high 60’s, Glicko included.

The main issue with combat sports and ratings systems are four-fold:

  • Multitude of possible outcomes (decisions, submissions, knockouts, flukes, bad judges)
  • Inconsistent fight schedules (varying inactivity length, inactivity reasons, crap matchmaking)
  • Intangibles (location, weight divisions, varying rules, etc.)
  • Result information (though, this is getting better)

Why did I bother?  There comes occasions where I want to “prove” something… like hometown advantage or the real “worth” of a particular type of outcome vs. another.  Of course, there’s the standard rating system in use here that I developed, but it is more of a gigantic flowchart converted into a software program than it is a mathematically pure, single formula and as a result, quite a bit tougher to incorporate changes into.

So, what’s on tap, first?  Values of outcomes and their relevance…

Read More…