This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
|Fight||Odds Favorite||Rating Favorite||I’d bet on||“Gotchas”|
|Martins vs. Larsen||Martins (-269 / Moderate)||Martins (1.95x / Large)||PASS||#4|
|da Silva vs. Cariaso||da Silva (-143 / Small)||da Silva (1.02x / Pick ‘Em)||PASS||#4|
|Lineker vs. Gashimov||Lineker (-146 / Small)||Lineker (4.54x / Massive)||Lineker||#1, #3, #4|
|Maldonado vs. Hollett||Maldonado (-250 / Moderate)||Hollett (1.54x / Moderate)||Hollett||#4|
|Dias vs. Lentz||Lentz (-144 / Small)||Lentz (1.49x / Moderate)||PASS||#4|
|Alcantara vs. Santos||Alcantara (-508 / Very Large)||Alcantara (2.39x / Large)||Santos|
|Thiago vs. Richard dos Prazeres||Thiago (-164 / Small)||Thiago (1.50x / Moderate)||PASS||#3|
|Tibau vs. Cholish||Tibau (-215 / Moderate)||Tibau (2.59x / Large)||Tibau||#4|
|Trinaldo vs. Rio||Trinaldo (-341 / Large)||Trinaldo (1.87x / Large)||PASS||#4|
|Zeferino vs. Natal||Natal (-330 / Large)||Natal (1.82x / Moderate)||Zeferino|
|dos Anjos vs. Dunham||dos Anjos (-191 / Moderate)||dos Anjos (1.43x / Small)||PASS||#4|
|Souza vs. Camozzi||Souza (-568 / Very Large)||Souza (2.12x / Large)||PASS||#4|
|Belfort vs. Rockhold||Rockhold (-126 / Very Small)||Belfort (1.13x / Very Small)||PASS||#3, #4|
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Lineker, Tibau
Underdogs to consider:
- Zeferino over Natal- A bit of a speculative play here. The odds are just a tad too wide for Natal.
- Santos over Alcantara – See above. We have Alcantara as something like a -450 favorite. This one is tight and worth a tiny bet at most.
- Hollett over Maldonado – Though Maldonado is at home and a moderate favorite, his three straight losses and the rating system disagree pretty strongly.
Posted on May 16, 2013 by jcs