Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Middleweight (185)
[#17] Michel Pereira (32-11-0, +125) vs. [#25] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0, -152)
Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#80MW] Ihor Potieria (25-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-03-09: W vs. [#41MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:01 of round 1
2023-10-14: W vs. [#49MW] Andre Petroski (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (3-0-0)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#53MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 2
2023-05-20: W vs. [#48MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-09-17: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-8-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Anthony Hernandez | -152 | 57.57% | |
| Elo K170 | Michel Pereira | 2007.89 | +128.77 | 67.73% |
| Elo Modified | Michel Pereira | 1975.95 | +71.18 | 60.10% |
| Glicko-1 | Michel Pereira | 2046.14 | +87.61 | 62.35% |
| WHR | Anthony Hernandez | 1906.78 | +51.07 | 57.30% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michel Pereira 168, Anthony Hernandez 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#15] Kyler Phillips (12-2-0, -347) vs. [#16] Rob Font (20-8-0, +268)
Rob Font is the All-Time #34 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (3-0-0)
2024-03-09: W vs. [#18BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#44BW] Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-12: W vs. [*] Marcelo Rojo (17-10-0) via Submission (Triangle Armbar) in 1:48 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (1-2-0)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#4BW/#9P4P] Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#7BW] Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#56BW] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:57 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Kyler Phillips | -347 | 74.07% | |
| Elo K170 | Kyler Phillips | 1860.64 | +28.08 | 54.03% |
| Elo Modified | Kyler Phillips | 1882.25 | +86.67 | 62.22% |
| Glicko-1 | Kyler Phillips | 1954.83 | +75.99 | 60.76% |
| WHR | Kyler Phillips | 1866.25 | +145.47 | 69.79% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyler Phillips 224, Rob Font 322
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kyler Phillips leads 1-0
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Flyweight (125)
[#15] Charles Johnson (16-6-0, -223) vs. [#258] Su Mudaerji (16-6-0, +182)
Last 3 Fights: Charles Johnson (3-0-0)
2024-07-13: W vs. [#32FLY] Joshua Van (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 3
2024-05-11: W vs. [#110BW] Jake Hadley (11-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: W vs. [#79FLY] Azat Maksum (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Su Mudaerji (1-2-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#22FLY] Tim Elliott (20-13-1) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 1
2022-07-16: L vs. [*] Matt Schnell (16-10-0) via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:24 of round 2
2021-01-20: W vs. [*] Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Charles Johnson | -223 | 66.06% | |
| Elo K170 | Charles Johnson | 1727.60 | +338.88 | 87.55% |
| Elo Modified | Charles Johnson | 1731.40 | +327.51 | 86.82% |
| Glicko-1 | Charles Johnson | 1798.25 | +406.55 | 91.22% |
| WHR | Charles Johnson | 1634.06 | +309.95 | 85.62% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Johnson 98, Su Mudaerji 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[*] Francis Ngannou (17-3-0, -304) vs. [#10] Renan Ferreira (13-3-0, +227)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2022-01-22: W vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2021-03-27: W vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#9HW+] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:20 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Renan Ferreira (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#14HW+] Ryan Bader (31-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 1
2023-11-24: W vs. [#11HW+] Denis Goltsov (35-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 2
2023-08-18: W vs. [#77HW+] Maurice Greene (11-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Francis Ngannou | -304 | 71.10% | |
| Elo K170 | Francis Ngannou | 2348.99 | +414.44 | 91.58% |
| Elo Modified | Francis Ngannou | 2324.70 | +383.08 | 90.07% |
| Glicko-1 | Francis Ngannou | 2461.72 | +393.23 | 90.58% |
| WHR | Francis Ngannou | 2176.44 | +203.35 | 76.32% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 1001, Renan Ferreira 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight (145)
[#1/#5P4P] Cristiane Justino (27-2-0, +101) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Larissa Pacheco (23-4-0, -127)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #2 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (3-0-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#5FW] Cat Zingano (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:01 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#4FW] Arlene Blencowe (16-10-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2021-11-12: W vs. [#15FW] Sinead Kavanagh (9-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (3-0-0)
2023-11-24: W vs. [#6FW] Marina Mokhnatkina (11-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2023-08-18: W vs. [#10FW] Olena Kolesnyk (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:14 of round 1
2023-06-16: W vs. [#25FW] Amber Leibrock (7-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Larissa Pacheco | -127 | 52.93% | |
| Elo K170 | Cristiane Justino | 1963.55 | +176.07 | 73.37% |
| Elo Modified | Cristiane Justino | 1967.15 | +155.03 | 70.94% |
| Glicko-1 | Cristiane Justino | 2042.11 | +203.17 | 76.31% |
| WHR | Cristiane Justino | 1987.08 | +184.79 | 74.34% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 378, Larissa Pacheco 330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#7] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0, -597) vs. [#14] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0, +391)
Johnny Eblen is the All-Time #35 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Johnny Eblen (3-0-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#10LHW] Impa Kasanganay (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [#14MW] Fabian Edwards (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-02-04: W vs. [#31MW] Anatoly Tokov (32-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Fabian Edwards (2-1-0)
2024-03-22: W vs. [#29MW] Aaron Jeffery (15-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-23: L vs. [#7MW] Johnny Eblen (15-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:21 of round 3
2023-05-12: W vs. [*] Gegard Mousasi (49-9-2) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Johnny Eblen | -597 | 80.78% | |
| Elo K170 | Johnny Eblen | 2138.82 | +253.61 | 81.15% |
| Elo Modified | Johnny Eblen | 2065.88 | +186.25 | 74.50% |
| Glicko-1 | Johnny Eblen | 2146.28 | +197.48 | 75.71% |
| WHR | Johnny Eblen | 2005.68 | +207.98 | 76.80% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Eblen 238, Fabian Edwards 211
Previous Match-up Record: Johnny Eblen leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fights considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
“The Underdog” bet/parlay
Flyweight (125)
[#2/#7DD] Brandon Royval (16-7-0, +174) vs. [#7] Tatsuro Taira (16-0-0, -212)
Brandon Royval is the All-Time #18 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Tatsuro Taira is the All-Time #36 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brandon Royval (2-1-0)
2024-02-24: W vs. [#3FLY] Brandon Moreno (21-8-2) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 46-49)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Alexandre Pantoja (28-5-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#19FLY] Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) via KO (Knee and Elbows) in 2:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Tatsuro Taira (3-0-0)
2024-06-15: W vs. [#17FLY] Alex Perez (25-9-0) via TKO (Knee Injury) in 2:59 of round 2
2023-12-09: W vs. [#161FLY] Carlos Hernandez (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#146FLY] Edgar Chairez (11-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Tatsuro Taira | -212 | 65.05% | |
| Elo K170 | Brandon Royval | 1975.18 | +71.16 | 60.10% |
| Elo Modified | Tatsuro Taira | 1890.84 | +39.41 | 55.65% |
| Glicko-1 | Tatsuro Taira | 1954.71 | +56.53 | 58.07% |
| WHR | Tatsuro Taira | 1868.86 | +89.29 | 62.57% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brandon Royval 231, Tatsuro Taira 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#29] Jun Yong Park (17-6-0, -173) vs. [#30] Brad Tavares (20-9-0, +142)
Last 3 Fights: Jun Yong Park (2-1-0)
2023-12-09: L vs. [#24MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-07-15: W vs. [#71MW] Albert Duraev (16-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:45 of round 2
2023-02-04: W vs. [#150MW] Denis Tiuliulin (10-10-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (1-2-0)
2024-02-10: L vs. [#22MW] Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:55 of round 3
2023-08-19: W vs. [#27MW] Chris Weidman (16-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-04-22: L vs. [#38MW] Bruno Silva (23-11-0) via TKO (Knee and Punch) in 3:35 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Jun Yong Park | -173 | 60.53% | |
| Elo K170 | Jun Yong Park | 1741.38 | +42.76 | 56.12% |
| Elo Modified | Jun Yong Park | 1787.40 | +70.69 | 60.03% |
| Glicko-1 | Jun Yong Park | 1831.45 | +104.68 | 64.62% |
| WHR | Jun Yong Park | 1741.93 | +79.86 | 61.29% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jun Yong Park 308, Brad Tavares 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#24] Grant Dawson (21-2-1, -403) vs. [*] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0, +305)
Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (2-1-0)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#121LW] Joe Solecki (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#25LW] Bobby Green (32-16-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#68LW] Damir Ismagulov (26-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Rafa Garcia (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#119LW] Clay Guida (38-24-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-17: W vs. [#286LW] Maheshate Hayisaer (10-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-07-30: L vs. [#29LW] Drakkar Klose (15-2-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Grant Dawson | -403 | 76.44% | |
| Elo K170 | Grant Dawson | 1980.01 | +198.85 | 75.86% |
| Elo Modified | Grant Dawson | 1946.71 | +196.16 | 75.57% |
| Glicko-1 | Grant Dawson | 1987.73 | +199.54 | 75.92% |
| WHR | Grant Dawson | 1852.73 | +133.77 | 68.35% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 133, Rafa Garcia 546
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#6P4P] Alex Pereira (11-2-0, -516) vs. [#8] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0, +370)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #18 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:13 of round 2
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (3-0-0)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#16LHW] Anthony Smith (38-20-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [#51HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2022-10-29: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Alex Pereira | -516 | 79.74% | |
| Elo K170 | Alex Pereira | 2285.08 | +383.74 | 90.11% |
| Elo Modified | Alex Pereira | 2248.01 | +376.65 | 89.73% |
| Glicko-1 | Alex Pereira | 2376.35 | +462.46 | 93.48% |
| WHR | Alex Pereira | 2157.07 | +356.75 | 88.63% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 98, Khalil Rountree 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#2/#8P4P] Raquel Pennington (16-8-0, -183) vs. [*] Julianna Pena (11-5-0, +151)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.
Julianna Pena is the All-Time #31 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (3-0-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#16BW] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#4BW] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#7FW] Aspen Ladd (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2022-07-30: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2021-12-11: W vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-01-23: W vs. [#9FW] Sara McMann (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:39 of round 3
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Raquel Pennington | -183 | 61.87% | |
| Elo K170 | Raquel Pennington | 1850.31 | +119.69 | 66.57% |
| Elo Modified | Raquel Pennington | 1788.98 | +61.43 | 58.75% |
| Glicko-1 | Julianna Pena | 1773.92 | +5.02 | 50.72% |
| WHR | Julianna Pena | 1759.76 | +89.61 | 62.62% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 259, Julianna Pena 798
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Julianna Pena leads 2-1
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Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Jose Aldo (32-8-0, +143) vs. [#24] Mario Bautista (14-2-0, -174)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #26 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#17BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#1BW/#5DD/#4P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#16BW] Rob Font (20-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (3-0-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#42BW] Ricky Simon (21-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#82BW] DaMon Blackshear (14-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-11: W vs. [*] Guido Cannetti (10-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
| System | Favorite | Rating | Rating Diff | Win % |
| Betting Odds | Mario Bautista | -174 | 60.67% | |
| Elo K170 | Jose Aldo | 2100.98 | +178.86 | 73.69% |
| Elo Modified | Jose Aldo | 2092.23 | +179.06 | 73.71% |
| Glicko-1 | Jose Aldo | 2145.13 | +205.35 | 76.53% |
| WHR | Jose Aldo | 2015.17 | +219.95 | 78.01% |
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 154, Mario Bautista 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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We ran a series of these articles for about three months earlier in the year, changing the parameters and offerings as we went. Learned quite a bit along the way…
So I thought it’d be interesting to try again, running with the latest parameters and starting with a clean slate.
Without further delay…. here are the particulars and bets…
