Middleweight (185)
[#2] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0, -100) vs. [#4] Luke Rockhold (10-1-0, -124)
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #22 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2013-01-19: W vs. [#7MW] Michael Bisping (24-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#5DD] Jon Jones (18-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#14LHW] Anthony Johnson (15-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#19MW] Tim Kennedy (15-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-07: W vs. [#54MW] Keith Jardine (17-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:26 of round 1
2011-09-10: W vs. [#9MW] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Luke Rockhold 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#9] Ronaldo Souza (17-3-0, -547) vs. [#30] Chris Camozzi (19-5-0, +402)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#37MW] Ed Herman (20-9-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:10 of round 1
2012-08-18: W vs. [#25MW] Derek Brunson (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#145MW] Bristol Marunde (12-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:43 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chris Camozzi (3-0-0)
2013-03-16: W vs. [#33MW] Nick Ring (13-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#134MW] Luiz Cane (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-22: W vs. [#342WW] Nick Catone (9-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:51 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 126, Chris Camozzi 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#12] Rafael dos Anjos (18-6-0, -191) vs. [#21] Evan Dunham (14-3-0, +160)

Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#27LW] Mark Bocek (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-11: W vs. [#57LW] Anthony Njokuani (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#169LW] Kamal Shalorus (7-3-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Evan Dunham (2-1-0)
2013-02-02: W vs. [#22LW] Gleison Tibau (26-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#8LW] T.J. Grant (20-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10FW] Nik Lentz (23-5-2) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 182, Evan Dunham 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Evan Dunham leads 2-0
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Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity or short-notice.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.  I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Head, Jones

Underdogs to consider:

• Villante over St. Preux – Villante has been successful since his drop to 205.  A small bet may be warranted..
• McKenzie over Garcia – The mere fact that Garcia is involved makes me leery to even make note of this bout.  Tread carefully.
• Belcher over Bisping – The fringe contenders at Middleweight are constantly bouncing around due to the congestion and matchmaking.  Still, Belcher seems to be an OK bet.
• Healy over Miller – The system continues its somewhat odd Lightweight love affair with Healy, after breaking up with Brian Cobb.  Will this love stand the test?
• Kongo over Nelson – Due to the stylistic difference which I do not consider in these posts, another potential bet that is clouded with subjective doubt.

Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#5DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0, -866) vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, +599)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #3 ranked Light Heavyweight and #13 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-04-21: W vs. [#6LHW] Rashad Evans (22-3-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#2LHW] Lyoto Machida (19-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Chael Sonnen (2-1-0)
2012-07-07: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (33-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 1:55 of round 2
2012-01-28: W vs. [#11MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 217, Chael Sonnen 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#11] Michael Bisping (23-5-0, -167) vs. [#17] Alan Belcher (18-7-0, +141)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #19 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (1-2-0)
2013-01-19: L vs. [#2MW] Vitor Belfort (22-10-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2
2012-09-22: W vs. [#18MW] Brian Stann (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#3MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alan Belcher (2-1-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#6MW] Yushin Okami (29-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27MW] Rousimar Palhares (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:18 of round 1
2011-09-17: W vs. [*] Jason MacDonald (25-16-0) via Submission (Punches) in 3:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Bisping 98, Alan Belcher 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Bisping leads 3-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#12] Roy Nelson (18-7-0, -233) vs. [#16] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, +190)

Last 3 Fights: Roy Nelson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2012-05-26: W vs. [#63HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:51 of round 1
2012-02-04: L vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Cheick Kongo (2-1-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#27HW+] Shawn Jordan (14-4-0) via UD (30-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (9-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-10-29: W vs. [#31HW+] Matt Mitrione (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roy Nelson 133, Cheick Kongo 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

It has been about 7 months since we made a bet in the “Gambling Analysis” series, so I thought it was a good time to pull it out of retirement.  Although similar to the “Ratings vs. Odds” series, in this post we use the ratings more as a supporting factor rather than a guiding factor.

I am usually against betting on huge favorites, but I don’t think you can go wrong on Jones @ -857 (the current meta-average).  He projects at somewhere around -1100 and I can see Sonnen plodding around the octagon, until he gets stopped late in the 2nd with a barrage of strikes.   There is a chance that the return to 205 makes Sonnen a better fighter, but I just don’t see him being able to take Jones out.

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For a reference, here are the details for our past picks:

• UFC 128 – Jon Jones vs Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua: Jones @ -210
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2/3) | Actual: TKO (Rd 3)
• UFC 129 – Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields: St. Pierre @ -450
  • Predicted Outcome: Wide Unanimous Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 129 – Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture: Machida @ -350
  • No Outcome Predicted
• UFC 130 – Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson: Mir @ -125
  • Predicted Outcome: Split Decision | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• StrikeForce – Chad Griggs vs Valentijn Overeem: Griggs @ -110
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO | Actual: TKO
• StrikeForce – Justin Wilcox vs Gesias Calvancante: Wilcox @ +130
  • No Contest
• UFC on FX – Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard: Miller @ -213
  • Predicted Outcome: Submission (Rd 2) | Actual: Submission (Rd 1)
• UFC on Fuel TV – Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman: Herman @ -140
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 1) | Actual: TKO (Rd 2)
• UFC on Fuel TV 2 – Alexander Gustaffson vs Thiago Silva: Gustaffson @ -225
  • No Outcome Predicted
• Strikeforce GP Final – Daniel Cormier vs. Josh Barnett: Cormier @ -105
  • Predicted Outcome: KO/TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Unanimous Decision
• UFC 152 – Joseph Benavidez vs. Demetrious Johnson: Benavidez @ -290
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 3) | Actual: Split Decision Loss
• UFC 159 – Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen: Jones @ -857
  • Predicted Outcome: TKO (Rd 2) | Actual:

If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $255.95.  If you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have more profit.  We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t count them.

Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging or overturned decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Jury

Underdogs to consider:

• Elkins over Mendes: I partially blame this on poor recent matchmaking for Mendes.  Two squash matches did nothing for his rating.  Even still, At such ridiculous odds, Elkins is worth a bet.
• Viana over Dillashaw: Viana has a real shot at winning this one.  An attractive underdog bet.

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0, -281) vs. [#2] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0, +227)
Ben Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #4 ranked Lightweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Henderson (3-0-0)
2012-12-08: W vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#2FW] Frankie Edgar (15-4-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (3-0-0)
2012-05-19: W vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (19-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-12-17: W vs. [#20LW] Jorge Masvidal (23-7-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Henderson 133, Gilbert Melendez 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0, -426) vs. [#7] Frank Mir (16-6-0, +328)
Daniel Cormier is the All-Time #24 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Frank Mir is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#139LHW] Dion Staring (28-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:02 of round 2
2012-05-19: W vs. [#10HW+] Josh Barnett (32-6-0) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-09-10: W vs. [#3HW+] Antonio Silva (18-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Frank Mir (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Junior dos Santos (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-12-10: W vs. [#9HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-7-1) via Technical Submission (Kimura) in 3:38 of round 1
2011-05-28: W vs. [#12HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Daniel Cormier 98, Frank Mir 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#6] Nate Diaz (16-8-0, -201) vs. [#16] Josh Thomson (19-5-0, +166)
Nate Diaz is the All-Time #23 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-12-08: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-43)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#11LW] Jim Miller (22-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [#15LW] Donald Cerrone (19-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Thomson (1-2-0)
2012-05-19: L vs. [#2LW] Gilbert Melendez (21-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#87LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-12-31: L vs. [#8FW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (32-7-2) via UD ()

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nate Diaz 133, Josh Thomson 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Josh Thomson leads 1-0
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Keep Reading

Women Atomweight Championship (105)
[#1/#4DD] Jessica Penne (10-1-0, 104.9lb, -526) vs. [#7] Michelle Waterson (10-3-0, 104.7lb, +373)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#6AW] Naho Sugiyama (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:20 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [#4AW] Lisa Ellis (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2010-11-19: W vs. [#23AW] Amy Davis (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#8AW] Lacey Schuckman (8-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-01-21: W vs. [#11AW] Diana Rael (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2010-04-24: W vs. [NA] Masako Yoshida (16-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 181, Michelle Waterson 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Penne leads 1-0
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#3/#9DD] Barb Honchak (7-2-0, 124.6lb, -132) vs. [#4] Vanessa Porto (15-5-0, 124.8lb, -102)

Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#19FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#33FLY] Bethany Marshall (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (2-1-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Tara LaRosa (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: L vs. [#10BW] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [NA] Luana Teixeira (1-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Barb Honchak 181, Vanessa Porto 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 1-0
.

Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cristiane Justino (10-1-0, 144.8lb, -2585) vs. [#13] Fiona Muxlow (6-2-0, 143.8lb, +1343)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#10FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
2010-01-30: W vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Fiona Muxlow (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-10-27: W vs. [NA] Leanne Reid (0-1-0) via UD ()
2011-06-25: W vs. [NA] Deney Hayward (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 475, Fiona Muxlow 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Gegard Mousasi (33-3-2, -1190) vs. [#33] Ilir Latifi (7-2-0, +664)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Mike Kyle (19-9-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [#43LHW] Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-16: W vs. [*] Hiroshi Izumi (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#141LHW] Jorge Oliveira (5-3-1) via UD ()
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39LHW] Tony Lopez (32-10-0) via UD ()
2012-03-23: W vs. [NA] Denis Bogdanov (0-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in ? of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 84, Ilir Latifi 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#44] Ross Pearson (14-6-0, -402) vs. [#53] Ryan Couture (6-1-0, +314)

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#123LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 3
2012-06-22: L vs. [#6FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Couture (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#56LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#210LW] Joe Duarte (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#212LW] Conor Heun (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:52 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ross Pearson 112, Ryan Couture 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#34] Matt Mitrione (5-2-0, -328) vs. [#75] Philip De Fries (9-2-0, +261)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (1-2-0)
2012-12-15: L vs. [#11HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2011-10-29: L vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#157HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philip De Fries (1-2-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
2012-08-04: W vs. [#247HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:16 of round 2
2012-02-15: L vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Mitrione 112, Philip De Fries 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.
Keep Reading

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Dillashaw, Hendricks and St. Pierre.

Underdogs to consider:

Mulhern over Story – Story is way too large of a favorite, so Mulhern is worth a shot in the dark.
Makdessi over Cruickshank – A tight matchup, in which the rating system favors Makdessi, who also has the home advantage.
Fletcher over Ricci –  A 50/50 matchup, but one that seems way too slanted in favor of Ricci in terms of odds.
Roop over Duran – Roop is a BIG ratings favorite, which usually means the gamblers are on to something.  Tread carefully.

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks.

Favorites to consider: Marcello.  I almost went with a PASS here, due to the home advantage — but Marcello projects to a slightly larger favorite than the odds suggest.  Narrow bet here.

Underdogs to consider:

Hunt over Struve – Very nearly a pass.  I am banking on Hunt’s relative home advantage, given his career in Japan and familiarity with east Asia to make him just barely worth a bet.
Caraway over Mizugaki – See above, but basically in reverse.  Mizugaki seems like the guy to go with, but I cannot ignore the rating vs. odds difference.
Okami over Lombard – Okami and our rating system have had their tough times, but we like him here, especially given the location.
Guimaraes over Gyu Lim – Guimaraes projects as one of the strongest underdog bets in this series, so far– if you ignore the fact that his last fight could have went either way.  Still, this seems like a 50/50.
Badhadurzada over Hyun Kim – The system has been big on Siyar for a long time now.  Come and ride the train.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) vs. [#25MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1)
Wanderlei Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Light Heavyweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (1-2-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#12MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#82MW] Alessio Sakara (15-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Wanderlei Silva (1-2-0)
2012-06-23: L vs. [#21MW] Rich Franklin (29-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#17MW] Cung Le (9-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2011-07-02: L vs. [#30MW] Chris Leben (22-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 162, Wanderlei Silva 253
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) vs. [#12] Mark Hunt (8-7-0)
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #22 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (3-0-0)
2012-09-29: W vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1
2012-02-15: W vs. [#52HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (3-0-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2011-02-27: W vs. [*] Chris Tuchscherer (21-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 155, Mark Hunt 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stefan Struve leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#23WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) vs. [#28] Takanori Gomi (34-8-0)
Takanori Gomi is the All-Time #1 ranked Lightweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (2-1-0)
2012-02-15: L vs. [#6WW] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-03-03: W vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-23: W vs. [#64WW] Paulo Thiago (14-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Takanori Gomi (2-1-0)
2012-11-10: W vs. [#43LW] Mac Danzig (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#241FW] Eiji Mitsuoka (18-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:21 of round 2
2011-09-24: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Sanchez 382, Takanori Gomi 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Diego Sanchez leads 2-0
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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds.  Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

1. System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
2. System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
3. Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
4. Notable home advantage.
5. System inability to project style differences.
6. System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense.  We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t.  For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant.  Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money.  So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks.

Favorites to consider: Faber is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that.

Underdogs to consider:

Stout over Fodor – 50/50 per the odds, so Stout serves as a minimally good value.
Robertson over Jardine – A fairly strong disagreement between ratings and odds.  Fairly good value on Robertson.
Grice over Bermudez – A huge divide between the rating difference and the odds.  It is quite rare to see this without any major “gotchas”.

Women Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#1DD] Ronda Rousey (6-0-0) vs. [#8] Liz Carmouche (7-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ronda Rousey (3-0-0)
2012-08-18: W vs. [#3BW] Sarah Kaufman (15-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:54 of round 1
2012-03-03: W vs. [#2BW] Miesha Tate (13-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1
2011-11-18: W vs. [#6FW] Julia Budd (4-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 0:39 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Liz Carmouche (2-1-0)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#19BW] Kaitlin Young (7-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:34 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [NA] Ashleigh Curry (1-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2011-07-22: L vs. [#3BW] Sarah Kaufman (15-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronda Rousey 189, Liz Carmouche 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ronda Rousey leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#2] Lyoto Machida (18-3-0) vs. [*] Dan Henderson (29-8-0)
Lyoto Machida is the All-Time #7 ranked Light Heavyweight and #18 ranked Absolute fighter.
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #7 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Lyoto Machida (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:32 of round 2
2011-12-10: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2011-04-30: W vs. [*] Randy Couture (19-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 1:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (3-0-0)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#6LHW] Mauricio Rua (21-7-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2011-07-30: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
2011-03-05: W vs. [#18LHW] Rafael Cavalcante (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lyoto Machida 203, Dan Henderson 462
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#4] Urijah Faber (26-6-0) vs. [#52] Ivan Menjivar (25-9-0)
Urijah Faber is the All-Time #21 ranked Bantamweight and #9 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Urijah Faber (1-2-0)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#1BW/#10DD] Renan Barao (30-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [*] Brian Bowles (10-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:27 of round 2
2011-07-02: L vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Ivan Menjivar (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#585BW] Azamat Gashimov (9-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:44 of round 1
2012-07-07: L vs. [#35BW] Mike Easton (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2012-02-15: W vs. [#199BW] John Albert (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:45 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Urijah Faber 217, Ivan Menjivar 98
Previous Match-up Record: Urijah Faber leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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