Close Decisions and DQs… What If?
Last year, we added support for a slightly modified version of the Glicko-1 rating system and I posted a pretty thorough article about it here.
I proved a few things that I already knew, but most notably that it’d be more accurate to treat split decisions and majority decisions as draws, than to treat them as full wins. Prediction rates were highest when I assigned a win value (max=1.0) of 0.55 to split decisions and 0.61 to majority decisions. This means that the loser in these cases receives the remainder of the win value. The same thing very likely applies to close unanimous decisions, but we’ll keep it simple for now. For the record, in a draw situation, 0.50 goes to both fighters.
Disqualifications are another strange outcome too. After watching them happen in MMA, gut feelings tell you that in most cases, they are freak occurrences. We have to count them in the official results, because if we didn’t, fighters would use them to bail themselves out of bad situations unless thoroughly penalized. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many of them, which makes them a poor subject for analysis.
So, what happens if we run the rating system against the pro bout database where we treat split and majority decisions as draws and ignore DQs? Well, wonder no more!
Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris (05-16-2020)
Heavyweight (265)
[#9] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0, +130) vs. [#16] Walt Harris (13-7-0, -158)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #14 ranked Heavyweight and #47 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2019-12-07: L vs. [#8HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:56 of round 5
2019-04-20: W vs. [#13HW+] Alexey Oleynik (61-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#34HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Walt Harris (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#13HW+] Alexey Oleynik (61-13-1) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-05-04: W vs. [#42HW+] Sergey Spivak (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2018-12-29: NC vs. [#40HW+] Andrei Arlovski (29-19-0)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Walt Harris – Win%: 58.47
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alistair Overeem (1836.95) [+120.35] – Win%: 63.41
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alistair Overeem (1860.35) [+58.47] – Win%: 56.36
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alistair Overeem (1805.87) [+11.27] – Win%: 52.15
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 161, Walt Harris 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alistair Overeem leads 3-1
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#9] Claudia Gadelha (17-4-0, -194) vs. [#16] Angela Hill (12-7-0, +162)
Claudia Gadelha is the All-Time #30 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (2-1-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#22SW] Randa Markos (10-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#8SW] Nina Ansaroff (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (16-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (3-0-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#99SW] Konklak Suphisara (4-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#43SW] Hannah Cifers (10-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:26 of round 2
2019-09-21: W vs. [#54SW] Ariane Carnelossi (12-2-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:56 of round 3
Odds Favorite (Implied): Claudia Gadelha – Win%: 63.35
Elo Favorite (Standard): Claudia Gadelha (1627.84) [+102.04] – Win%: 61.45
Elo Favorite (Modified): Claudia Gadelha (1619.37) [+80.08] – Win%: 58.68
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Claudia Gadelha (1599.79) [+50.98] – Win%: 59.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Claudia Gadelha 315, Angela Hill 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Claudia Gadelha leads 2-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#14LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0, -132) vs. [#21] Dan Ige (13-2-0, +107)
Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (1-2-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#11LW] Paul Felder (17-5-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Justin Gaethje (22-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#7LW] Dan Hooker (20-8-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 2:19 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Dan Ige (3-0-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#32FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#54FW] Kevin Aguilar (17-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#153FW] Danny Henry (12-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:17 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Edson Barboza – Win%: 54.08
Elo Favorite (Standard): Dan Ige (1935.29) [+99.08] – Win%: 61.13
Elo Favorite (Modified): Edson Barboza (1887.89) [+10.73] – Win%: 51.17
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Edson Barboza (1909.09) [+57.43] – Win%: 60.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edson Barboza 252, Dan Ige 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (05-10-2020)
Notable Info
- Some male fighters were erroneously shifted to female in the last update. This has been fixed.
- All-Time Rankings updated again after UFC 249.
- 5/12 UPDATE – Ratings regenerated with minor bug fix, partial forgiveness on a double penalty situation exposed by Dominick Cruz. The fix only affects the ratings of a handful of ranked fighters.
Fight Matrix Program – Anthony Smith vs Glover Teixeira (05-13-2020)
Light Heavyweight (205)
[#4] Anthony Smith (33-14-0, -173) vs. [#11] Glover Teixeira (30-7-0, +143)
Glover Teixeira is the All-Time #21 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Smith (2-1-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [*] Alexander Gustafsson (18-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 4
2019-03-02: L vs. [#1LHW/#9DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (26-1-0) via UD (48-44, 48-44, 48-44)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#10LHW] Volkan Oezdemir (17-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#39LHW] Ion Cutelaba (15-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:37 of round 2
2019-01-19: W vs. [#43MW] Karl Roberson (9-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:21 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Anthony Smith – Win%: 60.62
Elo Favorite (Standard): Anthony Smith (2080.27) [+125.09] – Win%: 63.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Anthony Smith (2091.57) [+163.18] – Win%: 67.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Anthony Smith (2088.13) [+156.02] – Win%: 76.09
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Smith 347, Glover Teixeira 242
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Smith leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#30] Ben Rothwell (37-12-0, +124) vs. [#22LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0, -150)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (1-2-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#37HW+] Stefan Struve (29-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2019-07-20: L vs. [#40HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#12HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#47LHW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4-0) via Submission (Shoulder Choke) in 2:14 of round 2
2019-04-13: L vs. [#13LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-10-06: L vs. [#7LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Ovince St. Preux – Win%: 57.33
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ovince St. Preux (1733.16) [+31.62] – Win%: 53.60
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ovince St. Preux (1757.42) [+18.91] – Win%: 52.07
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ben Rothwell (1735.59) [+5.80] – Win%: 51.12
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 158, Ovince St. Preux 228
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#10] Alexander Hernandez (11-2-0) vs. [#35] Drew Dober (22-9-0)
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#18LW] Francisco Trinaldo (25-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-01-19: L vs. [#25WW] Donald Cerrone (36-15-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:42 of round 2
2018-07-28: W vs. [#50LW] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (2-1-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#90LW] Nasrat Haqparast (11-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2019-06-29: W vs. [#438FW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:07 of round 1
2019-03-09: L vs. [#16LW] Beneil Dariush (18-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:41 of round 2
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexander Hernandez (1843.03) [+75.41] – Win%: 58.53
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexander Hernandez (1817.88) [+56.68] – Win%: 56.17
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexander Hernandez (1824.03) [+53.17] – Win%: 59.85
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Hernandez 298, Drew Dober 116
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Hernandez leads 2-0
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje (05-09-2020)
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#2/#6DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0, -179) vs. [#4] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0, +150)
Tony Ferguson is the All-Time #10 ranked Lightweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #29 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#20WW] Donald Cerrone (36-14-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-10-06: W vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (22-10-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2017-10-07: W vs. [#8LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (3-0-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#20WW] Donald Cerrone (36-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#15LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-08-25: W vs. [#113WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Tony Ferguson – Win%: 61.59
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tony Ferguson (2326.98) [+147.38] – Win%: 66.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tony Ferguson (2265.16) [+142.16] – Win%: 65.07
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Tony Ferguson (2285.64) [+124.10] – Win%: 71.07
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 336, Justin Gaethje 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Justin Gaethje leads 3-2
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#2P4P] Henry Cejudo (15-2-0, -222) vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (22-2-0, +181)
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #15 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Dominick Cruz is the All-Time #1 ranked Bantamweight and #33 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-01-19: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#8BW/#3P4P] Demetrious Johnson (30-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Last 3 Fights: Dominick Cruz (2-1-0)
2016-12-30: L vs. [#25BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-3-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-47)
2016-06-04: W vs. [#16BW] Urijah Faber (35-11-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2016-01-17: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 49-46)
Odds Favorite (Implied): Henry Cejudo – Win%: 65.95
Elo Favorite (Standard): Henry Cejudo (2247.66) [+229.12] – Win%: 74.01
Elo Favorite (Modified): Henry Cejudo (2163.15) [+213.73] – Win%: 71.82
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Henry Cejudo (2199.49) [+209.55] – Win%: 81.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Henry Cejudo 336, Dominick Cruz 1226
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dominick Cruz leads 4-2
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0, -285) vs. [#7] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0-0, +229)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #26 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#6HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#26HW+] Cain Velasquez (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-0-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:56 of round 5
2019-11-02: W vs. [#38HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-06-22: W vs. [#147HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:09 of round 1
Odds Favorite (Implied): Francis Ngannou – Win%: 70.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Francis Ngannou (2149.39) [+337.67] – Win%: 82.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Francis Ngannou (2133.52) [+301.99] – Win%: 78.95
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Francis Ngannou (2117.05) [+278.58] – Win%: 88.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 315, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (04-26-2020)
Just keeping the seat warm…