Kamaru Usman (20–4–0, NR / #5 UFC) vs. Joaquin Buckley (21–6–0, #6 WW / #7 UFC)
June 14, 2025 – State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA, USA
Betting Odds Snapshot
- Buckley: –225 to –270 (i.e., implied 69–73% favorite)
- Usman: +190 to +235 (implied 30–34%)
Analysis: Buckley enters as solid favorite due to recent momentum, while Usman is viewed as the high-upside underdog against an opponent on a six-fight win streak .
Tactical and Strategic Breakdown
- Wrestling & Control
Usman’s wrestling game—2.82 takedowns per fight with ~45% accuracy—will be decisive if he can drag Buckley into grappling exchanges - Striking Styles
- Usman: High-volume, efficient striking with strong precision.
- Buckley: Power striker; known for explosive knockouts.
- Recent Form & Confidence
- Buckley: Riding a six-fight winning streak and multiple KO clinic performances
- Usman: Coming off UFC 294 decision (majority) loss but historically a dominant champion
- Psychological Battle
Expect Buckley to seek early fireworks, relying on pace and power. Usman’s path hinges on grounding Buckley and controlling the fight distance and tempo.
Betting
- Buckley ML (–270): Safe choice due to form and favorite status.
- Usman ML (+190): Good value if you trust his grappling edge.
- Props:
- Buckley by KO/TKO Round 1–2: High-reward underdog play.
- Usman by Decision: Good chance if he neutralizes Buckley’s offense.
- Total Rounds Over 2.5: Likely if Usman scores takedowns.
Conclusion
This fight pits Usman’s wrestling discipline against Buckley’s raw knockout power. Ideally for Buckley: fast explosive start. For Usman: slow and steady grind. If Usman successfully implements his wrestling-heavy strategy, a decision win is probable. But Buckley’s KO threat keeps the bout–and betting–interesting.
Final Take: Buckley is the momentum favorite, but a smart Usman has clear strategic pathways to victory. The best bets appear to be Buckley early finish and Usman decision.
MMA Promoter | Event Organizer | Coach | Analyst
I am the Founder and President of Real Fight Promotion (RFP), one of the most established MMA organizations in Ukraine. With over 40 years of experience in combat sports and a background in law enforcement special forces, I’ve organized more than 100 MMA events, coached high-level fighters, and contributed to the development of MMA at the national level. I actively collaborate with leading MMA platforms and, as a published author, remain committed to advancing the sport of MMA in Ukraine.