Fight Matrix Program – UFC 264: Poirier vs McGregor (07-10-2021)

Jul 5, 2021
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#1/#6DD] Dustin Poirier (27-6-0, -125) vs. [#12] Conor McGregor (22-5-0, +103)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #9 ranked Lightweight and #42 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #23 ranked Lightweight and #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#12LW] Conor McGregor (22-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#9LW] Dan Hooker (20-10-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-46)
2019-09-07: L vs. [*] Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (1-2-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#1LW/#6DD] Dustin Poirier (27-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:32 of round 2
2020-01-18: W vs. [#32WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1
2018-10-06: L vs. [*] Khabib Nurmagomedov (29-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dustin Poirier -125 53.00%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2364.98 +213.97 72.66%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2298.68 +205.09 71.05%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2365.85 +232.35 79.21%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2121.72 +190.46 70.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 168, Conor McGregor 168
Previous Match-up Record: Even: 1-1-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dustin Poirier leads 5-3
.

Welterweight (170)
[#4] Gilbert Burns (19-4-0, +135) vs. [#6] Stephen Thompson (16-4-1, -164)
Gilbert Burns is the All-Time #42 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Stephen Thompson is the All-Time #14 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (2-1-0)
2021-02-13: L vs. [#1WW/#1DD/#1P4P] Kamaru Usman (19-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 3
2020-05-30: W vs. [#11WW] Tyron Woodley (19-7-1) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#22WW] Demian Maia (28-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Stephen Thompson (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#30WW] Geoff Neal (13-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#7WW] Vicente Luque (20-7-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2019-03-23: L vs. [#44LW] Anthony Pettis (24-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Stephen Thompson -164 59.34%
Elo K170 Gilbert Burns 2201.72 +138.34 65.30%
Elo Modified Gilbert Burns 2161.45 +105.53 61.35%
Glicko-1 Gilbert Burns 2219.14 +117.01 66.23%
WHR Stephen Thompson 1975.80 +10.79 51.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Burns 147, Stephen Thompson 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gilbert Burns leads 1-0
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#26] Tai Tuivasa (12-4-0, -140) vs. [#40] Greg Hardy (7-3-0, +114)

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (2-1-0)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#155HW+] Harry Hunsucker (7-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2020-10-24: W vs. [*] Stefan Struve (29-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1
2019-10-05: L vs. [#20HW+] Sergey Spivak (13-2-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#10HW+] Marcin Tybura (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2
2020-10-31: W vs. [#57HW+] Maurice Greene (9-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 2
2020-05-09: W vs. [#169HW+] Yorgan De Castro (6-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tai Tuivasa -140 55.52%
Elo K170 Tai Tuivasa 1620.64 +62.31 57.07%
Elo Modified Greg Hardy 1650.18 +6.03 50.66%
Glicko-1 Tai Tuivasa 1712.76 +95.25 63.38%
WHR Tai Tuivasa 1602.88 +115.41 62.89%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 112, Greg Hardy 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Yana Kunitskaya (14-5-0, -102) vs. [#8] Irene Aldana (12-6-0, -122)

Last 3 Fights: Yana Kunitskaya (2-1-0)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#10BW] Ketlen Vieira (11-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#31BW] Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-2) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-12-07: L vs. [*] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Irene Aldana (2-1-0)
2020-10-03: L vs. [#2BW/#6DD] Holly Holm (14-5-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#10BW] Ketlen Vieira (11-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:51 of round 1
2019-09-21: W vs. [#22BW] Vanessa Melo (11-8-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Irene Aldana -122 52.11%
Elo K170 Yana Kunitskaya 1642.22 +109.37 62.24%
Elo Modified Yana Kunitskaya 1643.07 +71.49 57.76%
Glicko-1 Yana Kunitskaya 1608.16 +33.57 54.82%
WHR Yana Kunitskaya 1547.92 +2.13 50.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yana Kunitskaya 140, Irene Aldana 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#42] Sean OMalley (13-1-0, -853) vs. [#230] Kris Moutinho (9-4-0, +542)

Last 3 Fights: Sean OMalley (2-1-0)
2021-03-27: W vs. [#290BW] Thomas Almeida (22-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:52 of round 3
2020-08-15: L vs. [#15BW] Marlon Vera (18-7-1) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:40 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [#83BW] Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) via KO (Punch) in 1:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kris Moutinho (2-1-0)
2021-05-28: W vs. [#594BW] Andrew Salas (6-6-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:26 of round 3
2020-10-14: W vs. [#701BW] Ashiek Ajim (3-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:45 of round 2
2019-07-26: L vs. [#34BW] Johnny Campbell (21-13-0) via TKO in 1:45 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sean OMalley -853 85.17%
Elo K170 Sean OMalley 1709.68 +402.53 86.28%
Elo Modified Sean OMalley 1727.31 +376.94 83.89%
Glicko-1 Sean OMalley 1793.96 +455.96 93.24%
WHR Sean OMalley 1639.49 +347.72 83.04%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sean OMalley 105, Kris Moutinho 43
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#36] Carlos Condit (32-13-0, +155) vs. [#66] Max Griffin (17-8-0, -190)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (2-1-0)
2021-01-16: W vs. [#56WW] Matt Brown (23-18-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-10-03: W vs. [#71WW] Court McGee (20-10-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#5WW] Michael Chiesa (18-4-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 0:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Max Griffin (2-1-0)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#110WW] Kenan Song (16-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1
2020-11-07: W vs. [#293WW] Ramiz Brahimaj (8-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:03 of round 3
2020-03-07: L vs. [#65WW] Alex Oliveira (22-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Max Griffin -190 62.55%
Elo K170 Carlos Condit 1816.20 +182.21 69.69%
Elo Modified Carlos Condit 1818.99 +139.17 64.78%
Glicko-1 Carlos Condit 1845.27 +84.53 61.93%
WHR Carlos Condit 1765.40 +124.25 63.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 175, Max Griffin 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Condit leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#54] Niko Price (14-4-0, +135) vs. [#61] Michel Pereira (26-11-0, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2020-09-19: NC vs. [#32WW] Donald Cerrone (36-16-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#7WW] Vicente Luque (20-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage in 3:37 of round 3
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] James Vick (13-6-0) via KO (Upkick) in 1:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michel Pereira (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#62WW] Kalinn Williams (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-05: W vs. [#322WW] Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 3
2020-02-15: L vs. [#81WW] Diego Sanchez (30-13-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 3:09 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Michel Pereira -166 59.46%
Elo K170 Niko Price 1688.31 +33.48 53.82%
Elo Modified Niko Price 1712.95 +14.21 51.55%
Glicko-1 Michel Pereira 1741.17 +10.98 51.58%
WHR Niko Price 1667.82 +49.14 55.59%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Niko Price 294, Michel Pereira 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#33] Trevin Giles (14-2-0, -107) vs. [#46] Dricus Du Plessis (15-2-0, -116)

Last 3 Fights: Trevin Giles (3-0-0)
2021-03-20: W vs. [#55MW] Roman Dolidze (9-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-11-07: W vs. [#115MW] Bevon Lewis (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 3
2020-02-08: W vs. [#34WW] James Krause (28-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Dricus Du Plessis (3-0-0)
2020-10-10: W vs. [#121MW] Markus Perez (12-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:22 of round 1
2019-12-14: W vs. [#303MW] Brendan Lesar (3-2-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2019-09-14: W vs. [#72LW] Joilton Lutterbach (34-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dricus Du Plessis -116 50.95%
Elo K170 Trevin Giles 1761.76 +5.52 50.63%
Elo Modified Dricus Du Plessis 1791.65 +38.28 54.18%
Glicko-1 Dricus Du Plessis 1852.83 +83.99 61.86%
WHR Dricus Du Plessis 1809.95 +142.07 65.68%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trevin Giles 112, Dricus Du Plessis 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#24] Ilia Topuria (10-0-0, -240) vs. [*] Ryan Hall (8-1-0, +191)

Last 3 Fights: Ilia Topuria (3-0-0)
2020-12-05: W vs. [#49FW] Damon Jackson (18-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2020-10-10: W vs. [#182FW] Youssef Zalal (10-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-11-15: W vs. [#859FW] Stephen Goncalves (6-3-0) via TKO in 3:42 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Hall (3-0-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#58FW] Darren Elkins (25-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] B.J. Penn (16-14-2) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 2:46 of round 1
2016-12-03: W vs. [*] Gray Maynard (13-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ilia Topuria -240 67.26%
Elo K170 Ryan Hall 1787.31 +71.28 58.07%
Elo Modified Ryan Hall 1801.91 +62.06 56.75%
Glicko-1 Ryan Hall 1839.81 +51.51 57.36%
WHR Ryan Hall 1804.96 +87.39 59.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ilia Topuria 217, Ryan Hall 728
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#5] Jennifer Maia (18-7-1, -196) vs. [#16] Jessica Eye (15-9-0, +161)
Jennifer Maia is the All-Time #21 ranked Women’s fighter.
Jessica Eye is the All-Time #44 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jennifer Maia (1-2-0)
2020-11-21: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (21-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#10FLY] Joanne Calderwood (15-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:29 of round 1
2019-11-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#9P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Eye (1-2-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#10FLY] Joanne Calderwood (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#8FLY] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#9FLY] Viviane Araujo (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jennifer Maia -196 63.35%
Elo K170 Jennifer Maia 1628.41 +184.73 69.93%
Elo Modified Jennifer Maia 1620.91 +165.64 67.37%
Glicko-1 Jennifer Maia 1622.17 +213.18 77.33%
WHR Jennifer Maia 1627.09 +237.52 74.74%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jennifer Maia 231, Jessica Eye 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Eye leads 4-3
.

Middleweight (185)
[#16] Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1, +135) vs. [#22] Brad Tavares (18-6-0, -165)

Last 3 Fights: Omari Akhmedov (2-1-0)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#45MW] Tom Breese (12-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:41 of round 2
2020-08-08: L vs. [#13MW] Chris Weidman (15-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#18MW] Ian Heinisch (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Brad Tavares (1-2-0)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#32LHW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#27MW] Edmen Shahbazyan (11-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:27 of round 1
2018-07-06: L vs. [#1MW/#6P4P] Israel Adesanya (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brad Tavares -165 59.40%
Elo K170 Omari Akhmedov 1895.60 +92.35 60.39%
Elo Modified Omari Akhmedov 1904.11 +82.81 58.97%
Glicko-1 Omari Akhmedov 1952.65 +112.47 65.64%
WHR Omari Akhmedov 1819.43 +54.59 56.20%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Omari Akhmedov 171, Brad Tavares 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Omari Akhmedov leads 1-0
.

Flyweight (125)
[#32] Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-5-0, -367) vs. [#91] Jerome Rivera (10-5-0, +277)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov is the All-Time #42 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-2-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#17FLY] Amir Albazi (14-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-07-11: L vs. [#82BW] Raulian Paiva (20-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-19: W vs. [#13FLY] Ali Bagautinov (21-7-0) via SD (47-48, 49-47, 49-48)

Last 3 Fights: Jerome Rivera (0-3-0)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#220FW] Ode Osbourne (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2021-01-20: L vs. [#58FLY] Francisco Figueiredo (12-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-19: L vs. [#52FLY] Tyson Nam (20-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:34 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Zhalgas Zhumagulov -367 74.76%
Elo K170 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1547.99 +329.17 81.81%
Elo Modified Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1531.39 +261.29 75.84%
Glicko-1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1536.38 +292.84 84.37%
WHR Zhalgas Zhumagulov 1513.36 +206.44 71.97%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Zhalgas Zhumagulov 168, Jerome Rivera 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Zhalgas Zhumagulov leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[*] Alen Amedovski (8-2-0, -153) vs. [*] Yaozong Hu (3-2-0, +124)

Last 3 Fights: Alen Amedovski (1-2-0)
2019-09-28: L vs. [#172MW] John Phillips (22-11-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:17 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#26MW] Krzysztof Jotko (22-5-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#427WW] Ibrahim Mane (8-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yaozong Hu (1-2-0)
2018-11-24: L vs. [*] Rashad Coulter (9-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-11-25: L vs. [*] Cyril Asker (9-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:33 of round 2
2016-12-02: W vs. [NA] Abror Yakhyaev (0-2-0) via TKO in ? of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alen Amedovski -153 57.53%
Elo K170 Alen Amedovski 1325.26 +283.49 78.51%
Elo Modified Alen Amedovski 1398.06 +301.00 78.88%
Glicko-1 Alen Amedovski 1393.60 +326.93 86.78%
WHR Alen Amedovski 1370.05 +335.04 82.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alen Amedovski 651, Yaozong Hu 959
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Dustin Poirier
Highest Stored DD Rating: Dustin Poirier
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2021-7-4

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