Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 70

UFC Fight Night 70: Machida vs Romero was originally supposed to take place in Brazil, as the finale of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Brazil’ Season 4.  For reasons unknown to me, the event was moved to US some weeks back, and a number of Brazilian fighters scheduled to fight were not able to secure their travel visas in time.   This really played havoc on the fight card – besides losing the ‘TUF’ finalists, the scheduled co-main event between Rick Story and Eric Silva has also been postponed, among with some other changes to the line up.  Fortunately, the main event of Lyoto Machida vs Yoel Romero remained intact, saving the card from being a total dud.

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Main Event: [#4 MW] Lyoto Machida  vs  [#9 MW] Yoel Romero

Worth: $20

Why: This is a great fight, with significant implications for both opponents as well as the divisional picture.  The 38-year-old former Olympian, Yoel ‘Soldier of God’ Romero rose quickly through the middleweight rankings after his UFC debut.  He has won all five of his UFC bouts, most recent being a somewhat controversial TKO victory over Tim Kennedy.  Besides his world-class wrestling credentials, Romero has very fluid striking and immense stopping power and generally prefers to keep the fight standing, which resulted in all but one of his wins ending in a T/KO.  Romero was twice slated to face off with Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza, but the fight fell through both times due to injuries.  He now takes on a very different breed of beast in Lyoto Machida, and a win here will put him very close to a shot at the title.

Former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida, though a year younger than his opponent, has had a much longer MMA career, and the wear and tear of it may be starting to take a toll on his body. Though he’s been fairly successful since dropping down to 185 lbs, Machida is 6-6 overall since suffering the first loss of his career in a rematch for the 205 lbs with Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua.  In his latest fight, Machida was absolutely decimated by Luke Rockhold; I was very surprised by how one-side the fight was, considering that Lyoto went the distance with the champion Chris Weidman, and was even somewhat competitive against former light heavyweight champ Jon Jones.  Perhaps he just had an off night, or a bad weight cut, or was suffering from an undisclosed injury.  Or maybe Rockhold is just that good.  However there’s always the possibility that Machida is nearing the end of his run as an elite fighter.  This is the quickest turn-around between fights in Lyoto’s UFC career – he is obviously in a rush to put the Rockhold loss behind him and get back on the winning track.

Stylistically, this is a interesting bout.  Romero’s striking based game plan and often porous defense could leave him susceptible to counter strikes, which are Machida’s bread and butter.  Yoel tends to be a slow starter and we’ve seen him get rocked early in several fights, only to be saved by his concrete chin and deep gas tank.  Machida has a clear advantage in striking technique, whereas Romero  has significantly greater power in his hands.  Romero has a wrestling advantage, but mainly uses the threat of takedowns to keep his opponents guessing and as an opportunity to land a fight-ending blow.  When he does score a takedown, he rarely keeps his opponent on the mat for an extended period of time, so I don’t expect the ground game to play a significant role in this fight.  I tend to avoid making predictions, but I’ll go out on a limb here and pick Romero by a late TKO, propelling him into the Top 5 and keeping his win streak alive.

Fight: [#26 WW] Lorenz Larkin vs [#36 WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio

Worth: $2.50

Why: Lorenz Larkin is a bit of an enigma.  He started out his career at 205 lbs and amassed a 12-0 record, before suffering a brutal beating at the hands of Muhammed Lawal in Strikeforce (later overturned to a NC due to a failed PED test by ‘King Mo’).  Larkin then dropped to middleweight, and defeated the current UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler in an uneventful decision. After the move to UFC, Lorenz went 1-4 in the middleweight decision and dropped down further to 170 lbs, knocking out John Howard in the first round and keeping his spot on the UFC roster safe for now.   No matter which weight class, he has been a very inconsistent fighter, and I’m still not sure that he has a future in the UFC.  However I was impressed by his welterweight debut – stopping ‘Doomsday’ is no easy task.  I’m curious to find out if Larkin finally found the right weight class and will be revitalized as a prospect, or if his last fight was more of an indication of Howard’s decline rather than Larkin’s improvement.  I haven’t seen much of his opponent, Santiago Ponzinibbio, but it’s a fairly close fight from the ranking perspective, and I’m hoping it will be more exciting than most of Larkin’s middleweight bouts were.

Fight: [#49 MW] Thiago Santos vs [NR] Steve Bosse

Worth: $2.50

Why: Canadian import Steve Bosse (pronounced Boss-eh!) is a former North American Hockey League enforcer with a penchant for brawling, who made a successful transition from fighting on ice to fighting in an MMA cage.  After amassing a 10-1 record with 9 stoppages, including wins over several UFC veterans, Bosse was supposed to make his Octagon debut last year – but decided to retire from the sport instead due to lingering injuries.  Apparently a year later Bosse has healed up enough to reconsider his retirement, and was supposed to step in as a late replacement for Quinton Jackson against Fabio Maldonado at UFC 186, when ‘Rampage’ was hit with an injunction due to a contractual dispute with Bellator.  Ultimately Jackson was allowed to fight at 186, and Bosse’s UFC debut has been postponed.  He’s now facing Thiago Santos – another light heavyweight striker with a 2-2 record in the UFC (both wins by TKO) and an overall 70% finish rate in all his wins.  Someone is going to sleep in this fight.

Fight: [#19 FW] Hacran Dias  vs [#45 FW] Levan Makashvili

Worth: $1

Why: I should probably care about this fight: a Top-20 featherweight taking on a highly touted prospect.  But I haven’t seen much of either guy’s fights, and based on records alone, a fighter who’s 2-2 in UFC with all 4 fights going to decision vs a fighter who scored a split over Mark Eddiva in his UFC debut just doesn’t do it for me.  I’ll give it a dollar anyway.

Prelims (Fox Sports 2)

Fight: [#83 WW] Alex Oliveira vs [NR] Joe Merritt

Worth: $2.50

Why: Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira is seemingly following the career plan of his American namesake Donald Cerrone: fight often, fight violently, take on all comers regardless of their ranking or name status, step up on short notice when needed, and kick ass.  This will be he second UFC fight in under a month, and his third in just over 90 days.  Alex has a very fan friendly style, and is also quite dangerous, as evidenced by his first round submission victory over KJ Noons.  He’s taking a huge step back here and fighting an opponent ranked outside the Top 500, and I am usually against such mismatches, but it’s understandable given the circumstances surrounding this card.  Oliveira should be able to add something to his highlight reel, and may be a prospect to watch for in the future.

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Event Worth: $28.50
Event Valuation: $5 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $23.50

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Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $274
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $61
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $213