Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1BW/#3DD/#5P4P] T.J. Dillashaw (16-3-0, 124.6lb, -219) vs. [#1/#5DD/#6P4P] Henry Cejudo (13-2-0, 124.4lb, +177)
T.J. Dillashaw is the All-Time #35 ranked Absolute fighter.
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: T.J. Dillashaw (3-0-0)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#3BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-2-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2017-11-04: W vs. [#3BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 2
2016-12-30: W vs. [#5BW] John Lineker (31-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#7P4P] Demetrious Johnson (27-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#55BW] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#10FLY] Wilson Reis (23-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): T.J. Dillashaw – Win%: 65.53
Elo Favorite (Standard): T.J. Dillashaw (2184.33) [+139.97] – Win%: 65.46
Elo Favorite (Modified): T.J. Dillashaw (2170.38) [+210.59] – Win%: 71.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: T.J. Dillashaw 168, Henry Cejudo 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (264)
[#162] Greg Hardy (3-0-0, 264.0lb, -535) vs. [#169] Allen Crowder (9-3-0, 252.6lb, +386)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (3-0-0)
2018-09-29: W vs. [NA] Ray Jones (0-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-08-07: W vs. [#375HW+] Tebaris Gordon (3-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 1
2018-06-12: W vs. [#367HW+] Austen Lane (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Allen Crowder (2-1-0)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#11HW+] Justin Willis (8-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 1
2017-08-29: W vs. [#133HW+] Dontale Mayes (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:12 of round 3
2017-05-20: W vs. [*] Robert Neal (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 80.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Allen Crowder (1295.04) [+10.69] – Win%: 51.22
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1455.17) [+108.54] – Win%: 61.66
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 112, Allen Crowder 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#19] Yancy Medeiros (15-5-0, 155.4lb, +384) vs. [#43] Gregor Gillespie (12-0-0, 155.2lb, -531)

Last 3 Fights: Yancy Medeiros (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: L vs. [#14WW] Donald Cerrone (34-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2017-12-02: W vs. [#20WW] Alex Oliveira (20-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 3
2017-06-03: W vs. [#91WW] Erick Silva (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gregor Gillespie (3-0-0)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#100LW] Vinc Pichel (11-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:06 of round 2
2018-01-27: W vs. [#42FW] Jordan Rinaldi (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2017-09-16: W vs. [*] Jason Gonzalez (11-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gregor Gillespie – Win%: 80.28
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gregor Gillespie (1837.96) [+7.26] – Win%: 50.83
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gregor Gillespie (1830.40) [+16.73] – Win%: 51.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yancy Medeiros 335, Gregor Gillespie 232
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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With the recent acquisitions of Eddie Alvarez and Demetrious Johnson, One Championship signed two proven legends still in their prime, or at worst, not far removed from it.

That’s the good part.  The bad part is that this may be the start of a trend — one that sees mid to mid-late career high profile fighters leave the UFC for a smooth descent to their careers.

Many will likely see this as a positive, mostly because UFC is a bit of a monopoly as it pertains to the upper echelon of the sport.  However, monopolies can be good in a sport where matchmaking on the lesser levels of the sport is mediocre at best.

This type of lackluster matchmaking is truly on display in Alvarez’s and Johnson’s next fights, neither of which are coming back from major injury or inactivity.

Last 4 Opponents + OneFC Scheduled Bouts

Historical ranks used are from the Generated Historical Rankings set previous to the bout.

Now, I don’t know about you… but it feels like something is wrong with this picture.

Not only is OneFC headquartered on the opposite side of the globe and not only are they responsible for their wonky divisional structure that nobody really 100% understands (at least not the last time I looked) but the opposition quality that Alvarez & Johnson are facing is extremely lacking.  This isn’t the type of crappy matchmaking that plagues the lower levels of MMA — it is far worse.  I seriously doubt that a commission would sanction this match anywhere in the US, outside of say.. one located on a Native American reservation in Montana.

Boxing catches grief, because giant favorites are a common theme, especially on undercards.  MMA is not boxing and upsets happen much more frequently.  I have intimate knowledge of the rating system and database over at BoxRec, as well as the ones used here, obviously, and I estimate that upsets on the relevant level happen about 2.5 times as much in MMA, than they do in boxing.  Having said that, what happens if Alvarez or Johnson lose?  After all, shit happens.  What happens if they win?  Who cares?

I hope the money is worth it.

Notable Info

• Semi-annual community adjustment made for male JP population.
• Data issue resolved where many TUF bouts were removed from the database.

Notable Info

• End-of-year current rankings update, even though it didn’t finish until 2019.
• 2018 awards to come in the next week or so.

Notable Info

• Jon Jones jumped from #5 to #3 on the Absolute list, after his win at last night’s UFC.  He is in a virtual tie with Jose Aldo, Anderson Silva and Fedor Emelianenko for the runner-up position.
• Regardless of Dana White’s opinions of the All-Time standing of Amanda Nunes, she remains at #3 on the All-Time Women’s list, as her career achievements are not yet at the level of Ronda Rousey or Cris Cyborg. However, last night’s win gave her a comfortable lead over the #4, Joanna Jedrzedczyk, whose name I almost spelled correctly on the first try.

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[*] Jon Jones (22-1-0, -279) vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-4-0, +223)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #1 ranked Light Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2017-07-29: NC vs. [#1HW+/#2DD/#1P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0)
2016-04-23: W vs. [#17LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-12-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
2015-01-03: W vs. [#1HW+/#2DD/#1P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (2-1-0)
2017-05-28: W vs. [#5LHW] Glover Teixeira (27-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 5
2016-09-03: W vs. [#8LHW] Jan Blachowicz (23-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2015-10-03: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD/#1P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 49-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jon Jones – Win%: 70.39
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jon Jones (2366.85) [+318.97] – Win%: 81.11
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jon Jones (2367.71) [+291.36] – Win%: 78.17
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 518, Alexander Gustafsson 580
Previous Match-up Record: Jon Jones leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 4 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (16-4-0, +211) vs. [#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Cristiane Justino (20-1-0, -264)
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #3 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #1 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (3-0-0)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#6BW] Raquel Pennington (9-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5
2017-09-09: W vs. [#1FLY/#4DD/#5P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (16-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2016-12-30: W vs. [*] Ronda Rousey (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#11BW] Yana Kunitskaya (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
2017-12-30: W vs. [#3BW/#9DD] Holly Holm (12-4-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-07-29: W vs. [#13BW] Tonya Evinger (19-7-0) via TKO in 1:56 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Cristiane Justino – Win%: 69.28
Elo Favorite (Standard): Amanda Nunes (1895.59) [+10.50] – Win%: 51.20
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cristiane Justino (1890.09) [+45.36] – Win%: 54.95
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Nunes 231, Cristiane Justino 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#41] Carlos Condit (30-12-0, +150) vs. [#33LW] Michael Chiesa (14-4-0, -181)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (0-3-0)
2018-04-14: L vs. [#20WW] Alex Oliveira (20-6-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 2
2017-12-30: L vs. [#17WW] Neil Magny (21-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-08-27: L vs. [#15WW] Demian Maia (25-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (1-2-0)
2018-07-07: L vs. [#10LW] Anthony Pettis (21-8-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 0:52 of round 2
2017-06-25: L vs. [#7LW] Kevin Lee (17-4-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:37 of round 1
2016-04-16: W vs. [#19LW] Beneil Dariush (15-4-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:20 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michael Chiesa – Win%: 61.68
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michael Chiesa (1806.78) [+40.94] – Win%: 54.66
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michael Chiesa (1781.86) [+3.84] – Win%: 50.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 259, Michael Chiesa 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notable Info

• Fixed bug which incorrectly weighted lopsided decisions.  This affected over 500 bouts, so there will be fluctuations throughout the rankings.