UFC Fight Night 134: Shogun vs. Smith (07-22-2018)

20 Jul , 2018,
jcs
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[*] Mauricio Rua (25-10-0, +183) vs. [#11] Anthony Smith (29-13-0, -230)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #8 ranked Light Heavyweight and #34 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (3-0-0)
2017-03-11: W vs. [#26LHW] Gian Villante (16-10-0) via TKO in 0:59 of round 3
2016-05-14: W vs. [#15LHW] Corey Anderson (10-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-08-01: W vs. [*] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (2-1-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [*] Rashad Evans (21-8-1) via KO (Knee) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-02-03: L vs. [#19MW] Thiago Santos (17-6-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:03 of round 2
2017-09-16: W vs. [#47MW] Hector Lombard (34-9-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 498, Anthony Smith 43
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#4] Glover Teixeira (27-6-0, -163) vs. [#15] Corey Anderson (10-4-0, +136)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (2-1-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#23LHW] Misha Cirkunov (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 1
2017-05-28: L vs. [#3LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 5
2017-02-11: W vs. [#64LHW] Jared Cannonier (10-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Corey Anderson (1-2-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#24LHW] Patrick Cummins (10-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2017-11-04: L vs. [#10LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-11-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:25 of round 3
2017-03-18: L vs. [#12LHW] Jimi Manuwa (17-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:05 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Glover Teixeira 218, Corey Anderson 92
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Glover Teixeira leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#104] Vitor Miranda (12-6-0, +164) vs. [*] Abu Azaitar (13-2-1, -199)

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Miranda (1-2-0)
2017-06-25: L vs. [#60MW] Marvin Vettori (12-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-05-29: L vs. [#55MW] Chris Camozzi (24-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-03-05: W vs. [*] Marcelo Guimaraes (9-2-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Abu Azaitar (3-0-0)
2016-10-07: W vs. [*] Michael Arrant (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-04-02: W vs. [#269WW] Danny Davis Jr. (13-12-1) via UD ()
2015-12-20: W vs. [#591WW] Ibragim Tibilov (11-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Miranda 392, Abu Azaitar 653
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Sunday, July 29th 2018: RIZIN 11
 [#3 W105] Kanna Asakura [#9 W105] Rena Kubota
Last Fight Date: 5/06/2018 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [NR] Melissa Karagianis
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 7/06/2018 [Shoot Boxing]
Last Opponent: [NR] Elaine Leal
Last 5: W W W L W
Saturday, July 21st 2018: Invicta FC 30: Yu Frey vs. Grusander
 [#6 W105] Jinh Yu Frey [#8 W105] Minna Grusander
Last Fight Date: 12/23/2017 [Road Fighting Championship]
Last Opponent: [#1 W105] Seo Hee Ham
Last 5: W W L W L
Last Fight Date: 3/24/2018 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [NR] Fernanda Priscila Barros Pinheiro
Last 5: L W W W W
Friday, October 12th 2018: Bellator MMA - Mitrione vs. Bader
 [#6 HW] Ryan Bader [#12 HW] Matt Mitrione
Last Fight Date: 5/12/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#16 HW] Muhammed Lawal
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 2/16/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#21 HW] Roy Nelson
Last 5: L W W W W

ELO Sneak Peeks….

15 Jul , 2018,
jcs
10 comments

Currently, I am working on two flavors for the divisional ranking pages:

Standard Elo

  • Starter rating is 1000.
  • K-Factor is 170.
  • Uses the standard “algorithm of 400” Elo equation.
  • Draws have a match impact of 0.5 for each fighter.  Wins have a match impact of 1.0 for the winner, 0.0 for the loser.

The standard Elo will remain as is — unless I find a better Starter Rating / K-Factor combination for the sport as a whole or need to fix a bug.

Modified Elo

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Coming Soon… Elo Ratings (and eventually, others)

10 Jul , 2018,
jcs
5 comments

As you may know, the Elo system is a popular rating instrument used in the world of chess.  In the combat sports world, it has inspired the widely known boxing ratings over at BoxRec and to a lesser degree, the standard system used here.  From a broader standpoint, as far as I know, it is considered the grandfather of mathematical-based rating systems.

Now, it does have its flaws and those flaws were on display for many years over at site called MMA Elo, but those issues were compounded by the lackluster data efforts by that site’s creator — a problem you won’t see here.

At its core, Elo is simple math.  That’s what makes it so interesting.  It is very simple, but does offer a few variables that can be optimized for the specific task at hand, most notably, the K-factor.  Simply put, the K-factor affects the amount of change that a single contest can have — the lower the K-factor, the smaller the potential change and vice-versa.

In chess, a sport that often has a frequent, consistent and logical schedule, the K-factor is quite low, commonly between 16 and 32.  It turns out, a K-factor somewhere between 150 and 200 yields the most accurate prediction rates in MMA.

So, to start, the Elo system will be implemented with a starter rating of 1000 and a K-factor in the neighborhood of 170.  There will be no provisional system and no K-factor tiers (yet), but the plan is to offer a few flavors and perhaps incorporate some other common systems as well.  These flavors will be entirely driven by prediction rates in some shape or form and there will be no emphasis on subjectivity, so things could get a little wacky.

The “standard” system you’ve seen for over a decade will still be the default, but we’ll be giving you the option to filter the divisional pages by system.  The one thing to keep in mind, is that the Top X fighters displayed will (at least for now) be driven by the standard system only — which means that the #251 Heavyweight by our standard measure, may be the #249 Heavyweight by Elo, but since he didn’t make the standard cut, he won’t be in the lists.  This may or may not change in the future.

Any and all comments are welcome.

FightMatrix Program – UFC Fight Night 133: dos Santos vs. Ivanov (07-13-2018)

Jul , 2018,
jcs
No Comments

Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Junior dos Santos (18-5-0, -175) vs. [#21] Blagoy Ivanov (16-1-0, +146)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #6 ranked Heavyweight and #29 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (1-2-0)
2017-05-13: L vs. [#2HW+/#10DD/#8P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 1
2016-04-10: W vs. [*] Ben Rothwell (36-10-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2015-12-19: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Blagoy Ivanov (3-0-0)
2017-11-02: W vs. [#58HW+] Caio Alencar (11-3-0) via UD ()
2017-03-18: W vs. [*] Shawn Jordan (19-8-0) via TKO in 1:43 of round 1
2016-06-17: W vs. [#74HW+] Josh Copeland (16-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 427, Blagoy Ivanov 254
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#27] Dennis Bermudez (16-8-0, -268) vs. [#48] Rick Glenn (20-5-1, +202)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Bermudez (0-3-0)
2018-01-27: L vs. [#24FW] Andre Fili (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-07-22: L vs. [#6FW] Darren Elkins (24-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-02-04: L vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (14-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rick Glenn (2-1-0)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#13FW] Myles Jury (17-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#149FW] Gavin Tucker (10-1-0) via UD (30-24, 29-27, 30-25)
2017-02-11: W vs. [*] Phillipe Nover (10-8-1) via SD (29-28, 27-30, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dennis Bermudez 168, Rick Glenn 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dennis Bermudez leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#96] Zak Ottow (16-5-0, +115) vs. [#268] Sage Northcutt (10-2-0, -140)

Last 3 Fights: Zak Ottow (2-1-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#213WW] Mike Pyle (27-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1
2017-11-25: L vs. [#84WW] Jingliang Li (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
2017-06-10: W vs. [#131WW] Kiichi Kunimoto (19-7-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sage Northcutt (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#151LW] Thibault Gouti (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-11: W vs. [#314LW] Michel Quinones (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-12-17: L vs. [#333WW] Mickey Gall (4-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zak Ottow 133, Sage Northcutt 146
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (07-08-2018)

8 Jul , 2018,
jcs
No Comments

Notable Info

  • Due to a data issue, some men slipped into the women (current) rankings last week.  This should now be resolved.

FightMatrix Program – UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier (07-07-2018)

4 Jul , 2018,
jcs
one comments

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#4DD/#3P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-2-0, -249) vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#4P4P] Daniel Cormier (20-1-0, +200)
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #29 ranked Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (3-0-0)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#2HW+] Francis Ngannou (11-2-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#8HW+] Junior dos Santos (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:22 of round 1
2016-09-10: W vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via TKO in 4:27 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#6LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2
2017-07-29: NC vs. [#2LHW/#5P4P] Jon Jones (22-1-0)
2017-04-08: W vs. [*] Anthony Johnson (22-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stipe Miocic 168, Daniel Cormier 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD/#2P4P] Max Holloway (19-3-0, -149) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Brian Ortega (14-0-0, +124)
Max Holloway is the All-Time #3 ranked Featherweight and #35 ranked Absolute fighter.
Brian Ortega is the All-Time #20 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2017-06-03: W vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (26-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2016-12-10: W vs. [#8LW] Anthony Pettis (20-7-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 4:50 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Brian Ortega (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#4FW] Frankie Edgar (23-6-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1
2017-12-09: W vs. [#14FW] Cub Swanson (25-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2017-07-29: W vs. [#15FW] Renato Carneiro (12-1-1) via SUB in 2:59 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Max Holloway 217, Brian Ortega 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#2] Francis Ngannou (11-2-0, -372) vs. [#10] Derrick Lewis (19-5-0, +290)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #36 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (2-1-0)
2018-01-20: L vs. [#1HW+/#4DD/#3P4P] Stipe Miocic (18-2-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#7HW+] Alistair Overeem (43-17-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:42 of round 1
2017-01-28: W vs. [#19HW+] Andrei Arlovski (27-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#22HW+] Marcin Tybura (16-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2017-06-10: L vs. [#9HW+] Mark Hunt (13-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:51 of round 4
2017-02-19: W vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (18-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:12 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 168, Derrick Lewis 139
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Read More…

FightMatrix Program – UFC TUF 27 Finale: Tavares vs. Adesanya (07-06-2018)

3 Jul , 2018,
jcs
one comments

Middleweight (185)
[#12] Brad Tavares (17-4-0, +119) vs. [#46] Israel Adesanya (13-0-0, -143)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (3-0-0)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#22MW] Krzysztof Jotko (19-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:16 of round 3
2017-10-07: W vs. [#33MW] Thales Leites (27-9-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-07-07: W vs. [#15MW] Elias Theodorou (15-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (3-0-0)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#63MW] Marvin Vettori (12-4-1) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#190MW] Rob Wilkinson (11-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:37 of round 2
2017-11-24: W vs. [#387MW] Stuart Dare (8-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:53 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brad Tavares 83, Israel Adesanya 83
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#19] Roxanne Modafferi (21-14-0, +145) vs. [#30] Barb Honchak (10-3-0, -172)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.
Barb Honchak is the All-Time #13 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (2-1-0)
2017-12-01: L vs. [#5FLY] Nicco Montano (4-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
2017-05-20: W vs. [#38FLY] Sarah DAlelio (11-7-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:37 of round 3
2017-04-01: W vs. [#88FLY] Priscila de Souza (12-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:53 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (2-1-0)
2017-12-01: L vs. [#29FLY] Lauren Murphy (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-11-01: W vs. [#40FLY] Takayo Hashi (16-6-1) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2013-12-07: W vs. [#7BW] Leslie Smith (10-7-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roxanne Modafferi 217, Barb Honchak 217
Previous Match-up Record: Barb Honchak leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#62] Julian Marquez (7-1-0, -165) vs. [#117] Alessio Di Chirico (11-2-0, +139)

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (3-0-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#50MW] Darren Stewart (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-08-01: W vs. [#450MW] Phil Hawes (4-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:20 of round 2
2017-05-19: W vs. [#163LHW] Cameron Olson (9-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alessio Di Chirico (2-1-0)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#229MW] Oluwale Bamgbose (6-4-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:14 of round 2
2017-01-28: L vs. [#64MW] Eric Spicely (10-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2016-08-27: W vs. [*] Garreth McLellan (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Julian Marquez 202, Alessio Di Chirico 202
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-01-2018)

1 Jul , 2018,
jcs
No Comments

UPDATE – Re-posting at 6pm Eastern – Forgot the semi-annual nationality adjustment (ultimately one was not warranted for 1st half of 2018) and resolving a few data issues.

FightMatrix Program – Bellator 201: Macfarlane vs. Lara (06-29-2018)

28 Jun , 2018,
jcs
No Comments

Women Flyweight (125)
[#14] Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (7-0-0) vs. [#41] Alejandra Lara (7-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (3-0-0)
2017-11-03: W vs. [#67FLY] Emily Ducote (6-4-0) via Verbal Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 3:42 of round 5
2017-04-21: W vs. [NA] Jessica Middleton (3-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:15 of round 1
2016-12-03: W vs. [#67FLY] Emily Ducote (6-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alejandra Lara (3-0-0)
2017-12-09: W vs. [#82FLY] Lena Ovchynnikova (12-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 3
2016-02-13: W vs. [#115SW] Lina Franco Rodriguez (3-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:32 of round 2
2015-09-05: W vs. [NA] Janeth Alvarado (0-1-1) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilima-Lei Macfarlane 238, Alejandra Lara 202
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (160)
[#46] Saad Awad (22-9-0) vs. [#401] Ryan Couture (11-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Saad Awad (3-0-0)
2018-01-26: W vs. [#136LW] J.J. Ambrose (28-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-11-03: W vs. [#442LW] Zach Freeman (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-04-21: W vs. [#116LW] Ryan Quinn (14-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Couture (1-2-0)
2017-06-24: W vs. [#1052WW] Haim Gozali (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2016-10-21: L vs. [#54LW] Goiti Yamauchi (22-4-0) via SUB in of round 1
2016-01-29: L vs. [#6LW] Patricky Freire (19-8-0) via TKO in of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Saad Awad 154, Ryan Couture 370
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#78] Juan Archuleta (19-1-0) vs. [#309] Robbie Peralta (19-8-0)

Last 3 Fights: Juan Archuleta (3-0-0)
2018-03-02: W vs. [#553FW] William Joplin (16-15-0) via UD (30-24, 30-23, 30-26)
2017-12-03: W vs. [#262FW] Mark Dickman (11-4-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 4
2017-09-02: W vs. [#1097LW] Adel Altamimi (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Peralta (1-2-0)
2017-09-03: W vs. [NA] Shad Smith (13-23-2) via UD ()
2017-03-31: L vs. [#112LW] Alan Omer (21-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:44 of round 3
2015-12-18: L vs. [#98FW] Sheymon Moraes (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:21 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Juan Archuleta 119, Robbie Peralta 299
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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