Fight Matrix Program – UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone (01-18-2020)

13 Jan , 2020,
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Welterweight (170)
[#16] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0, +247) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0, -316)
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-05-04: W vs. [#12LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#4P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2016-11-12: W vs. [#27WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2016-08-20: W vs. [#11WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Conor McGregor – Win%: 72.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Conor McGregor (2172.99) [+190.54] – Win%: 70.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Conor McGregor (2111.55) [+152.79] – Win%: 66.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Conor McGregor (2112.86) [+120.48] – Win%: 70.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 126, Conor McGregor 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Conor McGregor leads 3-2
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Holly Holm (12-5-0, -137) vs. [#5] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0, +112)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#6BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#2BW/#8DD] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5

Odds Favorite (Implied): Holly Holm – Win%: 55.06
Elo Favorite (Standard): Raquel Pennington (1583.55) [+56.64] – Win%: 56.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Raquel Pennington (1542.93) [+10.96] – Win%: 51.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Holly Holm (1561.35) [+30.00] – Win%: 55.62
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 196, Raquel Pennington 182
Previous Match-up Record: Holly Holm leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#18] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1, +110) vs. [#58] Maurice Greene (8-3-0, -135)

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#14HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-09-15: W vs. [#19HW+] Mark Hunt (13-14-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#36HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-06-29: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#94HW+] Jeff Hughes (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Maurice Greene – Win%: 54.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Oleynik (1634.72) [+94.73] – Win%: 60.65
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Oleynik (1693.73) [+155.53] – Win%: 66.39
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexey Oleynik (1680.24) [+164.59] – Win%: 78.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 182, Maurice Greene 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#8] Claudia Gadelha (17-4-0, -114) vs. [#14] Alexa Grasso (11-3-0, -110)
Claudia Gadelha is the All-Time #26 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#15SW] Randa Markos (10-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#7SW] Nina Ansaroff (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (1-2-0)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#23SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-19: L vs. [#5SW] Tatiana Suarez (8-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Claudia Gadelha – Win%: 50.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): Claudia Gadelha (1627.09) [+163.14] – Win%: 67.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Claudia Gadelha (1618.73) [+115.55] – Win%: 62.38
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Claudia Gadelha (1605.72) [+112.58] – Win%: 70.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Claudia Gadelha 196, Alexa Grasso 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Claudia Gadelha leads 3-2
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Lightweight (155)
[#5] Anthony Pettis (22-9-0, +200) vs. [#16] Diego Ferreira (16-2-0, -250)
Anthony Pettis is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight and #39 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (1-2-0)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#11WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#8WW] Stephen Thompson (15-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2
2018-10-06: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Diego Ferreira (3-0-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#42LW] Mairbek Taisumov (27-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#62WW] Rustam Khabilov (24-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#182FW] Kyle Nelson (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Diego Ferreira – Win%: 68.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Diego Ferreira (2031.21) [+87.52] – Win%: 59.87
Elo Favorite (Modified): Diego Ferreira (2014.05) [+72.04] – Win%: 57.82
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Diego Ferreira (1991.25) [+24.58] – Win%: 54.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Pettis 154, Diego Ferreira 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#7] Maycee Barber (8-0-0, -970) vs. [#17] Roxanne Modafferi (23-16-0, +612)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #21 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (3-0-0)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#27FLY] Gillian Robertson (7-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2019-03-23: W vs. [#35FLY] J.J. Aldrich (8-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2018-11-10: W vs. [#37SW] Hannah Cifers (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#6FLY] Jennifer Maia (17-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#12FLY] Antonina Shevchenko (8-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#22BW] Sijara Eubanks (4-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Maycee Barber – Win%: 86.58
Elo Favorite (Standard): Maycee Barber (1600.07) [+182.57] – Win%: 69.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Maycee Barber (1635.62) [+244.92] – Win%: 74.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Maycee Barber (1604.25) [+186.56] – Win%: 80.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maycee Barber 92, Roxanne Modafferi 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#20] Andre Fili (20-6-0, +111) vs. [#45] Sodiq Yusuff (10-1-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Fili (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#118FW] Sheymon Moraes (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:07 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#102LW] Myles Jury (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-08-25: L vs. [#85LW] Michael Johnson (19-15-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

Last 3 Fights: Sodiq Yusuff (3-0-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#72FW] Gabriel Benitez (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#118FW] Sheymon Moraes (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#1364FW] Suman Mokhtarian (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sodiq Yusuff – Win%: 54.87
Elo Favorite (Standard): Andre Fili (1836.81) [+101.13] – Win%: 61.35
Elo Favorite (Modified): Andre Fili (1826.55) [+75.27] – Win%: 58.16
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Andre Fili (1825.63) [+76.22] – Win%: 63.78
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Fili 189, Sodiq Yusuff 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#58] Drew Dober (21-9-0, +259) vs. [#61] Nasrat Haqparast (11-2-0, -335)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#473FW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 1
2019-03-09: L vs. [#18LW] Beneil Dariush (17-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:41 of round 2
2018-08-25: W vs. [#136WW] Jon Tuck (11-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Nasrat Haqparast (3-0-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#113LW] Joaquim Silva (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:36 of round 2
2018-10-27: W vs. [#260LW] Thibault Gouti (12-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 30-26)
2018-07-22: W vs. [#79LW] Marc Diakiese (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Nasrat Haqparast – Win%: 73.43
Elo Favorite (Standard): Drew Dober (1689.13) [+26.72] – Win%: 53.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Drew Dober (1708.83) [+45.87] – Win%: 55.00
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Drew Dober (1677.96) [+1.69] – Win%: 50.32
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 203, Nasrat Haqparast 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#51] Grant Dawson (14-1-0, -268) vs. [#84] Chas Skelly (18-4-0, +214)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (3-0-0)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#160FW] Michael Trizano (8-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 2
2019-03-09: W vs. [#188FW] Julian Erosa (22-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 30-26)
2017-08-15: W vs. [*] Adrian Diaz (11-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chas Skelly (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#172FW] Jordan Griffin (17-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#101FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:43 of round 2
2017-05-13: L vs. [#89FW] Jason Knight (20-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:39 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Grant Dawson – Win%: 69.57
Elo Favorite (Standard): Grant Dawson (1739.84) [+61.72] – Win%: 57.00
Elo Favorite (Modified): Grant Dawson (1729.84) [+41.05] – Win%: 54.48
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Grant Dawson (1712.67) [+7.04] – Win%: 51.33
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 245, Chas Skelly 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#142] Justin Ledet (9-2-0, -101) vs. [#228] Aleksa Camur (5-0-0, -123)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Ledet (1-2-0)
2019-02-02: L vs. [#28LHW] Johnny Walker (17-4-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches) in 0:15 of round 1
2018-07-22: L vs. [#19LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (12-2-0) via UD (30-24, 30-24, 30-25)
2017-09-16: W vs. [#101HW+] Azunna Anyanwu (15-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Aleksa Camur (3-0-0)
2019-07-30: W vs. [#471LHW] Fabio Cherant (4-1-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:48 of round 2
2018-08-18: W vs. [*] Marvin Skipper (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 1
2018-03-31: W vs. [NA] Allen Bose (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Aleksa Camur – Win%: 52.32
Elo Favorite (Standard): Justin Ledet (1471.19) [+117.80] – Win%: 63.14
Elo Favorite (Modified): Justin Ledet (1484.26) [+37.52] – Win%: 54.10
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Justin Ledet (1469.03) [+60.27] – Win%: 61.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Ledet 350, Aleksa Camur 172
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#8] Askar Askarov (10-0-1, -129) vs. [#15] Tim Elliott (15-9-1, +104)
Askar Askarov is the All-Time #35 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Tim Elliott is the All-Time #48 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Askar Askarov (2-0-1)
2019-09-21: D vs. [#6FLY] Brandon Moreno (16-5-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2018-05-05: W vs. [#14FLY] Rasul Albaskhanov (10-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:59 of round 2
2017-04-22: W vs. [#111BW] Anthony Leone (17-9-0) via Submission (Twister) in 2:41 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Tim Elliott (1-2-0)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#3FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (17-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:08 of round 1
2017-12-30: W vs. [#50FLY] Mark De La Rosa (11-3-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:41 of round 2
2017-06-10: L vs. [#140BW] Ben Nguyen (16-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:49 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Askar Askarov – Win%: 53.46
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tim Elliott (1722.49) [+10.88] – Win%: 51.24
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tim Elliott (1716.47) [+19.49] – Win%: 52.13
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Askar Askarov (1720.74) [+25.26] – Win%: 54.75
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Askar Askarov 119, Tim Elliott 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#33] Brian Kelleher (19-10-0, +110) vs. [#254] Ode Osbourne (8-2-0, -135)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Kelleher (1-2-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#20BW] Montel Jackson (8-1-0) via Submission (DArce Choke) in 1:40 of round 1
2018-05-12: L vs. [#29FW] John Lineker (32-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:43 of round 3
2018-02-24: W vs. [#230FW] Renan Barao (34-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Ode Osbourne (3-0-0)
2019-07-16: W vs. [#540BW] Armando Villarreal (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:39 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#1322FW] Kelly Offield (3-2-0) via SUB in 4:07 of round 1
2018-10-20: W vs. [NA] Seigenald Aurtan Daley Jr (3-9-0) via TKO in 2:16 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ode Osbourne – Win%: 54.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brian Kelleher (1575.48) [+236.81] – Win%: 74.69
Elo Favorite (Modified): Brian Kelleher (1596.87) [+252.66] – Win%: 75.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Brian Kelleher (1547.80) [+167.90] – Win%: 78.66
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Kelleher 385, Ode Osbourne 186
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#35] J.J. Aldrich (8-3-0, -110) vs. [#40] Sabina Mazo (7-1-0, -114)

Last 3 Fights: J.J. Aldrich (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#137FLY] Lauren Mueller (5-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#7FLY] Maycee Barber (8-0-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:01 of round 2
2018-08-04: W vs. [#74SW] Polyana Viana (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sabina Mazo (2-1-0)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#162FLY] Shana Dobson (3-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-24, 30-25)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#20FLY] Maryna Moroz (9-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-16: W vs. [#114FLY] Caroline Yariwake da Cruz (9-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sabina Mazo – Win%: 50.42
Elo Favorite (Standard): J.J. Aldrich (1443.30) [+87.65] – Win%: 59.88
Elo Favorite (Modified): J.J. Aldrich (1485.35) [+37.30] – Win%: 54.07
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): J.J. Aldrich (1464.33) [+62.57] – Win%: 61.78
Days Since Last Pro Fight: J.J. Aldrich 98, Sabina Mazo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Anthony Pettis
Highest Stored DD Rating: Anthony Pettis
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Anthony Pettis vs. Diego Ferreira
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2020-1-12