MMA Statistics – Page 6

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo (05-03-2025)

Posted on April 28, 2025 by Jason

Bantamweight (135)
[#7][#6UFC] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0, -462) vs. [#8][#7UFC] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4-1, +340)
Cory Sandhagen is the All-Time #18 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cory Sandhagen (2-1-0)
2024-08-03: L vs. [#4BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#13BW] Rob Font (22-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-03-25: W vs. [#11BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via SD (50-45, 49-46, 47-48)

Last 3 Fights: Deiveson Figueiredo (2-1-0)
2024-11-23: L vs. [#3BW] Petr Yan (18-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-08-03: W vs. [#11BW] Marlon Vera (24-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#34BW] Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Cory Sandhagen	-462		78.34%
Elo K170	Cory Sandhagen	2048.73	+12.57	51.81%
Elo Modified	Deiveson Figueiredo	2031.40	+16.09	52.31%
Glicko-1	Deiveson Figueiredo	2099.14	+23.45	53.37%
WHR	Deiveson Figueiredo	1947.32	+40.35	55.78%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Cory Sandhagen 33.0, Deiveson Figueiredo 37.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cory Sandhagen 273, Deiveson Figueiredo 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#20][#17UFC] Reinier de Ridder (19-2-0, +221) vs. [#25][#21UFC] Bo Nickal (7-0-0, -272)

Last 3 Fights: Reinier de Ridder (3-0-0)
2025-01-18: W vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (27-13-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 1
2024-11-09: W vs. [#54MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-19-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:44 of round 3
2024-07-27: W vs. [#200LHW] Magomedmurad Khasaev (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#33MW] Paul Craig (17-9-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#92MW] Cody Brundage (11-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#323MW] Valentine Woodburn (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Bo Nickal	-272		70.12%
Elo K170	Reinier de Ridder	1942.11	+242.92	80.19%
Elo Modified	Reinier de Ridder	1965.26	+206.16	76.62%
Glicko-1	Reinier de Ridder	2037.99	+310.16	85.64%
WHR	Reinier de Ridder	1929.73	+285.60	83.81%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Reinier de Ridder 34.6, Bo Nickal 29.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Reinier de Ridder 105, Bo Nickal 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#32][#24UFC] Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0, +103) vs. [#35][#26UFC] Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0, -125)

Last 3 Fights: Santiago Ponzinibbio (1-2-0)
2025-01-11: W vs. [#71WW] Carlston Harris (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:13 of round 3
2024-07-13: L vs. [#31WW] Muslim Salikhov (21-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#21WW] Kevin Holland (27-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:16 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#53WW] Alex Morono (24-12-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#17MW] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-05-13: L vs. [#7WW] Ian Garry (16-1-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Daniel Rodriguez	-125		53.00%
Elo K170	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1790.35	+11.83	51.70%
Elo Modified	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1873.46	+139.61	69.08%
Glicko-1	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1943.42	+208.84	76.89%
WHR	Santiago Ponzinibbio	1789.97	+170.53	72.74%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Santiago Ponzinibbio 38.6, Daniel Rodriguez 38.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Santiago Ponzinibbio 112, Daniel Rodriguez 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 24, 2025 by Jason

We have a pretty crazy dog parlay this week. Time to get rich!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Garry vs Prates (04-26-2025)

Posted on April 21, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#7][#7UFC] Ian Garry (15-1-0, -128) vs. [#21][#18UFC] Carlos Prates (21-6-0, +108)
Ian Garry is the All-Time #47 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ian Garry (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#4WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (19-0-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#16MW] Michael Page (23-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#11WW] Geoff Neal (16-6-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Prates (3-0-0)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#30WW] Neil Magny (29-13-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:50 of round 1
2024-08-17: W vs. [#61WW] Jingliang Li (19-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:02 of round 2
2024-06-08: W vs. [#79WW] Charlie Radtke (10-4-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:47 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Ian Garry	-128		53.86%
Elo K170	Ian Garry	2081.70	+112.46	65.64%
Elo Modified	Ian Garry	2024.92	+57.76	58.24%
Glicko-1	Carlos Prates	2065.62	+1.61	50.23%
WHR	Ian Garry	1985.17	+19.55	52.81%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ian Garry 27.4, Carlos Prates 31.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ian Garry 140, Carlos Prates 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#15][#12UFC] Anthony Smith (38-21-0, +348) vs. [#40][#26UFC] Mingyang Zhang (18-6-0, -472)
Anthony Smith is the All-Time #32 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (1-2-0)
2024-12-07: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (15-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:46 of round 2
2024-06-29: L vs. [#9MW] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#32LHW] Vitor Petrino (11-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mingyang Zhang (3-0-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#108MW] Osman Diaz (10-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:25 of round 1
2024-02-17: W vs. [#57LHW] Brendson Ribeiro (17-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1
2022-06-09: W vs. [#147LHW] George Tokkos (10-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mingyang Zhang	-472		78.71%
Elo K170	Anthony Smith	1690.23	+47.58	56.81%
Elo Modified	Anthony Smith	1701.29	+74.23	60.52%
Glicko-1	Anthony Smith	1731.85	+3.29	50.47%
WHR	Mingyang Zhang	1688.21	+7.91	51.14%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Anthony Smith 36.7, Mingyang Zhang 26.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 140, Mingyang Zhang 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#16][#14UFC] Giga Chikadze (15-4-0, +148) vs. [#53][#34UFC] David Onama (13-2-0, -176)

Last 3 Fights: Giga Chikadze (1-2-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#7FW] Arnold Allen (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#45FW] Alex Caceres (21-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-01-15: L vs. [#21FW] Calvin Kattar (23-9-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: David Onama (3-0-0)
2024-11-16: W vs. [#383FW] Roberto Romero (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#81FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-24: W vs. [#62FW] Gabriel Santos (12-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	David Onama	-176		61.26%
Elo K170	Giga Chikadze	1852.89	+98.51	63.81%
Elo Modified	Giga Chikadze	1830.57	+45.40	56.50%
Glicko-1	Giga Chikadze	1880.41	+49.14	57.03%
WHR	Giga Chikadze	1762.08	+7.22	51.04%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Giga Chikadze 36.6, David Onama 30.9
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Giga Chikadze 273, David Onama 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 10, 2025 by Jason

Both parlays in the green for the year.. let’s see if we can keep this going!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes (04-12-2025)

Posted on April 7, 2025 by Jason

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2][#2UFC] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0, -147) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Diego Lopes (26-6-0, +123)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (1-2-0)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#1FW][#1DD][#5P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2
2023-10-21: L vs. [#1LW][#2DD][#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (27-1-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:06 of round 1
2023-07-08: W vs. [#8FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:19 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (3-0-0)
2024-09-14: W vs. [#7FW] Brian Ortega (16-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#86FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:29 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Alexander Volkanovski	-147		57.02%
Elo K170	Alexander Volkanovski	2183.05	+119.20	66.51%
Elo Modified	Alexander Volkanovski	2141.50	+92.43	63.00%
Glicko-1	Alexander Volkanovski	2192.63	+71.19	60.10%
WHR	Alexander Volkanovski	2122.76	+174.10	73.15%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alexander Volkanovski 36.5, Diego Lopes 30.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 420, Diego Lopes 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#11][#10UFC] Michael Chandler (23-9-0, +132) vs. [#17][#13UFC] Paddy Pimblett (22-3-0, -158)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2024-11-16: L vs. [#3LW] Charles Oliveira (35-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Paddy Pimblett (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#41LW] Bobby Green (32-17-1) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2023-12-16: W vs. [#109LW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: W vs. [#53LW] Jared Gordon (20-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Paddy Pimblett	-158		58.69%
Elo K170	Michael Chandler	2029.67	+21.86	53.14%
Elo Modified	Michael Chandler	2002.44	+18.20	52.62%
Glicko-1	Michael Chandler	2069.17	+13.77	51.98%
WHR	Paddy Pimblett	1964.27	+108.81	65.17%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Michael Chandler 38.9, Paddy Pimblett 30.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chandler 147, Paddy Pimblett 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#19][#13UFC] Bryce Mitchell (17-2-0, +261) vs. [#26][#17UFC] Jean Silva (15-2-0, -337)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (2-1-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#519FW] Kron Gracie (5-3-0) via KO (Slam and Elbows) in 0:39 of round 3
2023-12-16: L vs. [#12FW] Josh Emmett (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#22FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jean Silva (3-0-0)
2025-02-22: W vs. [#267FW] Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:15 of round 1
2024-07-13: W vs. [#69LW] Drew Dober (27-15-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-06-29: W vs. [#29BW] Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:22 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jean Silva	-337		73.57%
Elo K170	Bryce Mitchell	1864.26	+23.02	53.31%
Elo Modified	Bryce Mitchell	1863.71	+6.71	50.97%
Glicko-1	Jean Silva	1929.13	+57.06	58.14%
WHR	Jean Silva	1894.00	+101.27	64.18%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bryce Mitchell 30.5, Jean Silva 28.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 126, Jean Silva 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-06-2025)

Posted on April 6, 2025 by Jason

This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on April 3, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Murphy (04-05-2025)

Posted on March 31, 2025 by Jason

Featherweight (145)
[*] Josh Emmett (19-4-0, +253) vs. [#11][#9UFC] Lerone Murphy (15-0-1, -325)
Josh Emmett is the All-Time #24 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#18FW] Bryce Mitchell (17-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:57 of round 1
2023-06-24: L vs. [#1FW][#1DD][#5P4P] Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) via UD (49-45, 50-44, 50-42)
2023-02-11: L vs. [#8FW] Yair Rodriguez (19-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2024-10-26: W vs. [#21FW] Dan Ige (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-05-18: W vs. [#40FW] Edson Barboza (24-12-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#132FW] Joshua Culibao (12-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Lerone Murphy	-325		72.96%
Elo K170	Lerone Murphy	2023.98	+5.24	50.75%
Elo Modified	Josh Emmett	1973.98	+3.02	50.44%
Glicko-1	Josh Emmett	2006.23	+4.50	50.65%
WHR	Lerone Murphy	1904.33	+51.21	57.32%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Josh Emmett 40.1, Lerone Murphy 33.7
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 476, Lerone Murphy 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#32][#21UFC] Joanderson Brito (17-4-1, -217) vs. [#48][#30UFC] Pat Sabatini (19-5-0, +176)

Last 3 Fights: Joanderson Brito (2-1-0)
2024-09-28: L vs. [#38FW] William Gomis (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#72FW] Jack Shore (17-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:35 of round 2
2023-11-18: W vs. [#79FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via Submission (Ninja Choke) in 3:54 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Pat Sabatini (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#79FW] Jonathan Pearce (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:06 of round 1
2023-11-11: L vs. [#5FW] Diego Lopes (26-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#143FW] Lucas Almeida (15-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:48 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joanderson Brito	-217		65.38%
Elo K170	Joanderson Brito	1813.40	+79.91	61.30%
Elo Modified	Joanderson Brito	1854.18	+88.94	62.53%
Glicko-1	Joanderson Brito	1925.28	+107.78	65.03%
WHR	Joanderson Brito	1803.72	+69.48	59.87%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Joanderson Brito 30.1, Pat Sabatini 34.4
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanderson Brito 189, Pat Sabatini 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanderson Brito leads 3-1
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Bantamweight (135)
[#114][#53UFC] Chang Ho Lee (10-1-0, -178) vs. [#323][#77UFC] Cortavious Romious (9-3-0, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Chang Ho Lee (3-0-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#115BW] Long Xiao (26-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-27: W vs. [#377FW] Zhawupasi Daermisi (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:35 of round 3
2023-05-28: W vs. [#1339FW] Rana Rudra Pratap Singh (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Cortavious Romious (2-1-0)
2024-11-09: L vs. [#227BW] Gaston Bolanos (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2024-08-20: W vs. [#289BW] Michael Imperato (12-7-0) via UD ()
2024-04-20: W vs. [NA] Erik Vo (15-34-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:50 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Chang Ho Lee	-178		61.16%
Elo K170	Chang Ho Lee	1622.74	+357.78	88.69%
Elo Modified	Chang Ho Lee	1572.40	+229.09	78.90%
Glicko-1	Chang Ho Lee	1576.86	+256.23	81.38%
WHR	Chang Ho Lee	1549.59	+264.76	82.12%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Chang Ho Lee 30.9, Cortavious Romious 31.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chang Ho Lee 287, Cortavious Romious 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 27, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg (03-29-2025)

Posted on March 24, 2025 by Jason

Flyweight (125)
[#3][#8DD][#3UFC] Brandon Moreno (22-8-2, -201) vs. [#10][#8UFC] Steve Erceg (12-3-0, +166)
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #3 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (1-2-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#9FLY] Amir Albazi (17-2-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2024-02-24: L vs. [#2FLY][#7DD] Brandon Royval (17-7-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-07-08: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Erceg (1-2-0)
2024-08-17: L vs. [#5FLY] Kai Kara-France (25-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:04 of round 1
2024-05-04: L vs. [#1FLY][#5DD][#3P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (29-5-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#86FLY] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:26 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Brandon Moreno	-201		63.98%
Elo K170	Brandon Moreno	1982.13	+318.02	86.18%
Elo Modified	Brandon Moreno	2012.46	+349.29	88.19%
Glicko-1	Brandon Moreno	2112.16	+429.12	92.20%
WHR	Brandon Moreno	2020.54	+356.65	88.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Brandon Moreno 31.3, Steve Erceg 29.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Moreno 147, Steve Erceg 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Brandon Moreno leads 2-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#53][#29UFC] Drew Dober (27-14-0, +104) vs. [#125][#53UFC] Manuel Torres (15-3-0, -125)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (1-2-0)
2024-07-13: L vs. [#24FW] Jean Silva (15-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:28 of round 3
2024-02-03: L vs. [#9LW] Renato Carneiro (20-6-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#299LW] Ricky Glenn (22-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Manuel Torres (2-1-0)
2024-09-14: L vs. [#18LW] Ignacio Bahamondes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 1
2024-02-24: W vs. [#126LW] Chris Duncan (13-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 1
2023-06-17: W vs. [#122LW] Nikolas Motta (15-5-0) via KO (Elbow) in 1:50 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Manuel Torres	-125		53.12%
Elo K170	Drew Dober	1664.32	+10.78	51.55%
Elo Modified	Drew Dober	1663.93	+16.93	52.43%
Glicko-1	Drew Dober	1717.82	+26.81	53.85%
WHR	Drew Dober	1705.58	+20.44	52.94%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Drew Dober 36.4, Manuel Torres 30.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 259, Manuel Torres 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#17][#15UFC] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0, +268) vs. [#23][#19UFC] Joe Pyfer (13-3-0, -344)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #29 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2024-06-22: W vs. [#37WW] Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#2WW][#10P4P] Sean Brady (18-1-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#24MW] Chris Curtis (31-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Pyfer (2-1-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#59MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:25 of round 1
2024-02-10: L vs. [#19MW] Jack Hermansson (24-8-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#109MW] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-7-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:05 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joe Pyfer	-344		74.03%
Elo K170	Kelvin Gastelum	1926.26	+200.23	76.00%
Elo Modified	Kelvin Gastelum	1918.73	+162.04	71.76%
Glicko-1	Kelvin Gastelum	1963.95	+109.73	65.29%
WHR	Kelvin Gastelum	1832.08	+89.87	62.65%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kelvin Gastelum 33.4, Joe Pyfer 28.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 280, Joe Pyfer 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 20, 2025 by Jason

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Brady (03-22-2025)

Posted on March 17, 2025 by Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#2][#7DD][#10P4P][#2UFC] Leon Edwards (22-4-0, +122) vs. [#5][#5UFC] Sean Brady (17-1-0, -146)
Leon Edwards is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight and #31 ranked Absolute fighter.
Sean Brady is the All-Time #42 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Leon Edwards (2-1-0)
2024-07-27: L vs. [#1WW][#6DD][#7P4P] Belal Muhammad (24-3-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#8WW] Colby Covington (17-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-03-18: W vs. [*] Kamaru Usman (20-4-0) via MD (48-46, 48-46, 47-47)

Last 3 Fights: Sean Brady (2-1-0)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#9WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)
2023-12-02: W vs. [#17MW] Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 1:43 of round 3
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1WW][#6DD][#7P4P] Belal Muhammad (24-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:47 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Sean Brady	-146		56.84%
Elo K170	Leon Edwards	2392.96	+237.48	79.69%
Elo Modified	Leon Edwards	2324.27	+207.69	76.78%
Glicko-1	Leon Edwards	2374.73	+201.45	76.13%
WHR	Leon Edwards	2105.13	+83.24	61.76%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Leon Edwards 33.6, Sean Brady 32.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Leon Edwards 238, Sean Brady 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[*] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1, +199) vs. [#10][#7UFC] Carlos Ulberg (12-1-0, -243)
Jan Blachowicz is the All-Time #10 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (1-1-1)
2023-07-29: L vs. [#2LHW] Alex Pereira (12-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-12-10: D vs. [#1LHW][#6P4P] Magomed Ankalaev (21-1-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 5
2022-05-14: W vs. [#21LHW] Aleksandar Rakic (14-5-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 1:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2024-11-23: W vs. [#11LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#23LHW] Alonzo Menifield (16-5-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2023-09-09: W vs. [#90LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-6-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Ulberg	-243		67.93%
Elo K170	Jan Blachowicz	2056.71	+103.47	64.47%
Elo Modified	Jan Blachowicz	2123.58	+165.15	72.12%
Glicko-1	Jan Blachowicz	2218.42	+217.42	77.75%
WHR	Jan Blachowicz	2026.68	+94.14	63.23%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Jan Blachowicz 42.1, Carlos Ulberg 34.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jan Blachowicz 602, Carlos Ulberg 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#27][#21UFC] Kevin Holland (26-13-0, +119) vs. [*] Gunnar Nelson (19-5-1, -143)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2025-01-18: L vs. [#20MW] Reinier de Ridder (19-2-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:31 of round 1
2024-10-05: L vs. [#9MW] Roman Dolidze (15-3-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2024-06-01: W vs. [#51MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 1:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gunnar Nelson (2-1-0)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#105MW] Bryan Barberena (18-12-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:51 of round 1
2022-03-19: W vs. [#430WW] Takashi Sato (16-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#9WW] Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Gunnar Nelson	-143		56.31%
Elo K170	Gunnar Nelson	1923.36	+191.41	75.06%
Elo Modified	Gunnar Nelson	1945.14	+189.29	74.83%
Glicko-1	Gunnar Nelson	2019.31	+182.81	74.12%
WHR	Gunnar Nelson	1906.38	+141.71	69.33%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Kevin Holland 32.4, Gunnar Nelson 36.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 63, Gunnar Nelson 735
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kevin Holland leads 2-1
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (03-16-2025)

Posted on March 16, 2025 by Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze (03-15-2025)

Posted on March 10, 2025 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#11][#10UFC] Roman Dolidze (14-3-0, +135) vs. [*] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1, -162)
Marvin Vettori is the All-Time #44 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (2-1-0)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#27WW] Kevin Holland (26-13-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2024-06-29: W vs. [#15LHW] Anthony Smith (38-21-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: L vs. [#3MW] Nassourdine Imavov (16-4-0) via MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46)

Last 3 Fights: Marvin Vettori (1-2-0)
2023-06-17: L vs. [#9MW] Jared Cannonier (18-8-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#11MW] Roman Dolidze (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-03: L vs. [#7MW] Robert Whittaker (26-8-0) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Marvin Vettori	-162		59.23%
Elo K170	Marvin Vettori	2009.39	+57.86	58.25%
Elo Modified	Marvin Vettori	1985.59	+20.87	53.00%
Glicko-1	Marvin Vettori	2053.34	+4.01	50.58%
WHR	Roman Dolidze	1907.49	+23.92	53.44%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Roman Dolidze 36.6, Marvin Vettori 31.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 161, Marvin Vettori 637
Previous Match-up Record: Marvin Vettori leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#47][#31UFC] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-8-1, -186) vs. [#54][#36UFC] Chidi Njokuani (24-10-0, +154)

Last 3 Fights: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (1-1-1)
2024-11-09: W vs. [#296WW] Zach Scroggin (7-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:15 of round 1
2024-06-01: L vs. [#26WW] Randy Brown (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-11-04: D vs. [#18WW] Rinat Fakhretdinov (25-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chidi Njokuani (2-1-0)
2024-10-12: W vs. [#87WW] Jared Gooden (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#127WW] Rhys McKee (13-6-1) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-08-26: L vs. [#48MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:16 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	-186		62.28%
Elo K170	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	1844.67	+114.94	65.96%
Elo Modified	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	1838.39	+95.93	63.46%
Glicko-1	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	1888.49	+118.79	66.46%
WHR	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	1808.24	+131.27	68.04%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 38.3, Chidi Njokuani 36.2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 126, Chidi Njokuani 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#57] Diyar Nurgozhay (10-0-0, -346) vs. [#104][#35UFC] Brendson Ribeiro (16-7-0, +270)

Last 3 Fights: Diyar Nurgozhay (3-0-0)
2024-10-01: W vs. [#133LHW] Bartosz Szewczyk (8-4-1) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:32 of round 2
2024-05-18: W vs. [#85LHW] Emiliano Sordi (26-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1
2022-08-21: W vs. [*] Konstantin Andreitsev (19-17-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Brendson Ribeiro (1-2-0)
2024-11-02: W vs. [#149LHW] Caio Machado (8-4-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-06-22: L vs. [#113LHW] Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-1-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2024-02-17: L vs. [#45LHW] Mingyang Zhang (18-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:41 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Diyar Nurgozhay	-346		74.16%
Elo K170	Diyar Nurgozhay	1628.60	+185.41	74.41%
Elo Modified	Diyar Nurgozhay	1664.08	+229.62	78.95%
Glicko-1	Diyar Nurgozhay	1692.56	+218.75	77.89%
WHR	Diyar Nurgozhay	1685.27	+213.68	77.38%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Diyar Nurgozhay 27.9, Brendson Ribeiro 28.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diyar Nurgozhay 165, Brendson Ribeiro 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
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This Week’s WHR Bets/Parlays

Posted on March 6, 2025 by Jason

The huge Underdog parlay hit last week! Let’s try again!!

Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

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