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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree (10-05-2024)

Posted on September 30, 2024 by Jason

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#6P4P] Alex Pereira (11-2-0, -516) vs. [#8] Khalil Rountree (13-6-0, +370)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #18 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (3-0-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:13 of round 2
2024-04-13: W vs. [#5LHW] Jamahal Hill (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 1
2023-11-11: W vs. [#4LHW] Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Khalil Rountree (3-0-0)
2023-12-09: W vs. [#16LHW] Anthony Smith (38-20-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [#51HW+] Chris Daukaus (12-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1
2022-10-29: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alex Pereira -516 79.74%
Elo K170 Alex Pereira 2285.08 +383.74 90.11%
Elo Modified Alex Pereira 2248.01 +376.65 89.73%
Glicko-1 Alex Pereira 2376.35 +462.46 93.48%
WHR Alex Pereira 2157.07 +356.75 88.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 98, Khalil Rountree 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#2/#8P4P] Raquel Pennington (16-8-0, -183) vs. [*] Julianna Pena (11-5-0, +151)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.
Julianna Pena is the All-Time #31 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (3-0-0)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#16BW] Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#4BW] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: W vs. [#7FW] Aspen Ladd (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Julianna Pena (2-1-0)
2022-07-30: L vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)
2021-12-11: W vs. [*] Amanda Nunes (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2021-01-23: W vs. [#9FW] Sara McMann (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:39 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raquel Pennington -183 61.87%
Elo K170 Raquel Pennington 1850.31 +119.69 66.57%
Elo Modified Raquel Pennington 1788.98 +61.43 58.75%
Glicko-1 Julianna Pena 1773.92 +5.02 50.72%
WHR Julianna Pena 1759.76 +89.61 62.62%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 259, Julianna Pena 798
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Julianna Pena leads 2-1
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Jose Aldo (32-8-0, +143) vs. [#24] Mario Bautista (14-2-0, -174)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #26 ranked Bantamweight and #3 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#17BW] Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-08-20: L vs. [#1BW/#5DD/#4P4P] Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-12-04: W vs. [#16BW] Rob Font (20-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Mario Bautista (3-0-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#42BW] Ricky Simon (21-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#82BW] DaMon Blackshear (14-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-03-11: W vs. [*] Guido Cannetti (10-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mario Bautista -174 60.67%
Elo K170 Jose Aldo 2100.98 +178.86 73.69%
Elo Modified Jose Aldo 2092.23 +179.06 73.71%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2145.13 +205.35 76.53%
WHR Jose Aldo 2015.17 +219.95 78.01%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 154, Mario Bautista 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#1/#9DD] Kayla Harrison (17-1-0, -782) vs. [#4] Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0, +516)

Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#7BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:47 of round 2
2023-11-24: W vs. [#7FW] Aspen Ladd (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-25: L vs. [#2FW/#7DD/#9P4P] Larissa Pacheco (23-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Ketlen Vieira (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#20BW] Pannie Kianzad (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#2BW/#8P4P] Raquel Pennington (16-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-05-21: W vs. [#7BW] Holly Holm (15-7-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kayla Harrison -782 84.52%
Elo K170 Kayla Harrison 1734.93 +22.73 53.27%
Elo Modified Kayla Harrison 1780.01 +51.29 57.33%
Glicko-1 Kayla Harrison 1809.40 +111.60 65.53%
WHR Kayla Harrison 1862.54 +280.30 83.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kayla Harrison 175, Ketlen Vieira 441
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#13] Roman Dolidze (13-3-0, +142) vs. [#16] Kevin Holland (26-11-0, -172)

Last 3 Fights: Roman Dolidze (1-2-0)
2024-06-29: W vs. [#16LHW] Anthony Smith (38-20-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-02-03: L vs. [#5MW] Nassourdine Imavov (15-4-0) via MD (49-44, 47-47, 48-46)
2023-03-18: L vs. [*] Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (1-2-0)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#42MW] Michal Oleksiejczuk (20-9-0) via Technical Submission (Armbar) in 1:34 of round 1
2024-03-09: L vs. [#15WW] Michael Page (22-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-09-16: L vs. [#7WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -172 60.48%
Elo K170 Kevin Holland 1891.41 +32.85 54.71%
Elo Modified Kevin Holland 1919.61 +41.62 55.96%
Glicko-1 Kevin Holland 2006.41 +56.35 58.04%
WHR Kevin Holland 1861.22 +17.34 52.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roman Dolidze 98, Kevin Holland 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#12] Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0, -190) vs. [#16] Stephen Thompson (17-7-1, +157)
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#77WW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-9-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#18WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-10-07: W vs. [#58WW] Alex Morono (24-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (1-2-0)
2023-12-16: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:56 of round 2
2022-12-03: W vs. [#16MW] Kevin Holland (26-11-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 4
2021-12-18: L vs. [#1WW/#8DD/#5P4P] Belal Muhammad (24-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joaquin Buckley -190 62.74%
Elo K170 Joaquin Buckley 2006.67 +43.38 56.21%
Elo Modified Joaquin Buckley 1975.82 +41.52 55.95%
Glicko-1 Joaquin Buckley 2070.81 +71.51 60.15%
WHR Stephen Thompson 1897.82 +30.34 54.35%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 147, Stephen Thompson 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stephen Thompson leads 2-1
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#8] Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2, +145) vs. [#13] Iasmin Lucindo (16-5-0, -177)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#10FLY] Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-23: W vs. [*] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-13-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:42 of round 2
2023-05-06: L vs. [#2SW/#6DD/#6P4P] Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Iasmin Lucindo (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#32SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#69SW] Polyana Viana (13-7-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-04-22: W vs. [*] Brogan Walker (7-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Iasmin Lucindo -177 61.01%
Elo K170 Iasmin Lucindo 1590.83 +18.45 52.65%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1633.70 +50.27 57.18%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1637.18 +54.22 57.74%
WHR Marina Rodriguez 1591.49 +100.44 64.07%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 175, Iasmin Lucindo 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#69] Ihor Potieria (25-6-0, +296) vs. [#98] Cesar Almeida (5-1-0, -395)

Last 3 Fights: Ihor Potieria (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#17MW] Michel Pereira (32-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:54 of round 1
2024-02-10: W vs. [#105MW] Robert Bryczek (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-12-02: L vs. [#61LHW] Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Cesar Almeida (2-1-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#52MW] Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#161MW] Dylan Budka (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 2
2023-08-08: W vs. [#140MW] Lucas Fernando (11-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Cesar Almeida -395 75.96%
Elo K170 Ihor Potieria 1561.26 +151.47 70.52%
Elo Modified Ihor Potieria 1573.07 +46.54 56.66%
Glicko-1 Ihor Potieria 1595.70 +41.79 55.98%
WHR Cesar Almeida 1617.79 +105.23 64.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ihor Potieria 154, Cesar Almeida 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#97] Alexander Hernandez (14-8-0, -220) vs. [#143] Austin Hubbard (16-7-0, +185)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2024-04-06: L vs. [#49FW] Damon Jackson (23-7-1) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#81FW] Bill Algeo (18-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#63LW] Jim Miller (37-18-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Austin Hubbard (2-1-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#359LW] Michal Figlak (8-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#106LW] Kurt Holobaugh (21-8-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:39 of round 2
2022-10-14: W vs. [#761LW] Kegan Agnew (5-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Hernandez -220 66.20%
Elo K170 Austin Hubbard 1700.39 +157.56 71.24%
Elo Modified Austin Hubbard 1683.60 +72.86 60.34%
Glicko-1 Alexander Hernandez 1685.11 +8.59 51.23%
WHR Austin Hubbard 1565.91 +6.03 50.87%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Hernandez 182, Austin Hubbard 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0, +144) vs. [#15] Tecia Pennington (13-7-0, -175)
Carla Esparza is the All-Time #21 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carla Esparza (2-1-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (25-3-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 2
2022-05-07: W vs. [#4FLY/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (13-6-0) via SD (47-48, 47-48, 49-46)
2021-05-22: W vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#10P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tecia Pennington (1-2-0)
2024-05-11: L vs. [#7SW] Tabatha Ricci (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#6SW] Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-08-07: W vs. [#9SW] Angela Hill (17-14-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tecia Pennington -175 60.82%
Elo K170 Carla Esparza 1858.98 +422.42 91.92%
Elo Modified Carla Esparza 1734.30 +168.20 72.47%
Glicko-1 Carla Esparza 1695.40 +82.86 61.70%
WHR Carla Esparza 1665.61 +85.89 62.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carla Esparza 693, Tecia Pennington 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carla Esparza leads 7-5
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#23] Ryan Spann (21-10-0, -346) vs. [#35] Ovince St. Preux (27-17-0, +270)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #50 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (0-3-0)
2024-04-27: L vs. [#19LHW] Bogdan Guskov (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:16 of round 2
2023-08-26: L vs. [#16LHW] Anthony Smith (38-20-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-11: L vs. [*] Nikita Krylov (30-9-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (2-1-0)
2024-03-16: W vs. [#36LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#17LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Spann -346 74.16%
Elo K170 Ovince St. Preux 1637.63 +19.38 52.79%
Elo Modified Ryan Spann 1675.32 +74.78 60.60%
Glicko-1 Ryan Spann 1743.99 +150.07 70.35%
WHR Ryan Spann 1630.55 +68.81 59.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 161, Ovince St. Preux 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#49] Tim Means (33-16-1, -232) vs. [#118] Court McGee (21-13-0, +189)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Means (1-2-0)
2024-04-27: L vs. [#41WW] Uros Medic (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2023-09-23: W vs. [#116WW] Andre Fialho (16-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:15 of round 3
2023-05-13: L vs. [#58WW] Alex Morono (24-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:09 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Court McGee (0-3-0)
2024-04-06: L vs. [#58WW] Alex Morono (24-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-05-13: L vs. [*] Matt Brown (24-19-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:09 of round 1
2022-06-18: L vs. [#63WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:34 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tim Means -232 66.88%
Elo K170 Tim Means 1550.78 +98.77 63.84%
Elo Modified Tim Means 1613.91 +113.71 65.80%
Glicko-1 Tim Means 1653.68 +140.62 69.20%
WHR Tim Means 1532.25 +92.43 63.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Means 161, Court McGee 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Tim Means leads 3-2
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alex Pereira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2024-9-29

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