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UFC 183: The return of Anderson Silva!  Does anything else need to be said about this card?  Frankly I would buy this Pay-Per-View for the main event alone.   However I will stick to one of the ground rules I laid out when starting the ‘Bang for Your Buck‘ series: $25 is the ceiling for any single fight.  Also, 183 features a very solid under-card.  So is it worth $60?  Let’s find out:

 

Main Event: [#6 MW] Anderson Silva  vs [NR] Nick Diaz

Worth: $20

Why: Besides sticking to my ceiling of $25 per fight, I’ll also try to be objective and say that no matter how excited I am for Anderson’s return, this fight doesn’t quite measure up to Jones vs Cormier – the last and only fight so far that I valuated at the max price.  Silva is 39, has not fought in over a year, has not won in two, and is returning after a crippling injury.  These are the main reasons this fight is interesting: anything less than a spectacular finish for Silva would mean that one of the greatest fighters ever might as well call it a career.

Silva’s opponent Nick Diaz is almost a decade younger – and age is just about the only thing on his side in this bout.  He has not fought in almost two years, has not won in over three, and is a primarily a welterweight who infrequently dabbles in 155 & 185 bouts.  Stylistically, Nick’s plodding forward, volume striking style is perfect fodder fro Silva’s counter-striking.  However Silva’s age, recent injury, and recent performances are begging the question: is Anderson Silva getting too old for this shit?  If he somehow manages to lose to Nick Diaz, the answer is a resounding ‘Yes’.

Continue reading 'Bang for Your Buck: UFC 183'

Posted on January 29, 2015 by oleg

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Middleweight (185)
[#6] Anderson Silva (33-6-0, -462) vs. [*] Nick Diaz (26-9-0, +355)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Middleweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (1-2-0)
2013-12-28: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#3P4P] Chris Weidman (12-0-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 1:16 of round 2
2013-07-06: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD/#3P4P] Chris Weidman (12-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2012-10-13: W vs. [#58LHW] Stephan Bonnar (15-9-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (1-2-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [*] Georges St. Pierre (25-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2012-02-04: L vs. [#7WW] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-10-29: W vs. [*] B.J. Penn (16-10-2) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 399, Nick Diaz 686
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#4] Tyron Woodley (14-3-0, -104) vs. [#12] Kelvin Gastelum (10-0-0, -120)
Tyron Woodley is the All-Time #22 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (2-1-0)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#14WW] Dong Hyun Kim (19-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1
2014-06-14: L vs. [#2WW/#10P4P] Rory MacDonald (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#7WW] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#19WW] Jake Ellenberger (29-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#40WW] Nicholas Musoke (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2014-03-15: W vs. [#16WW] Rick Story (18-8-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tyron Woodley 161, Kelvin Gastelum 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#19] Joe Lauzon (24-9-0, +160) vs. [#21] Al Iaquinta (11-3-1, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2014-09-05: W vs. [#41LW] Michael Chiesa (11-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:14 of round 2
2013-12-14: W vs. [*] Mac Danzig (21-12-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-17: L vs. [#13LW] Michael Johnson (15-8-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Al Iaquinta (2-1-0)
2014-11-07: W vs. [#34LW] Ross Pearson (16-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2014-09-05: W vs. [#100LW] Rodrigo Damm (12-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:41 of round 3
2014-05-24: L vs. [#36LW] Mitch Clarke (11-2-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:57 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Lauzon 148, Al Iaquinta 85
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joe Lauzon leads 1-0
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Continue reading 'Fight Matrix Program: UFC 183 (01-31-2015)'

Posted on January 29, 2015 by jcs

MMA Ranks, Upcoming Events | Comments (2)


Notable Info

  • Bug fixed in Pound-for-Pound rankings (new subjective style, not Division Dominance)

Posted on January 29, 2015 by jcs

MMA Ranks | Comments (0)


Sometimes fights are stopped too early and sometimes too late. In a perfect world, of course, all fights would have been stopped exactly on time.  But realistically judges usually have to decide (in a split second) between stopping the fight or letting it continue when the fighter seem to be really hurt but might still be able to continue.

The upside of stopping the fight at that point is that of the protecting the safety of the fighters, while the down side is that of stopping a potentially intriguing and important fight, robbing the fans of it’s entertainment value and maybe changing the rightful outcome of the fight, thus disrupting the whole true rankings and future fight schedule.

When should a judge, then, err on the side of caution and should he let the fight continue to a more definitive outcome?

The answer, in my opinion, primarily depends on the significance of the fight.

Yes, we all think that all fights should be judged exactly the same, like we think all fighters should be treated the same. But this is not the reality. Top fighters earn differently and get different treatment from promoters and athletic commissions, and main events get 5 rounds even when they are not title fights. The point is that top fights are much more important than all other fights. These are the fights that the fans care about the most by far, these are the fights that are most important for the sport and these are the fights that are most important for the fighters.

Continue reading 'Early or Late Stoppages'

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Ked Becker

Other | Comments (3)


This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

  1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
  2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
  3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
  4. Notable home advantage.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  In addition to those, there should also be considerations to stylistic differences and the possibility of bad scoring — both of which, will not be considered here.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

 

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight Odds Favorite Rating Favorite I’d bet on “Gotchas”
Beal vs. Seery Beal (-207 / Moderate) Beal (1.41x / Small) PASS #1
Bektic vs. Redmond Bektic (-707 / Very Large) Bektic (1.38x / Small) Redmond #1, #3
Erokhin vs. Pesta Erokhin (-372 / Large) Erokhin (4.18x / Massive) Erokhin
Christodoulou vs. Taisumov Taisumov (-865 / Very Large) Taisumov (2.40x / Large) PASS
Krylov vs. Nedkov Krylov (-126 / Very Small) Krylov (1.75x / Moderate) PASS #1, #2
Amirkhani vs. Ogle Ogle (-152 / Small) Ogle (1.00x / EVEN) Amirkhani
Robertson vs. Aliev Aliev (-156 / Small) Robertson (1.11x / Very Small) PASS #1
Musoke vs. Tumenov Tumenov (-134 / Very Small) Musoke (1.27x / Small) Musoke #4
Corassani vs. Sicilia Corassani (-128 / Very Small) Corassani (1.85x / Moderate) Corassani
Davis vs. Bader Davis (-253 / Moderate) Davis (1.77x / Moderate) PASS
Mousasi vs. Henderson Mousasi (-504 / Very Large) Henderson (1.80x / Moderate) Henderson #1
Gustafsson vs. Johnson Gustafsson (-284 / Moderate) Johnson (1.16x / Very Small) PASS #4

Now, to the results – given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many relevant gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

 

Favorites to consider: Corassani and Erokhin are the two favorites I’d consider backing here.  Erokhin, due to the substantial rating advantage and Corassani mainly due to the hometown advantage.

 

Underdogs to consider:

  • Redmond over Bektic – Bektic is a huge odds favorite and while Redmond is dropping a division, this seems like a reasonable chance to take.
  • Amirkhani over Ogle - The ratings are basically even and with Ogle having such a poor stretch, I’d side with the newcomer in this one who is also close to home.
  • Musoke over Tumenov – Styles aside, I see no reason to go against Musoke.  Rating advantage + Hometown advantage typically equals favorite.
  • Henderson over Mousasi – I’ve been known to side with the aging legend when I shouldn’t.  In this case, Mousasi to me, is not a -500 favorite.  He feels more like a -250 favorite to me, at best.  It’s almost as if people are getting Mousasi mixed up with Machida.

 

Johnson is a really tempting pick.  If this event were anywhere else, I would’ve picked him in a second.

Posted on January 23, 2015 by jcs

MMA Statistics, Upcoming Events | Comments (4)


Good news, fight fans!  This weekend’s UFC on FOX 14, live from Stockholm Sweden, will be broadcast on the Fox network (as if that wasn’t clear from the title…).  That means this event is free – free as in free beer, no PPV cost, no need to estimate the cable prices or Fight Pass subscription rates.  Any US fan with a TV can watch the main card for absolutely no charge.  What’s even better is that UFC tends to stack the Fox cards, so that they are on par with most numbered PPV events (and better than some).   There are even a couple of interesting fights on the prelims, but more on that later.  For now, lets dive right in and try to figure out how much this card would be worth if it were on PPV instead of Fox.

 

Main Event:  [#3 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs  [#6 LHW] Alexander Gustafsson 

Worth: $20

Why: Who would have ever thought that in 2015,  Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson – the guy who lost to Rich Clementi and Josh Koscheck as a welterweight, and consistently struggled to make weight at 170 and 185 lbs alike – would be fighting in a top contender bout for a crack at Jon Jones’ light heavyweight title?  Of course he would have to get past Alexander Gustafsson first – a tall task against Jones’ toughest opponent to date.  This is an awesome fight, the only thing it’s missing is a title on the line, and that will be up next for the winner.

Continue reading 'Bang for Your Buck: UFC on FOX 14'

Posted on January 22, 2015 by oleg

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Notable Info

  • Bad result from last UFC event fixed (Case/Perez).
  • Obscure bug fixed that improperly altered rating points of fighters involved in very specific scenarios (less than 0.1% of fighters).

Posted on January 22, 2015 by jcs

MMA Ranks | Comments (0)


Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Anthony Johnson (18-4-0, +185) vs. [#6] Alexander Gustafsson (16-2-0, -232)
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Johnson (3-0-0)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#12LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1
2014-04-26: W vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-01-18: W vs. [#43HW+] Mike Kyle (20-12-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (2-1-0)
2014-03-08: W vs. [#18LHW] Jimi Manuwa (14-1-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-09-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#14LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Johnson 182, Alexander Gustafsson 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Johnson leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#7LHW] Dan Henderson (30-12-0, +250) vs. [#8] Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2, -322)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #17 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (1-2-0)
2014-05-24: L vs. [#2LHW] Daniel Cormier (15-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3
2014-03-23: W vs. [#14LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 3
2013-11-09: L vs. [#3MW] Vitor Belfort (24-10-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (1-2-0)
2014-09-05: L vs. [#4MW] Ronaldo Souza (21-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3
2014-05-31: W vs. [#17MW] Mark Munoz (13-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2014-02-15: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD/#10P4P] Lyoto Machida (22-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 245, Gegard Mousasi 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dan Henderson leads 3-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Phil Davis (13-2-0, -246) vs. [#9] Ryan Bader (18-4-0, +191)
Phil Davis is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Ryan Bader is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-1-0)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#8LHW] Glover Teixeira (22-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-04-26: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Johnson (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-03: W vs. [#2MW/#8DD/#10P4P] Lyoto Machida (22-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Bader (3-0-0)
2014-08-16: W vs. [#11LHW] Ovince St. Preux (17-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2014-06-14: W vs. [#24LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-07: W vs. [#28LHW] Anthony Perosh (15-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Phil Davis 91, Ryan Bader 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Phil Davis leads 5-3
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Continue reading 'Fight Matrix Program: UFC on Fox 14 (01-24-2015)'

Posted on January 22, 2015 by jcs

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