MMA Rankings, Records, Statistics

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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  In addition to those, there should also be considerations to stylistic differences and the possibility of bad scoring — both of which, will not be considered here.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

 

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Beal vs. Seery Beal (-207 / Moderate) Beal (1.41x / Small) PASS #1
Bektic vs. Redmond Bektic (-707 / Very Large) Bektic (1.38x / Small) Redmond #1, #3
Erokhin vs. Pesta Erokhin (-372 / Large) Erokhin (4.18x / Massive) Erokhin
Christodoulou vs. Taisumov Taisumov (-865 / Very Large) Taisumov (2.40x / Large) PASS
Krylov vs. Nedkov Krylov (-126 / Very Small) Krylov (1.75x / Moderate) PASS #1, #2
Amirkhani vs. Ogle Ogle (-152 / Small) Ogle (1.00x / EVEN) Amirkhani
Robertson vs. Aliev Aliev (-156 / Small) Robertson (1.11x / Very Small) PASS #1
Musoke vs. Tumenov Tumenov (-134 / Very Small) Musoke (1.27x / Small) Musoke #4
Corassani vs. Sicilia Corassani (-128 / Very Small) Corassani (1.85x / Moderate) Corassani
Davis vs. Bader Davis (-253 / Moderate) Davis (1.77x / Moderate) PASS
Mousasi vs. Henderson Mousasi (-504 / Very Large) Henderson (1.80x / Moderate) Henderson #1
Gustafsson vs. Johnson Gustafsson (-284 / Moderate) Johnson (1.16x / Very Small) PASS #4

Now, to the results – given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many relevant gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

 

Favorites to consider: Corassani and Erokhin are the two favorites I’d consider backing here.  Erokhin, due to the substantial rating advantage and Corassani mainly due to the hometown advantage.

 

Underdogs to consider:

  • Redmond over Bektic – Bektic is a huge odds favorite and while Redmond is dropping a division, this seems like a reasonable chance to take.
  • Amirkhani over Ogle - The ratings are basically even and with Ogle having such a poor stretch, I’d side with the newcomer in this one who is also close to home.
  • Musoke over Tumenov – Styles aside, I see no reason to go against Musoke.  Rating advantage + Hometown advantage typically equals favorite.
  • Henderson over Mousasi – I’ve been known to side with the aging legend when I shouldn’t.  In this case, Mousasi to me, is not a -500 favorite.  He feels more like a -250 favorite to me, at best.  It’s almost as if people are getting Mousasi mixed up with Machida.

 

Johnson is a really tempting pick.  If this event were anywhere else, I would’ve picked him in a second.

Posted on January 23, 2015 by jcs

MMA Statistics, Upcoming Events | Comments (3)


Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)





Good news, fight fans!  This weekend’s UFC on FOX 14, live from Stockholm Sweden, will be broadcast on the Fox network (as if that wasn’t clear from the title…).  That means this event is free – free as in free beer, no PPV cost, no need to estimate the cable prices or Fight Pass subscription rates.  Any US fan with a TV can watch the main card for absolutely no charge.  What’s even better is that UFC tends to stack the Fox cards, so that they are on par with most numbered PPV events (and better than some).   There are even a couple of interesting fights on the prelims, but more on that later.  For now, lets dive right in and try to figure out how much this card would be worth if it were on PPV instead of Fox.

 

Main Event:  [#3 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs  [#6 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson 

Worth: $20

Why: Who would have ever thought that in 2015,  Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson – the guy who lost to Rich Clementi and Josh Koscheck as a welterweight, and consistently struggled to make weight at 170 and 185 lbs alike – would be fighting in a top contender bout for a crack at Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title?  Of course he would have to get past Alexander Gustafsson first – a tall task against Jones’ toughest opponent to date.  This is an awesome fight, the only thing it’s missing is a title on the line, and that will be up next for the winner.

Continue reading 'Bang for Your Buck: UFC on FOX 14'

Posted on January 22, 2015 by oleg

Event Previews | Comments (0)


Notable Info

  • Bad result from last UFC event fixed (Case/Perez).
  • Obscure bug fixed that improperly altered rating points of fighters involved in very specific scenarios (less than 0.1% of fighters).

Posted on January 22, 2015 by jcs

MMA Ranks | Comments (0)


Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Anthony Johnson (18-4-0, +185) vs. [#6] Alexander Gustafsson (16-2-0, -232)
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Johnson (3-0-0)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#12LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1
2014-04-26: W vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-18: W vs. [#43HW+] Mike Kyle (20-12-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (2-1-0)
2014-03-08: W vs. [#18LHW] Jimi Manuwa (14-1-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-09-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#14LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Johnson 182, Alexander Gustafsson 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Johnson leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#7LHW] Dan Henderson (30-12-0, +250) vs. [#8] Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2, -322)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #17 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (1-2-0)
2014-05-24: L vs. [#2LHW] Daniel Cormier (15-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3
2014-03-23: W vs. [#14LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 3
2013-11-09: L vs. [#3MW] Vitor Belfort (24-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (1-2-0)
2014-09-05: L vs. [#4MW] Ronaldo Souza (21-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3
2014-05-31: W vs. [#17MW] Mark Munoz (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2014-02-15: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD/#10P4P] Lyoto Machida (22-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 245, Gegard Mousasi 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dan Henderson leads 3-1
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Phil Davis (13-2-0, -246) vs. [#9] Ryan Bader (18-4-0, +191)
Phil Davis is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-1-0)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#8LHW] Glover Teixeira (22-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-03: W vs. [#2MW/#8DD/#10P4P] Lyoto Machida (22-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (3-0-0)
2014-08-16: W vs. [#11LHW] Ovince St. Preux (17-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#24LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-07: W vs. [#28LHW] Anthony Perosh (15-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Davis 91, Ryan Bader 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Phil Davis leads 5-3
.
Continue reading 'Fight Matrix Program: UFC on Fox 14 (01-24-2015)'

Posted on January 22, 2015 by jcs

Event Previews, Upcoming Events | Comments (0)


My original intent for the ‘Bang for Your Buck’ series was to analyze upcoming UFC PPV events to determine whether the fight card is worth the asking price.  However, even before I was done writing the first installment in this series (UFC 182), it became readily apparent that most events will not meet this threshold.  A part of the reason for this is the ever-increasing PPV prices.   The other part is the also ever-increasing number of UFC events: in addition to the numbered PPV events, UFC holds a plethora of fight cards broadcast on Fox, Fox Sports 1, and Fight Pass network.  Inevitably this leaves some of the cards stretched very thin, especially after the “injury bug” gets through with them.

So is the UFC making it up to the fans for buying the frankly overpriced PPVs by broadcasting free cards on other networks?  Of course, anything that isn’t aired on Fox is not completely free: cards such as the upcoming Fight Night 59 on Fox Sports 1 – a cable network that may require a premium package, depending on your cable/satellite provider.  On the other hand, it’s highly unlikely that you are paying your cable bill exclusively to watch UFC on FS1.  This makes the price point of an event rather difficult to estimate, but I’ll give it a shot anyway:

Dish Network charges me $69.99 per month for a package which includes Fox Sports 1.  After the various fees, taxes, etc., my monthly bill comes out to be near $100.  (My actual bill is quite a bit higher than that but the number of TVs with extra HD receivers, or other premium packages I subscribe to, are really not relevant to this discussion).  So let’s say $100 it is, which averages out to $3.29 per day.  Researchers claim that the average American watches around 5 hours of television a day.  This number seems a bit high to me, and for the sake of making the math easier, let’s say that I spend exactly 3.29 hours per day staring at the TV screen.  This gives us the price point of $1 per hour, or $5 for a 5-hour UFC event on Fox Sports 1.  If you don’t agree with this valuation, feel free to provide a better one in the comments section!  Otherwise, keep reading to find out how FN 59 stacks up compared to this generous (imaginary) price point of $5.

Continue reading 'Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 59'

Posted on January 15, 2015 by oleg

Event Previews | Comments (2)


Featherweight (145)
[#7] Conor McGregor (16-2-0) vs. [#19] Dennis Siver (22-9-0)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#18FW] Dustin Poirier (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2014-07-19: W vs. [#52FW] Diego Brandao (18-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2013-08-17: W vs. [#15FW] Max Holloway (11-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Siver (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2014-10-04: W vs. [#131FW] Charles Rosa (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-28: NC vs. [#10BW] Manny Gamburyan (14-8-0)
2013-07-06: L vs. [#6FW] Cub Swanson (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Conor McGregor 113, Dennis Siver 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#3] Donald Cerrone (26-6-0) vs. [#4] Ben Henderson (21-4-0)
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #21 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #23 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (3-0-0)
2015-01-03: W vs. [#12LW] Myles Jury (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#8LW] Eddie Alvarez (25-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-07-16: W vs. [#29LW] Jim Miller (24-5-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:31 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (2-1-0)
2014-08-23: L vs. [#2LW] Rafael dos Anjos (23-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:31 of round 1
2014-06-07: W vs. [#26LW] Rustam Khabilov (17-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:16 of round 4
2014-01-25: W vs. [#10LW] Josh Thomson (20-7-0) via SD (49-46, 47-48, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 15, Ben Henderson 148
Previous Match-up Record: Ben Henderson leads 2-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Henderson leads 4-3
.

Middleweight (185)
[#26] Uriah Hall (9-4-0) vs. [#165] Ronald Stallings (12-5-0)

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2014-07-05: W vs. [#64MW] Thiago Santos (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2013-12-28: W vs. [*] Chris Leben (22-11-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1
2013-08-17: L vs. [#50WW] John Howard (22-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ronald Stallings (2-1-0)
2014-11-01: L vs. [#76MW] Tim Williams (10-1-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
2014-06-20: W vs. [#761WW] Joshua Williams (2-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 3
2012-09-14: W vs. [*] Mike Massenzio (13-9-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:03 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 197, Ronald Stallings 78
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Continue reading 'Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night (01-18-2015)'

Posted on January 14, 2015 by jcs

Event Previews, Upcoming Events | Comments (0)


In response to this article posted at Sherdog today, I thought I’d show All-Time MMA Rankings for the Lightweight division in detail and how it has trended in the past 3 years (using current version):

3 Years Ago Today Diff
BJ Penn 2790 2944 5.5%
Frankie Edgar 2300 2845 23.7%
Takanori Gomi 3249 2714 -16.5%
Ben Henderson 263 2709 930.0%
Gilbert Melendez 1470 2141 45.6%
Shinya Aoki 2061 2136 3.6%
Anthony Pettis 48 1795 3639.6%
Joachim Hansen 1509 1521 0.8%
Vitor Ribeiro 1463 1460 -0.2%
Eddie Alvarez 860 1340 55.8%

Everyone that stayed steady or increased slightly only saw fluctuations based on changes in ratings of key opposition or additional points earned between then and the end of their Lightweight runs.

Gomi got hit hard, because the system thought he was basically done three years ago.  On today’s run, it re-considered and suggested he was still at or near his prime when it saw him under-perform once hitting the UFC; essentially proving that he wasn’t all he was cracked up to be at one time.  Note: I try to disqualify post-prime failures, but it is not completely preventable.

In the past month, we’ve worked on some tweaks for the All-Time Rankings.  As fighter careers last longer (time-wise) we’ve seen the need to put more weight on quality and less weight on quantity.  Honestly, this is pretty subjective, but there’s no great way to do All-Time Rankings unless you look at sums or peaks and neither works great on its own.  Nevertheless, the same version was used in both sets provided above.

EDIT: Re-posted and re-explained.  Today values were incorrect.

Posted on January 12, 2015 by jcs

Historical Ranks, MMA Ranks | Comments (0)


Notable Info

  • This will be the last set of current rankings featuring Cain Velasquez until he fights again.  He will surpass the 450 day inactivity threshold this week.

Posted on January 11, 2015 by jcs

MMA Ranks | Comments (0)


In case you didn’t know, Donald Cerrone is now scheduled to fight again on UFC Fight Night (1/18) after fighting on UFC 182 (1/3).

This will only be the 4th occurrence of this happening:

 

Mike Thomas Brown | January 2011

(LOSS) – Diego Nunes – UFC 125 [2011-01-01]
(LOSS) – Rani Yahya – UFC – Fight for the Troops 2 [2011-01-22]

 

Lavar Johnson | May 2012

(WIN) – Pat Barry – UFC on Fox 3 [2012-05-05]
(LOSS) – Stefan Struve – UFC 146 [2012-05-26]

 

Dustin Pague | June 2012

(WIN) – Jared Papazian – UFC on FX 3 [2012-06-08]
(LOSS) – Ken Stone – UFC on FX 4 [2012-06-22]

Posted on January 8, 2015 by jcs

MMA Statistics | Comments (7)


Casinos in Germany


 


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