Category Archives: MMA

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (03-23-2024)

Mar 18, 2024
Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-6-0, -177) vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0, +146)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#7DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via SD ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#5FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -177 61.11%
Elo K170 Rose Namajunas 1779.79 +124.26 67.15%
Elo Modified Rose Namajunas 1755.84 +84.86 61.97%
Glicko-1 Rose Namajunas 1735.05 +75.64 60.72%
WHR Rose Namajunas 1699.09 +61.24 58.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 203, Amanda Ribas 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#60] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +209) vs. [#68] Karl Williams (9-1-0, -267)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#120HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#169HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [*] Jimmy Lawson (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karl Williams -267 69.21%
Elo K170 Karl Williams 1548.72 +32.94 54.73%
Elo Modified Karl Williams 1622.79 +50.33 57.19%
Glicko-1 Justin Tafa 1623.74 +50.05 57.15%
WHR Justin Tafa 1521.04 +53.90 57.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Tafa 196, Karl Williams 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#63] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0, -192) vs. [#156] A.J. Dobson (7-2-0, +156)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#25MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [*] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: A.J. Dobson (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#175MW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#80MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#107MW] Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edmen Shahbazyan -192 62.73%
Elo K170 Edmen Shahbazyan 1578.86 +173.80 73.12%
Elo Modified Edmen Shahbazyan 1592.60 +100.31 64.05%
Glicko-1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1618.65 +166.34 72.26%
WHR Edmen Shahbazyan 1543.43 +80.90 61.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 308, A.J. Dobson 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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WHR Parlays – The Rest of March…

Mar 14, 2024
Jason

We debuted the “WHR Parlay” series recently and you can view that here.  We got so very close to hitting and as a result, I thought we’d try again.

An issue with the parlays, is that there are a lot checkboxes that a fight must tick off to qualify.  Therefore, I am combining multiple events in one post and am also opening it up to all of MMA.  Though there is not much betting action on non-UFC fights (as far as I can tell), if they qualify and I have the info, I will throw them in.

In this post, I will also throw in a second parlay… a collection of the best bets (favorites included).  This one is a bit more subjective as I need to “draw the line” on the amount of fights to include.

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Top UFC Events for Prediction in 2024

Mar 14, 2024
Fairfax

The 2024 UFC campaign is well underway, with several incredible fight nights behind us.

Magomed Ankalaev’s vicious second-round knockout of Johnny Walker kicked off the calendar year. It was followed by UFC 297, where nearly all bouts went the distance, highlighted by Dricus Du Plessis’ beating of Sean Strickland.

We had a great battle between Imamov and Dolidze, a five-round thriller between Hermansson and Pyfer, and Royval’s upset win against Moreno. Ilia Topuria remained undefeated by knocking out Volkanovski in UFC 298, while UFC 299 took place just a few days ago with O’Malley launching his bantamweight title defense by battering Marlon Vera.

As another exciting UFC season continues, we look at the rest of the schedule and share our expectations for some of the top bouts. If you want to make your predictions count, feel free to check out the UFC odds on sportzino.com.

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MMA Rule Changes and Controversies

Mar 14, 2024
Fairfax

MMA is rapidly becoming one of the most popular sports in the world. The competitions have managed to attract numerous fans from all over the world. Competition is at an all-time high and the number of highlight reels is infinite.

These days, the UFC is not the only prestigious competition. You have the likes of PFL, Bellator and ONE, all of which have fantastic fighters. PFL recently purchased Bellator and the joint venture is on its way to become UFC’s greatest competitor.

Although the general rules in these organizations are the same, some of the rules vary. Certain fans are asking for their unification, but some potential changes in the rules are causing quite a stir. That’s what we’ll talk about here; we’ll share some words on the rumored changes and why are they so controversial.

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Champ Champ Status

Mar 11, 2024
oleg

These days, it’s not enough to hold a title in a major MMA organization.  Why not two? Hell, Anatoly Malykhin is currently simultaneously holding the middleweight, light-heavyweight, and heavyweight titles at ONE Championship. And so every new major title holder seems to ignore the realities of defending their freshly won divisional title, preferring to immediately chase the ‘champ-champ’ status.

This craze began with Conor McGregor becoming the first UFC champion to hold title belts in two divisions at the same time.  There have been others before him, though none simultaneous. In this article, we will look back at every fighter who has held more than one divisional title (whether simultaneous or one at at time) in the UFC history, in chronological order. Interim titles count; tournament titles do not.

* indicates titles held simultaneously

 Randy Couture

Date Event Opponent Weight Class Defenses
December 21, 1997 UFC 15.5 – Ultimate Japan 1 Maurice Smith Heavyweight None (Vacated)
June 6, 2003 (Interim) UFC 43 – Meltdown Chuck Liddell Light-Heavyweight 1 (Unification)

Randy ‘The Natural’ Couture was a pioneer of MMA in many ways.  One of the first well-rounded fighters who sucessfully utilized more than one discipline, Couture was also the first fighter in the UFC to win multiple titles. The Natural made his UFC debut in 1997, winning the UFC 13 Heavyweight Tournament. He then defeated young ‘Phenom’ Vitor Belfort in a title eliminator, before capturing the UFC heavyweight title with a decision win over Maurice Smith. Couture never did defend that belt, vacating it amidst a contract dispute with UFC, which saw Randy going to fight over in Japan for a period of his career. Upon returning to UFC in 2000, Couture immediately won back the heavyweight title and defended it twice.

After dropping two fights at heavyweight, the aging Couture decided to try his luck at 205 lbs. Making his light-heavyweight debut at UFC 43, Couture stopped Chuck Liddell in the third round for the Interim title (the real title having been held by Tito Ortiz at the time), becoming the first man in UFC history to win title belts in two different divisions. Couture unified the belts in a routing of Ortiz, but then dropped it in a rematch with Vitor Belfort, due to a cut on the eyelid of Couture caused by the very first strike thrown by Belfort. After winning the title back from Belfort, Couture lost his next two battles to Chuck Liddell and retired from the sport.

Couture’s retirement didn’t last long: a year later, he returned to the heavyweight division, shocking the world with a dominant decision win over a much larger man in Tim Sylvia. Randy defended the heavyweight title once, before losing it to Brock Lesnar.  He didn’t fight for another title after.

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Legends of the Octagon: Khabib Nurmagomedov

Mar 8, 2024
Fairfax

Khabib Nurmagomedov was a well-rounded Mixed Martial Arts fighter who has made his name as the greatest lightweight in MMA  and one of the most dominant UFC champions of all time.  His background in the Russian martial art of sambo made him one hell of a grappler! Basically, once you are on the Octagon floor with Khabib, you are sure to lose. The highlight of Khabib’s career is capturing the UFC lightweight championship belt and defending it four times.  His most viewed UFC fight was against Conor McGregor. Actually, UFC 229 was the most viewed fight on Pay-Per-View in UFC history, as there were over 2,400,000 viewers. Likely Khabib’s most challenging opponent was Dustin Poirier. Nurmagomedov retired as the lightweight champion.  His overall MMA record is unblemished at 29-0, and he is the only UFC champion who retired undefeated.

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Introducing the WHR Underdog Parlay!

Mar 6, 2024
Jason

In terms of consistency, predictability, and sensitivity, the WHR rating system is probably the best foundation for a combat sports rating system.  We have WHR-based ratings available on our ranking pages, and you can read more about it here.

It has been a while since we posted an original gambling-related article, so I thought I’d use the WHR system to provide a parlay for this weekend’s UFC card, listing the fighters that are betting underdogs, that are favored by WHR.  However, there are several things to consider:

  • Only bouts with the following criteria are considered:
    • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
    • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
    • Both fighters must have at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  Unblemished records have no known “ceiling”.
  • Our odds are “composite” odds — an average of many major bookmakers.
  • There may be “better” bets available.  In other words, a slight betting favorite that is a HUGE WHR favorite.  Perhaps in future post(s), we rank the best bets regardless.. a WHR “Best Bets” parlay.
  • This is not “plain jane” WHR (although it is very advanced by default).  Read the FAQ for more info.
  • As WHR is an Elo-variant, I’m using the same win probability formula as is the standard in Elo.  If one of you math nerds has a better approach, please let me know.
  • “Odds Win %” does not factor in the juice.  To prevent confusion, I will not list fights in which the underdog has negative odds.  In this case, the fights are so close that the underdog & favorite usually vary between books anyway.
  • Don’t blame us if you lose money.  Gamble at your own risk.

 

UFC 299 WHR Underdog Parlay

UFC 299 WHR Parlay

So, what this tells us, is that based on WHR win probability, this parlay is about 7x more likely to hit than the most recent odds imply, with Burns being the most attractive single bet.

As far as the entire card goes, Jack Della Maddalena is pretty far ahead of the pack as the “worst bet”, with Gilbert Burns his opponent, obviously the “best bet”.

 

All-Time MMA Rankings: the Lightest Weights

Mar 6, 2024
oleg

Part 1 – Who’s the GOAT?

Part 2 – Heavy Hitters

Part 3 – Middle of the Pack

We’ve now gotten through the top two thirds of the men’s weight divisions, and established that the UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev stands the best chance of dethroning the all-time divisional #1, who just happens to be his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov.  Let us now take a look at the lightest men’s weight classes, and see if my assertion holds true.

Men’s Bantamweight

[#1]: Dominick Cruz (8198)

Next active fighter:  [#7] Henry Cejudo (3693)

Point differential: 2.21x

Other contenders: [#10] Petr Yan, [#11] Cody Garbrandt, [#12] Sean OMalley

Similar to men’s lightweight, there is not as much separation between #1 and the rest at bantamweight.  Dominic Cruz’s reign at the top was brief, and though he is not officially retired, these days he fights very infrequently and isn’t likely to rise any further. Fortunately for Cruz, there just currently isn’t a serious contender to knock him out of the top spot. Aljamain Sterling was oh-so-close but moved up in weight. [#4] Renan Barao, who once so long ago looked like an unstoppable champion, recently made his return to MMA action, to atrocious results and is presently on a six-fight skid. Former champion Henry Cejudo would have likely been ranked much higher on these lists, had he not taken a three year layoff in the prime of his career.  Now, he stands with back-to-back losses and not a very clear path forward.

Another former champion, Petr Yan, was once lauded as the future of the division, but faltered badly in his last few outings and is now fighting for his UFC career. Yet another brief title holder Cody Garbrandt is a glass cannon who is not likely to catch lightning in a bottle like he did on the night he took the belt from Cruz. Finally, amongst all these past champs, we have the current top dog Sean O’Malley. In a less competitive division we could imagine Sean with a long reign at the top; however he is already talking about moving up to featherweight for a chance at the ‘champ champ’ status. He also has contenders like Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov breathing down his neck.

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Popular Martial Arts for Betting

Mar 5, 2024
A. J. Riot

The excitement and unpredictability of martial arts have made it a popular choice for sports enthusiasts and bettors alike. With various disciplines showcased on global platforms, the allure of betting on these intense competitions has grown significantly. This article delves into the popular martial arts for betting, providing insights and tips for those looking to engage in this thrilling world.

The Dominance of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA)

Mixed Martial Arts, or MMA, is a giant in the world of combat sports betting. This discipline combines techniques from boxing, wrestling, Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and more, offering a dynamic and unpredictable spectacle. Events such as UFC matches have propelled MMA into the mainstream, attracting a wide audience worldwide.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 299: O’Malley vs. Vera 2 (03-09-2024)

Mar 4, 2024
Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#10P4P] Sean OMalley (17-1-0, -279) vs. [#5] Marlon Vera (24-8-1, +222)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #12 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Marlon Vera is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (23-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:51 of round 2
2022-10-22: W vs. [#8BW] Petr Yan (16-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-02: NC vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marlon Vera (2-1-0)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#12BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-03-25: L vs. [#4BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0) via SD (50-45, 49-46, 47-48)
2022-08-13: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (24-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:17 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -279 70.32%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 2123.84 +52.00 57.43%
Elo Modified Marlon Vera 2085.54 +28.81 54.14%
Glicko-1 Marlon Vera 2156.78 +23.83 53.42%
WHR Sean OMalley 1962.01 +2.97 50.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 203, Marlon Vera 203
Previous Match-up Record: Marlon Vera leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#4] Dustin Poirier (29-8-0, +175) vs. [#15] Benoit St. Denis (13-1-0, -215)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #30 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (1-2-0)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#3LW/#8P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2021-12-11: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#7P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Benoit St. Denis (3-0-0)
2023-11-11: W vs. [#38LW] Matt Frevola (11-4-1) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:31 of round 1
2023-09-02: W vs. [#51LW] Thiago Moises (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 2
2023-07-01: W vs. [#83LW] Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) via SUB in 4:48 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Benoit St. Denis -215 65.24%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2238.03 +263.03 81.97%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2188.08 +223.38 78.35%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2247.43 +171.99 72.91%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2004.99 +68.90 59.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 224, Benoit St. Denis 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#14] Kevin Holland (25-10-0, -132) vs. [#18] Michael Page (21-2-0, +110)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#12WW] Jack Della Maddalena (16-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#42WW] Michael Chiesa (16-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:39 of round 1
2023-04-08: W vs. [#32WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michael Page (2-1-0)
2023-03-10: W vs. [#56WW] Goiti Yamauchi (28-6-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 0:26 of round 1
2022-05-13: L vs. [#24WW] Logan Storley (15-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-10-01: W vs. [#23MW] Douglas Lima (33-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -132 54.43%
Elo K170 Michael Page 1997.58 +99.52 63.94%
Elo Modified Michael Page 1992.24 +51.37 57.34%
Glicko-1 Michael Page 2077.22 +52.73 57.53%
WHR Michael Page 1936.14 +89.44 62.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 175, Michael Page 365
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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