Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC: Dana White’s Contender Series (08-09-2018)

Posted on August 8, 2018 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#55] Augusto Sakai (10-1-1) vs. [#106LHW] Marcos Conrado Jr. (5-0-0)

Last 3 Fights: Augusto Sakai (1-1-1)
2017-11-11: W vs. [#434HW+] Tiago Cardoso (7-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in of round 1
2017-05-19: L vs. [#14HW+] Cheick Kongo (28-10-2) via SD ()
2016-05-20: D vs. [#91HW+] Dan Charles (11-7-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Conrado Jr. (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [NA] Sumit Rangi (0-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in of round 0
2018-02-23: W vs. [#352LHW] Sandeep Kumar Dahiya (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:07 of round 1
2017-10-27: W vs. [#331HW+] Vinicius Lima (9-6-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Augusto Sakai (1528.22) [+166.49] – Win%: 68.15
Elo Favorite (Modified): Augusto Sakai (1608.65) [+177.65] – Win%: 68.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Augusto Sakai 271, Marcos Conrado Jr. 159
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#26] Marina Alcalde Rodriguez (9-0-0) vs. [#22AW] Maria de Oliveira Neta (10-3-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Alcalde Rodriguez (3-0-0)
2017-12-22: W vs. [#97FLY] Natalia Cristina Miranda (8-5-1) via UD ()
2017-12-10: W vs. [#86SW] Amanda Torres Sardinha (8-5-0) via UD ()
2017-04-28: W vs. [#112SW] Samara Santos Cunha (11-5-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Maria de Oliveira Neta (2-1-0)
2017-12-31: L vs. [#3AW] Kanna Asakura (13-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:40 of round 2
2017-10-15: W vs. [#36AW] Alyssa Garcia (3-5-0) via UD ()
2017-07-01: W vs. [NA] Laisa Coimbra (0-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:15 of round 2

Elo Favorite (Standard): Marina Alcalde Rodriguez (1488.90) [+215.88] – Win%: 72.83
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marina Alcalde Rodriguez (1503.32) [+266.93] – Win%: 76.29
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Alcalde Rodriguez 230, Maria de Oliveira Neta 221
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#132] Marcio Alexandre Jr. (16-4-0) vs. [#130LHW] Leonardo Silva de Oliveira (12-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Marcio Alexandre Jr. (2-1-0)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#301MW] Arymarcel Santos (40-35-0) via TKO in 2:49 of round 1
2017-08-12: L vs. [#146MW] Fabio Aguiar (11-1-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:03 of round 3
2017-03-18: W vs. [#322MW] Marcus Vinicius Fialho da (8-2-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Leonardo Silva de Oliveira (2-1-0)
2018-03-24: W vs. [NA] Luan Gabani (3-1-0) via TKO in 2:28 of round 2
2018-03-17: W vs. [#267MW] Cemey dos Santos (3-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2017-12-16: L vs. [#98LHW] Shamil Akhmedov (6-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 3

Elo Favorite (Standard): Marcio Alexandre Jr. (1483.03) [+57.34] – Win%: 56.51
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marcio Alexandre Jr. (1506.07) [+6.45] – Win%: 50.70
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcio Alexandre Jr. 110, Leonardo Silva de Oliveira 138
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC: Dana White’s Contender Series (08-07-2018)

Posted on August 5, 2018 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#228] Greg Hardy (1-0-0, -695) vs. [#291] Tebaris Gordon (3-0-0, +465)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (1-0-0)
2018-06-12: W vs. [#312HW+] Austen Lane (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:57 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tebaris Gordon (3-0-0)
2017-12-15: W vs. [#478HW+] Marvin Skipper (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2017-07-21: W vs. [#677HW+] Chandler Cole (3-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2016-05-20: W vs. [NA] Micah Barr (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:44 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 83.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tebaris Gordon (1244.17) [+99.45] – Win%: 61.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tebaris Gordon (1383.07) [+134.87] – Win%: 64.35
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 56, Tebaris Gordon 235
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#119] Kennedy Nzechukwu (5-0-0, -556) vs. [#174] Dennis Bryant (5-1-0, +394)

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (3-0-0)
2018-05-25: W vs. [NA] Corey Johnson (0-1-0) via TKO in of round 2
2018-03-10: W vs. [NA] Andre Kavanaugh (7-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2017-08-22: W vs. [#125LHW] Anton Berzin (5-2-0) via SD (29-27, 28-29, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Dennis Bryant (3-0-0)
2017-11-15: W vs. [NA] Onosai Moana (3-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2017-03-22: W vs. [#581MW] John Stern (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 2
2016-04-13: W vs. [#391LHW] Dillin Wiggins (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kennedy Nzechukwu – Win%: 80.72
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kennedy Nzechukwu (1336.51) [+74.84] – Win%: 58.47
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kennedy Nzechukwu (1396.52) [+124.70] – Win%: 63.32
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 74, Dennis Bryant 265
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#105] Joseph Lowry (8-0-0, -157) vs. [#198] Devonte Smith (7-1-0, +129)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Lowry (3-0-0)
2018-06-16: W vs. [#188LW] Zach Fears (9-3-0) via UD ()
2017-10-21: W vs. [#568LW] Richard Patishnock (7-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:53 of round 1
2017-05-20: W vs. [#516LW] Mike Pope (7-3-0) via TKO in of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Devonte Smith (3-0-0)
2018-03-03: W vs. [#431WW] Justin Edwards (9-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2017-11-18: W vs. [#933LW] Nick Gehrts (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:03 of round 4
2017-07-29: W vs. [#1452LW] Damonte Robinson (4-1-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:35 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joseph Lowry – Win%: 58.31
Elo Favorite (Standard): Joseph Lowry (1614.26) [+146.79] – Win%: 66.16
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joseph Lowry (1628.62) [+96.50] – Win%: 60.40
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Lowry 52, Devonte Smith 157
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 16th 2026: PFL Chicago: Carmouche vs. Bishop 2

[#6 W125] Liz Carmouche

[#14 W125] Jena Bishop

Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#16 W125] Viviane Araujo
Last 5: L W W W W

Last Fight Date: 6/27/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#37 W125] Ariane Lipski da Silva
Last 5: W W L W W

Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF New Years Eve Event

[#5 FW] Rajabali Shaidullaev

[#17 FW] Kyoma Akimoto

Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#7 FW] A.J. McKee
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 8/11/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#26 FW] Kleber Koike Erbst
Last 5: W W W W W

Saturday, November 14th 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Returns to Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy

[#6 HW] Vadim Nemkov

[#16 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy

Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 5/02/2026 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#20 HW] Renan Ferreira
Last 5: W W L W W

Featured Fighters

[NR]	Roberto Soldic	[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev
[#11 BW]	Payton Talbott	[#3 W125]	Natalia Silva
[#26 MW]	Roman Kopylov	[#81 MW]	Ateba Abega Gautier
[#65 LHW]	Karlos Vemola	[#10 BW]	Deiveson Figueiredo
[#64 MW]	Damian Pinas	[#44 LW]	Esteban Ribovics

Eccentric Aging - Aging and Caregiver Resources

All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (08-05-2018)

Posted on August 5, 2018 by Jason

Notable Info

Demetrious Johnson‘s #12 Absolute and #1 Flyweight rankings remain after his loss to Henry Cejudo. Meanwhile, Cejudo nearly doubled his All-Time Flyweight point total, moving him from #8 to #7 on the list, but remains a fair distance outside of the Top 100 Absolute.
T.J. Dillashaw strengthens his #2 Bantamweight position and is on the cusp of entering the Top 35 Absolute list, at #36. Cody Garbrandt wards off inactivity and gets a very small temporary boost in his All-Time ratings, but this acts simply as treading water. He still remains #7 at Bantamweight and just outside of the Top 100 Absolute.

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-05-2018)

Posted on August 5, 2018 by Jason

Elo Rating Updates

Posted on July 30, 2018 by Jason

We detailed our intentions to add some alternate rating systems for comparison in a previous post.

We got several comments and questions about this, with two common questions being:

1 – I thought the system in use was a version of Elo?

2 – What’s the point of adding alternate rating systems?

Addressing #1, the current rating system does share a few things with Elo, most notably, the core formula that manages the movement. However, it has also borrowed elements from the Glicko rating system and has tons and tons of additional code in place to make it better equipped for MMA, which is still a very disorganized and unpredictable sport, in terms of not only the matches but the matchmaking as well. Systems like Elo and Glicko were made for chess, a sport (game?) where competitors can play dozens of matches in a month where none of them get kicked in the head by their opponent.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 (08-04-2018)

Posted on July 29, 2018 by Jason

Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#3DD/#5P4P] T.J. Dillashaw (15-3-0, -120) vs. [#3] Cody Garbrandt (11-1-0, -104)
T.J. Dillashaw is the All-Time #2 ranked Bantamweight and #44 ranked Absolute fighter.
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #7 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: T.J. Dillashaw (3-0-0)
2017-11-04: W vs. [#3BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 2
2016-12-30: W vs. [#4BW] John Lineker (31-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2016-07-09: W vs. [#6BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (2-1-0)
2017-11-04: L vs. [#1BW/#3DD/#5P4P] T.J. Dillashaw (15-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 2
2016-12-30: W vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (22-2-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-47)
2016-08-20: W vs. [#77BW] Takeya Mizugaki (22-13-2) via TKO in 0:48 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): T.J. Dillashaw (2149.95) [+240.23] – Win%: 74.98
Elo Favorite (Modified): T.J. Dillashaw (2138.42) [+236.24] – Win%: 73.77
Days Since Last Pro Fight: T.J. Dillashaw 273, Cody Garbrandt 273
Previous Match-up Record: T.J. Dillashaw leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cody Garbrandt leads 1-0
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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Demetrious Johnson (27-2-1, -511) vs. [#2] Henry Cejudo (12-2-0, +373)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #1 ranked Flyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #8 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2017-10-07: W vs. [#7FLY] Ray Borg (11-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:15 of round 5
2017-04-15: W vs. [#15FLY] Wilson Reis (22-9-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:49 of round 3
2016-12-03: W vs. [#40BW] Tim Elliott (15-8-1) via UD (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (2-1-0)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#4FLY] Sergio Pettis (17-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-09-09: W vs. [#15FLY] Wilson Reis (22-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 2
2016-12-03: L vs. [#5FLY] Joseph Benavidez (25-5-0) via SD (29-27, 27-29, 30-26)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Demetrious Johnson (2214.44) [+317.05] – Win%: 80.98
Elo Favorite (Modified): Demetrious Johnson (2175.21) [+295.48] – Win%: 78.47
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 301, Henry Cejudo 245
Previous Match-up Record: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 4-2
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Featherweight (145)
[#15] Cub Swanson (25-9-0, +334) vs. [#17] Renato Carneiro (12-1-1, -436)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #14 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (1-2-0)
2018-04-21: L vs. [#4FW] Frankie Edgar (23-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-12-09: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Brian Ortega (14-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
2017-04-22: W vs. [#97FW] Artem Lobov (13-14-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (2-1-0)
2018-04-07: W vs. [#37FW] Calvin Kattar (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-07-29: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Brian Ortega (14-0-0) via SUB in 2:59 of round 3
2017-04-15: W vs. [#5FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-15-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Renato Carneiro (1882.25) [+20.79] – Win%: 52.37
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cub Swanson (1854.58) [+38.31] – Win%: 54.18
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 105, Renato Carneiro 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-29-2018)

Posted on July 29, 2018 by Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier

Posted on July 22, 2018 by Jason

Lightweight (156)
[#1/#7DD] Eddie Alvarez (29-5-0, 155.0lb, +140) vs. [#5] Dustin Poirier (23-5-0, 156.0lb, -167)
Eddie Alvarez is the All-Time #2 ranked Lightweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #38 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Alvarez (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#14LW] Justin Gaethje (18-2-0) via KO (Knee) in 3:59 of round 3
2017-05-13: NC vs. [#5LW] Dustin Poirier (23-5-0)
2016-11-12: L vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#14LW] Justin Gaethje (18-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 4
2017-11-11: W vs. [#6LW] Anthony Pettis (21-7-0) via Submission (Body Triangle) in 2:08 of round 3
2017-05-13: NC vs. [#1LW/#7DD] Eddie Alvarez (29-5-0)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Eddie Alvarez (2216.03) [+100.95] – Win%: 64.13
Elo Favorite (Modified): Eddie Alvarez (2110.13) [+54.37] – Win%: 57.76
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Eddie Alvarez 238, Dustin Poirier 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (146)
[#3] Jose Aldo (26-4-0, 146.0lb, +102) vs. [#5] Jeremy Stephens (28-14-0, 144.0lb, -125)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jeremy Stephens is the All-Time #16 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (1-2-0)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#4P4P] Max Holloway (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2017-06-03: L vs. [#1FW/#1DD/#4P4P] Max Holloway (19-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2016-07-09: W vs. [#4FW] Frankie Edgar (23-6-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (3-0-0)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#9FW] Josh Emmett (13-2-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2
2018-01-14: W vs. [#29FW] Doo Ho Choi (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:36 of round 2
2017-09-09: W vs. [#30FW] Gilbert Melendez (22-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Jose Aldo (2068.88) [+89.41] – Win%: 62.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jose Aldo (2056.90) [+59.46] – Win%: 58.48
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 238, Jeremy Stephens 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jose Aldo leads 4-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#3/#7DD/#7P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-2-0, 115.0lb, -297) vs. [#10] Tecia Torres (10-2-0, 115.0lb, +238)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1-2-0)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#1SW/#3DD/#2P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2017-11-04: L vs. [#1SW/#3DD/#2P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 1
2017-05-13: W vs. [#2SW/#6DD/#4P4P] Jessica Andrade (18-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Tecia Torres (2-1-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#2SW/#6DD/#4P4P] Jessica Andrade (18-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-82)
2017-12-02: W vs. [#18SW] Michelle Waterson (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-07-07: W vs. [#37SW] Juliana Lima (9-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:53 of round 2

Elo Favorite (Standard): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1681.00) [+153.27] – Win%: 70.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1685.25) [+130.62] – Win%: 67.96
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 112, Tecia Torres 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-22-2018)

Posted on July 22, 2018 by Jason

UFC on Fox 30: Preview & Predictions

Posted on July 21, 2018 by Oleg

It’s more than half way through 2018, and the UFC’s broadcast partnership with Fox network is quickly coming to an end. One could say that it was a rocky ride, and with UFC asking for more money while the TV ratings are steadily declining, continuing the relationship was not a winning proposition for Fox. And so in 2019, UFC will be moving on to ESPN as their new broadcast painter, while Fox will be picking up WWE for their brand of sports entertainment. So the UFC on Fox 30 will be one of, if not the last UFC event broadcast on ‘Big Fox’. To commemorate the approaching end of an era, I’ll do something I haven’t done in a while: a preview & predictions for the four fights on the main card.

[#1 LW] Eddie Alvarez vs [#5 LW] Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier is a -165 (3/5) favorite over Eddie Alvarez (+135; 4/3) in their rematch at UFC of Fox 30. This is tightly contested rematch and you can see which sports book offers the best odds before betting on this UFC Calgary event; take a look at the sportsbooks which are reviewed on mytopsportsbooks.com. While Alvarez is a former lightweight champ with a longer reach and better wrestling pedigree, Poirier was winning the first fight before illegal knees from Alvarez resulted in a no contest. Poirier had landed almost twice as many significant strikes through the first nine minutes (73-44) and was getting the better of the exchanges both in the clinch and from distance. The 29-year-old Poirier was also able to stifle three of four takedown attempts from the 34-year-old Alvarez.

Despite the betting odds and what the statistics of the first fight show, I’m going to go with the higher ranked fighter in Eddie Alvarez, mainly because I have more confidence in his durability and gas tank. Porrier has never seen a fifth round in his career, while Alvarez has had a couple of five rounders go the distance. Both men were knocked out by Conor McGregor; Porrier has also been stopped by Michael Johnson in 2016, while Eddie’s only T/KO loss besides McGregor was back in 2007. Porrier doesn’t have McGregor’s level of KO power and Alvarez was able to absorb plenty of punishment in their first meeting. And it seems unlikely that either man will be able to submit the other; so unless Dustin somehow manages to land a fight-ending bomb early, I see Alvarez weathering the storm and taking over later in the fight, eventually finishing Porrier in rounds four or five.

Prediction: Eddie Alvarez by TKO.

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