This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 317: Topuria vs Oliveira (06-28-2025)
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1DD][#5P4P][#1FW][#1FWUFC] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0, -417) vs. [#3][#3UFC] Charles Oliveira (35-10-0, +321)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#4LW] Max Holloway (26-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-02-17: W vs. [#7DD][#9P4P][#2FW] Alexander Volkanovski (27-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#11FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#22LW] Michael Chandler (23-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [*] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Ilia Topuria | -417 | 77.25% | |
| Elo K170 | Ilia Topuria | 2330.19 | +23.95 | 53.44% |
| Elo Modified | Charles Oliveira | 2305.68 | +31.04 | 54.45% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Oliveira | 2407.19 | +20.65 | 52.97% |
| WHR | Ilia Topuria | 2276.84 | +94.62 | 63.29% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ilia Topuria 28.4, Charles Oliveira 35.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 245, Charles Oliveira 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 1-0
.
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#4P4P][#5DD][#1][#1UFC] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0, -259) vs. [#5][#4UFC] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0, +211)
Alexandre Pantoja is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Kai Kara-France is the All-Time #16 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alexandre Pantoja (3-0-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#14FLY] Kai Asakura (21-5-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2024-05-04: W vs. [#10FLY] Steve Erceg (12-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#6DD][#2FLY] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Kai Kara-France (1-2-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#10FLY] Steve Erceg (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2023-06-03: L vs. [#9FLY] Amir Albazi (17-2-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#8DD][#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via TKO (Body Kick and Punches) in 4:34 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alexandre Pantoja | -259 | 69.17% | |
| Elo K170 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2201.64 | +360.73 | 88.86% |
| Elo Modified | Alexandre Pantoja | 2112.27 | +258.94 | 81.62% |
| Glicko-1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 2188.07 | +255.80 | 81.34% |
| WHR | Alexandre Pantoja | 2045.28 | +204.80 | 76.48% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexandre Pantoja 35.2, Kai Kara-France 32.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexandre Pantoja 203, Kai Kara-France 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexandre Pantoja leads 5-2
.
Flyweight (125)
[#13P4P][#6DD][#2][#2UFC] Brandon Royval (17-7-0, -118) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Joshua Van (14-2-0, -102)
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #14 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#6FLY] Tatsuro Taira (16-1-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#8DD][#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (23-8-2) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#4P4P][#5DD][#1FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Joshua Van (3-0-0)
2025-06-07: W vs. [#38FLY] Bruno Silva (14-8-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 3
2025-03-08: W vs. [#45FLY] Rei Tsuruya (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#59FLY] Cody Durden (17-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Brandon Royval | -118 | 51.73% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Royval | 2042.96 | +190.25 | 74.93% |
| Elo Modified | Brandon Royval | 1871.32 | +52.49 | 57.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Brandon Royval | 1918.10 | +43.45 | 56.22% |
| WHR | Brandon Royval | 1812.29 | +129.14 | 67.77% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Royval 32.8, Joshua Van 23.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Royval 259, Joshua Van 21
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Royval leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
We’re on a losing streak. Gotta get it together!
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree (06-21-2025)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#6][#6UFC] Jamahal Hill (13-3-0, +132) vs. [#11][#8UFC] Khalil Rountree (13-7-0, -160)
Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #31 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (1-2-0)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#3LHW] Jiri Prochazka (31-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:01 of round 3
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LHW] Alex Pereira (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: L vs. [#2LHW] Alex Pereira (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 4
2023-12-09: W vs. [*] Anthony Smith (38-22-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [#57HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Khalil Rountree | -160 | 58.81% | |
| Elo K170 | Jamahal Hill | 1926.61 | +42.10 | 56.03% |
| Elo Modified | Jamahal Hill | 1913.55 | +73.14 | 60.37% |
| Glicko-1 | Jamahal Hill | 1990.07 | +96.99 | 63.61% |
| WHR | Jamahal Hill | 1806.38 | +38.93 | 55.58% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jamahal Hill 34.1, Khalil Rountree 35.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jamahal Hill 154, Khalil Rountree 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#16][#12UFC] Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0, -113) vs. [#17][#13UFC] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-5-0, -108)
Rafael Fiziev is the All-Time #50 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rafael Fiziev (0-3-0)
2025-03-08: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#8LW] Mateusz Gamrot (25-3-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
2023-03-18: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (26-5-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ignacio Bahamondes (3-0-0)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#27LW] Jalin Turner (14-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
2024-09-14: W vs. [#56LW] Manuel Torres (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2024-04-06: W vs. [#164LW] Christos Giagos (20-12-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 3:34 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rafael Fiziev | -113 | 50.53% | |
| Elo K170 | Rafael Fiziev | 1897.31 | +7.72 | 51.11% |
| Elo Modified | Rafael Fiziev | 1897.44 | +17.85 | 52.57% |
| Glicko-1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 1979.74 | +37.43 | 55.36% |
| WHR | Ignacio Bahamondes | 1881.86 | +39.41 | 55.65% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rafael Fiziev 32.3, Ignacio Bahamondes 27.8
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael Fiziev 105, Ignacio Bahamondes 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Heavyweight (265)
[#7][#6UFC] Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0, -286) vs. [#71] Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1, +230)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#9P4P][#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (22-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2023-04-22: L vs. [#6HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:08 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rizvan Kuniev (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#205HW+] Hugo Cunha (8-3-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-04-07: NC vs. [#12HW+] Renan Ferreira (13-4-0)
2022-03-11: W vs. [#227HW+] Anthony Hamilton (22-12-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:17 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Curtis Blaydes | -286 | 70.97% | |
| Elo K170 | Curtis Blaydes | 2008.33 | +363.39 | 89.01% |
| Elo Modified | Curtis Blaydes | 2003.36 | +328.99 | 86.92% |
| Glicko-1 | Curtis Blaydes | 2078.02 | +336.12 | 87.38% |
| WHR | Curtis Blaydes | 1975.80 | +212.36 | 77.25% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Curtis Blaydes 34.3, Rizvan Kuniev 33.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 329, Rizvan Kuniev 305
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 1-0
.
Keep Reading
How Fighter Rankings Influence MMA Wagering Strategies
In mixed martial arts, fighter rankings play a pivotal role in shaping betting decisions. Bookmakers use these rankings to set betting lines, adjusting odds based on ranking shifts. Understanding this connection can enhance your betting strategy, offering insights into market dynamics.
The world of MMA betting is complex, with many factors influencing the odds. Among these, fighter rankings stand out as a critical element in shaping wagering choices. These rankings reflect a fighter’s performance and reputation, which directly impact how odds are determined. For bettors, understanding the interplay between rankings and odds can offer an edge in predicting outcomes. This knowledge not only helps in making informed bets but also enhances the overall betting experience. The role of bookmakers in this process is crucial, as they analyze these rankings to set competitive odds.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Usman vs Buckley (06-14-2025)
Welterweight (170)
[#6][#6UFC] Joaquin Buckley (21-6-0, -273) vs. [*] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0, +212)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#11WW] Colby Covington (17-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-10-05: W vs. [#16WW] Stephen Thompson (17-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:17 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#37MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (0-3-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#4MW] Khamzat Chimaev (14-0-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2023-03-18: L vs. [#4WW] Leon Edwards (22-5-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#4WW] Leon Edwards (22-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:04 of round 5
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Joaquin Buckley | -273 | 69.54% | |
| Elo K170 | Joaquin Buckley | 2203.42 | +32.44 | 54.65% |
| Elo Modified | Kamaru Usman | 2191.46 | +40.90 | 55.86% |
| Glicko-1 | Kamaru Usman | 2319.42 | +49.08 | 57.02% |
| WHR | Kamaru Usman | 2039.52 | +62.39 | 58.88% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Joaquin Buckley 31.1, Kamaru Usman 38.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 182, Kamaru Usman 602
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 2-1
.
Women Flyweight (125)
[#6][#6UFC] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0, -284) vs. [#12][#9UFC] Miranda Maverick (15-5-0, +221)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: L vs. [#9P4P][#4FLY] Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#15FLY] Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#11SW] Amanda Ribas (12-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (3-0-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#31FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-07-20: W vs. [#39FLY] Dione Barbosa (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#33FLY] Andrea Lee (13-11-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Rose Namajunas | -284 | 70.36% | |
| Elo K170 | Rose Namajunas | 1783.83 | +137.77 | 68.85% |
| Elo Modified | Rose Namajunas | 1762.72 | +85.46 | 62.06% |
| Glicko-1 | Rose Namajunas | 1759.79 | +78.05 | 61.05% |
| WHR | Rose Namajunas | 1718.21 | +93.69 | 63.17% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Rose Namajunas 32.9, Miranda Maverick 27.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 224, Miranda Maverick 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Middleweight (185)
[#45][#32UFC] Andre Petroski (13-3-0, +166) vs. [#65][#42UFC] Edmen Shahbazyan (14-5-0, -208)
Last 3 Fights: Andre Petroski (3-0-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#69MW] Rodolfo Vieira (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#181MW] Dylan Budka (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#130MW] Josh Fremd (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (2-1-0)
2025-02-15: W vs. [#181MW] Dylan Budka (8-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2024-08-24: L vs. [#51MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2024-03-23: W vs. [#180MW] A.J. Dobson (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Edmen Shahbazyan | -208 | 64.24% | |
| Elo K170 | Andre Petroski | 1737.48 | +156.61 | 71.13% |
| Elo Modified | Andre Petroski | 1745.67 | +123.15 | 67.02% |
| Glicko-1 | Andre Petroski | 1740.31 | +86.32 | 62.17% |
| WHR | Andre Petroski | 1647.43 | +61.18 | 58.71% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Andre Petroski 34.0, Edmen Shahbazyan 27.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Petroski 119, Edmen Shahbazyan 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Andre Petroski leads 2-1
.
Keep Reading
Fight Matrix Program – UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O’Malley 2 (06-07-2025)
Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#4DD][#4P4P][#1][#1UFC] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0, -287) vs. [#9DD][#2][#2UFC] Sean OMalley (18-2-0, +233)
Merab Dvalishvili is the All-Time #10 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #8 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Merab Dvalishvili (3-0-0)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#9DD][#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#9BW] Henry Cejudo (16-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#4DD][#4P4P][#1BW] Merab Dvalishvili (19-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#11BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#5FW] Aljamain Sterling (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Merab Dvalishvili | -287 | 71.17% | |
| Elo K170 | Merab Dvalishvili | 2373.66 | +245.72 | 80.44% |
| Elo Modified | Merab Dvalishvili | 2329.17 | +256.18 | 81.38% |
| Glicko-1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 2409.03 | +250.29 | 80.86% |
| WHR | Merab Dvalishvili | 2157.19 | +148.06 | 70.11% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Merab Dvalishvili 34.4, Sean OMalley 30.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Merab Dvalishvili 140, Sean OMalley 266
Previous Match-up Record: Merab Dvalishvili leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#5DD][#5P4P][#1][#1UFC] Julianna Pena (12-5-0, +437) vs. [#10P4P][#7DD][#2][#2UFC] Kayla Harrison (18-1-0, -619)
Julianna Pena is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#3BW] Raquel Pennington (16-9-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2022-07-30: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2021-12-11: W vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (3-0-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#5BW] Ketlen Vieira (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#11BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:47 of round 2
2023-11-24: W vs. [#5FW] Aspen Ladd (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kayla Harrison | -619 | 82.21% | |
| Elo K170 | Julianna Pena | 1843.78 | +29.76 | 54.27% |
| Elo Modified | Kayla Harrison | 1830.63 | +63.71 | 59.07% |
| Glicko-1 | Kayla Harrison | 1864.54 | +82.19 | 61.61% |
| WHR | Kayla Harrison | 1894.71 | +162.97 | 71.87% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Julianna Pena 35.8, Kayla Harrison 34.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julianna Pena 245, Kayla Harrison 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Middleweight (185)
[#18][#16UFC] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, +292) vs. [#22][#18UFC] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, -383)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #29 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#27WW] Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#3WW] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#23MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#42MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (18-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-02-10: L vs. [*] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#115MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Joe Pyfer | -383 | 75.66% | |
| Elo K170 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1926.30 | +200.26 | 76.00% |
| Elo Modified | Kelvin Gastelum | 1918.77 | +162.07 | 71.77% |
| Glicko-1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1964.07 | +109.80 | 65.30% |
| WHR | Kelvin Gastelum | 1848.38 | +101.64 | 64.23% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kelvin Gastelum 33.6, Joe Pyfer 28.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 350, Joe Pyfer 343
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading
This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays
Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
- Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
- Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
- Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
- Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber (05-31-2025)
Women Flyweight (125)
[#9P4P][#4][#4UFC] Erin Blanchfield (13-2-0, -242) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Maycee Barber (14-2-0, +196)
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #33 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#6FLY] Rose Namajunas (13-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#7P4P][#8DD][#2FLY] Manon Fiorot (12-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#10FLY] Taila Santos (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#23FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#11SW] Amanda Ribas (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-25: W vs. [#35FLY] Andrea Lee (13-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Erin Blanchfield | -242 | 67.68% | |
| Elo K170 | Erin Blanchfield | 1906.59 | +66.18 | 59.41% |
| Elo Modified | Erin Blanchfield | 1891.88 | +103.03 | 64.41% |
| Glicko-1 | Erin Blanchfield | 1911.05 | +136.33 | 68.67% |
| WHR | Erin Blanchfield | 1751.23 | +59.89 | 58.53% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Erin Blanchfield 26.0, Maycee Barber 27.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Erin Blanchfield 210, Maycee Barber 448
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Lightweight (155)
[#8][#8UFC] Mateusz Gamrot (24-3-0, -166) vs. [#42][#24UFC] Ludovit Klein (23-4-1, +138)
Mateusz Gamrot is the All-Time #39 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Mateusz Gamrot (2-1-0)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#7LW] Dan Hooker (24-12-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#27WW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-17-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#16LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-4-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:03 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Ludovit Klein (3-0-0)
2024-09-28: W vs. [#164LW] Roosevelt Roberts (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#63LW] Thiago Moises (19-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#486BW] A.J. Cunningham (11-5-0) via TKO (Front Kick to the Body and Punches) in 4:36 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mateusz Gamrot | -166 | 59.76% | |
| Elo K170 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2048.58 | +143.23 | 69.52% |
| Elo Modified | Mateusz Gamrot | 2059.16 | +165.11 | 72.12% |
| Glicko-1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2126.82 | +206.41 | 76.64% |
| WHR | Mateusz Gamrot | 1988.49 | +172.34 | 72.95% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mateusz Gamrot 34.4, Ludovit Klein 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateusz Gamrot 287, Ludovit Klein 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#20][#16UFC] Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1, -184) vs. [#63][#30UFC] Bruno Lopes (14-1-0, +153)
Last 3 Fights: Dustin Jacoby (1-2-0)
2024-12-14: W vs. [#33LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:44 of round 3
2024-06-08: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 1
2023-12-16: L vs. [#24LHW] Alonzo Menifield (16-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Bruno Lopes (3-0-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#112LHW] Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-08-13: W vs. [#152LHW] Mikheil Sazhiniani (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2024-01-27: W vs. [#189LHW] Marcos Brigagao (17-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:58 of round 2
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Dustin Jacoby | -184 | 62.10% | |
| Elo K170 | Dustin Jacoby | 1712.78 | +48.51 | 56.93% |
| Elo Modified | Dustin Jacoby | 1747.71 | +75.07 | 60.64% |
| Glicko-1 | Dustin Jacoby | 1797.21 | +80.20 | 61.34% |
| WHR | Dustin Jacoby | 1766.68 | +111.90 | 65.57% |
Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Dustin Jacoby 37.1, Bruno Lopes 32.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Jacoby 168, Bruno Lopes 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading