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Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green (10-07-2023)

Posted on October 2, 2023 by Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#14] Grant Dawson (20-1-1, -396) vs. [#15] Bobby Green (30-14-1, +293)

Last 3 Fights: Grant Dawson (3-0-0)
2023-07-01: W vs. [#52LW] Damir Ismagulov (24-3-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#54LW] Mark O. Madsen (12-1-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 3
2022-04-30: W vs. [#68LW] Jared Gordon (19-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:11 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#51LW] Tony Ferguson (25-9-0) via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 4:54 of round 3
2023-04-22: NC vs. [#68LW] Jared Gordon (19-6-0)
2022-12-17: L vs. [#27LW] Drew Dober (26-12-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Grant Dawson -396 75.82%
Elo K170 Grant Dawson 2086.64 +233.58 74.40%
Elo Modified Grant Dawson 2032.86 +206.76 71.20%
Glicko-1 Grant Dawson 2098.90 +206.02 76.60%
WHR Grant Dawson 1976.29 +216.11 72.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Grant Dawson 98, Bobby Green 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#31] Joseph Pyfer (11-2-0, -412) vs. [#72] Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-5-0, +305)

Last 3 Fights: Joseph Pyfer (3-0-0)
2023-04-08: W vs. [#48MW] Gerald Meerschaert (35-17-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:15 of round 1
2022-09-17: W vs. [#499MW] Alen Amedovski (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:55 of round 1
2022-07-26: W vs. [#211MW] Osman Diaz (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Abdul Razak Alhassan (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: W vs. [#152MW] Claudio Ribeiro (11-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:28 of round 2
2022-02-19: L vs. [#43WW] Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-08-28: W vs. [#134MW] Alessio Di Chirico (13-7-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:17 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joseph Pyfer -412 76.52%
Elo K170 Joseph Pyfer 1605.00 +51.48 55.85%
Elo Modified Abdul Razak Alhassan 1617.49 +0.31 50.03%
Glicko-1 Joseph Pyfer 1693.71 +9.20 51.32%
WHR Abdul Razak Alhassan 1620.63 +23.05 52.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Pyfer 182, Abdul Razak Alhassan 266
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#26] Alex Morono (23-8-0, +159) vs. [#43] Joaquin Buckley (16-6-0, -197)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Morono (2-1-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#37WW] Tim Means (33-15-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:09 of round 2
2022-12-10: L vs. [#30WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:29 of round 3
2022-07-30: W vs. [#69WW] Matthew Semelsberger (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#77WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2
2022-12-10: L vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (30-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2
2022-09-03: L vs. [#18MW] Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Joaquin Buckley -197 63.20%
Elo K170 Alex Morono 1826.35 +107.10 61.99%
Elo Modified Alex Morono 1866.43 +160.51 66.88%
Glicko-1 Alex Morono 1932.49 +159.24 71.43%
WHR Alex Morono 1754.85 +114.87 62.83%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Morono 147, Joaquin Buckley 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#27] Drew Dober (26-12-0, -454) vs. [#126] Ricky Glenn (22-7-2, +333)

Last 3 Fights: Drew Dober (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: L vs. [#24LW] Matt Frevola (11-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:08 of round 1
2022-12-17: W vs. [#15LW] Bobby Green (30-14-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:45 of round 2
2022-07-30: W vs. [#120LW] Rafael Alves (20-12-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 1:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Glenn (1-1-1)
2023-04-22: L vs. [#97LW] Christos Giagos (20-11-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:35 of round 1
2021-10-23: D vs. [#14LW] Grant Dawson (20-1-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2021-06-19: W vs. [#114LW] Joaquim Silva (12-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Drew Dober -454 78.01%
Elo K170 Drew Dober 1791.00 +126.42 64.05%
Elo Modified Drew Dober 1777.27 +150.40 65.89%
Glicko-1 Drew Dober 1828.35 +194.61 75.40%
WHR Drew Dober 1768.90 +202.22 71.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Drew Dober 154, Ricky Glenn 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#20] Philipe Lins (17-5-0, +116) vs. [#26] Ion Cutelaba (17-9-1, -142)

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (3-0-0)
2023-06-03: W vs. [#39LHW] Maxim Grishin (32-10-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#43LHW] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-04-23: W vs. [#57LHW] Marcin Prachnio (16-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ion Cutelaba (1-2-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#66LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:05 of round 1
2022-11-19: L vs. [#32LHW] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2
2022-09-10: L vs. [#9LHW] Johnny Walker (21-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ion Cutelaba -142 55.89%
Elo K170 Philipe Lins 1774.71 +228.00 73.92%
Elo Modified Philipe Lins 1802.40 +190.81 69.75%
Glicko-1 Philipe Lins 1819.86 +177.50 73.53%
WHR Philipe Lins 1737.46 +108.10 62.10%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Philipe Lins 126, Ion Cutelaba 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ion Cutelaba leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#38] Alexander Hernandez (14-6-0, +111) vs. [#60] Bill Algeo (17-7-0, -137)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#49LW] Jim Miller (36-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#28FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:30 of round 2
2022-02-12: L vs. [#21LW] Renato Carneiro (17-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:23 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Bill Algeo (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#130FW] T.J. Brown (17-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:40 of round 2
2022-09-17: L vs. [#59FW] Andre Fili (22-10-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-07-16: W vs. [#266FW] Herbert Burns (11-4-0) via TKO (Retirement) in 1:50 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bill Algeo -137 54.95%
Elo K170 Alexander Hernandez 1707.26 +17.19 51.96%
Elo Modified Bill Algeo 1726.10 +25.58 52.80%
Glicko-1 Bill Algeo 1794.93 +38.52 55.52%
WHR Bill Algeo 1729.90 +86.16 59.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Hernandez 231, Bill Algeo 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#19] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7-0, -171) vs. [#76] Diana Belbita (15-7-0, +140)

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (3-0-0)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#42SW] Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-12: W vs. [#83SW] Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-04: W vs. [*] Felice Herrig (14-10-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Diana Belbita (2-1-0)
2023-06-10: W vs. [#127SW] Maria Oliveira (13-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-02-19: L vs. [#101SW] Gloria de Paula (6-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-07-24: W vs. [#117SW] Hannah Goldy (6-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karolina Kowalkiewicz -171 60.22%
Elo K170 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1534.54 +288.38 78.88%
Elo Modified Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1521.71 +261.05 75.82%
Glicko-1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1484.30 +256.63 81.41%
WHR Karolina Kowalkiewicz 1401.64 +181.58 69.63%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 140, Diana Belbita 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Chris Gutierrez (19-5-2, +157) vs. [#27] Montel Jackson (13-2-0, -195)

Last 3 Fights: Chris Gutierrez (2-1-0)
2023-04-15: L vs. [#11BW] Pedro Munhoz (20-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Frankie Edgar (24-11-1) via KO (Knee) in 2:01 of round 1
2022-03-26: W vs. [#229BW] Batgerel Danaa (11-5-0) via TKO (Spinning Backfist and Elbows) in 2:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Montel Jackson (3-0-0)
2023-04-22: W vs. [#83BW] Rani Yahya (28-11-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:42 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [#84BW] Julio Arce (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#653BW] J.P. Buys (9-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Montel Jackson -195 62.94%
Elo K170 Montel Jackson 1849.14 +44.74 55.09%
Elo Modified Montel Jackson 1840.94 +97.21 60.48%
Glicko-1 Montel Jackson 1908.22 +120.75 66.71%
WHR Montel Jackson 1813.78 +160.39 67.54%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Gutierrez 175, Montel Jackson 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#235] Johnny Munoz Jr. (12-3-0, -109) vs. [#276] Qileng Aori (25-10-0, -113)

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Munoz Jr. (1-2-0)
2023-06-03: L vs. [#70BW] Daniel Santos (13-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2022-11-05: W vs. [#575BW] Liudvik Sholinian (9-3-1) via UD ()
2022-06-04: L vs. [#85BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:08 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Qileng Aori (2-1-0)
2023-06-10: L vs. [#108BW] Aiemann Zahabi (10-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2022-08-20: W vs. [#510FW] Jay Perrin (11-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-04-23: W vs. [*] Cameron Else (10-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Qileng Aori -113 50.42%
Elo K170 Johnny Munoz Jr. 1449.09 +37.37 54.26%
Elo Modified Johnny Munoz Jr. 1477.21 +43.41 54.74%
Glicko-1 Johnny Munoz Jr. 1478.94 +42.79 56.13%
WHR Johnny Munoz Jr. 1416.36 +28.01 53.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johnny Munoz Jr. 126, Qileng Aori 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#42] Vanessa Demopoulos (9-5-0, +262) vs. [*] Kanako Murata (12-2-0, -339)

Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Demopoulos (2-1-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#19SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (15-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-11-19: W vs. [#127SW] Maria Oliveira (13-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-06-25: W vs. [#81SW] Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kanako Murata (2-1-0)
2021-06-19: L vs. [#6SW] Virna Jandiroba (19-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 5:00 of round 2
2020-11-14: W vs. [*] Randa Markos (11-11-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-11-01: W vs. [#24SW] Emily Ducote (12-8-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kanako Murata -339 73.65%
Elo K170 Kanako Murata 1475.56 +104.30 61.69%
Elo Modified Kanako Murata 1484.21 +115.83 62.41%
Glicko-1 Kanako Murata 1447.07 +116.85 66.21%
WHR Kanako Murata 1451.34 +202.48 71.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vanessa Demopoulos 140, Kanako Murata 840
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#167BW] Mateus Mendonca (10-1-0, -245) vs. [#82] Nathan Maness (14-3-0, +192)

Last 3 Fights: Mateus Mendonca (2-1-0)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#44BW] Javid Basharat (14-0-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-09-27: W vs. [#607BW] Ashiek Ajim (6-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1
2020-10-16: W vs. [#176FLY] Pedro Nobre (22-7-2) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Nathan Maness (1-2-0)
2022-11-05: L vs. [#16FLY] Tagir Ulanbekov (15-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:11 of round 1
2022-06-25: L vs. [#16BW] Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-25, 30-26)
2021-09-18: W vs. [#85BW] Tony Gravely (23-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mateus Mendonca -245 67.46%
Elo K170 Nathan Maness 1616.99 +77.67 58.78%
Elo Modified Nathan Maness 1637.64 +57.75 56.29%
Glicko-1 Nathan Maness 1643.66 +53.32 57.61%
WHR Nathan Maness 1592.18 +110.96 62.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mateus Mendonca 266, Nathan Maness 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#40] J.J. Aldrich (12-6-0, -121) vs. [#43] Montana De La Rosa (12-8-1, -101)

Last 3 Fights: J.J. Aldrich (1-2-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#165FLY] Na Liang (19-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 4:49 of round 2
2023-03-11: L vs. [#26FLY] Ariane Lipski (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-06-04: L vs. [#4FLY/#5P4P] Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Montana De La Rosa (1-2-0)
2023-02-25: L vs. [#4SW/#8DD] Tatiana Suarez (10-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:15 of round 2
2022-04-23: L vs. [#7FLY] Maycee Barber (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-06-05: W vs. [#26FLY] Ariane Lipski (16-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:27 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds J.J. Aldrich -121 52.14%
Elo K170 J.J. Aldrich 1393.16 +25.47 52.90%
Elo Modified J.J. Aldrich 1437.26 +66.38 57.21%
Glicko-1 J.J. Aldrich 1423.78 +58.10 58.29%
WHR J.J. Aldrich 1412.65 +50.72 55.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: J.J. Aldrich 42, Montana De La Rosa 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Montana De La Rosa leads 2-1
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Grant Dawson
Highest Stored DD Rating: Grant Dawson
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2023-10-1

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