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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje (06-13-2026)

Posted on June 8, 2026 by Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#2P4P][#7DD][#1][#1UFC] Ilia Topuria (17-0-0, -604) vs. [#4][#4UFC] Justin Gaethje (27-5-0, +434)
Ilia Topuria is the All-Time #30 ranked Lightweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #45 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2025-06-28: W vs. [#8DD][#2LW] Charles Oliveira (37-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 1
2024-10-26: W vs. [#5LW] Max Holloway (27-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 3
2024-02-17: W vs. [#4DD][#9P4P][#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (28-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:32 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0)
2026-01-24: W vs. [#10LW] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2025-03-08: W vs. [#14LW] Rafael Fiziev (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#5LW] Max Holloway (27-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:59 of round 5

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ilia Topuria -604 82.08%
Elo K170 Ilia Topuria 2409.33 +79.59 61.26%
Elo Modified Ilia Topuria 2359.09 +81.96 61.58%
Glicko-1 Ilia Topuria 2486.92 +150.97 70.46%
WHR Ilia Topuria 2373.04 +324.65 86.63%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Ilia Topuria 29.4, Justin Gaethje 37.6
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 351, Justin Gaethje 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ilia Topuria leads 2-0
.

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#7P4P][#9DD][#1LHW][#1LHWUFC] Alex Pereira (13-3-0, -107) vs. [#1][#1UFC] Ciryl Gane (13-2-0, -113)
Alex Pereira is the All-Time #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Ciryl Gane is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0)
2025-10-04: W vs. [#2LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:20 of round 1
2025-03-08: L vs. [#2LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2024-10-05: W vs. [#7LHW] Khalil Rountree (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Ciryl Gane (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2025-10-25: NC vs. [#2HW+] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0)
2024-12-07: W vs. [#3HW+] Alexander Volkov (40-11-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#12HW+] Serghei Spivac (18-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ciryl Gane -113 50.64%
Elo K170 Alex Pereira 2312.00 +100.08 64.02%
Elo Modified Alex Pereira 2278.87 +128.91 67.75%
Glicko-1 Alex Pereira 2423.69 +199.43 75.91%
WHR Alex Pereira 2143.73 +111.73 65.55%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Alex Pereira 38.9, Ciryl Gane 36.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 253, Ciryl Gane 232
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#3][#3UFC] Sean OMalley (19-3-0, -406) vs. [#8][#8UFC] Aiemann Zahabi (14-2-0, +307)
Sean OMalley is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (1-2-0)
2026-01-24: W vs. [#6BW] Yadong Song (23-10-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2025-06-07: L vs. [#3DD][#8P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via Submission (North-South Choke) in 4:42 of round 3
2024-09-14: L vs. [#3DD][#8P4P][#2BW] Merab Dvalishvili (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Aiemann Zahabi (3-0-0)
2025-10-18: W vs. [#14BW] Marlon Vera (24-12-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2025-05-10: W vs. [*] Jose Aldo (32-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2024-11-02: W vs. [*] Pedro Munhoz (20-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -406 76.55%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 2165.82 +139.66 69.08%
Elo Modified Sean OMalley 2114.74 +167.39 72.39%
Glicko-1 Sean OMalley 2187.99 +187.37 74.62%
WHR Sean OMalley 1997.97 +175.52 73.31%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Sean OMalley 31.6, Aiemann Zahabi 38.5
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 141, Aiemann Zahabi 239
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#10][#8UFC] Josh Hokit (9-0-0, -343) vs. [#18][#11UFC] Derrick Lewis (29-13-0, +269)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #28 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Josh Hokit (3-0-0)
2026-04-11: W vs. [#11HW+] Curtis Blaydes (19-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2026-01-24: W vs. [#158HW+] Denzel Freeman (7-2-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 4:59 of round 1
2025-11-08: W vs. [#334HW+] Max Gimenis (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (2-1-0)
2026-01-24: L vs. [#8HW+] Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:14 of round 2
2025-07-12: W vs. [#21HW+] Tallison Teixeira (9-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1
2024-05-11: W vs. [#36HW+] Rodrigo Nascimento (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Josh Hokit -343 74.07%
Elo K170 Derrick Lewis 1804.90 +97.37 63.66%
Elo Modified Derrick Lewis 1801.86 +78.56 61.12%
Glicko-1 Derrick Lewis 1867.07 +73.53 60.43%
WHR Derrick Lewis 1701.47 +57.76 58.24%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Josh Hokit 28.6, Derrick Lewis 41.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Hokit 64, Derrick Lewis 141
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12][#11UFC] Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0, -722) vs. [#30][#19UFC] Michael Chandler (23-10-0, +488)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (2-1-0)
2026-01-31: W vs. [#14LW] Rafael Fiziev (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:30 of round 2
2025-09-06: L vs. [#7LW] Benoit St. Denis (17-3-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 2:56 of round 2
2025-03-08: W vs. [#42LW] King Green (35-17-1) via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick) in 2:07 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (0-3-0)
2025-04-12: L vs. [#10LW] Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:07 of round 3
2024-11-16: L vs. [#8DD][#2LW] Charles Oliveira (37-11-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
2022-11-12: L vs. [*] Dustin Poirier (30-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mauricio Ruffy -722 83.77%
Elo K170 Michael Chandler 1939.38 +54.02 57.71%
Elo Modified Michael Chandler 1920.94 +50.24 57.18%
Glicko-1 Michael Chandler 1970.11 +11.66 51.68%
WHR Mauricio Ruffy 1874.06 +107.01 64.93%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Mauricio Ruffy 30.0, Michael Chandler 40.1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Ruffy 134, Michael Chandler 428
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#32][#24UFC] Bo Nickal (8-1-0, -352) vs. [#40][#28UFC] Kyle Daukaus (17-4-0, +269)

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (2-1-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#81MW] Rodolfo Vieira (11-5-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:24 of round 3
2025-05-03: L vs. [#15MW] Reinier de Ridder (21-4-0) via TKO (Knees) in 1:53 of round 2
2024-11-16: W vs. [*] Paul Craig (17-10-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (3-0-0)
2025-11-15: W vs. [#68MW] Gerald Meerschaert (37-22-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:50 of round 1
2025-08-23: W vs. [#73MW] Michel Pereira (33-14-0) via KO (Punches and Elbows) in 0:43 of round 1
2024-06-14: W vs. [#247MW] Keanan Patershuk (7-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:24 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bo Nickal -352 74.18%
Elo K170 Kyle Daukaus 1781.19 +30.49 54.38%
Elo Modified Kyle Daukaus 1808.21 +26.09 53.75%
Glicko-1 Kyle Daukaus 1871.64 +87.25 62.30%
WHR Kyle Daukaus 1772.24 +99.53 63.94%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Bo Nickal 30.4, Kyle Daukaus 33.3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bo Nickal 211, Kyle Daukaus 211
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#4][#4UFC] Diego Lopes (27-8-0, -174) vs. [#13][#10UFC] Steve Garcia (19-5-0, +141)
Diego Lopes is the All-Time #31 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Lopes (1-2-0)
2026-01-31: L vs. [#4DD][#9P4P][#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (28-4-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2025-09-13: W vs. [#12FW] Jean Silva (17-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Elbow and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
2025-04-12: L vs. [#4DD][#9P4P][#1FW] Alexander Volkanovski (28-4-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Steve Garcia (3-0-0)
2025-11-01: W vs. [#32FW] David Onama (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 1
2025-07-12: W vs. [#54FW] Calvin Kattar (23-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2024-09-07: W vs. [#85LW] Kyle Nelson (17-7-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:59 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Diego Lopes -174 60.48%
Elo K170 Diego Lopes 2026.82 +39.09 55.60%
Elo Modified Diego Lopes 2012.36 +25.92 53.72%
Glicko-1 Diego Lopes 2085.37 +28.97 54.16%
WHR Diego Lopes 1994.36 +69.05 59.81%

Fighter Ages on Fight Day: Diego Lopes 31.4, Steve Garcia 34.0
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Lopes 134, Steve Garcia 225
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Ilia Topuria
Highest Stored DD Rating: Ilia Topuria
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2026-6-7

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