Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix & Sherdog (Man vs. Machine) Rankings Compared: Heavyweight

Posted on August 5, 2013 by Jason

Sherdog, one of the most, if not THE most respected MMA web site on the Internet has produced Top 10 rankings for quite sometime. I thought I would take a look at their latest Top 10s and compare the differences between the fights they rank and the ones we rank, including some commentary.

Heavyweight

Rank	Fight Matrix	Diff	Sherdog
1	Cain Velasquez	=	Cain Velasquez
2	Junior dos Santos	=	Junior dos Santos
3	Daniel Cormier	-1	Fabricio Werdum
4	Antonio Silva	-1	Daniel Cormier
5	Fabricio Werdum	+2	Antonio Silva
6	Alistair Overeem	=	Alistair Overeem
7	Frank Mir	=	Frank Mir
8	Mark Hunt	Next 5	Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
9	Josh Barnett	=	Josh Barnett
10	Stipe Miocic	=	Stipe Miocic
Next 5	Travis Browne Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Roy Nelson Stefan Struve Alexander Volkov		Travis Browne Gabriel Gonzaga Mark Hunt Roy Nelson Stefan Struve

The two rankings are eerily similar, with the first notable difference being Fabricio Werdum.

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Fighter Focus: Robert Neal (#86 HW – 2-0-0, 250lb)

Posted on August 5, 2013 by Jason

[#86 HW] Robert Neal (2-0-0)

28 years old, 6’0″ 250lb, Georgia, USA.
Both professional wins by (T)KO.
In only his 2nd professional fight, TKO’d [#113 HW] Mike Wessel in 13 seconds!

(The freeze-frame above shows Wessel, not Neal)

This early-career Heavyweight is looking for fights — he’s ready to put his undefeated record and Top 100 Fight Matrix ranking on the line.

If you are interesting in featuring Robert Neal on one of your contacts, please Email contact_group@fightmatrix.com and provide more details.

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2

[#4 LHW] Corey Anderson

[#10 LHW] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov

Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov
Last 5: NC L W W W

Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay
Last 5: W W W W W

Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2

[#9 LW] Usman Nurmagomedov (-164)

[#14 LW] Paul Hughes (+128)

Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes
Last 5: W W NC W W

Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda
Last 5: W W W L W

Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8

[#4 W105] Andressa Romero

[#20 W105] Claire Lopez

Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira
Last 5: W L L W L

Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC]
Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva
Last 5: W W L L L

Featured Fighters

[#3 FW]	Diego Lopes	[#19 FW]	Jean Silva
[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria	[#1 LW]	Islam Makhachev
[NR]	Matt Brown	[#4 LW]	Charles Oliveira
[NR]	Conor McGregor	[#90 WW]	Daniil Donchenko
[#1 MW]	Khamzat Chimaev	[NR]	Chris Lytle

Current MMA Rankings Updated (08-04-2013)

Posted on August 4, 2013 by Jason

UFC on 163: Ratings vs. Odds (08-03-2013)

Posted on August 2, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Marunde vs. Andrade	Andrade (-165 / Small)	Marunde (1.03x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Barroso vs. Oliveira	Oliveira (-133 / Very Small)	Barroso (1.03x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#1, #2
Yahya vs. Clopton	Yahya (-875 / Very Large)	Yahya (7.86x / Massive)	Yahya	#4
McCall vs. Santos	McCall (-370 / Large)	McCall (1.60x / Moderate)	PASS	#1, #4
Moraes vs. Magny	Moraes (-127 / Very Small)	Magny (1.33x / Small)	PASS	#4
Nunes vs. Gaff	Nunes (-331 / Large)	Gaff (1.04x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Magalhaes vs. Perosh	Magalhaes (-350 / Large)	Magalhaes (1.28x / Small)	PASS	#4
Lineker vs. Maria Tome	Lineker (-425 / Large)	Lineker (1.78x / Moderate)	Tome
Leites vs. Watson	Leites (-120 / Pick ‘Em)	Leites (1.13x / Very Small)	PASS	#4
Ferreira vs. Santos	Ferreira (-400 / Large)	Ferreira (1.97x / Large)	PASS
Machida vs. Davis	Machida (-340 / Large)	Machida (3.27x / Very Large)	Machida	#4
Aldo vs. Sung Jung	Aldo (-600 / Very Large)	Aldo (4.78x / Massive)	Aldo	#4

Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (08-03-2013)

Posted on July 29, 2013 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)

Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-28-2013)

Posted on July 28, 2013 by Jason

Spinanga

UFC on FOX 8: Ratings vs. Odds (07-27-2013)

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Albert vs. Meza	Albert (-230 / Moderate)	Meza (2.30x / Large)	PASS	#1
Riley vs. Salas	Salas (-220 / Moderate)	Salas (3.44x / Very Large)	PASS	#2
Herman vs. Smith	Herman (-235 / Moderate)	Herman (2.04x / Large)	Herman
Kedzie vs. de Randamie	de Randamie (-108 / Pick ‘Em)	de Randamie (1.45x / Moderate)	PASS	#1
Edwards vs. Cruickshank	Cruickshank (-125 / Very Small)	Edwards (1.77x / Moderate)	Edwards
Guillard vs. Danzig	Guillard (-115 / Pick ‘Em)	Guillard (1.21x / Very Small)	PASS
Castillo vs. Means	Castillo (-205 / Moderate)	Castillo (1.26x / Small)	Means
Masvidal vs. Chiesa	Masvidal (-270 / Moderate)	Masvidal (2.43x / Large)	PASS	#3
Carmouche vs. Andrade	Carmouche (-525 / Very Large)	Carmouche (1.15x / Very Small)	PASS	#3, #4
Lawler vs. Voelker	Lawler (-260 / Moderate)	Lawler (5.85x / Massive)	Lawler
MacDonald vs. Ellenberger	MacDonald (-220 / Moderate)	Ellenberger (1.44x / Small)	Ellenberger
Johnson vs. Moraga	Johnson (-450 / Large)	Johnson (2.41x / Large)	PASS

Recommended YouTube Viewing: “In the Car – UFC on Fox 8 Main Card Breakdown”

Posted on July 26, 2013 by Jason

One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!

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Fight Matrix Program: UFC 163 (07-27-2013)

Posted on July 24, 2013 by Jason

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-23-2013)

Posted on July 23, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

This is an intermediate update for testing purposes.

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Current MMA Rankings Updated (07-21-2013)

Posted on July 21, 2013 by Jason

Upcoming Division Dominance Change

Posted on July 18, 2013 by Jason

With the next rankings update, we will be making a slight tweak to our division dominance routine that will observe interference caused by division jumpers and help situations in which fighters gain most of their points in a strong division, then move to a weaker division — most recently seen at Women’s Featherweight with Marloes Coenen.

Hopefully, this will edge the methodology just a bit closer to a traditional “pound-for-pound” ranking, but it will remain unique in nature. Due to the strength of Men’s MMA across the board, this will have very little effect. However, the Women’s list will be moderately affected by this alteration.

Undefeated Winners’ Performance in Immediate Rematch / Winners’ Performance after KO

Posted on July 15, 2013 by Jason

I had every intent to create a blog entry, detailing the performance of undefeated winners in an immediate rematch.

However, in known professional MMA history, Chris Weidman will be the first undefeated fighter to give his opponent (Anderson Silva) an immediate rematch after winning the first match — unless it is beaten by a bout scheduled to take place prior to the rematch.

On another note, I found 303 immediate rematches in which the original fighter won by KO or TKO. In the rematches, the original winner was 191-105-5 (2 NC) — a win % of 63.5% (excluding the no contests).

Narrowing the target down to known Middleweight contests w/ an original finish of TKO or TKO, the original winner was 7-6-1 (50%)
Narrowing the target down to round 2 finishes KOs and TKOs, the original winner was 43-19-2 (67.2%).
Getting ultra-specific, there is only one known immediate rematch in which the original match took place at Middleweight with a round 2 KO/TKO finish, and the original winner (Roman Dosenko) lost.

MMA Rankings Updated (07-14-2013)

Posted on July 14, 2013 by Jason

Fight Matrix Program: InvictaFC 6 (07-13-2013)

Posted on July 13, 2013 by Jason

Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0, 145.0lb, +650) vs. [#2] Cristiane Justino (11-1-0, 144.9lb, -675)
Marloes Coenen is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marloes Coenen (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-04-28: W vs. [#7FW] Romy Ruyssen (5-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#6BW] Miesha Tate (13-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#8FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marloes Coenen 194, Cristiane Justino 99
Previous Match-up Record: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marloes Coenen leads 4-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD] Ayaka Hamasaki (9-0-0, 115.3lb, +144) vs. [#8] Claudia Gadelha (10-0-0, 114.5lb, -140)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#12SW] Emi Fujino (12-6-0) via UD ()
2012-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Lacey Schuckman (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3
2012-05-26: W vs. [#15SW] Yuka Tsuji (24-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (3-0-0)
2013-05-11: W vs. [#41SW] Herica Tiburcio (5-2-0) via UD ()
2012-09-21: W vs. [#54FLY] Adriana Vieira (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2012-04-20: W vs. [#31BW] Valerie Letourneau (4-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 210, Claudia Gadelha 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0, 134.8lb, -145) vs. [#11] Lauren Taylor (6-0-0, 134.8lb, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Sarah DAlelio (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#19BW] Amanda Nunes (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2012-10-06: L vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:37 of round 2
2012-07-28: W vs. [#3FLY] Vanessa Porto (15-6-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Taylor (3-0-0)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#25BW] Kaitlin Young (7-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-03-01: W vs. [NA] Jennifer Scott (2-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1
2011-10-28: W vs. [NA] Julia Griffin (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah DAlelio 189, Lauren Taylor 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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