UFC on Fox / Odds vs. Ratings (Pre-Event)
You may have seen our previous articles of “Odds vs. Ratings” for UFC 152 and 153, that we created post-event. It basically compared the odds difference to the ratings difference to see what was “closer” to the actual result. This time, I thought we’d come out with it pre-event.
Either way, this is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up such as:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #4) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #4 and #5 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-3 that I listed above. I’ll leave #4 and #5 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Henderson vs. Diaz | Henderson (-156 / Small) | Henderson (1.88x / Large) | Henderson | |
| Gustafsson vs. Rua | Gustafsson (-224 / Moderate) | Rua (1.89x / Large) | Rua | #3 |
| Penn vs. Macdonald | Macdonald (-289 / Moderate) | Penn (1.13x / Pick’Em) | Penn | #2, #3 |
| Brown vs. Swick | Swick (-151 / Small) | Swick (1.09x / Pick’Em) | PASS | |
| Siver vs. Phan | Siver (-300 / Large) | Siver (2.89x / Huge) | Siver | |
| Easton vs. Assuncao | Easton (-223 / Moderate) | Assuncao (1.25x / Very Small) | Assuncao | |
| Albert vs. Jorgensen | Jorgensen (-248 / Moderate) | Jorgensen (3.01x / Huge) | Jorgensen | |
| Cruickshank vs. Martinez | Cruickshank (-134 / Very Small) | Cruickshank (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | |
| Proctor vs. Nijem | Nijem (-181 / Small) | Nijem (1.44x / Small) | PASS | |
| Stephens vs. Edwards | Stephens (-201 / Moderate) | Stephens (1.27x / Small) | Edwards |
1 – Inactivity
So, this ended up to be quite a boring one. No divisional moves, only one bout of recent inactivity (though I was close to noting it for Swick, even though he has had a fight since his inactive stint). Not only that, but the betting odds are awfully sound in comparison to the ratings.
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical, so neither fighter is a good bet.
The Siver, Means, Henderson and Jorgensen bets are marked because the ratings difference agrees with the odds, but to a larger degree.
This leaves four underdogs worth considering:
- Edwards vs. Stephens – This was very nearly a “PASS”, but the 1.27x rating difference suggests Stephens is closer to a -150 favorite, so this one may be worth looking at for a VERY small bet.
- Assuncao vs. Easton – The ratings favor Assuncao, but only slightly. Although still relatively new to 135, he has had two fairly decent wins. If he doesn’t look bad on the scales, this one is worth a shot.
- Penn vs. Macdonald – There’s a “gotcha” here — Penn’s inactivity. Still, with that considered, we find him a good bet. I won’t argue with Macdonald being a favorite, but nearly -300 is too much.
- Rua vs. Gustafsson – Having the reach advantage is something I did not mention as a “gotcha” only because we don’t actively track this. As in the Macdonald/Penn fight, Gustaf may have not reached his ceiling. Still, this is another case of the ratings disagreeing with the odds to a large extent.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Monday, May 4th 2026: Deep 131 Impact: 25th Anniversary | |||
 [#2 SW] Sora Sugiyama | [#14 SW] Sukai China | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/14/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Haruo Ochi Last 5: - - W W W | Last Fight Date: 3/08/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Saturday, May 2nd 2026: PFL Sioux Falls: Storley vs. Zendeli | |||
 [#13 HW] Renan Ferreira |  [#24 HW] Sergey Bilostenniy | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#5 HW] Vadim Nemkov Last 5: W W W L L | Last Fight Date: 8/21/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#53 HW] Karl Williams Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, April 25th 2026: OKTAGON 87: Szabová vs. Fernandes | |||
 [#16 W135] Lucia Szabova (-363) | [#26 W125] Leidiane Fernandes (+249) | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/09/2025 [Oktagon MMA] Last Opponent: [#96 W135] Cecilie Maria Bolander Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 10/25/2025 [Jungle Fight] Last Opponent: [#43 W125] Brena Cardozo Last 5: W W L W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#9 HW] |  Josh Hokit | [#7 FW] |  Rajabali Shaidullaev | |
| [#17 WW] |  Mike Malott | [#35 WW] | Gilbert Burns | |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#84 LW] | Gauge Young | |
| [#141 LW] | Mandel Nallo | [#16 BW] | Charles Jourdain | |
| [#73 LW] |  Jai Herbert | [#124 LW] |  Tom Nolan |
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fox 5 (12-08-2012)
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#7DD] Ben Henderson (17-2-0) vs. [#4] Nate Diaz (16-7-0)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2LW/#10DD] Frankie Edgar (14-3-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-11-12: W vs. [#14LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#17LW] Jim Miller (21-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#8LW] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-09-24: W vs. [#29LW] Takanori Gomi (34-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 119, Nate Diaz 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Henderson leads 4-2
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#5] Mauricio Rua (21-6-0) vs. [#9] Alexander Gustafsson (14-1-0)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #4 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#26LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3LHW] Dan Henderson (29-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#8LHW] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:53 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (3-0-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#38LHW] Thiago Silva (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#32LHW] Vladimir Matyushenko (26-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#20LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 126, Alexander Gustafsson 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] B.J. Penn (16-8-2) vs. [#14] Rory MacDonald (13-1-0)
B.J. Penn is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight and #6 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: B.J. Penn (1-1-1)
2011-10-29: L vs. [#5WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-02-27: D vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-11-20: W vs. [*] Matt Hughes (45-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#63WW] Che Mills (15-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#16WW] Mike Pyle (23-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1
2011-04-30: W vs. [#4LW] Nate Diaz (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: B.J. Penn 406, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 11 Review
In Episode 11, John Manley took home an uninspired majority decision win over his teammate Joey Rivera. In the remaining quarter-final bout, Mike Ricci dominated Mike Hill for a unanimous decision.
The final win tally is Team Carwin 5, Team Nelson 5 in head-to-head matchups. With the two semifinals bouts set up to be teammate-vs-teammate, the finals will serve as a tie-breaker. And with Matt Mitrione stepping up to fight Roy Nelson as a replacement for the injured Shane Carwin, the question remains if the coaches will face off somewhere down the line.
The semi-finals will air on the next week’s episode:
[#164 LW] Mike Ricci vs [#327 MW] Neil Magny
[#496 WW] John Manley vs [NR] Colton Smith
Here’s who remains:
Why Silva/GSP has to happen now and at what weight.
There is only one realistic argument against making this fight and it goes something like this:
George St. Pierre hasn’t cleaned out the Welterweight division
or
This fight will be a major set back for the Welterweight division
To conclude that there will always be a #1 contender in a division with two or more fighters, statistics are not needed. And while Hendricks is a valid #1 contender, Silva does not really have one. If we wait around until both divisions have no strong top contender, we will be waiting a while. And as you will read below, we cannot wait much longer.
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 10 Review
In Episode 10, Team Nelson took a win in the first quarter-final bout, as Colton Smith outgrappled and dominated Igor Araujo for a unanimous decision.
In the second quarter-final fight, two of Team Carwin fighters squared off, and Neil Magny came away the winner with another unanimous decision after two rounds.
This is another season of upsets, as the top 6 ranked fighters are already eliminated from the competition.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 4, Team Nelson 5 in head-to-head matchups.
Here’s who remains:
FightMatrix Program: UFC 154 (11-17-2012)
Welterweight Championship (170)
[*] Georges St. Pierre (22-2-0) vs. [#2] Carlos Condit (28-5-0)
Georges St. Pierre is the All-Time #1 ranked Welterweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Georges St. Pierre (3-0-0)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#10MW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2010-03-27: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (3-0-0)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#4WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#22WW] Dong Hyun Kim (16-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2010-10-16: W vs. [#34WW] Dan Hardy (25-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:27 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Georges St. Pierre 567, Carlos Condit 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Georges St. Pierre leads 3-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#1] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) vs. [#5] Johny Hendricks (13-1-0)
Martin Kampmann is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Martin Kampmann (3-0-0)
2012-06-01: W vs. [#6WW] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-03-03: W vs. [#31WW] Thiago Alves (19-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3
2011-11-19: W vs. [#30WW] Rick Story (14-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#8WW] Josh Koscheck (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#11WW] Jon Fitch (24-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#14WW] Mike Pierce (15-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Martin Kampmann 169, Johny Hendricks 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Martin Kampmann leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Francis Carmont (19-7-0) vs. [#48] Tom Lawlor (8-4-0)
Last 3 Fights: Francis Carmont (3-0-0)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#118MW] Karlos Vemola (9-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:39 of round 2
2012-04-14: W vs. [#173MW] Magnus Cedenblad (10-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:42 of round 2
2011-10-29: W vs. [#37MW] Chris Camozzi (18-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Tom Lawlor (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#102MW] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2011-11-19: L vs. [#3MW] Chris Weidman (9-0-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#85MW] Patrick Cote (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Carmont 129, Tom Lawlor 186
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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All-Time Welterweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
With the big Welterweight Championship fight approaching, I thought I would do a repeat of our Light Heavyweight analysis from yesterday, but for the Welterweight division.
The noise and fluctuations in this division are minimal in comparison. Furthermore, the gaps seen in this list between #2-#3, and #3-#4 are quite comical.
All-Time Light Heavyweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
Admittedly, I thought this graph was going to be much more interesting when I envisioned creating it, but perhaps that is because it was far more painful than I had envisioned and now I hate life a little more.
Anyway, I often receive questions about the career all-time rankings, specifically pertaining to the point totals. First, let me explain a few things:
The Ultimate Fighter 16, Episode 9 Review
In Episode 9, Mike Ricci defeated Dom Waters in a three-round unanimous decision, giving Team Carwin their fourth win and tying the tally at 4-4 in the first round bouts.
Quarter-Final matchups were announced, and two of them will be pitting teammates against each other:
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde vs [#327 MW] Neil Magny
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo vs [NR] Colton Smith
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera vs [#496 WW] John Manley
[#164 WW] Mike Ricci vs [#489 WW] Mike Hill
The current win tally is Team Carwin 4, Team Nelson 4 in head-to-head matchups.
Here’s who remains:
FightMatrix Program: UFC on Fuel (Franklin/Le): 2012-11-10
Middleweight (185)
[#10] Rich Franklin (29-6-0, 185.0lb) vs. [#46] Cung Le (8-2-0, 186.0lb)
Rich Franklin is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #25 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rich Franklin (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#26MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-02-05: L vs. [#8LHW] Forrest Griffin (19-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-06-12: W vs. [*] Chuck Liddell (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:55 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Cung Le (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#86MW] Patrick Cote (17-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-11-19: L vs. [#26MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2010-06-26: W vs. [#199MW] Scott Smith (17-10-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 1:46 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rich Franklin 140, Cung Le 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rich Franklin leads 2-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#29] Stanislav Nedkov (12-0-0, 203.0lb) vs. [#38] Thiago Silva (14-3-0, 205.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Stanislav Nedkov (3-0-0)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#115MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:20 of round 1
2010-05-21: W vs. [NA] Augustin Helgiu (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:14 of round 1
2009-11-07: W vs. [*] Kevin Randleman (17-16-0) via SD ()
Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2012-04-14: L vs. [#9LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (14-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-01-01: NC vs. [#26LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via NC (Overturned by NSAC) in 5:00 of round 3
2010-01-02: L vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stanislav Nedkov 441, Thiago Silva 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#33] Dong Hyun Kim (15-2-1, 170.5lb) vs. [#39] Paulo Thiago (14-4-0, 169.5lb)
Paulo Thiago is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dong Hyun Kim (1-2-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#7WW] Demian Maia (17-4-0) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 0:47 of round 1
2011-12-30: W vs. [#59WW] Sean Pierson (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-07-02: L vs. [#2WW] Carlos Condit (28-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Paulo Thiago (1-2-0)
2012-04-14: L vs. [#12WW] Siyar Bahadurzada (21-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:42 of round 1
2011-08-27: W vs. [#137WW] David Mitchell (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-10-23: L vs. [#15WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dong Hyun Kim 126, Paulo Thiago 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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