Fight Matrix Program – UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic (11-16-2024)

Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Jon Jones (27-1-0, -687) vs. [*] Stipe Miocic (20-4-0, +465)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #31 ranked Heavyweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Stipe Miocic is the All-Time #2 ranked Heavyweight and #16 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2023-03-04: W vs. [#3HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:04 of round 1
2020-02-08: W vs. [#10LHW] Dominick Reyes (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#34HW+] Thiago Santos (22-13-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: L vs. [#2HW+/#9P4P] Francis Ngannou (18-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:52 of round 2
2020-08-15: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-08-17: W vs. [*] Daniel Cormier (22-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:09 of round 4

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jon Jones	-687		83.14%
Elo K170	Jon Jones	2462.88	+195.16	75.46%
Elo Modified	Jon Jones	2399.49	+154.72	70.90%
Glicko-1	Jon Jones	2500.75	+150.06	70.34%
WHR	Jon Jones	2262.89	+141.53	69.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 623, Stipe Miocic 1330
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stipe Miocic leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#3] Charles Oliveira (34-10-0, -254) vs. [*] Michael Chandler (23-8-0, +205)
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #7 ranked Lightweight and #36 ranked Absolute fighter.
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #18 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (1-2-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#2LW] Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#12LW] Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2022-10-22: L vs. [#1LW/#2DD/#1P4P] Islam Makhachev (26-1-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (1-2-0)
2022-11-12: L vs. [#6LW] Dustin Poirier (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 3
2022-05-07: W vs. [#107WW] Tony Ferguson (25-11-0) via KO (Front Kick) in 0:17 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#5LW] Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Charles Oliveira	-254		68.63%
Elo K170	Charles Oliveira	2263.99	+192.02	75.13%
Elo Modified	Charles Oliveira	2274.77	+241.48	80.06%
Glicko-1	Charles Oliveira	2383.15	+289.98	84.15%
WHR	Charles Oliveira	2180.90	+312.77	85.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Oliveira 217, Michael Chandler 735
Previous Match-up Record: Charles Oliveira leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Charles Oliveira leads 4-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#23] Paul Craig (17-8-1, +672) vs. [#65] Bo Nickal (6-0-0, -1136)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#8MW] Caio Borralho (17-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2
2023-11-18: L vs. [#11MW] Brendan Allen (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-07-22: W vs. [#24MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:40 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
2024-04-13: W vs. [#93MW] Cody Brundage (10-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2023-07-08: W vs. [#495WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2023-03-04: W vs. [#207MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 2:54 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Bo Nickal	-1136		87.65%
Elo K170	Paul Craig	1740.81	+161.64	71.72%
Elo Modified	Paul Craig	1762.82	+102.02	64.28%
Glicko-1	Paul Craig	1786.76	+177.19	73.50%
WHR	Paul Craig	1723.30	+224.91	78.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 196, Bo Nickal 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#11] Karine Silva (18-4-0, -283) vs. [#13] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0, +225)

Last 3 Fights: Karine Silva (3-0-0)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#23FLY] Ariane Lipski (17-10-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-08-19: W vs. [#35FLY] Maryna Moroz (11-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:59 of round 1
2023-06-03: W vs. [#18SW] Ketlen Souza (15-4-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 1:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Viviane Araujo (1-2-0)
2024-02-03: L vs. [#8FLY] Natalia Silva (18-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#9BW] Jennifer Maia (22-10-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-03-04: L vs. [#12FLY] Amanda Ribas (13-5-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Karine Silva	-283		70.60%
Elo K170	Karine Silva	1743.32	+200.86	76.06%
Elo Modified	Karine Silva	1744.90	+167.54	72.40%
Glicko-1	Karine Silva	1803.03	+224.47	78.45%
WHR	Karine Silva	1706.30	+168.35	72.50%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karine Silva 203, Viviane Araujo 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#90] Mauricio Ruffy (10-1-0, -837) vs. [#289] James Llontop (14-4-0, +532)

Last 3 Fights: Mauricio Ruffy (3-0-0)
2024-05-04: W vs. [#163LW] Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 1
2023-10-03: W vs. [#211WW] Raimond Magomedaliev (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 3
2023-05-26: W vs. [#313WW] Ronys Torres (43-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: James Llontop (1-2-0)
2024-08-24: L vs. [#199LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-04-27: L vs. [#101LW] Chris Padilla (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:33 of round 1
2023-09-12: W vs. [#346LW] Malik Lewis (7-2-0) via UD ()

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mauricio Ruffy	-837		84.95%
Elo K170	Mauricio Ruffy	1672.80	+273.19	82.82%
Elo Modified	Mauricio Ruffy	1661.33	+173.75	73.11%
Glicko-1	Mauricio Ruffy	1736.13	+224.99	78.50%
WHR	Mauricio Ruffy	1747.74	+298.04	84.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mauricio Ruffy 196, James Llontop 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#16] Jonathan Martinez (19-5-0, +111) vs. [#131] Marcus McGhee (9-1-0, -134)

Last 3 Fights: Jonathan Martinez (2-1-0)
2024-05-04: L vs. [#11BW] Jose Aldo (32-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#94BW] Adrian Yanez (17-5-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:26 of round 2
2023-03-11: W vs. [#23BW] Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marcus McGhee (3-0-0)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#221BW] Gaston Bolanos (8-4-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:29 of round 3
2023-08-12: W vs. [*] J.P. Buys (9-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:19 of round 1
2023-04-29: W vs. [*] Journey Newson (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:03 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Marcus McGhee	-134		54.71%
Elo K170	Jonathan Martinez	1913.47	+381.35	89.98%
Elo Modified	Jonathan Martinez	1907.65	+355.01	88.53%
Glicko-1	Jonathan Martinez	1957.94	+353.77	88.46%
WHR	Jonathan Martinez	1802.02	+298.00	84.75%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jonathan Martinez 196, Marcus McGhee 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#27] Chris Weidman (16-7-0, +124) vs. [#54] Eryk Anders (16-8-0, -151)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#47MW] Bruno Silva (23-12-0) via TUD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#37MW] Brad Tavares (20-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Uriah Hall (17-11-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:17 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Eryk Anders (2-1-0)
2024-03-02: W vs. [#207MW] Jamie Pickett (13-11-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#49MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#69MW] Kyle Daukaus (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Eryk Anders	-151		57.40%
Elo K170	Chris Weidman	1809.57	+245.64	80.44%
Elo Modified	Chris Weidman	1815.55	+190.56	74.97%
Glicko-1	Chris Weidman	1852.66	+196.25	75.58%
WHR	Chris Weidman	1653.84	+91.20	62.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 231, Eryk Anders 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#63] Jim Miller (37-18-0, +111) vs. [#86] Damon Jackson (23-7-1, -135)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #45 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2024-04-13: L vs. [#27LW] Bobby Green (32-16-1) via UD (29-27, 30-25, 29-26)
2024-01-13: W vs. [#398LW] Gabriel Benitez (23-12-0) via Submission (Face Crank) in 3:25 of round 3
2023-06-03: W vs. [#257BW] Jesse Butler (12-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0)
2024-08-10: L vs. [#31FW] Jose Mariscal (17-6-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
2024-04-06: W vs. [#100LW] Alexander Hernandez (15-8-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#44FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Damon Jackson	-135		54.79%
Elo K170	Jim Miller	1689.56	+29.11	54.18%
Elo Modified	Jim Miller	1688.90	+75.32	60.67%
Glicko-1	Jim Miller	1778.95	+129.28	67.79%
WHR	Jim Miller	1623.52	+36.53	55.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 217, Damon Jackson 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#14] Marcin Tybura (25-9-0, +110) vs. [#58] Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0, -130)

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (1-2-0)
2024-08-10: L vs. [#7HW+] Serghei Spivac (17-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:44 of round 1
2024-03-16: W vs. [#16HW+] Tai Tuivasa (14-8-0) via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:08 of round 1
2023-07-22: L vs. [#1HW+/#8P4P] Tom Aspinall (15-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jhonata Diniz (3-0-0)
2024-08-10: W vs. [#74HW+] Karl Williams (10-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-04-27: W vs. [#137HW+] Austen Lane (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:12 of round 2
2023-09-12: W vs. [#101HW+] Eduardo Neves (8-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Jhonata Diniz	-130		54.27%
Elo K170	Marcin Tybura	1813.31	+199.24	75.90%
Elo Modified	Marcin Tybura	1833.64	+163.28	71.91%
Glicko-1	Marcin Tybura	1857.44	+188.30	74.72%
WHR	Marcin Tybura	1763.87	+205.75	76.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marcin Tybura 98, Jhonata Diniz 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#352] Mickey Gall (7-6-0, -121) vs. [#447] Ramiz Brahimaj (10-5-0, -101)

Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (0-3-0)
2024-06-01: L vs. [#82WW] Bassil Hafez (9-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-09: L vs. [#81WW] Mike Malott (11-2-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2021-12-04: L vs. [#56WW] Alex Morono (24-11-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Ramiz Brahimaj (1-2-0)
2024-05-18: L vs. [#60WW] Themba Gorimbo (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-26: W vs. [*] Micheal Gillmore (6-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1
2022-01-15: L vs. [#52WW] Court McGee (22-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Mickey Gall	-121		52.14%
Elo K170	Ramiz Brahimaj	1338.94	+1.90	50.27%
Elo Modified	Mickey Gall	1389.77	+12.68	51.82%
Glicko-1	Mickey Gall	1411.97	+9.10	51.31%
WHR	Mickey Gall	1399.00	+89.92	62.66%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mickey Gall 168, Ramiz Brahimaj 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#70] Oban Elliott (11-2-0, -201) vs. [#82] Bassil Hafez (9-4-1, +165)

Last 3 Fights: Oban Elliott (3-0-0)
2024-07-27: W vs. [#95WW] Preston Parsons (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2024-02-17: W vs. [#495WW] Valentine Woodburn (7-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-08-22: W vs. [#103WW] Kaik Brito (16-5-0) via MD ()

Last 3 Fights: Bassil Hafez (2-1-0)
2024-06-01: W vs. [#352WW] Mickey Gall (7-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-07-15: L vs. [#7WW] Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#141WW] Evan Cutts (17-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:50 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Oban Elliott	-201		63.89%
Elo K170	Oban Elliott	1698.29	+164.29	72.03%
Elo Modified	Oban Elliott	1699.36	+94.65	63.30%
Glicko-1	Oban Elliott	1695.28	+51.62	57.38%
WHR	Bassil Hafez	1649.60	+48.15	56.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Oban Elliott 112, Bassil Hafez 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#20] Veronica Hardy (9-4-1, -161) vs. [#43] Eduarda Moura (10-1-0, +133)

Last 3 Fights: Veronica Hardy (3-0-0)
2024-05-11: W vs. [#36FLY] J.J. Aldrich (13-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-12-02: W vs. [#33FLY] Jamey-Lyn Horth (7-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2023-03-18: W vs. [*] Juliana Miller (3-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Eduarda Moura (2-1-0)
2024-06-08: L vs. [#14SW] Denise Gomes (10-3-0) via SD (30-27, 30-27, 28-29)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#132SW] Montserrat Ruiz (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 2
2023-08-15: W vs. [*] Janaina Silva (5-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:00 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Veronica Hardy	-161		58.97%
Elo K170	Veronica Hardy	1492.37	+72.27	60.25%
Elo Modified	Eduarda Moura	1491.46	+14.74	52.12%
Glicko-1	Eduarda Moura	1520.85	+80.54	61.39%
WHR	Veronica Hardy	1430.67	+44.58	56.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Veronica Hardy 189, Eduarda Moura 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– Implied probability (odds) listed is not the pure mathematical conversion, but the fighters’ share of the combined probability (both added = 100%).
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Charles Oliveira
Highest Stored DD Rating: Charles Oliveira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Good [***]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2024-11-10