Welterweight (170)
[#5] Demian Maia (18-4-0, -282) vs. [#9] Jake Shields (28-6-1, +227)
Jake Shields is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#24WW] Jon Fitch (24-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#28WW] Rick Story (15-7-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 2:30 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#15WW] Dong Hyun Kim (17-2-1) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 0:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jake Shields (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-06-15: W vs. [#16WW] Tyron Woodley (11-2-0) via SD (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-11: NC vs. [#40MW] Ed Herman (21-9-0) via NC (Overturned by Commission) in 5:00 of round 3
2012-02-26: W vs. [*] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 249, Jake Shields 116
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#15] Dong Hyun Kim (17-2-1, +210) vs. [#26] Erick Silva (15-3-0, -260)

Last 3 Fights: Dong Hyun Kim (2-1-0)
2013-03-03: W vs. [#27WW] Siyar Bahadurzada (21-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-11-10: W vs. [#56WW] Paulo Thiago (15-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#5WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via TKO (Rib Injury) in 0:47 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Erick Silva (2-1-0)
2013-06-08: W vs. [#33WW] Jason High (17-4-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 1:11 of round 1
2012-10-13: L vs. [#24WW] Jon Fitch (24-6-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#63LW] Charlie Brenneman (18-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:33 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dong Hyun Kim 220, Erick Silva 123
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#19] Thiago Silva (15-3-0, -364) vs. [#22] Matt Hamill (11-4-0, +290)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Silva (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2013-06-08: W vs. [#31LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:29 of round 1
2012-11-10: NC vs. [#103MW] Stanislav Nedkov (12-1-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:45 of round 3
2012-04-14: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Hamill (1-2-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#65LHW] Roger Hollett (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-08-06: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:41 of round 2
2011-05-28: L vs. [#14LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thiago Silva 123, Matt Hamill 382
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#5DD/#2P4P] Jon Jones (18-1-0, -1014) vs. [#6] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0, +622)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #5 ranked Light Heavyweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.
Alexander Gustafsson is the All-Time #20 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#8LHW] Chael Sonnen (28-13-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2012-09-22: W vs. [#3MW] Vitor Belfort (23-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-04-21: W vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (23-3-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Gustafsson (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#19LHW] Thiago Silva (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#30LHW] Vladimir Matyushenko (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:13 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 147, Alexander Gustafsson 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alexander Gustafsson leads 3-2
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#8P4P] Renan Barao (30-1-0, -717) vs. [#8] Eddie Wineland (20-8-1, +491)
Renan Barao is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Eddie Wineland is the All-Time #9 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Renan Barao (3-0-0)
2013-02-16: W vs. [#5BW] Michael McDonald (16-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:57 of round 4
2012-07-21: W vs. [#2BW] Urijah Faber (29-6-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#36BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Wineland (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#21BW] Brad Pickett (23-8-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#36BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 2
2011-08-14: L vs. [#2FLY/#8DD] Joseph Benavidez (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renan Barao 217, Eddie Wineland 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Renan Barao leads 3-2
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Heavyweight (265)
[#21] Brendan Schaub (9-3-0, +107) vs. [#32] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0, -116)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Schaub (1-2-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#42HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#20HW+] Ben Rothwell (33-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2011-08-27: L vs. [#12HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (1-2-0)
2013-04-06: W vs. [#87HW+] Philip De Fries (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 1
2012-12-15: L vs. [#13HW+] Roy Nelson (19-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2011-10-29: L vs. [#23HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-8-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Schaub 210, Matt Mitrione 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0, -113) vs. [#5] Anthony Pettis (16-2-0, +110)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2013-04-20: W vs. [#2LW] Gilbert Melendez (21-3-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#13LW] Nate Diaz (16-9-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#16LW] Donald Cerrone (20-6-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 2:35 of round 1
2012-02-26: W vs. [#33LW] Joe Lauzon (22-9-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#21FW] Jeremy Stephens (21-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 133, Anthony Pettis 217
Previous Match-up Record: Anthony Pettis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Henderson leads 4-2
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Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Frank Mir (16-7-0, +158) vs. [#10] Josh Barnett (32-6-0, -169)
Frank Mir is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Josh Barnett is the All-Time #3 ranked Heavyweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (1-2-0)
2013-04-20: L vs. [#3HW+] Daniel Cormier (12-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#10DD] Junior dos Santos (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#12HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-8-1) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Josh Barnett (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#57HW+] Nandor Guelmino (11-4-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-05-19: L vs. [#3HW+] Daniel Cormier (12-0-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-09-10: W vs. [*] Sergei Kharitonov (20-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:28 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frank Mir 133, Josh Barnett 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Frank Mir leads 3-1
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Featherweight (145)
[#5] Clay Guida (30-13-0, +400) vs. [#6] Chad Mendes (14-1-0, -440)
Chad Mendes is the All-Time #8 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Clay Guida (1-2-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#17FW] Hatsu Hioki (26-7-2) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-06-22: L vs. [#11LW] Gray Maynard (11-2-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Chad Mendes (3-0-0)
2013-04-20: W vs. [#9FW] Darren Elkins (17-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:08 of round 1
2012-12-15: W vs. [#64BW] Yaotzin Meza (20-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:55 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#73FW] Cody McKenzie (14-3-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 0:31 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Clay Guida 217, Chad Mendes 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bryan Stone has another Fight Matrix-fueled preview for the upcoming UFC card. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!

Welterweight (170)
[#7] Carlos Condit (28-7-0, -240) vs. [#8] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0, +216)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Martin Kampmann is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (1-2-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#2WW] Johny Hendricks (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-11-17: L vs. [#1WW/#4DD] Georges St. Pierre (24-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#11WW] Nick Diaz (26-9-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Martin Kampmann (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: L vs. [#2WW] Johny Hendricks (15-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:46 of round 1
2012-06-01: W vs. [#5WW] Jake Ellenberger (29-7-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-03-03: W vs. [*] Thiago Alves (19-9-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 165, Martin Kampmann 284
Previous Match-up Record: Martin Kampmann leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Rafael dos Anjos (19-6-0, +148) vs. [#14] Donald Cerrone (20-5-0, -161)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#23LW] Evan Dunham (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#31LW] Mark Bocek (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#57LW] Anthony Njokuani (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2013-05-25: W vs. [#89LW] K.J. Noons (11-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2013-01-26: L vs. [#5LW] Anthony Pettis (16-2-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 2:35 of round 1
2012-08-11: W vs. [#20LW] Melvin Guillard (31-13-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:16 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 102, Donald Cerrone 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Donald Cerrone leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#65] Brian Melancon (7-2-0, +190) vs. [#202MW] Kelvin Gastelum (6-0-0, -212)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Melancon (2-1-0)
2013-07-06: W vs. [#80WW] Seth Baczynski (18-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-09-23: W vs. [*] Felipe Portela (7-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-06-18: L vs. [#34LW] Isaac Vallie-Flagg (14-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (3-0-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#214MW] Uriah Hall (7-4-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-07-20: W vs. [NA] Mike Ashford (3-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#627LHW] Bill Smallwood (2-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:55 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Melancon 53, Kelvin Gastelum 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0, +120) vs. [#15] Chael Sonnen (27-13-1, -125)
Mauricio Rua is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Rua (1-2-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#36LHW] Brandon Vera (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4
2011-11-19: L vs. [#5LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (1-2-0)
2013-04-27: L vs. [#1LHW/#4DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:33 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [#2MW/#8DD] Anderson Silva (33-5-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#8MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Rua 252, Chael Sonnen 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mauricio Rua leads 2-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#6] Alistair Overeem (36-12-0, -200) vs. [#11] Travis Browne (14-1-1, +190)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #13 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:25 of round 3
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (17-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#18HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:11 of round 1
2012-10-05: L vs. [#4HW+] Antonio Silva (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-04-21: W vs. [#137LHW] Chad Griggs (11-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 196, Travis Browne 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#2] Urijah Faber (28-6-0, -244) vs. [#10] Iuri Alcantara (28-4-0, +230)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #6 ranked Bantamweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (2-1-0)
2013-04-13: W vs. [#31BW] Scott Jorgensen (14-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:16 of round 4
2013-02-23: W vs. [#62BW] Ivan Menjivar (25-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:34 of round 1
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Iuri Alcantara (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#33FLY] Iliarde Santos (27-8-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 1
2013-01-19: NC vs. [#19FLY] Pedro Nobre (15-1-2) via NC (Accidental Foul) in 2:11 of round 1
2012-06-23: L vs. [#28FW] Hacran Dias (21-2-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 126, Iuri Alcantara 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0, -645) vs. [#16] Chan Sung Jung (13-3-0, +530)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (16-4-1) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (14-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#30FW] Dustin Poirier (13-3-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:07 of round 4
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:07 of round 1
2011-03-26: W vs. [#98FW] Leonard Garcia (16-11-1) via Submission (Twister) in 4:59 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 182, Chan Sung Jung 445
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0, -340) vs. [#15] Phil Davis (11-1-0, +306)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#4LHW] Dan Henderson (29-10-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#9LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Phil Davis (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-27: W vs. [#32LHW] Vinny Magalhaes (10-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:29 of round 2
2012-08-04: NC vs. [#233LHW] Wagner Prado (8-2-0) via NC (Accidental Eye Poke) in 1:28 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 161, Phil Davis 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Lyoto Machida leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#265] Cezar Ferreira (5-2-0, -412) vs. [#800WW] Thiago Santos (8-1-0, +328)

Last 3 Fights: Cezar Ferreira (2-1-0)
2012-06-23: W vs. [#436WW] Sergio Moraes (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-08-20: L vs. [#38MW] Elvis Mutapcic (13-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:25 of round 1
2011-04-16: W vs. [*] Chaun Sims (5-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Santos (2-1-0)
2012-07-27: W vs. [NA] Denis Figueira da Silva (1-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-04-28: L vs. [#399MW] Vicente Luque (6-4-1) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#1237WW] Junior Vidal (3-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cezar Ferreira 406, Thiago Santos 372
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

One of our viewers, Bryan Stone has been using our rankings to preview upcoming UFC events. Check out his video below and give him some thumbs up!

Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#9DD] Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1, -438) vs. [#5] John Moraga (13-1-0, +389)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #7 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (3-0-0)
2013-01-26: W vs. [#6FLY] John Dodson (14-6-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2FLY/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (18-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#8FLY] Ian McCall (11-4-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Moraga (3-0-0)
2012-12-29: W vs. [#26FLY] Chris Cariaso (14-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:11 of round 3
2012-08-04: W vs. [#72FLY] Ulysses Gomez (9-4-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#763BW] Jose Carbajal (5-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 182, John Moraga 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Demetrious Johnson leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#3] Jake Ellenberger (29-6-0, +206) vs. [#10] Rory MacDonald (14-1-0, -225)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#20WW] Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) via KO (Punches) in 3:00 of round 1
2012-10-05: W vs. [#34WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#6WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Rory MacDonald (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#23WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#89WW] Che Mills (15-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 2
2011-08-06: W vs. [#13WW] Mike Pyle (25-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 133, Rory MacDonald 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0, -265) vs. [#152] Bobby Voelker (24-9-0, +246)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (2-1-0)
2013-02-23: W vs. [#17WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:57 of round 1
2012-07-14: L vs. [#25MW] Lorenz Larkin (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#45WW] Adlan Amagov (12-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Voelker (2-1-0)
2013-03-16: L vs. [#46WW] Patrick Cote (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:16 of round 2
2010-10-22: W vs. [#259LW] Roger Bowling (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:58 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robbie Lawler 154, Bobby Voelker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#1DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0, 145.0lb, +650) vs. [#2] Cristiane Justino (11-1-0, 144.9lb, -675)
Marloes Coenen is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marloes Coenen (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-04-28: W vs. [#7FW] Romy Ruyssen (5-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2011-07-30: L vs. [#6BW] Miesha Tate (13-4-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:03 of round 4

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#18FW] Fiona Muxlow (6-3-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:46 of round 1
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#8FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marloes Coenen 194, Cristiane Justino 99
Previous Match-up Record: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marloes Coenen leads 4-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#2/#5DD] Ayaka Hamasaki (9-0-0, 115.3lb, +144) vs. [#8] Claudia Gadelha (10-0-0, 114.5lb, -140)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #19 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#12SW] Emi Fujino (12-6-0) via UD ()
2012-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Lacey Schuckman (9-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:45 of round 3
2012-05-26: W vs. [#15SW] Yuka Tsuji (24-3-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:41 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Claudia Gadelha (3-0-0)
2013-05-11: W vs. [#41SW] Herica Tiburcio (5-2-0) via UD ()
2012-09-21: W vs. [#54FLY] Adriana Vieira (1-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:35 of round 1
2012-04-20: W vs. [#31BW] Valerie Letourneau (4-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 210, Claudia Gadelha 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0, 134.8lb, -145) vs. [#11] Lauren Taylor (6-0-0, 134.8lb, +146)

Last 3 Fights: Sarah DAlelio (2-1-0)
2013-01-05: W vs. [#19BW] Amanda Nunes (7-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
2012-10-06: L vs. [#10BW] Shayna Baszler (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:37 of round 2
2012-07-28: W vs. [#3FLY] Vanessa Porto (15-6-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Taylor (3-0-0)
2013-04-05: W vs. [#25BW] Kaitlin Young (7-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-03-01: W vs. [NA] Jennifer Scott (2-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:10 of round 1
2011-10-28: W vs. [NA] Julia Griffin (2-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah DAlelio 189, Lauren Taylor 99
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#2DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0, -244) vs. [#3] Chris Weidman (9-0-0, +196)
Anderson Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Middleweight and #1 ranked Absolute fighter.
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anderson Silva (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [*] Stephan Bonnar (15-8-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1
2012-07-07: W vs. [#14LHW] Chael Sonnen (27-13-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2011-08-27: W vs. [#4MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#14MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:37 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#4WW] Demian Maia (18-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#35MW] Tom Lawlor (9-5-0) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:07 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anderson Silva 266, Chris Weidman 360
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#2] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1, -580) vs. [#33] Charles Oliveira (16-3-0, +414)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #19 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (0-3-0)
2013-02-02: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Jose Aldo (22-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2012-08-11: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (19-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#7FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:40 of round 1
2012-06-01: W vs. [#99FW] Jonathan Brookins (13-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#148LW] Eric Wisely (21-8-0) via Submission (Calf Slicer) in 1:43 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 154, Charles Oliveira 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Frankie Edgar leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#12] Roger Gracie (6-1-0, +122) vs. [#20] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0, -149)

Last 3 Fights: Roger Gracie (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#64MW] Anthony Smith (17-10-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2
2012-07-14: W vs. [#53MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via UD (29-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2011-09-10: L vs. [#22LHW] Muhammed Lawal (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tim Kennedy (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#102MW] Trevor Smith (10-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:36 of round 3
2012-07-14: L vs. [#7MW] Luke Rockhold (10-2-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-30: W vs. [#11WW] Robbie Lawler (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roger Gracie 175, Tim Kennedy 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jimmo, Nelson

Underdogs to consider:

• Sexton over Davis – Davis holds the stark hometown advantage, but seems to be too large of a favorite.
  
• Jordan over Barry – A slight disagreement between odds and ratings that makes this worthy of a small bet.
• Henderson over Evans – See above.