Comeback Fighter of the Year: Ryan LaFlare
Guys like LaFlare wreak havoc on the ratings — but that’s OK. Almost three years of professional inactivity didn’t seem to affect him at all. He increased his level of opposition significantly and rattled off four wins, three of which were in the UFC. Way to go.
Honorable Mention: Yancy Medeiros
Note: We have two ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.
“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)
Most Noteworthy: Phil Davis UD(3) Lyoto Machida
I begrudgingly dub this most noteworthy upset of the year. Not only was this a big upset by points, but it was an upset that never should have happened. With the judges asleep at the wheel, we saw Davis get an incredibly dubious decision against Machida. How upsetting.
Honorable Mentions: Antonio Silva KO(3) Alistair Overeem, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira UD(3) Rashad Evans
Most Lopsided: Celine Haga UD(2) Naho Sugiyama
Although Sugiyama was coming off her first loss against Penne, having finally left Japan. Who saw this? Haga, formerly 3-11, beats Sugiyama, 8-1, after “Sugi Rock” returns to the comfortable confines of Japanese soil.
Honorable Mentions: Phil Davis UD(3) Lyoto Machida, Rustam Khabilov UD(3) Jorge Masvidal
Men: Steve Mocco
After going 3-0 on the year, with two of those wins coming by stoppage, Mocco has gained a respectable ranking (#87) at the year-end. His wrestling pedigree is sure to see him vault higher up the rankings, but will his lack of height create an issue against the division’s giants?
Honorable Mentions: Mikhail Gazaev, Magomed Biboulatov
Women: Livia Renata Souza
Although listed as a Strawweight by Sherdog’s Fight Finder, she toiled in the barren wasteland that is the Women’s Flyweight division and managed to amass five wins against no losses in 2013. Those performances accumulate to earn her a #6 ranking at year’s end.
Honorable Mentions: Faith Van Duin, Alida Gray
Let’s face it, no rating system or ranking list is perfect, not even the one used here at Fight Matrix. There are varying perspectives, varying protocols and complex calculations (well, at least here) at play.
Where the media lists and personal lists suffer, which is in the realm of lacking knowledge and bias — we excel. Where they excel, which is in the realm of “common sense”, we are subject to suffer. I say “subject to”, because a good software-based rating system depends on norms and works to eliminate outliers through scenario-based handling. Though, sometimes even this ounce of prevention fails.
Today, we veer off from MMA, into the world of boxing. Folks, I introduce you to Ali Raymi.
If you are a long-time viewer of the site, you are probably familiar with the term, “quality performance”. If not, we made a blog post about it and the associated decay way back in 2008. Simply put, a fighter registers a quality performance when they fight another fighter reasonably close to or above their own rating and they deliver an outcome that is not egregiously beneath what is expected based on the ratings difference. So, it is important to know that quality performances are relative.
In other words, Fedor Emelianenko in his prime would not have registered a quality performance over #500 ranked Joe Schmoe, regardless of the outcome. However, if Joe Schmoe managed a split decision loss against Fedor, Joe would earn the quality performance — so these CAN be earned even in losses.
When looking at fighters with at least 15 wins that have had winning records, one fighter stands way above the rest.
In the past two years (and one week), we’ve seen 8 UFC shows take place in Brazil, with this amount steadily increasing — 1 in 2011, 3 in 2012, 7 in 2013 (3 still to come).
Given that a large majority of UFC shows and their fighter population reside outside of Brazil, how “fair” is it to these fighters that so many of their fights take place in Brazil against Brazilian opponents? When we say “fair”, we refer to two things — the “hometown advantage” and the matchmaking.
The “hometown advantage” is something we looked at very briefly a couple of years ago, when some bookmakers like Bwin started to claimed that in sports such as Poker, it can give you what you need to win. We found just under a 2% advantage for the home fighter (a hometown fighter with say… 98 rating points would have a 50/50 chance versus an outsider with 100 rating points). However, this included a slew of contests that involved neighboring entities (example — US vs. Canada) and I think we can all agree a United States vs. Brazil or even more extreme, Japan vs. Brazil at Brazil is a far cry from the aforementioned border wars. Plus, the database is much, much more mature now. A detailed re-visit of this analysis of this is better saved for another day.
Using the fighter “nationality” setting you see on our ranking pages, I isolated 60 fights from the 8 previously mentioned UFC shows that involved a Brazil vs. non-Brazil fighter in Brazil, that resulted in non-draw, non-no contest outcomes. Brazilian fighters won 47 of these fights, a win rate of 78.33%. If we expand this window back to 1/1/2010 and include all organizations where we know the nationalities of both fighters (399 fights), this win rate drops significantly to 62.15% — though is still sizable.
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| So, how much of this is the mysterious “hometown advantage” and how much of this is matchmaking? |
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Sherdog, one of the most, if not THE most respected MMA web site on the Internet has produced Top 10 rankings for quite sometime. I thought I would take a look at their latest Top 10s and compare the differences between the fights they rank and the ones we rank, including some commentary.
Heavyweight
| Rank | Fight Matrix | Diff | Sherdog |
| 1 | Cain Velasquez | = | Cain Velasquez |
| 2 | Junior dos Santos | = | Junior dos Santos |
| 3 | Daniel Cormier | -1 | Fabricio Werdum |
| 4 | Antonio Silva | -1 | Daniel Cormier |
| 5 | Fabricio Werdum | +2 | Antonio Silva |
| 6 | Alistair Overeem | = | Alistair Overeem |
| 7 | Frank Mir | = | Frank Mir |
| 8 | Mark Hunt | Next 5 | Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira |
| 9 | Josh Barnett | = | Josh Barnett |
| 10 | Stipe Miocic | = | Stipe Miocic |
| Next 5 | Travis Browne Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira Roy Nelson Stefan Struve Alexander Volkov |
Travis Browne Gabriel Gonzaga Mark Hunt Roy Nelson Stefan Struve |
The two rankings are eerily similar, with the first notable difference being Fabricio Werdum.
I had every intent to create a blog entry, detailing the performance of undefeated winners in an immediate rematch.
However, in known professional MMA history, Chris Weidman will be the first undefeated fighter to give his opponent (Anderson Silva) an immediate rematch after winning the first match — unless it is beaten by a bout scheduled to take place prior to the rematch.
On another note, I found 303 immediate rematches in which the original fighter won by KO or TKO. In the rematches, the original winner was 191-105-5 (2 NC) — a win % of 63.5% (excluding the no contests).
Another fun statistic has been added to our collection: Fight outcomes broken down by weight division.
MMA Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
UFC Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
Bellator Fight Outcomes by Weight Class
Also check out the other entries in this series:
Now visible in the fighter ranking “hover overs”, is our initial iteration of a statistic we call combat age.
For years, fans have subjectively argued about which fighters were battle-worn and have attempted to link this to the foreshadowing of the end of a fighter’s prime. With combat age, we are looking to add our objective touch to this.
At it’s most basic level, one can equate “combat age” to “dog years” in that it will mirror the basic human lifecycle. With this new computation, we expect fighters to hit their respective “peak” in the years that your typical adult “peaks” in life, somewhere between 25 and 40. We will expect most fighters to start their descent at some point in their 40s and be far removed from their peak by 60. Please keep in mind, that there will be anomalies, just like in life. These anomalies (for the most part) will be welcome. Anomalies we cannot prevent, are those that basic fight data can’t convey, such as serious career-altering injuries, non-MMA fight careers or a predisposition to not get knocked out (incredibly hard heads).
In this computation, we will be considering:
The included factors, as well as the weighting of said factors are subject to and may very likely change.
For a quick demo of combat age.
| Age | Combat Age | Diff | |
| Forrest Griffin | 33 | 44 | +11 |
| Wanderlei Silva | 36 | 56 | +20 |
| Georges St. Pierre | 31 | 38 | +7 |
| Andrei Arlovski | 34 | 50 | +16 |
| Anderson Silva | 38 | 44 | +6 |
Expanding on our “Fight Outcomes By Year” feature, we compiled the statistics for Bellator MMA:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/bellator-fight-outcomes-by-year/
Of course the all MMA fight outcomes by year and UFC fight outcomes by year stats are still available.
We’ll be adding breakdowns for more organizations and by weight class in the future.
A couple of years ago, we published a compilation of all UFC fight outcomes by year, from 1993 to 2010.
By popular request, we decided to make this a permanent feature. We created a page for UFC statistics, and another one for all MMA fights in our database. There are also some statistics on fight outcome percentages, and a breakdown of different decision types. So read on:
All MMA Fight Outcomes By Year
Thanks to Underground Forum (UG) members crazychris & D241 for the suggestion!
Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Urijah Faber (27-6-0, -458) vs. [#27] Scott Jorgensen (14-6-0, +354)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #11 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.
Scott Jorgensen is the All-Time #18 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#59BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [*] Brian Bowles (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:27 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Scott Jorgensen (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#211BW] John Albert (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2012-06-08: L vs. [#6BW] Eddie Wineland (20-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2
2012-02-04: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 49, Scott Jorgensen 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Urijah Faber leads 4-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#152] Uriah Hall (7-2-0, -357) vs. [NA] Kelvin Gastelum (5-0-0, +278)
Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (3-0-0)
2012-06-15: W vs. [#509MW] Nodar Kuduxashvili (5-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-02-10: W vs. [#661MW] Daniel Akinyemi (3-1-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 3:58 of round 1
2011-04-08: W vs. [#217MW] Aung La Nsang (13-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:37 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2012-07-20: W vs. [NA] Mike Ashford (3-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#778MW] Bill Smallwood (1-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1
2011-10-22: W vs. [NA] Mike Gentile (0-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Uriah Hall 302, Kelvin Gastelum 267
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#2/#10DD] Miesha Tate (13-3-0, -102) vs. [#6] Cat Zingano (7-0-0, -125)
Miesha Tate is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Miesha Tate (2-1-0)
2012-08-18: W vs. [#17BW] Julie Kedzie (16-11-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:28 of round 3
2012-03-03: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD] Ronda Rousey (7-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
2011-07-30: W vs. [#1FW/#2DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Cat Zingano (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#24BW] Raquel Pennington (3-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:32 of round 2
2011-05-14: W vs. [#10FLY] Takayo Hashi (14-4-0) via KO (Slam) in 4:42 of round 3
2010-12-10: W vs. [#22FLY] Carina Damm (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:37 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miesha Tate 238, Cat Zingano 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Abedi vs. Yousef | Abedi (-139 / Very Small) | Abedi (1.59x / Moderate) | Abedi | |
| Lawlor vs. Kuiper | Lawlor (-184 / Moderate) | Lawlor (1.52x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Alloway vs. LaFlare | LaFlare (-192 / Moderate) | Alloway (1.41x / Small) | PASS | #3 |
| Brimage vs. McGregor | McGregor (-166 / Small) | McGregor (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #1 |
| Amagov vs. Spang | Amagov (-166 / Small) | Amagov (2.41x / Large) | Amagov | |
| Troeng vs. Cella | Troeng (-239 / Moderate) | Troeng (6.90x / Massive) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Johnson vs. Madadi | Johnson (-232 / Moderate) | Johnson (1.88x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Peralta vs. Corassani | Peralta (-357 / Large) | Peralta (3.55x / Massive) | Peralta | #4 |
| Brandao vs. Garza | Brandao (-212 / Moderate) | Garza (1.44x / Small) | Garza | |
| Pickett vs. Easton | Pickett (-160 / Small) | Pickett (1.43x / Small) | PASS | |
| Mitrione vs. De Fries | Mitrione (-328 / Large) | Mitrione (1.67x / Moderate) | De Fries | |
| Pearson vs. Couture | Pearson (-402 / Large) | Pearson (1.08x / Pick ‘Em) | Couture | |
| Mousasi vs. Latifi | Mousasi (-1190 / Massive) | Mousasi (2.58x / Large) | Latifi | #2, #4 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Abedi, Amagov, Peralta
Underdogs to consider:
Latifi over Mousasi – A true shot in the dark, but -1190 is ridiculous territory and Latifi is actually a quality opponent.
De Fries over Mitrione – A very small bet, as we think De Fries is a slight bargain.
Couture over Pearson – Couture is a great bargain and although not favored by the ratings, Pearson is no world beater himself.
Garza over Brandao – All things considered, Garza looks like a decent bet here.
We compiled a list of some of the most unusual and controversial decisions in the history of mixed martial arts. This includes most controversial split decisions (with the biggest difference in scores among the judges) and the most lopsided unanimous decisions (with the biggest difference in scores between the two fighters).
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/unusual-decisions/
Take a look and let us know what you think!
