Amassing a record of 4-0 in the 2012 calendar year, (#9 W115) Joanne Calderwood is our 2012 Female Rookie of the Year
FightMatrix 2012 Awards: Comeback Fighter of the Year – Georges St. Pierre
We’re starting to release our yearly awards and there’s not really much to add to this subject line. You have to give it to GSP for coming back from a torn ACL to dominantly defending his Welterweight Championship.
Why Silva/GSP has to happen now and at what weight.
There is only one realistic argument against making this fight and it goes something like this:
George St. Pierre hasn’t cleaned out the Welterweight division
or
This fight will be a major set back for the Welterweight division
To conclude that there will always be a #1 contender in a division with two or more fighters, statistics are not needed. And while Hendricks is a valid #1 contender, Silva does not really have one. If we wait around until both divisions have no strong top contender, we will be waiting a while. And as you will read below, we cannot wait much longer.
All-Time Welterweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
With the big Welterweight Championship fight approaching, I thought I would do a repeat of our Light Heavyweight analysis from yesterday, but for the Welterweight division.
The noise and fluctuations in this division are minimal in comparison. Furthermore, the gaps seen in this list between #2-#3, and #3-#4 are quite comical.
All-Time Light Heavyweight Rankings – Behind the Scenes Timeline
Admittedly, I thought this graph was going to be much more interesting when I envisioned creating it, but perhaps that is because it was far more painful than I had envisioned and now I hate life a little more.
Anyway, I often receive questions about the career all-time rankings, specifically pertaining to the point totals. First, let me explain a few things:
UFC 152 / Odds vs. Ratings
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.
Another side note: A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | “Who won” |
| Jones vs. Belfort | Jones (-856 / Massive) | Jones (3.59x^ / Massive) | Tie |
| Johnson vs. Benavidez | Benavidez (-261 / Moderate) | Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small) | Ratings |
| Bisping vs. Stann | Bisping (-198 / Small) | Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Hamill vs. Hollett | Hamill (-357 / Large) | Hamill (1.59x / Moderate) | Tie |
| Swanson vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-247 / Moderate) | Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac | Pokrajac (-158 / Small) | Pokrajac (1.22x / Small) | Tie |
| Grant vs. Dunham | Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em) | Grant (1.26x / Small) | Ratings |
| Pierson vs. Benoist | Benoist (-217 / Small) | Pierson (1.3x / Small) | Ratings |
| Brimage vs. Hettes | Hettes (-446 / Large) | Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Gagnon vs. Watson | Watson (-188 / Small) | Gagnon (1.22x / Small) | Ratings |
| Noke vs. Brenneman | Brenneman (-224 / Moderate) | Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large) | Gamblers |
^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.
Site Enhancement: More Frequent Stat/Upcoming Event Updates
There’s no “set” schedule for this, but the following pages will now be updated on a daily basis — on average. It could happen twice a day, or every other day… but much more than it has been, which was only once per week.
- Upcoming Events
- MMA Records & Statistics (Partial)
We are definitely looking for recommendations on the “Upcoming Events” page. If you have any, please feel free to leave comments.
By the way… Does anyone know the best site to get betting odds for obscure events? “The Voice” seems to have odds for the most insignificant fights for HDNet cards. We may consider adding this as a new data point.
Stat of the Day: Average height at each weight division
A simple, yet interesting statistic for the readers today.
We’ve started compiling “listed heights” from Sherdog. Below, is a table which contains the average LISTED height per division for ranked male fighters and also the average listed height for the Top 50 in each division, as well as the difference. We don’t have every height just yet, but do have a fairly large data set to go on. Also, just added, the tallest ranked fighter in each division..
| Division | Height | Top 50 | Diff | Tallest/Shortest |
| Heavyweight+ | 6’1.9″ | 6’2.8″ | +0.9″ | 6’11.5″ – [#12] Stefan Struve 5’9″ – 6 Tied (Monson, Komkin, Brents, Inoue, Leniu, O. Sanchez) |
| Light Heavyweight | 6’1.0″ | 6’1.5″ | +0.5″ | 6’7″ – [#220] Malik Merad 5’11” – [#72] John Howard |
| Middleweight | 6’0.0″ | 6’0.6″ | +0.6″ | 6’6″ – [#35] Kendall Grove, [#248] Luke Barnatt 5’7″ – [#206] Terry Martin, [#353] Antonio Graceffo |
| Welterweight | 5’10.7″ | 5’10.9″ | +0.2″ | 6’4″ – 4 Tied (Beecroft, T. Dixon, C. Hill, B. Scott) 5’5″ – 3 Tied (Saadulaev, Crane, Chlewicki) |
| Lightweight | 5’9.4″ | 5’9.3″ | -0.1″ | 6’3″ – [#197] Jose Figueora 5’5″ – [#110] Jared Downing |
| Featherweight | 5’8.2″ | 5’7.8″ | -0.4″ | 6’4″ – [#210] Will Chope 5’3″ – 3 Tied (Quach, Reis, Y. Nakamura) |
| Bantamweight | 5’6.73″ | 5’6.66″ | -0.06″ | 6’1″ – [#231] Daniel Aguirre 5’1″ – [#133] Nate Williams |
| Flyweight | 5’5.1″ | 5’5.0″ | -0.1″ | 5’9″ – 4 Tied (Calatayud, Campuzano, Sato, C. Wright) 5’2″ – [#13] Kiyotaka Shimizu, [#18] Rambaa Somdet |
It’s interesting that top fighters have, on average, a height advantage in the heavier divisions, but a disadvantage in the lower divisions. Is this due to the increased east Asian influence on the lower divisions and/or that overall size can be a disadvantage in the lower divisions? We’ve also asked online casino and sports betting experts at OnlineCasino65.sg to comment on the stat, and here’s what they had to say: “Sports bettors will find these trends of immense importance. Understanding these can help predict match outcomes by analyzing a fighter’s height in relation to their division’s typical success profiles. It could offer a noticeable edge in placing informed bets. When you choose a trusted online casino Singapore, you ensure that placing bets is as safe as possible.”
Read more: The coolest custom boxing gift
Belts are a way for boxing enthusiasts and professional boxers to showcase their personality and achievements. The metal Custom Belt Buckles of the belt can be customized with a name, nickname or logo to highlight your unique identity. For professional boxers, it is a symbol of honor, and each belt represents a testament to a period of hard training and brilliant achievements.
New Feature: UFC Bonuses
In recent years, the UFC brass have been handing out monetary awards to selected fighters after every event, for the best performances of the night. The awards include ‘Knockout of the Night’ and ‘Submission of the Night’ for the most impressive stoppages, and ‘Fight of the Night’ awarded to both participants of the most exciting bout.
Not every bonus gets awarded at each event – there have been a few UFC cards where no fights ended in a submission – and at times multiple fighters receive each award. For example, the ‘Fight of the Night’ honors have been shared among up to three bouts in a single event. On occasion, a lucky fighter has been rewarded with both a Fight of the Night and a Submission or Knockout of the Night in the same fight.
While these awards are arbitrary and fans often disagree with who should have received the bonuses after each event, the fighters with a large number of bonuses under their belt gain the reputation of being the most exciting athletes in the UFC. Our newest contributor and long-time reader Craig compiled a list of fighters who achieved the most bonuses in each category. As with the rest of our UFC Records section, we’ve set out to publish a Top 10 in each category, but the actual numbers vary because of ties. So read on, before you grab a package of sports beans and head to the gym to work off the inspiration:
Always the fan favorite, the recently retired Chris Lytle sits atop of this list with 6 Fights of the Night. An interesting observation: 9 out of 12 fighters with 4 or more Fights of the Night have competed as lightweights in the UFC (though a few of them have ventured into other divisions as well).
A couple of Ultimate Fighter 5 alumni, Joe Lauzon and Nate Diaz lead the way with 6 and 5 Submissions of the Night respectively. Not far behind is the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wizard Demian Maia, and a name that might surprise some of our readers: Terri Etim. Maia and Etim hold 4 submission bonuses each.
This is a very short list at the moment, as only six fighters have earned more than 2 total Knockout of the Night bonuses. Not surprisingly Anderson Silva not only holds the record in this category, but also has twice as many KO awards as any other UFC fighter.
Overall ‘of the Night’ Bonuses
Total bonuses received by each fighter, in any category. Anyone with 5 or more is included, and Anderson Silva shares the top honors with Joe Lauzon with 11 total awards.
The Argument for or against Cruiserweight: Revisited (Again)
About a year ago, I posted the first update to my original post.
I feel the need to keep revisiting this as we get more data, because every few months I see this topic bubble up to the top of various sites and forums.
In summary, we started tracking weigh-in weights, and I wanted to see if the heavier fighters won more often than lighter fighters. Using the same ideals as before, with an even larger data set:
- In 778 non-draw official fights where both fighters weighed in at different weights, but above 210 (our Light Heavyweight limit), 390 were won by the lighter fighter, and 388 won by the heavier fighter (49.9%).
- When you allow for mismatches and include matches in which only one fighter had to weigh above 210, the total tally increases to 946 and the gap widens, with the heavier fighter only winning 455 (48.1%).
- For the record, across the board, the heavier fighter has won 52.5% of the time.
The results are nearly identical as before, though the heavier fighter (again) gained ground in all three statistics. There are a few possibilities to explain this and it could be a combination of:
Ranking Debate: Michael Bisping (FOLLOW-UP)
So, we ran the polls for a few days and the results are as follows. By the way, in case you missed the original post, it is here.
- The majority think that Michael Bisping’s FightMatrix ranking is a little harsh, but that it is more accurate than the #4 that Sherdog gives him. Although I didn’t give voters an option to say we overrated Bisping, 34% agreed with a ranking outside of the Top 10, and another 54% agreed that though our ranking was a bit too harsh, Sherdog’s was too kind. Only 12% thought that Sherdog was close or dead on. Given the results, I think the overall “happy medium” may be the #10 position.
- At a ratio of 3:1, voters think Hector Lombard should be higher-ranked than Bisping. Furthermore, almost 90% believe that Bisping’s ranking would suffer, were it not for the visibility of the UFC. I think this speaks to the intelligence of our readers — well done.
I hope to make this type of blog post a more frequent occurrence on our site. Although we strive for accuracy and consistency, our rankings will never completely agree with the overall consensus, and that’s fine — it is expected. In all mathematical systems there are outliers and this isn’t always necessarily a bad thing. The system can’t see bad decisions and fluke occurrences, but it also cannot see the imaginary things — like hype.
Objectively, using only real outcomes, Bisping is barely a Top 15 fighter. Though, in a purely subjective system, giving him additional credit for his close UD loss to Sonnen and boosting him up a few spots is something I’m not necessarily opposed to. I am opposed to ranking him in the Top 5 though, in any type of system.
UFC 148: Main Event Factoid
Only 69 times in MMA history has a professional fight went 5 rounds (or more) and the fight was finished before going to a decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen will only be the second time in history in which a rematch occured afterward. The first, being a rematch between Jorge Santiago and Kazuo Misaki, where in the first match-up, Santiago won by submission in the 5th round — sound familiar? Amazingly, Santiago won the rematch in the 5th round also, but that time by TKO.
Gambling Analysis: Post-Strikeforce GP Final
We hit another home run with the GP Final pick. Missed the outcome prop, but Cormier ended up being a great pick as he easily dispatched Barnett, as we expected.
For a reference, here are the details for our past “gambling analysis” article picks:
- UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
- UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
- UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
- StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
- UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
- UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
- UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
- Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $355.95. The listed odds are either approximations, or provided by our sponsors, so with a little work on your part, you could increase this total a bit as we don’t go out of our way to find the absolute best odds. Furthermore, if you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have even more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.
Jon Jones and his opposition strength/win streak
He’s already put himself within elite company, but with a win over Rashad Evans, his previous four wins will be:
Mauricio Rua – Quinton Jackson – Lyoto Machida – Rashad Evans
All four were highly ranked at the time of the fight AND all four are within the Top 10 Light Heavyweights of all-time. This may likely be the most impressive four-fight win streak in history.
Notable Elite 4+ Win Streaks
Georges St. Pierre (Josh Koscheck-Matt Hughes-Matt Serra-Jon Fitch-B.J.Penn-Thiago Alves-Dan Hardy-Josh Koscheck-Jake Shields)
Chuck Liddell (Randy Couture-Jeremy Horn-Randy Couture-Renato Sobral-Tito Ortiz)
Dominick Cruz (Joseph Benavidez-Brian Bowles-Joseph Benavidez-Scott Jorgensen-Urijah Faber)
Gambling Analysis: UFC on Fuel TV 2
With the first UFC event in six weeks, I’m getting back into the swing of things with an opportunity to score some coin. Having licked my wounds as a result of the mental trauma resulting from my undefeated streak coming to a halt, I’m still riding high in the grand scheme of things and am here to present another advantageous, perhaps obvious bet.
Gustaffson vs. Silva is a match where Gustaffson is a favorite at about -225. I think this is an incredible play. Since his loss to Davis, Gustaffson has actually done enough results-wise to surpass Davis. Add into the fact, that Silva has not had an official win in almost three years and this results in a great play for a young/upcoming fighter. I do not favor a particular outcome for this fight, but I do favor the win for Gustaffson.
Of course with every bet, it’s a good idea to determine the best sports books available to you on the Internet. The variety of sports and types of bets can wildly differ between books. Always look for reputation ratings and the best odds before opening an account and making your bets.
For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:
- UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
- Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
- UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
- Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
- No Outcome Predicted
- UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
- Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
- StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
- Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
- StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
- No Contest
- UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
- Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
- UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
- Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
- UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
- No Outcome Predicted
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners (prior to UFC Fuel TV 2) at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $216.27. If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.