This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. In addition to those, there should also be considerations to stylistic differences and the possibility of bad scoring — both of which, will not be considered here.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
|Fight||Odds Favorite||Rating Favorite||I’d bet on||“Gotchas”|
|Beal vs. Seery||Beal (-207 / Moderate)||Beal (1.41x / Small)||PASS||#1|
|Bektic vs. Redmond||Bektic (-707 / Very Large)||Bektic (1.38x / Small)||Redmond||#1, #3|
|Erokhin vs. Pesta||Erokhin (-372 / Large)||Erokhin (4.18x / Massive)||Erokhin|
|Christodoulou vs. Taisumov||Taisumov (-865 / Very Large)||Taisumov (2.40x / Large)||PASS|
|Krylov vs. Nedkov||Krylov (-126 / Very Small)||Krylov (1.75x / Moderate)||PASS||#1, #2|
|Amirkhani vs. Ogle||Ogle (-152 / Small)||Ogle (1.00x / EVEN)||Amirkhani|
|Robertson vs. Aliev||Aliev (-156 / Small)||Robertson (1.11x / Very Small)||PASS||#1|
|Musoke vs. Tumenov||Tumenov (-134 / Very Small)||Musoke (1.27x / Small)||Musoke||#4|
|Corassani vs. Sicilia||Corassani (-128 / Very Small)||Corassani (1.85x / Moderate)||Corassani|
|Davis vs. Bader||Davis (-253 / Moderate)||Davis (1.77x / Moderate)||PASS|
|Mousasi vs. Henderson||Mousasi (-504 / Very Large)||Henderson (1.80x / Moderate)||Henderson||#1|
|Gustafsson vs. Johnson||Gustafsson (-284 / Moderate)||Johnson (1.16x / Very Small)||PASS||#4|
Now, to the results – given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many relevant gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Corassani and Erokhin are the two favorites I’d consider backing here. Erokhin, due to the substantial rating advantage and Corassani mainly due to the hometown advantage.
Underdogs to consider:
- Redmond over Bektic – Bektic is a huge odds favorite and while Redmond is dropping a division, this seems like a reasonable chance to take.
- Amirkhani over Ogle - The ratings are basically even and with Ogle having such a poor stretch, I’d side with the newcomer in this one who is also close to home.
- Musoke over Tumenov – Styles aside, I see no reason to go against Musoke. Rating advantage + Hometown advantage typically equals favorite.
- Henderson over Mousasi – I’ve been known to side with the aging legend when I shouldn’t. In this case, Mousasi to me, is not a -500 favorite. He feels more like a -250 favorite to me, at best. It’s almost as if people are getting Mousasi mixed up with Machida.
Johnson is a really tempting pick. If this event were anywhere else, I would’ve picked him in a second.
Posted on January 23, 2015 by jcs