Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0, +197) vs. [#7] Curtis Blaydes (12-2-0, -245)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #41 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#3HW+] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (22-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 2
2018-12-01: W vs. [#44HW+] Tai Tuivasa (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#17HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [#16HW+] Justin Willis (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-25)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#3HW+] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Curtis Blaydes – Win%: 67.83
Elo Favorite (Standard): Junior dos Santos (2018.18) [+70.21] – Win%: 57.95
Elo Favorite (Modified): Junior dos Santos (2029.22) [+65.99] – Win%: 57.17
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Junior dos Santos (2019.20) [+66.54] – Win%: 62.07
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 210, Curtis Blaydes 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Curtis Blaydes leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#7] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0, -260) vs. [#25] Michael Chiesa (16-4-0, +209)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#5WW] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#6LW] Kevin Lee (18-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4
2018-11-30: L vs. [#1WW/#3DD/#6P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#63WW] Diego Sanchez (29-12-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#75WW] Carlos Condit (30-13-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 0:56 of round 2
2018-07-07: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (22-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 0:52 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Rafael dos Anjos – Win%: 69.05
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rafael dos Anjos (2029.40) [+89.18] – Win%: 60.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rafael dos Anjos (1994.37) [+67.74] – Win%: 57.36
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Rafael dos Anjos (2007.12) [+76.27] – Win%: 63.60
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 189, Michael Chiesa 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael dos Anjos leads 2-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#7] Josh Emmett (15-2-0, -103) vs. [#32] Arnold Allen (15-1-0, -120)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#26FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#84LW] Michael Johnson (19-15-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-02-24: L vs. [#14FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Arnold Allen (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#100FW] Gilbert Melendez (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#86FW] Jordan Rinaldi (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-05-27: W vs. [#81FW] Mads Burnell (13-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:41 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Arnold Allen – Win%: 51.80
Elo Favorite (Standard): Josh Emmett (1954.82) [+113.53] – Win%: 62.68
Elo Favorite (Modified): Josh Emmett (1940.09) [+106.52] – Win%: 61.45
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Josh Emmett (1937.01) [+96.57] – Win%: 67.16
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 196, Arnold Allen 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#16] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0, +247) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0, -316)
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-05-04: W vs. [#12LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#4P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2016-11-12: W vs. [#27WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2016-08-20: W vs. [#11WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Conor McGregor – Win%: 72.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Conor McGregor (2172.99) [+190.54] – Win%: 70.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Conor McGregor (2111.55) [+152.79] – Win%: 66.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Conor McGregor (2112.86) [+120.48] – Win%: 70.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 126, Conor McGregor 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Conor McGregor leads 3-2
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Holly Holm (12-5-0, -137) vs. [#5] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0, +112)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#6BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#2BW/#8DD] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5

Odds Favorite (Implied): Holly Holm – Win%: 55.06
Elo Favorite (Standard): Raquel Pennington (1583.55) [+56.64] – Win%: 56.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Raquel Pennington (1542.93) [+10.96] – Win%: 51.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Holly Holm (1561.35) [+30.00] – Win%: 55.62
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 196, Raquel Pennington 182
Previous Match-up Record: Holly Holm leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#18] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1, +110) vs. [#58] Maurice Greene (8-3-0, -135)

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#14HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-09-15: W vs. [#19HW+] Mark Hunt (13-14-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#36HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-06-29: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#94HW+] Jeff Hughes (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Maurice Greene – Win%: 54.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Oleynik (1634.72) [+94.73] – Win%: 60.65
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Oleynik (1693.73) [+155.53] – Win%: 66.39
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexey Oleynik (1680.24) [+164.59] – Win%: 78.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 182, Maurice Greene 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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During the broadcast of Bellator 237, former referee turned commentator “Big” John McCarthy mentioned that Michael Page’s schedule through his career so far has been similar in terms of difficulty to that of former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva through the same stretch. Since Page has developed the reputation of a can smasher, this comment raised the ire of many MMA fans on social media. On its face, the comment is absurd. In his first 18 fights, Silva claimed the Shooto middleweight (168-pound) championship and knocked off a former UFC welterweight champion. But is the comparison really that outlandish?

Using Fight Matrix ranking points, it is possible to approximate the level of difficulty both fighters have faced through their first 18 fights. Every year, the website publishes the “Upsets of the Year” award. The most simple calculation is “Most Noteworthy,” which is the difference in ranking points (ranking points of a fighter minus the ranking points of an opponent). The higher the number, the larger the favorite. Through their first 18 fights, Page’s average most noteworthy score is 22.83, while Silva’s 21.61. However, that does not tell the entire story. Page’s average is buttressed by his fight against Douglas Lima. He went in as a heavy underdog against the Bellator champion and got knocked out in the second round. Without that fight, his average most noteworthy score rises to 41.35.

Also, Page’s level of opposition has declined significantly following his only career defeat. He has been a heavy favorite in his last three fights over Richard Keily, Gianni Melillo and Shinzo Anzai. The spike on the following chart is quite evident.

(Click here for the interactive Tableau Public version of this chart)

It would also be unfair to Silva to ignore that fact that his a large portion of his early opposition went on to have solid careers. When he fought Luiz Azeredo, Fabricio Camoes and Roan Carneiro they were a combined 3-2. All three went on to have extensive careers in major promotions such as the UFC and Pride FC. While those fighters blossomed later in their careers, it seems unlikely that will happen for some of Page’s early opponents. His first two opponents, Ben Dishman and Miguel Bernard, are still a combined 0-6 nearly eight years later.

While it does seem like large McCarthy was shilling from the commentary booth, Page’s early career run has not been that facile. However, his team and Bellator have clearly tried to give him a softer touch as of late.

Richard Mann is a regular contributor to @ESPNMMA, @FightMetric, @RotoWireMMA and @InterMat. You can follow him on Twitter at @richardamann.

Women Featherweight (154)
[#5] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0, 153.6lb, +711) vs. [#7] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0, 154.8lb, -1245)

Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (2-1-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#8FW] Sarah Kaufman (21-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:31 of round 1
2019-05-09: L vs. [#7FW] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:32 of round 1
2019-07-11: W vs. [#55FW] Morgan Frier (4-3-0) via Submission (Key Lock) in 3:35 of round 1
2019-05-09: W vs. [#5FW] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kayla Harrison – Win%: 88.24
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kayla Harrison (1440.10) [+10.97] – Win%: 51.25
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kayla Harrison (1547.65) [+50.90] – Win%: 55.55
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kayla Harrison (1481.80) [+14.37] – Win%: 52.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Larissa Pacheco 81, Kayla Harrison 81
Previous Match-up Record: Kayla Harrison leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (169)
[#39] David Michaud (18-5-0, 169.5lb, +113) vs. [#53] Ray Cooper III (19-7-1, 168.6lb, -142)

Last 3 Fights: David Michaud (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#69WW] Glaico Franca (22-6-0) via MD ()
2019-10-11: W vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via UD ()
2019-07-11: W vs. [#80WW] Handesson Ferreira (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ray Cooper III (1-1-1)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#89WW] Chris Curtis (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:11 of round 2
2019-10-11: D vs. [#88WW] Sadibou Sy (8-5-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-07-11: L vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ray Cooper III – Win%: 55.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): David Michaud (1821.04) [+103.32] – Win%: 61.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): David Michaud (1785.77) [+65.77] – Win%: 57.15
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): David Michaud (1763.86) [+5.34] – Win%: 51.00
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Michaud 81, Ray Cooper III 81
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: David Michaud leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (258)
[#20] Ali Isaev (8-0-0, 258.8lb, -507) vs. [#36] Jared Rosholt (20-7-0, 250.6lb, +366)

Last 3 Fights: Ali Isaev (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#35HW+] Denis Goltsov (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD ()
2019-08-08: W vs. [#138HW+] Carl Seumanutafa (12-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Rosholt (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#86HW+] Muhammed DeReese (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2019-08-08: W vs. [#55HW+] Satoshi Ishii (22-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ali Isaev – Win%: 79.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ali Isaev (1777.99) [+35.78] – Win%: 54.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ali Isaev (1818.91) [+48.46] – Win%: 55.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ali Isaev (1799.19) [+51.12] – Win%: 59.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ali Isaev 61, Jared Rosholt 61
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Atomweight Championship (108)
[#1/#6DD/#5P4P] Ayaka Hamasaki (19-2-0, 107.7lb, -106) vs. [#2/#10DD] Seo Hee Ham (22-8-0, 107.8lb, -128)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Seo Hee Ham is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2019-08-18: W vs. [#14AW] Suwanan Boonsorn (4-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2019-06-02: W vs. [#3AW] Jinh Yu Frey (8-4-0) via UD ()
2018-12-31: W vs. [#8AW] Kanna Asakura (16-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Seo Hee Ham (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#7AW] Miyuu Yamamoto (5-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2
2019-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Tomo Maesawa (13-10-0) via TKO (Knees) in 3:14 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#11AW] Jeong Eun Park (7-6-1) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Seo Hee Ham – Win%: 52.17
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ayaka Hamasaki (1721.26) [+148.00] – Win%: 66.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ayaka Hamasaki (1718.22) [+128.62] – Win%: 63.71
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ayaka Hamasaki (1697.97) [+94.67] – Win%: 67.12
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 135, Seo Hee Ham 80
Previous Match-up Record: Ayaka Hamasaki leads 2-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ayaka Hamasaki leads 6-4
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Lightweight (157)
[#43] Tofiq Musayev (16-3-0, 156.9lb, -170) vs. [#45] Johnny Case (27-6-1, 156.9lb, +132)

Last 3 Fights: Tofiq Musayev (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#87LW] Damien Brown (19-13-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:14 of round 1
2019-06-02: W vs. [#119LW] Daron Cruickshank (22-13-0) via UD ()
2018-12-31: W vs. [#431LW] Nobumitsu Osawa (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Case (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#129LW] Roberto de Souza (9-1-0) via TKO (Submission to Punch) in 1:15 of round 1
2019-07-28: W vs. [#202LW] Satoru Kitaoka (42-20-9) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2018-12-31: W vs. [#103LW] Yusuke Yachi (21-9-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 4:47 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tofiq Musayev – Win%: 59.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Johnny Case (1811.05) [+18.84] – Win%: 52.15
Elo Favorite (Modified): Johnny Case (1806.39) [+9.23] – Win%: 51.01
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Johnny Case (1802.04) [+8.14] – Win%: 51.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tofiq Musayev 80, Johnny Case 80
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (157)
[#12] Patricky Freire (22-8-0, 156.4lb, -443) vs. [#82] Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (10-1-0, 155.8lb, +316)
Patricky Freire is the All-Time #46 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Patricky Freire (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#203LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-14-2) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2019-02-09: W vs. [#88LW] Ryan Scope (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-09-21: W vs. [#345LW] Roger Huerta (24-12-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#210LW] Hiroto Uesako (18-9-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:55 of round 1
2019-04-21: L vs. [#95FW] Mikuru Asakura (12-1-0) via UD ()
2018-08-12: W vs. [#103LW] Yusuke Yachi (21-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:32 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Patricky Freire – Win%: 77.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Patricky Freire (1998.49) [+376.15] – Win%: 84.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Patricky Freire (1941.33) [+300.83] – Win%: 78.86
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Patricky Freire (1906.50) [+211.70] – Win%: 83.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Patricky Freire 80, Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos 80
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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