MMA Statistics – Page 6

All-Time Greatest Bantamweights Through History

Posted on November 24, 2024 by Jason

This past week’s UFC main event was important for the Bantamweight division. What does the all-time picture look like as we walk through the history?

- This is entirely different than our All-Time Rankings, and much more simplistic. Fewer edge cases are handled here.
- Quarterly ranking data gathered from Generated Historical Rankings. Snapshots are made on the first of the quarter.
- 10 points assigned for #1 rank, 6 points for #2, 4 points for #3, 3 points for #4, 2 points for #5, 1 point for #6-10.
- Weak divisional depth penalty applied to above point totals where necessary.
- Fighter gets no points for the quarter if they did not win, draw, or have close loss (SD,MD) in the division in the previous 450 days.
- Fighter no longer accumulates points after retiring.
- Date format (lower right) is year_month.

All-Time Greatest Heavyweights Through History

Posted on November 22, 2024 by Jason

Dana… are you sure Stipe is the best of all-time?

This is entirely different than our All-Time Rankings, and much more simplistic. Fewer edge cases are handled here.
Quarterly Heavyweight ranking data gathered from Generated Historical Rankings. Snapshots are made on the first of the quarter.
10 points assigned for #1 rank, 6 points for #2, 4 points for #3, 3 points for #4, 2 points for #5, 1 point for #6-10.
Weak divisional depth penalty applied to above point totals, with a maximum penalty of 33.3%.
Fighter gets no points for the quarter if they did not win or draw in the division in the 450 days previous to beginning of the quarter.
Yes, there are many “open weight” fighters present in the early years.
Date format (lower right) is year_month.

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on November 21, 2024 by Jason

Been on a bit of a skid…. but here we go!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo (11-16-2024)

Posted on November 18, 2024 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1, +218) vs. [#5] Petr Yan (17-5-0, -272)
Petr Yan is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (3-0-0)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#9BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-02: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (1-2-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#12BW] Yadong Song (21-9-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [#1BW/#5DD/#6P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#2BW] Sean OMalley (18-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Petr Yan	-272		69.92%
Elo K170	Deiveson Figueiredo	2155.09	+147.41	70.03%
Elo Modified	Deiveson Figueiredo	2120.13	+51.29	57.33%
Glicko-1	Deiveson Figueiredo	2192.42	+59.95	58.54%
WHR	Deiveson Figueiredo	2017.27	+26.21	53.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Deiveson Figueiredo 112, Petr Yan 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#3/#9DD/#10P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-4-0, -201) vs. [#7] Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0, +165)

Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (25-3-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#11FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2022-10-01: W vs. [#6SW] Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47)

Last 3 Fights: Tabatha Ricci (2-1-0)
2024-08-24: W vs. [#11SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#5SW] Tecia Pennington (14-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-11-11: L vs. [#12SW] Lupita Godinez (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Xiaonan Yan	-201		63.89%
Elo K170	Xiaonan Yan	1767.49	+76.09	60.78%
Elo Modified	Xiaonan Yan	1758.65	+56.11	58.00%
Glicko-1	Xiaonan Yan	1720.49	+24.72	53.55%
WHR	Xiaonan Yan	1637.38	+36.91	55.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Xiaonan Yan 224, Tabatha Ricci 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#63] Mingyang Zhang (17-6-0, -316) vs. [#69] Osman Diaz (9-2-0, +245)

Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#105LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#121LHW] George Tokkos (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2021-04-30: W vs. [NA] Changsheng Huo (2-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Osman Diaz (2-1-0)
2024-05-17: W vs. [#213LHW] Bevon Lewis (7-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:24 of round 2
2024-03-08: W vs. [#90LHW] Chuck Campbell (7-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2022-07-26: L vs. [#21MW] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mingyang Zhang	-316		72.37%
Elo K170	Mingyang Zhang	1582.94	+100.61	64.09%
Elo Modified	Mingyang Zhang	1582.51	+74.07	60.50%
Glicko-1	Mingyang Zhang	1657.38	+104.18	64.56%
WHR	Osman Diaz	1604.80	+42.56	56.09%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mingyang Zhang 280, Osman Diaz 190
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Jason

Some interesting picks this week…

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic (11-16-2024)

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Jon Jones (27-1-0, -687) vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0, +465)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #31 ranked Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#3HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2020-02-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Dominick Reyes (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#34HW+] Thiago Santos (22-13-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#2HW+/#9P4P] Francis Ngannou (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-08-15: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-08-17: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jon Jones	-687		83.14%
Elo K170	Jon Jones	2462.88	+195.16	75.46%
Elo Modified	Jon Jones	2399.49	+154.72	70.90%
Glicko-1	Jon Jones	2500.75	+150.06	70.34%
WHR	Jon Jones	2262.89	+141.53	69.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 623, Stipe Miocic 1330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stipe Miocic leads 2-1
.

Lightweight (155)
[#3] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, -254) vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0, +205)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #36 ranked Absolute fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#12LW] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#107WW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Charles Oliveira	-254		68.63%
Elo K170	Charles Oliveira	2263.99	+192.02	75.13%
Elo Modified	Charles Oliveira	2274.77	+241.48	80.06%
Glicko-1	Charles Oliveira	2383.15	+289.98	84.15%
WHR	Charles Oliveira	2180.90	+312.77	85.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 217, Michael Chandler 735
Previous Match-up Record: Charles Oliveira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Oliveira leads 4-1
.

Middleweight (185)
[#23] Paul Craig (17-8-1, +672) vs. [#65] Bo Nickal (6-0-0, -1136)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-18: L vs. [#11MW] Brendan Allen (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#24MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#93MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#495WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#207MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Bo Nickal	-1136		87.65%
Elo K170	Paul Craig	1740.81	+161.64	71.72%
Elo Modified	Paul Craig	1762.82	+102.02	64.28%
Glicko-1	Paul Craig	1786.76	+177.19	73.50%
WHR	Paul Craig	1723.30	+224.91	78.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 196, Bo Nickal 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Jason

Last week was profitable again!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates (11-09-2024)

Posted on November 4, 2024 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#27] Neil Magny (29-12-0, +456) vs. [#45] Carlos Prates (20-6-0, -660)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #39 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#15WW] Michael Morales (17-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:39 of round 1
2024-01-20: W vs. [#81WW] Mike Malott (11-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-08-19: L vs. [#8WW] Ian Garry (15-0-0) via UD (30-26, 30-24, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-08-17: W vs. [#61WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#203WW] Charlie Radtke (9-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#157WW] Trevin Giles (16-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:03 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Prates	-660		82.83%
Elo K170	Carlos Prates	1897.23	+53.88	57.69%
Elo Modified	Carlos Prates	1909.10	+88.61	62.48%
Glicko-1	Carlos Prates	2006.91	+166.86	72.32%
WHR	Carlos Prates	1916.29	+180.82	73.90%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 77, Carlos Prates 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#30] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0, +112) vs. [#31] Miles Johns (16-2-0, -133)
Cody Garbrandt is the All-Time #13 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cody Garbrandt (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2023-12-16: W vs. [#309BW] Brian Kelleher (24-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:42 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#100BW] Trevin Jones (15-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Miles Johns (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#52BW] Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#46BW] Cody Gibson (21-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#203BW] Dan Argueta (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Miles Johns	-133		54.75%
Elo K170	Miles Johns	1857.19	+94.16	63.23%
Elo Modified	Miles Johns	1828.28	+78.08	61.05%
Glicko-1	Miles Johns	1852.41	+58.73	58.37%
WHR	Miles Johns	1791.94	+155.62	71.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Garbrandt 210, Miles Johns 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#17] Denise Gomes (9-3-0, -446) vs. [#31] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0, +327)

Last 3 Fights: Denise Gomes (2-1-0)
2024-06-08: W vs. [#44FLY] Eduarda Moura (10-1-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#10SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#42SW] Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8SW] Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#113SW] Diana Belbita (15-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#37SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Denise Gomes	-446		77.71%
Elo K170	Denise Gomes	1551.78	+92.85	63.05%
Elo Modified	Denise Gomes	1527.22	+62.90	58.96%
Glicko-1	Denise Gomes	1527.15	+96.54	63.54%
WHR	Denise Gomes	1496.94	+142.76	69.46%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Denise Gomes 154, Karolina Kowalkiewicz 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 31, 2024 by Jason

Both parlays hit last week!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi (11-02-2024)

Posted on October 28, 2024 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#3] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2, -159) vs. [*] Amir Albazi (17-1-0, +131)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Amir Albazi is the All-Time #42 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-01-21: W vs. [#4BW/#10P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Amir Albazi (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#4FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#49FLY] Alessandro Costa (14-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 3
2022-08-20: W vs. [*] Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brandon Moreno	-159		58.64%
Elo K170	Brandon Moreno	1898.72	+6.45	50.93%
Elo Modified	Brandon Moreno	1965.97	+147.38	70.02%
Glicko-1	Brandon Moreno	2075.69	+212.19	77.23%
WHR	Brandon Moreno	1986.22	+183.94	74.25%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 252, Amir Albazi 518
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-1
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#4] Rose Namajunas (13-6-0, +106) vs. [#5] Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0, -128)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #45 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (2-1-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#16FLY] Tracy Cortez (11-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2024-03-23: W vs. [#12FLY] Amanda Ribas (12-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (2-1-0)
2024-03-30: L vs. [#2FLY/#6DD/#4P4P] Manon Fiorot (12-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#6FLY] Taila Santos (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#10FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Erin Blanchfield	-128		53.63%
Elo K170	Rose Namajunas	1890.84	+90.95	62.80%
Elo Modified	Rose Namajunas	1850.87	+46.65	56.67%
Glicko-1	Rose Namajunas	1839.32	+3.74	50.54%
WHR	Rose Namajunas	1776.05	+55.17	57.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 112, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rose Namajunas leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#13] Derrick Lewis (28-12-0, +144) vs. [#56] Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0, -174)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #27 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#27HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3
2023-11-04: L vs. [#9HW+] Jailton Almeida (21-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#25HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#73HW+] Karl Williams (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#137HW+] Austen Lane (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#100HW+] Eduardo Neves (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jhonata Diniz	-174		60.77%
Elo K170	Derrick Lewis	1844.56	+230.49	79.03%
Elo Modified	Derrick Lewis	1848.44	+178.08	73.59%
Glicko-1	Derrick Lewis	1903.66	+234.52	79.42%
WHR	Derrick Lewis	1773.72	+215.45	77.56%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 175, Jhonata Diniz 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway (10-26-2024)

Posted on October 21, 2024 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#2DD/#9P4P] Ilia Topuria (15-0-0, -259) vs. [#2/#5DD] Max Holloway (26-7-0, +196)
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #3 ranked Featherweight and #8 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#3FW] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#10FW] Josh Emmett (19-4-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5
2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3
2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ilia Topuria	-259		68.10%
Elo K170	Max Holloway	2389.60	+186.18	74.49%
Elo Modified	Max Holloway	2334.27	+172.79	73.00%
Glicko-1	Max Holloway	2442.70	+198.75	75.84%
WHR	Ilia Topuria	2182.45	+12.38	51.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 252, Max Holloway 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Khamzat Chimaev (13-0-0, -221) vs. [#6] Robert Whittaker (26-7-0, +181)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2023-10-21: W vs. [#3WW] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
2022-09-10: W vs. [#17MW] Kevin Holland (26-12-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:13 of round 1
2022-04-09: W vs. [#10WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#42MW] Ikram Aliskerov (15-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:49 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#9MW] Paulo Costa (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1MW/#6DD/#3P4P] Dricus Du Plessis (22-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:23 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Khamzat Chimaev	-221		65.92%
Elo K170	Robert Whittaker	2209.78	+0.38	50.06%
Elo Modified	Robert Whittaker	2190.84	+12.69	51.83%
Glicko-1	Robert Whittaker	2273.79	+18.20	52.62%
WHR	Khamzat Chimaev	2062.13	+3.35	50.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khamzat Chimaev 371, Robert Whittaker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#18] Lerone Murphy (14-0-1, -206) vs. [#20] Dan Ige (18-8-0, +171)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#37FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#132FW] Joshua Culibao (12-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#71FW] Gabriel Santos (11-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: L vs. [#6FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-10: W vs. [#39FW] Andre Fili (24-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:43 of round 1
2023-09-23: L vs. [#19FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Lerone Murphy	-206		64.59%
Elo K170	Lerone Murphy	1980.63	+186.55	74.53%
Elo Modified	Lerone Murphy	1925.45	+152.96	70.69%
Glicko-1	Lerone Murphy	1953.50	+115.21	66.00%
WHR	Lerone Murphy	1879.30	+110.66	65.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lerone Murphy 161, Dan Ige 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on October 17, 2024 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

“The Underdog” bet/parlay

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez (10-19-2024)

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#17] Michel Pereira (32-11-0, +125) vs. [#25] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0, -152)

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#80MW] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#41MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-10-14: W vs. [#49MW] Andre Petroski (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#53MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#48MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-09-17: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Anthony Hernandez	-152		57.57%
Elo K170	Michel Pereira	2007.89	+128.77	67.73%
Elo Modified	Michel Pereira	1975.95	+71.18	60.10%
Glicko-1	Michel Pereira	2046.14	+87.61	62.35%
WHR	Anthony Hernandez	1906.78	+51.07	57.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 168, Anthony Hernandez 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#15] Kyler Phillips (12-2-0, -347) vs. [#16] Rob Font (20-8-0, +268)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#44BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [*] Marcelo Rojo (17-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:48 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#56BW] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kyler Phillips	-347		74.07%
Elo K170	Kyler Phillips	1860.64	+28.08	54.03%
Elo Modified	Kyler Phillips	1882.25	+86.67	62.22%
Glicko-1	Kyler Phillips	1954.83	+75.99	60.76%
WHR	Kyler Phillips	1866.25	+145.47	69.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyler Phillips 224, Rob Font 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kyler Phillips leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#15] Charles Johnson (16-6-0, -223) vs. [#258] Su Mudaerji (16-6-0, +182)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (3-0-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#32FLY] Joshua Van (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#110BW] Jake Hadley (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#79FLY] Azat Maksum (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#22FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Charles Johnson	-223		66.06%
Elo K170	Charles Johnson	1727.60	+338.88	87.55%
Elo Modified	Charles Johnson	1731.40	+327.51	86.82%
Glicko-1	Charles Johnson	1798.25	+406.55	91.22%
WHR	Charles Johnson	1634.06	+309.95	85.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Johnson 98, Su Mudaerji 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants (10-19-2024)

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[*] Francis Ngannou (17-3-0, -304) vs. [#10] Renan Ferreira (13-3-0, +227)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-03-27: W vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Renan Ferreira (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#14HW+] Ryan Bader (31-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1
2023-11-24: W vs. [#11HW+] Denis Goltsov (35-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-08-18: W vs. [#77HW+] Maurice Greene (11-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Francis Ngannou	-304		71.10%
Elo K170	Francis Ngannou	2348.99	+414.44	91.58%
Elo Modified	Francis Ngannou	2324.70	+383.08	90.07%
Glicko-1	Francis Ngannou	2461.72	+393.23	90.58%
WHR	Francis Ngannou	2176.44	+203.35	76.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 1001, Renan Ferreira 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#5P4P] Cristiane Justino (27-2-0, +101) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Larissa Pacheco (23-4-0, -127)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#5FW] Cat Zingano (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#4FW] Arlene Blencowe (16-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-11-12: W vs. [#15FW] Sinead Kavanagh (9-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (3-0-0)
2023-11-24: W vs. [#6FW] Marina Mokhnatkina (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-08-18: W vs. [#10FW] Olena Kolesnyk (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1
2023-06-16: W vs. [#25FW] Amber Leibrock (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Larissa Pacheco	-127		52.93%
Elo K170	Cristiane Justino	1963.55	+176.07	73.37%
Elo Modified	Cristiane Justino	1967.15	+155.03	70.94%
Glicko-1	Cristiane Justino	2042.11	+203.17	76.31%
WHR	Cristiane Justino	1987.08	+184.79	74.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 378, Larissa Pacheco 330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#7] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0, -597) vs. [#14] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0, +391)
Johnny Eblen is the All-Time #35 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eblen (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#10LHW] Impa Kasanganay (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#14MW] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-02-04: W vs. [#31MW] Anatoly Tokov (32-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Fabian Edwards (2-1-0)
2024-03-22: W vs. [#29MW] Aaron Jeffery (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#7MW] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-05-12: W vs. [*] Gegard Mousasi (49-9-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Johnny Eblen	-597		80.78%
Elo K170	Johnny Eblen	2138.82	+253.61	81.15%
Elo Modified	Johnny Eblen	2065.88	+186.25	74.50%
Glicko-1	Johnny Eblen	2146.28	+197.48	75.71%
WHR	Johnny Eblen	2005.68	+207.98	76.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Eblen 238, Fabian Edwards 211
Previous Match-up Record: Johnny Eblen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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