Fight Matrix Program – UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer (2020-06-06)

1 Jun , 2020,
Jason

Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0, -582) vs. [#6] Felicia Spencer (8-1-0, +417)
Amanda Nunes is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Nunes (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#1BW/#8DD/#9P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-45, 49-44)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Holly Holm (13-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-12-29: W vs. [#2FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (22-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Felicia Spencer (2-1-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#25FW] Zarah Fairn dos Santos (6-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:37 of round 1
2019-07-27: L vs. [#2FW/#4DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (22-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#7FW] Megan Anderson (11-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Nunes -582 81.52%
Elo K170 Amanda Nunes 2024.67 +498.24 90.69%
Elo Modified Amanda Nunes 1987.37 +417.36 86.14%
Glicko-1 Amanda Nunes 2050.60 +477.15 93.98%
WHR Amanda Nunes 2142.16 +172.97 68.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Amanda Nunes 175, Felicia Spencer 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Nunes leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Raphael Assuncao (27-7-0, +120) vs. [*] Cody Garbrandt (11-3-0, -146)
Raphael Assuncao is the All-Time #20 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #7 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Raphael Assuncao (1-2-0)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#5BW] Cory Sandhagen (12-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:17 of round 1
2018-07-07: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (0-3-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#6BW] Pedro Munhoz (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 1
2018-08-04: L vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2017-11-04: L vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cody Garbrandt -146 56.63%
Elo K170 Raphael Assuncao 1855.29 +53.47 56.08%
Elo Modified Cody Garbrandt 1825.74 +10.56 51.16%
Glicko-1 Cody Garbrandt 1844.49 +9.92 51.43%
WHR Cody Garbrandt 1940.75 +56.03 56.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raphael Assuncao 294, Cody Garbrandt 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raphael Assuncao leads 2-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Aljamain Sterling (18-3-0, -114) vs. [#5] Cory Sandhagen (12-1-0, -109)
Aljamain Sterling is the All-Time #24 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Aljamain Sterling (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#6BW] Pedro Munhoz (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#11BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#75FW] Cody Stamann (18-2-1) via Submission (Kneebar) in 3:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Cory Sandhagen (3-0-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#17BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#30FW] John Lineker (32-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-01-19: W vs. [#68BW] Mario Bautista (8-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:31 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Aljamain Sterling -114 50.53%
Elo K170 Aljamain Sterling 2120.72 +176.70 69.15%
Elo Modified Aljamain Sterling 2086.47 +207.28 71.25%
Glicko-1 Aljamain Sterling 2143.59 +220.63 78.08%
WHR Aljamain Sterling 2043.07 +26.15 52.98%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aljamain Sterling 364, Cory Sandhagen 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cory Sandhagen leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#16] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5-0, +124) vs. [#18] Neil Magny (22-7-0, -149)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #47 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Rocco Martin (2-1-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#36WW] Ramazan Emeev (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#14WW] Demian Maia (28-10-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#78WW] Sergio Moraes (14-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#37WW] Jingliang Li (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-17: L vs. [*] Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:36 of round 4
2018-05-27: W vs. [#239WW] Craig White (14-11-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 4:32 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Neil Magny -149 57.27%
Elo K170 Anthony Rocco Martin 2020.97 +0.56 50.07%
Elo Modified Anthony Rocco Martin 2015.54 +17.10 51.87%
Glicko-1 Anthony Rocco Martin 2098.13 +56.60 58.08%
WHR Anthony Rocco Martin 2048.78 +51.27 55.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Rocco Martin 210, Neil Magny 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Rocco Martin leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#36] Sean OMalley (11-0-0, -428) vs. [#54] Eddie Wineland (24-13-1, +324)
Eddie Wineland is the All-Time #19 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (3-0-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#94BW] Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 1
2018-03-03: W vs. [#109BW] Andre Soukhamthath (13-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2017-12-01: W vs. [#364BW] Terrion Ware (17-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Wineland (1-2-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#317BW] Grigory Popov (13-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2018-07-14: L vs. [#43BW] Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-04-22: L vs. [#10BW] John Dodson (21-11-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -428 77.46%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 1689.08 +26.06 52.97%
Elo Modified Sean OMalley 1722.22 +72.73 57.89%
Glicko-1 Sean OMalley 1756.38 +38.54 55.52%
WHR Sean OMalley 2061.31 +276.55 77.96%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 91, Eddie Wineland 364
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#92] Alex Caceres (15-12-0, +118) vs. [#134] Chase Hooper (9-0-1, -144)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Caceres (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#145FW] Steven Peterson (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#56FW] Kron Gracie (5-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2018-07-06: W vs. [#364FW] Martin Bravo (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Chase Hooper (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#349FW] Daniel Teymur (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:34 of round 1
2019-06-28: W vs. [#507FW] Luis Gomez (7-4-0) via SUB in 3:31 of round 1
2019-03-22: W vs. [#2218LW] Sky Moiseichik (8-8-0) via TKO in 3:47 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Chase Hooper -144 56.26%
Elo K170 Chase Hooper 1547.92 +38.32 54.37%
Elo Modified Chase Hooper 1601.96 +46.30 55.05%
Glicko-1 Chase Hooper 1598.36 +56.88 58.11%
WHR Chase Hooper 1930.32 +241.53 75.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Caceres 322, Chase Hooper 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#22] Ian Heinisch (13-3-0, -128) vs. [#38] Gerald Meerschaert (31-12-0, +103)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Heinisch (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#14MW] Omari Akhmedov (20-4-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#12MW] Derek Brunson (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#20MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Gerald Meerschaert (2-1-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#82MW] Deron Winn (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 3
2019-10-12: L vs. [#36MW] Eryk Anders (13-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#37MW] Trevin Giles (12-2-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:49 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ian Heinisch -128 53.26%
Elo K170 Ian Heinisch 1739.64 +116.47 63.00%
Elo Modified Gerald Meerschaert 1741.36 +4.49 50.49%
Glicko-1 Gerald Meerschaert 1839.08 +46.79 56.69%
WHR Ian Heinisch 1987.95 +21.93 52.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Heinisch 175, Gerald Meerschaert 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#43] Brian Kelleher (21-10-0) vs. [#75] Cody Stamann (18-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Kelleher (2-1-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#262FW] Hunter Azure (8-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 2
2020-01-18: W vs. [#252BW] Ode Osbourne (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:49 of round 1
2018-12-29: L vs. [#19BW] Montel Jackson (9-1-0) via Submission (DArce Choke) in 1:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cody Stamann (1-1-1)
2019-12-07: D vs. [#15BW] Yadong Song (16-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-03-02: W vs. [#43BW] Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2BW] Aljamain Sterling (18-3-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 3:42 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Cody Stamann 1840.22 +156.89 67.19%
Elo Modified Cody Stamann 1778.82 +81.81 58.86%
Glicko-1 Cody Stamann 1796.13 +74.38 60.54%
WHR Brian Kelleher 1917.52 +130.27 64.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Kelleher 24, Cody Stamann 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[*] Charles Byrd (10-6-0, -172) vs. [#224] Maki Pitolo (12-5-0, +143)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Byrd (1-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#21MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2018-09-08: L vs. [#63MW] Darren Stewart (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:17 of round 2
2018-03-17: W vs. [#143MW] John Phillips (22-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:58 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maki Pitolo (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#209WW] Callan Potter (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#258MW] Justin Michael Sumter (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:37 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#515WW] Chris Cisneros (19-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:40 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Charles Byrd -172 60.58%
Elo K170 Maki Pitolo 1427.57 +4.20 50.48%
Elo Modified Maki Pitolo 1462.98 +36.61 54.00%
Glicko-1 Maki Pitolo 1490.89 +30.64 54.40%
WHR Maki Pitolo 1825.27 +25.25 52.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Byrd 462, Maki Pitolo 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#5] Jussier Formiga (23-7-0, +118) vs. [#7] Alex Perez (23-5-0, -143)
Jussier Formiga is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Alex Perez is the All-Time #39 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jussier Formiga (1-2-0)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [#1FLY/#10DD/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (2-1-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#31FLY] Jordan Espinosa (14-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:33 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#69FLY] Mark De La Rosa (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-30: L vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-6-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 4:19 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Perez -143 56.19%
Elo K170 Alex Perez 1806.39 +30.72 53.50%
Elo Modified Alex Perez 1796.33 +30.58 53.34%
Glicko-1 Jussier Formiga 1814.75 +9.49 51.37%
WHR Jussier Formiga 1972.44 +50.11 55.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier Formiga 84, Alex Perez 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#46] Alonzo Menifield (9-0-0, -225) vs. [#54] Devin Clark (11-4-0, +181)

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (3-0-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#43LHW] Paul Craig (12-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#149LHW] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
2018-06-12: W vs. [*] Dashawn Boatwright (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Devin Clark (2-1-0)
2020-02-15: W vs. [#154LHW] Dequan Townsend (22-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#15LHW] Ryan Spann (18-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2
2019-06-01: W vs. [#110LHW] Darko Stosic (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alonzo Menifield -225 66.04%
Elo K170 Alonzo Menifield 1649.96 +63.54 57.21%
Elo Modified Alonzo Menifield 1697.34 +92.85 60.02%
Glicko-1 Alonzo Menifield 1718.23 +125.19 67.28%
WHR Alonzo Menifield 2058.81 +135.62 65.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 343, Devin Clark 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (150)
[*] Evan Dunham (18-8-1) vs. [#116] Herbert Burns (10-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (0-2-1)
2018-09-22: L vs. [#17LW] Francisco Trinaldo (25-7-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:10 of round 2
2018-04-07: L vs. [#49LW] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-5-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
2017-10-07: D vs. [#15LW] Beneil Dariush (18-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Herbert Burns (3-0-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#33FW] Nate Landwehr (14-3-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:43 of round 1
2019-08-06: W vs. [#142FW] Darrick Minner (24-11-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 2:29 of round 1
2019-04-26: W vs. [#507FW] Luis Gomez (7-4-0) via SUB in 2:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Herbert Burns 1741.67 +10.17 51.16%
Elo Modified Herbert Burns 1764.67 +36.95 54.03%
Glicko-1 Herbert Burns 1816.04 +122.71 66.96%
WHR Herbert Burns 2026.78 +235.69 74.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Evan Dunham 623, Herbert Burns 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Aljamain Sterling
Highest Stored DD Rating: Amanda Nunes
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Anthony Rocco Martin vs. Neil Magny
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2020-6-3