Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 214: Bader vs. Fedor (01-26-2019)

21 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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Heavyweight (265)
[#5] Ryan Bader (26-5-0, -366) vs. [#19] Fedor Emelianenko (38-5-0, +280)
Fedor Emelianenko is the All-Time #1 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (3-0-0)
2018-10-12: W vs. [#13HW+] Matt Mitrione (13-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-24, 30-25)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#28LHW] Muhammed Lawal (21-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:15 of round 1
2017-11-03: W vs. [#13LHW] Linton Vassell (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Fedor Emelianenko (2-1-0)
2018-10-13: W vs. [#29HW+] Chael Sonnen (30-16-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2018-04-28: W vs. [#62HW+] Frank Mir (18-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1
2017-06-24: L vs. [#13HW+] Matt Mitrione (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ryan Bader – Win%: 74.89
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ryan Bader (2260.70) [+295.31] – Win%: 79.40
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ryan Bader (2214.39) [+241.57] – Win%: 74.22
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Bader 106, Fedor Emelianenko 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ryan Bader leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#31] Henry Corrales (16-3-0) vs. [#42] Aaron Pico (4-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Henry Corrales (3-0-0)
2018-10-13: W vs. [#147FW] Andy Main (12-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:08 of round 3
2018-01-20: W vs. [#32FW] Georgi Karakhanyan (29-8-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-08-25: W vs. [#81FW] Noad Lahat (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Aaron Pico (3-0-0)
2018-09-29: W vs. [#91FW] Leandro Higo (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2018-05-12: W vs. [#446FW] Lee Morrison (19-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2018-01-20: W vs. [#986FW] Shane Kruchten (12-4-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 0:37 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Henry Corrales (1758.86) [+249.24] – Win%: 75.75
Elo Favorite (Modified): Henry Corrales (1774.59) [+186.38] – Win%: 69.34
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Henry Corrales 105, Aaron Pico 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[NA] J.W. Kiser (1-1-0) vs. [NA] Jake Hager (DEBUT)

Last 3 Fights: J.W. Kiser (1-1-0)
2018-12-01: W vs. [] TBA/Unknown () via TKO in 3:43 of round 1
2018-05-05: L vs. [#449HW+] Antonio Martinez (2-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:24 of round 1

Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Saturday, January 26th 2019: Bellator 214: Fedor vs. Bader
 [#5 HW] Ryan Bader [#19 HW] Fedor Emelianenko
Last Fight Date: 10/12/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Matt Mitrione
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 10/13/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#29 HW] Chael Sonnen
Last 5: W W L W W
Friday, February 15th 2019: Bellator 215 - Mitrione vs. Kharitonov
 [#13 HW] Matt Mitrione [#17 HW] Sergei Kharitonov
Last Fight Date: 10/12/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#5 HW] Ryan Bader
Last 5: W W W W L
Last Fight Date: 10/12/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#24 HW] Roy Nelson
Last 5: W W W NC W
Saturday, February 16th 2019: Bellator 216 - MVP vs. Daley
 [#14 HW] Cheick Kongo [#16 HW] Vitaly Minakov
Last Fight Date: 10/13/2018 [BellatorFC]
Last Opponent: [#47 HW] Timothy Johnson
Last 5: W W W W W
Last Fight Date: 12/16/2017 [Fight Nights Global]
Last Opponent: [#36 HW] Tony Johnson
Last 5: W W W W W

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 1: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw (01-13-2019)

18 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1BW/#3DD/#5P4P] T.J. Dillashaw (16-3-0, 124.6lb, -219) vs. [#1/#5DD/#6P4P] Henry Cejudo (13-2-0, 124.4lb, +177)
T.J. Dillashaw is the All-Time #35 ranked Absolute fighter.
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: T.J. Dillashaw (3-0-0)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#3BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-2-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2017-11-04: W vs. [#3BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 2
2016-12-30: W vs. [#5BW] John Lineker (31-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#7P4P] Demetrious Johnson (27-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#55BW] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#10FLY] Wilson Reis (23-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): T.J. Dillashaw – Win%: 65.53
Elo Favorite (Standard): T.J. Dillashaw (2184.33) [+139.97] – Win%: 65.46
Elo Favorite (Modified): T.J. Dillashaw (2170.38) [+210.59] – Win%: 71.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: T.J. Dillashaw 168, Henry Cejudo 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (264)
[#162] Greg Hardy (3-0-0, 264.0lb, -535) vs. [#169] Allen Crowder (9-3-0, 252.6lb, +386)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (3-0-0)
2018-09-29: W vs. [NA] Ray Jones (0-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2018-08-07: W vs. [#375HW+] Tebaris Gordon (3-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 1
2018-06-12: W vs. [#367HW+] Austen Lane (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Allen Crowder (2-1-0)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#11HW+] Justin Willis (8-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:33 of round 1
2017-08-29: W vs. [#133HW+] Dontale Mayes (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:12 of round 3
2017-05-20: W vs. [*] Robert Neal (4-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 80.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Allen Crowder (1295.04) [+10.69] – Win%: 51.22
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1455.17) [+108.54] – Win%: 61.66
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 112, Allen Crowder 413
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#19] Yancy Medeiros (15-5-0, 155.4lb, +384) vs. [#43] Gregor Gillespie (12-0-0, 155.2lb, -531)

Last 3 Fights: Yancy Medeiros (2-1-0)
2018-02-18: L vs. [#14WW] Donald Cerrone (34-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 1
2017-12-02: W vs. [#20WW] Alex Oliveira (20-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 3
2017-06-03: W vs. [#91WW] Erick Silva (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Gregor Gillespie (3-0-0)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#100LW] Vinc Pichel (11-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:06 of round 2
2018-01-27: W vs. [#42FW] Jordan Rinaldi (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2017-09-16: W vs. [*] Jason Gonzalez (11-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gregor Gillespie – Win%: 80.28
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gregor Gillespie (1837.96) [+7.26] – Win%: 50.83
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gregor Gillespie (1830.40) [+16.73] – Win%: 51.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yancy Medeiros 335, Gregor Gillespie 232
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

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UFC in 2019: A Brief Preview

14 Jan , 2019,
oleg
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Two years have passed since Zuffa – the former owners of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, who were instrumental in bringing UFC and the sport of MMA as a whole to it’s current state – have sold the company and turned the reigns over to the new owners, WME-IMG. While the new ownership kept the long time President Dana White at the helm, many things have changed under the WME banner: the match makers and overall approach to match-making, the broadcast team, expansion of women’s weight classes, and of course the ever-changing stream of champions – regular, interim, multiple-weight-division, disputed and undisputed. The highlights of 2018 included Khabib Nurmagomedov defeating Conor McGregor in the highest-selling Pay-Per-View (PPV) event in UFC history, Daniel Cormier winning and defending the heavyweight title while simultaneously holding the light-heavyweight belt, and Amanda Nunes ending Cris Cyborg’s 13-year undefeated streak  and becoming the first woman to earn the “champ-champ” accolade. But there is a flip side to every coin: Khabib’s win was followed by a near-brawl between the fighters’ corners, resulting in a yet-to-be determined punishment for the lightweight champ, which does not help clean up the already confusing title picture at 155 lbs. Cormier was forced to give up his light-heavyweight title to pave way for the return of his nemesis Jon ‘Bones’ Jones – which turned into a huge fiasco due to Jon’s continued inability to pass a PED test, and the UFC’s willingness to sweep it all under the rug. Nunes’ win (or more precisely, Cyborg’s loss) raised serious questions about the viability of women’s featherweight division. And I haven’t even mentioned the first ever fighter trade between major MMA organizations, as UFC released Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson to fight for Singapore-based ONE Championship promotion, in return for acquiring the services of welterweight wrestling prodigy Ben Askren.

The only thing that remains constant in the world of MMA is the inevitability of change. This may be mostly due to it still being a relatively new sport which is trying to establish it’s long-term identity. The behind-the-scenes turmoil only adds to unpredictability of what is already an inherently unpredictable sport in terms of fight outcomes: the fact that there are so many ways to win a mixed martial arts bout makes it significantly more likely to see unexpected outcomes in MMA than boxing, or any other combat sport with a more restrictive rule set. And don’t even get me started on MMA judging: if a relatively close bout goes the distance, you might as well flip a coin to predict the judges’ decision. This makes MMA a tricky sport to bet on; however it also makes the reward sweeter when you do get it right. It also makes watching the fights that much more exciting when you have something riding on the outcome. So if you think that you can predict the winner of the next big fight and are willing to put your money where your mouth is, there are many resources available to place a bet online. With all that in mind, here are some of my thoughts on what 2019 will hold for the UFC.

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Will OneFC Become the “One” Where Careers and Legacies Die?

9 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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With the recent acquisitions of Eddie Alvarez and Demetrious Johnson, One Championship signed two proven legends still in their prime, or at worst, not far removed from it.

That’s the good part.  The bad part is that this may be the start of a trend — one that sees mid to mid-late career high profile fighters leave the UFC for a smooth descent to their careers.

Many will likely see this as a positive, mostly because UFC is a bit of a monopoly as it pertains to the upper echelon of the sport.  However, monopolies can be good in a sport where matchmaking on the lesser levels of the sport is mediocre at best.

This type of lackluster matchmaking is truly on display in Alvarez’s and Johnson’s next fights, neither of which are coming back from major injury or inactivity.

Last 4 Opponents + OneFC Scheduled Bouts

Eddie Alvarez (#4 LW) Demetrious Johnson (#2 FLY)
McGregor (#6 WW) Elliott (#9 FLY)
Poirier (#16 LW) Reis (#7 FLY)
Gaethje (#9 LW) Borg (#4 FLY)
Poirier (#5 LW) Cejudo (#2 FLY)
Nastyukhin (#196 WW) Wakamatsu (#354 BW)

Historical ranks used are from the Generated Historical Rankings set previous to the bout.

Now, I don’t know about you… but it feels like something is wrong with this picture.

Not only is OneFC headquartered on the opposite side of the globe and not only are they responsible for their wonky divisional structure that nobody really 100% understands (at least not the last time I looked) but the opposition quality that Alvarez & Johnson are facing is extremely lacking.  This isn’t the type of crappy matchmaking that plagues the lower levels of MMA — it is far worse.  I seriously doubt that a commission would sanction this match anywhere in the US, outside of say.. one located on a Native American reservation in Montana.

Boxing catches grief, because giant favorites are a common theme, especially on undercards.  MMA is not boxing and upsets happen much more frequently.  I have intimate knowledge of the rating system and database over at BoxRec, as well as the ones used here, obviously, and I estimate that upsets on the relevant level happen about 2.5 times as much in MMA, than they do in boxing.  Having said that, what happens if Alvarez or Johnson lose?  After all, shit happens.  What happens if they win?  Who cares?

I hope the money is worth it.

 

2018 Awards: Men’s Fighters of the Year

8 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents.  It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

 

Winner: Daniel Cormier

I like easy decisions.  Cormier picked up three wins, all in title fights and is now a double champion.  What more can you ask for?

 

Runner-Up: Khabib Nurmagomedov

After Cormier, it gets fuzzy.. you’re basically looking for fighters with two or more wins in major title fights and Nurmagomedov fits the bill.

 

3rd Place: Dustin Poirier

Wins over two highly ranked fighters in a calendar year is a larger rarity than you might think and I hate considering fighters for such a distinction if they only fought once.  Poirier had about as good of year as you can, without challenging for or defending a major title.

2018 Awards: Women’s Fighters of the Year

7 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents.  It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

 

Winner: Amanda Nunes

Only two fights in the calendar year, but is now a double champion and cemented her place in the Top 3 All-Time (Women).

 

Runner-Up: Valentina Shevchenko

Like Nunes, she only fought twice in 2018, but also like Nunes, beat one of the best female fighters of all-time and picked up a championship in doing so.

 

3rd Place: Jessica Andrade

The third position isn’t as definitive as the top two, as you argue other fighters here, such as Ayaka Hamasaki.  However, Andrade has probably established herself as the best non-champion on the female side of the sport.

Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (01-06-2019)

6 Jan , 2019,
jcs
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Notable Info

  • Semi-annual community adjustment made for male JP population.
  • Data issue resolved where many TUF bouts were removed from the database.

2018 Awards: Rookies of the Year

Jan , 2019,
jcs
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Men: Rafal Kijanczuk

You can’t argue with a 7-0 record in a calendar year and his opposition has been very good for a rookie fighter.  We got the most recent win in the DB just a few minutes ago, so I expect him to get in or near the Top 100 on the next update.

Honorable Mentions: Khamzat Chimaev

 

Women: Kayla Harrison

It is tough to get excited over a fighter without an officially recognized division, but her 2018 performances have been good enough to net her this award.

Honorable Mention: Kay Hansen