Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs. Stephens (09-21-2019)

16 Sep , 2019,
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Featherweight (145)
[#9] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0, -107) vs. [#27] Yair Rodriguez (11-2-0, -116)
Jeremy Stephens is the All-Time #17 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (1-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#8FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#3FW] Jose Aldo (28-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 1
2018-02-24: W vs. [#7FW] Josh Emmett (15-2-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Yair Rodriguez (2-1-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#13FW] Chan Sung Jung (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5
2017-05-13: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2017-01-15: W vs. [#378LW] B.J. Penn (16-14-2) via TKO (Punches) in 0:24 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yair Rodriguez – Win%: 50.95
Elo Favorite (Standard): Yair Rodriguez (1891.65) [+71.05] – Win%: 58.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Yair Rodriguez (1834.66) [+9.57] – Win%: 51.05
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Yair Rodriguez (1846.70) [+7.41] – Win%: 51.41
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jeremy Stephens 203, Yair Rodriguez 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#11] Carla Esparza (14-6-0, +123) vs. [#14] Alexa Grasso (11-2-0, -147)
Carla Esparza is the All-Time #49 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carla Esparza (1-2-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#22SW] Virna Jandiroba (14-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#5SW/#10DD] Tatiana Suarez (8-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 3
2018-06-09: L vs. [#8SW] Claudia Gadelha (17-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (2-1-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#19SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-19: L vs. [#5SW/#10DD] Tatiana Suarez (8-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:44 of round 1
2017-08-05: W vs. [#15SW] Randa Markos (9-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alexa Grasso – Win%: 57.02
Elo Favorite (Standard): Carla Esparza (1609.37) [+79.39] – Win%: 58.97
Elo Favorite (Modified): Carla Esparza (1652.02) [+142.16] – Win%: 65.07
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Carla Esparza (1647.25) [+143.88] – Win%: 75.20
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carla Esparza 147, Alexa Grasso 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#9] Brandon Moreno (15-5-0, +132) vs. [*] Askar Askarov (10-0-0, -156)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #29 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Askar Askarov is the All-Time #40 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2019-06-07: W vs. [#43FLY] Maikel Perez (6-2-0) via TKO in 1:54 of round 4
2018-05-19: L vs. [#4FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (21-4-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2017-08-05: L vs. [#6FLY] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-46, 48-46)

Last 3 Fights: Askar Askarov (3-0-0)
2018-05-05: W vs. [#19FLY] Rasul Albaskhanov (9-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:59 of round 2
2017-04-22: W vs. [#108BW] Anthony Leone (17-9-0) via Submission (Twister) in 2:49 of round 3
2016-10-22: W vs. [#92FLY] Jose Maria Tome (39-8-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:57 of round 5

Odds Favorite (Implied): Askar Askarov – Win%: 58.57
Elo Favorite (Standard): Askar Askarov (1740.01) [+123.15] – Win%: 63.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Askar Askarov (1725.45) [+138.20] – Win%: 64.68
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Askar Askarov (1724.32) [+121.27] – Win%: 71.90
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 106, Askar Askarov 504
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#10] Irene Aldana (10-5-0, -447) vs. [#16] Vanessa Melo (10-5-0, +361)

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#4BW] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#24BW] Bethe Correia (10-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:24 of round 3
2018-09-08: W vs. [#47FLY] Lucie Pudilova (8-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Melo (3-0-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#62BW] Jan Finney (11-14-0) via UD ()
2019-05-24: W vs. [#61BW] Mariana Morais (13-10-0) via UD ()
2019-02-22: W vs. [#178FLY] Filonilda Trindade da Con (4-1-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Irene Aldana – Win%: 79.02
Elo Favorite (Standard): Irene Aldana (1417.87) [+28.35] – Win%: 53.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Irene Aldana (1506.95) [+60.04] – Win%: 56.53
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Irene Aldana (1438.71) [+4.35] – Win%: 50.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Irene Aldana 63, Vanessa Melo 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#196] Steven Peterson (17-9-0, -111) vs. [#272] Martin Bravo (11-2-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Steven Peterson (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#94FW] Alex Caceres (15-12-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#133LW] Luis Pena (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-06: W vs. [#121FW] Matt Bessette (23-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Martin Bravo (1-2-0)
2018-07-06: L vs. [#94FW] Alex Caceres (15-12-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-08-05: L vs. [#289FW] Humberto Bandenay (14-7-0) via KO (Knee) in 0:26 of round 1
2016-11-05: W vs. [*] Claudio Puelles (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Martin Bravo – Win%: 50.00
Elo Favorite (Standard): Martin Bravo (1453.52) [+157.39] – Win%: 67.24
Elo Favorite (Modified): Martin Bravo (1530.11) [+184.07] – Win%: 69.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Martin Bravo (1493.74) [+174.57] – Win%: 80.35
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Steven Peterson 63, Martin Bravo 442
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#78] Jose Alberto Quinonez (7-3-0, -150) vs. [#200] Carlos Huachin (11-4-2, +126)

Last 3 Fights: Jose Alberto Quinonez (2-1-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#19BW] Nathaniel Wood (16-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:46 of round 2
2018-02-10: W vs. [#285BW] Teruto Ishihara (10-7-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-08-05: W vs. [*] Diego Rivas (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Huachin (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#15BW] Raoni Barcelos (14-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2019-03-29: W vs. [#670BW] Marcelino Cavalcante (10-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:50 of round 1
2018-11-07: W vs. [NA] Andrine Dalla Clemente (4-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:20 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jose Alberto Quinonez – Win%: 57.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jose Alberto Quinonez (1545.13) [+140.80] – Win%: 65.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jose Alberto Quinonez (1589.73) [+180.50] – Win%: 68.79
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jose Alberto Quinonez (1537.45) [+108.19] – Win%: 70.07
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Alberto Quinonez 189, Carlos Huachin 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#219LW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-6-0, +106) vs. [#357] Kyle Nelson (12-3-0, -129)

Last 3 Fights: Marco Polo Reyes (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#58LW] Drew Dober (21-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 1
2019-02-23: L vs. [#69LW] Damir Hadzovic (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 2
2018-01-14: W vs. [#147LW] Matt Frevola (7-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (1-2-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#163FW] Matt Sayles (8-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 3
2018-12-08: L vs. [#13LW] Diego Ferreira (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 2
2018-11-19: W vs. [#1659LW] Morteza Rezaei (5-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kyle Nelson – Win%: 53.71
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marco Polo Reyes (1436.25) [+33.19] – Win%: 53.78
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marco Polo Reyes (1426.87) [+11.63] – Win%: 51.27
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marco Polo Reyes (1430.04) [+19.32] – Win%: 53.76
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marco Polo Reyes 84, Kyle Nelson 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#24] Angela Hill (9-7-0, -139) vs. [#26] Ariane Carnelossi (12-1-0, +116)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (1-2-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#16SW] Xiaonan Yan (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#48SW] Jodie Esquibel (6-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#15SW] Randa Markos (9-7-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ariane Carnelossi (3-0-0)
2019-05-24: W vs. [#88SW] Ketlen Souza (8-2-0) via TKO (Body Kick) in 03:53 of round 3
2018-11-03: W vs. [#42SW] Joice Mara da Silva (10-5-0) via UD ()
2018-11-03: W vs. [NA] Aline Pires (2-4-0) via TKO in of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Angela Hill – Win%: 55.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ariane Carnelossi (1469.53) [+183.50] – Win%: 69.81
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ariane Carnelossi (1483.52) [+140.02] – Win%: 64.86
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ariane Carnelossi (1466.45) [+149.15] – Win%: 76.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 105, Ariane Carnelossi 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#6] Sergio Pettis (17-5-0, -276) vs. [#47] Tyson Nam (18-9-1, +225)
Sergio Pettis is the All-Time #18 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sergio Pettis (1-2-0)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#17BW] Rob Font (16-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#2FLY] Jussier Formiga (23-6-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#1FLY/#9DD/#10P4P] Joseph Benavidez (28-5-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Nam (2-1-0)
2019-07-03: W vs. [#273FLY] Shojin Miki (5-5-0) via UD ()
2019-04-27: W vs. [NA] Donald Gonzalez (4-10-0) via TKO in 1:03 of round 2
2018-04-01: L vs. [#14FLY] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (12-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sergio Pettis – Win%: 70.46
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sergio Pettis (1661.53) [+178.25] – Win%: 69.30
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sergio Pettis (1623.89) [+107.68] – Win%: 61.57
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Sergio Pettis (1625.11) [+107.88] – Win%: 69.84
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sergio Pettis 280, Tyson Nam 80
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#69] Paul Craig (11-4-0, -115) vs. [#135] Vinicius Moreira Castro (9-3-0, -106)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#46LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:19 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#82LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (7-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:20 of round 3
2018-12-01: L vs. [#32LHW] Jim Crute (10-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:51 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vinicius Moreira Castro (1-2-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#33MW] Eryk Anders (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2019-01-19: L vs. [#46LHW] Alonzo Menifield (9-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
2018-08-11: W vs. [#89LHW] John Allan Arte (14-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:40 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Paul Craig – Win%: 50.96
Elo Favorite (Standard): Paul Craig (1439.58) [+70.86] – Win%: 58.02
Elo Favorite (Modified): Paul Craig (1502.16) [+54.17] – Win%: 55.90
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Paul Craig (1470.04) [+60.85] – Win%: 61.80
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 84, Vinicius Moreira Castro 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Sijara Eubanks (4-3-0, -267) vs. [#24] Bethe Correia (10-4-1, +217)

Last 3 Fights: Sijara Eubanks (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#7BW] Aspen Ladd (8-1-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#19FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (23-16-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#18FLY] Lauren Murphy (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Bethe Correia (0-2-1)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#10BW] Irene Aldana (10-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:24 of round 3
2017-06-17: L vs. [#3BW] Holly Holm (12-5-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:09 of round 3
2017-03-11: D vs. [#12BW] Marion Reneau (9-5-1) via DRAW in 5:00 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sijara Eubanks – Win%: 69.75
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sijara Eubanks (1470.76) [+202.07] – Win%: 71.57
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sijara Eubanks (1519.98) [+206.61] – Win%: 71.18
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Sijara Eubanks (1478.46) [+178.01] – Win%: 80.45
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sijara Eubanks 126, Bethe Correia 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Claudio Puelles (8-3-0, -241) vs. [#957] Marcos Mariano (6-5-0, +197)

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Puelles (2-1-0)
2018-05-19: W vs. [*] Felipe Silva (8-2-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 2:23 of round 3
2016-11-05: L vs. [#272FW] Martin Bravo (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2015-04-18: W vs. [#2232LW] Alvaro Sugasti (3-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Mariano (1-2-0)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#134LW] Lando Vannata (10-3-2) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:55 of round 1
2018-10-27: W vs. [NA] Alessandro Taiete de Mato (2-5-0) via TKO in 0:38 of round 1
2017-10-21: L vs. [#944LW] Alan Francis (12-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:51 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Claudio Puelles – Win%: 67.73
Elo Favorite (Standard): Claudio Puelles (1580.09) [+468.71] – Win%: 89.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Claudio Puelles (1582.64) [+439.57] – Win%: 87.26
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Claudio Puelles (1539.79) [+370.98] – Win%: 95.17
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Claudio Puelles 490, Marcos Mariano 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Jeremy Stephens
Highest Stored DD Rating: Sergio Pettis
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-9-15