Bang for Your Buck: UFC 190

Jul 29, 2015
oleg

No rest for the weary MMA fans!  After putting on five events in July, UFC is rolling in a new month with another Pay-Per-View.  This one is somewhat of an oddity, for several reasons.  First, it’s the only UFC PPV to feature seven bouts on the main card.  The reason for deviating from the usual five fights on a PPV card are the two ‘TUF: Brazil’ finale fights, originally slated to take place at UFC Fight Night 70.  Besides the TUF bouts, this card features an interesting mix of the ‘old school’ nostalgia-type bouts, and the ‘new school’ WMMA.  I normally don’t valuate women’s bouts highly, however this will be the first time they are valuated on par (or higher) with the men’s fights on the same card.  This is partially caused by WMMA starting to grow on me as the UFC develops the women’s bantamweight and strawweight divisions.  Even though they are still very shallow and good matchups are hard to find, here we have two bouts that I consider interesting and relevant.

The flip side of the coin are the nostalgic matchups.  Despite an occasional exception, combat sports are no place for old men… or young men who absorbed so much damage over their fighting career that it makes me cringe watching them receive yet another traumatic brain injury.  There are a handful of such fighters on this card, and some of them are even fighting each other.  It comes to a point where watching these guys get their block knocked off is no longer enjoyable, and so a few of the fights on this card will receive a much lower valuation than you might expect.  I suppose this is a bit hypocritical of me to say as an MMA fan, especially as one who prefers finishes to decisions – perhaps I should just shut up and watch the fights, accepting TBIs to be the inevitable reality of a sport where people punch and kick each other in the head.  However, I am paying to watch these fights and here I am writing about it, and of course this is all based strictly on my personal, subjective opinion.  As always, your mileage may vary.

Main Event: (C) [#1 W135] Ronda Rousey vs [#13 W135] Bethe Correia for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Worth: $15

Why: The majority of the MMA world has already written off Bethe Correia as a legitimate challenger, looking past this fight to the inevitability of Rousey – Tate 3.  Ronda Rousey is anywhere between 10-1 and 15-1 betting favorite, and I don’t see Correia pulling off the huge upset here.  However, I think Bethe will last longer in the Octagon with Rousey than Ronda’s last three opponents combined. I expect that Correia will come into to the fight with some semblance of strategy besides rushing Rousey at the opening bell trying to land a hail-mary. Hopefully we will get to see Rousey showcase her cardio, striking, and perseverance – not another arm handed to her on a silver platter.

Fight: [#11 LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs [#16 LHW] Mauricio Rua

Worth: $5

Why: Their first fight in Pride FC almost ten years ago was an absolute classic, and a rematch makes sense from a pure nostalgia perspective, however the chance that it will live up to the expectations are slim to none.  Both fighters are shadows of their former selves, and I am not sure that either can take a punch at this point.  Actually, I’m fairly certain that Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua cannot, and he is at the point in his career where accumulating punishment will be severely detrimental to his long-term health.  We’ve seen the effects of cumulative TBIs in his older brother Murillo ‘Ninja’ Rua, and Shogun is clearly heading down the same path.   Though he is only 33, Shogun is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and was brutally knocked out in his two most recent outings.  A move to middleweight has been long rumored for Shogun, though I don’t think he will fare much better there.

As for his opponent, the 39-year-old Antonio Rogerio ‘Minotouro’ Nogueira seems to have held up much better with age than his fellow Pride veteran Rua.  But he has also been fighting very infrequently, his record since 2011 consisting of a uneventful decision win over Rashad Evans, and a 44 second TKO loss to Anthony Johnson.  It’s difficult to say how much he has left in the tank, but I can see him avenging his loss to Shogun and soldiering on, maybe fighting another couple of times in the next couple of years before retirement.  Either way, this is not a relevant fight in 2015, and I am really not looking forward to seeing Shogun separated from consciousness again.

 

Fight:  [#37 HW] Stefan Struve vs [NR] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Worth: $5

Why: Speaking of fighters I don’t want to see get knocked out again, that applies to both opponents in this fight – neither of whom has won a since 2012.  The sad thing is that Stefan Struve is the youngest heavyweight on the UFC roster at 27.  Despite his youth, he has been fighting professionally for over 10 years, and while he has a respectable 9-5 record in the UFC, all five of his losses were by a vicious knockout.  After getting his jaw smashed by Mark Hunt, Struve was forced to take time off from competing due to a heart issue.  He was eventually cleared to return to the sport, but a scheduled fight with Matt Mitrione fell through when Struve fainted in the locker room prior to the bout.  When he finally did make his UFC return, he was stopped in the first round by Alistair Overeem – it’s been a rough couple of years for Stefan, who was on a four win streak culminating with a TKO over the current top contender Stipe Miocic, prior to the Hunt fight. Considering his health issues and glass jaw, I don’t see a long term future for Struve in this sport.

Antonio Rodrigo ‘Minotauro’ Nogueira has not fared much better in recent years, coming off consecutive losses to Fabricio Werdum and Roy Nelson. Even in his prime, ‘Big Nog’ was known for absorbing a ton of punishment before usually locking on a fight-winning submission.  He entered the UFC far past prime, and though he managed to capture the Interim Heavyweight title and won a war with Randy Couture, his UFC career will be remember more for the savage beatings he took from Nelson, Cain Velasquez, and Frank Mir… not to mention severely mangled limbs courtesy of Mir and Werdum.  Antonio is not just a shell of his former self – he is a ghost.  Still, this is 2015, the year of the aging heavyweights’ resurgence, so I fully expect Nogueira to win somehow.  But my ideal outcome for this fight would be a three-round war with neither fighter getting finished or seriously injured, and both walking away from the sport after.

 

Fight:  [#61 FW] Fernando Bruno vs [#233 LW] Glaico Franca Moreira

Worth: $0

Why: The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil finals on a main card of a PPV?  No thank you.

 

Fight:  [#77 BW] Dileno Lopes vs [#36 FLW] Reginaldo Vieira

Worth: $0

Why:  See above. I might have given this fight a dollar just for having a Top 50 ranked fighter as a TUF finalist, but I took it back when I realized that Vieira is ranked at flyweight – the shallowest of all UFC men’s divisions – and is fighting at bantamweight here.  Though I do expect him to end back up at flyweight eventually, as fighters often accept a TUF slot at a weight class higher than they usually fight in, just to get their foot in the door.

 

Fight: [#11 HW] Antonio Silva vs [#32 HW] Soa Palelei

Worth: $5

Why: Yet another fighter on this card who should probably hang up the fingerless gloves, Antonio ‘BigFoot’ Silva is 0-1-3 in his last four fights, and was brutally knocked out in all three losses.  Silva was never really known for having an iron chin, but accumulated trauma, along with losing the ability to use testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) seem to have taken away what was left of it. Soa Palelei is not the greatest fighter in the world, but he is durable and a very heavy hitter, which means he is likely to find Silva’s off switch at some point during the three rounds.

 

Fight: [#2 W115] Jessica Aguilar vs [#5 W115] Claudia Gadelha

Worth: $10

Why: Exciting news for the women’s flyweight division: a legitimate #1 contender fight, with the winner to challenge Joanna ‘Champion’ Jedrzejczyk. Joanna and Gadelha had a very close fight last year, with Gadelha losing a split decision; after seeing Joanna win and defend the title in a dominant manner, I am very excited for the potential rematch, should Claudia win.  Her opponent Jessica Aguilar has not lost in five years, and has been the #1 ranked fighter in her division prior to Jedrzejczyk’s recent title defense.  No matter who wins this bout, the eventual title fight with Joanna should be epic.  I expect Gadelha to walk away with the victory here: in 2015 MMA landscape, in the men’s heavyweight division you can bet on the more experienced fighter, but in the women’s bouts, the younger lady usually wins.

Prelims (Fox Sports 1)

 

Fight:  [#8 WW] Demian Maia vs [#24 WW] Neil Magny

Worth: $10

Why: Even though this fight has potential to be a snoozer, it’s a very interesting matchup both stylistically and from the divisional picture perspective. Neil Magny has improved by leaps and bounds since his stint on TUF.  After starting his UFC career with a 1-2, Magny won seven consecutive fights, and finished four of his last five opponents.  Magny was brought up slowly and doesn’t have any big name wins on his record, so he is taking a huge step up in competition against the always dangerous Demian Maia, who is 5-2 since moving down to welterweight.  If Magny wins, he may become the first person in UFC history to win eight in a row and not get a title shot – a very likely possibility since Carlos Condit is already scheduled to challenge Robbie Lawler for the belt next, and both Johnny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley should be well ahead of Magny in the title picture even if he gets past Maia.

 

Fight: [#33 LHW] Rafael Cavalcante vs [#35 LHW] Patrick Cummins

Worth: $5

Why: This is a closely matched, middle of the road light heavyweight bout that could turn out to be either a quick KO win for Cavalcante, or a slow, grinding wrestlefuck decison win for Cummins.  I’m hoping for the former, as I don’t feel bad watching Cummins get knocked out quite yet.

 

Fight: [#17 BW] Iuri Alcantara vs [#44 BW] Leandro Issa

Worth: $1

Why: I am not particularly interested in this fight; Alcantara at this point isn’t looking like he will ever be a serious force in the division, and I haven’t seen enough of Issa’s fights to judge his potential.  But it is featuring two highly ranked bantamweights with winning UFC records, and the fragmented division can use all the help it could get.  I’ll give it a dollar and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $40
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $-19.99

Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $16
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $14

Event Net Value: $-5.99

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $79.92
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-14.42

PPV YTD Worth: $441
PPV YTD Cost: $539.91
PPV YTD Net Value: $-98.91

Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $400
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $80
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $320

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $165.00

Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $386.09

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