Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs Waterson (05-08-2021)

3 May , 2021,
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2, -175) vs. [#10] Michelle Waterson (18-8-0, +150)
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #32 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (1-1-1)
2021-01-23: W vs. [#15SW] Amanda Ribas (10-2-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2020-07-25: L vs. [#4SW/#9P4P] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-12-07: D vs. [#9FLY] Cynthia Calvillo (9-2-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (1-2-0)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#12SW] Angela Hill (13-9-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#4SW/#9P4P] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#3SW/#7P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marina Rodriguez -175 61.40%
Elo K170 Marina Rodriguez 1654.55 +74.96 58.48%
Elo Modified Marina Rodriguez 1692.05 +119.79 62.82%
Glicko-1 Marina Rodriguez 1705.01 +165.47 72.16%
WHR Marina Rodriguez 1635.94 +147.45 66.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 105, Michelle Waterson 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Marina Rodriguez leads 1-0
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Heavyweight (265)
[#24] Ben Rothwell (38-13-0, -111) vs. [#42] Philipe Lins (14-5-0, -112)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #48 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2020-10-10: L vs. [#11HW+] Marcin Tybura (21-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#25LHW] Ovince St. Preux (25-15-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-12-07: W vs. [*] Stefan Struve (29-13-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Philipe Lins (1-2-0)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#34HW+] Tanner Boser (19-7-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:41 of round 1
2020-05-13: L vs. [#31HW+] Andrei Arlovski (31-20-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-31: W vs. [*] Josh Copeland (18-7-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 0:30 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Philipe Lins -112 50.10%
Elo K170 Ben Rothwell 1706.22 +211.47 72.43%
Elo Modified Ben Rothwell 1711.40 +145.70 65.43%
Glicko-1 Ben Rothwell 1755.28 +199.51 75.92%
WHR Ben Rothwell 1638.07 +92.14 60.37%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 210, Philipe Lins 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Angela Hill (13-9-0, +145) vs. [#15] Amanda Ribas (10-2-0, -177)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (1-2-0)
2021-03-13: W vs. [#27SW] Ashley Yoder (8-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-09-12: L vs. [#10SW] Michelle Waterson (18-8-0) via SD (48-47, 49-46, 47-48)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#8SW] Claudia Gadelha (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2021-01-23: L vs. [#6SW] Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2
2020-07-11: W vs. [#75FLY] Paige VanZant (8-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:21 of round 1
2020-03-14: W vs. [#35SW] Randa Markos (10-11-1) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-25)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Amanda Ribas -177 61.01%
Elo K170 Amanda Ribas 1502.41 +34.55 53.94%
Elo Modified Angela Hill 1567.54 +32.35 53.53%
Glicko-1 Angela Hill 1573.92 +65.20 59.27%
WHR Amanda Ribas 1533.76 +33.10 53.77%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 56, Amanda Ribas 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Amanda Ribas leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Neil Magny (24-8-0, +157) vs. [#22] Geoff Neal (13-3-0, -191)
Neil Magny is the All-Time #38 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Neil Magny (2-1-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [#5WW] Michael Chiesa (18-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2020-08-29: W vs. [#44WW] Robbie Lawler (28-15-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#14WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Geoff Neal (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#6WW] Stephen Thompson (16-4-1) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#54WW] Mike Perry (14-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-07-27: W vs. [#50WW] Niko Price (14-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Geoff Neal -191 62.78%
Elo K170 Neil Magny 2050.66 +212.44 72.52%
Elo Modified Neil Magny 2023.35 +191.46 69.81%
Glicko-1 Neil Magny 2072.45 +176.16 73.38%
WHR Neil Magny 1904.83 +122.02 63.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Neil Magny 108, Geoff Neal 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Diego Ferreira (17-3-0, +151) vs. [*] Gregor Gillespie (13-1-0, -184)
Diego Ferreira is the All-Time #47 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Ferreira (2-1-0)
2021-02-06: L vs. [#7LW] Beneil Dariush (20-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#17LW] Anthony Pettis (24-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [*] Mairbek Taisumov (27-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Gregor Gillespie (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#11LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:47 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#95LW] Yancy Medeiros (15-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 2
2018-06-01: W vs. [#31LW] Vinc Pichel (13-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:06 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gregor Gillespie -184 61.92%
Elo K170 Diego Ferreira 1991.51 +158.83 67.39%
Elo Modified Diego Ferreira 2034.01 +198.92 70.49%
Glicko-1 Diego Ferreira 2097.36 +236.54 79.61%
WHR Diego Ferreira 1996.57 +270.42 77.48%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Ferreira 91, Gregor Gillespie 553
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#52] Kyle Daukaus (10-1-0, -144) vs. [#108] Phil Hawes (10-2-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (2-1-0)
2020-11-21: W vs. [#102MW] Dustin Stoltzfus (13-2-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-06-27: L vs. [#28MW] Brendan Allen (16-4-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-02-01: W vs. [#204MW] Nolan Norwood (12-7-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:36 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Phil Hawes (3-0-0)
2021-02-20: W vs. [#137MW] Nassourdine Imavov (9-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#122MW] Jacob Malkoun (5-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:18 of round 1
2020-09-08: W vs. [#393MW] Khadzhimurat Bestaev (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kyle Daukaus -144 56.26%
Elo K170 Kyle Daukaus 1670.91 +75.85 58.58%
Elo Modified Kyle Daukaus 1702.51 +93.18 60.06%
Glicko-1 Kyle Daukaus 1721.64 +118.88 66.47%
WHR Kyle Daukaus 1634.20 +54.13 56.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kyle Daukaus 168, Phil Hawes 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#118] Ryan Benoit (10-7-0, -165) vs. [#357] Zarrukh Adashev (3-3-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Benoit (1-2-0)
2020-07-15: L vs. [#17FLY] Tim Elliott (17-11-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-12-21: L vs. [#142BW] Heili Alateng (14-8-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-11-18: W vs. [*] Ashkan Mokhtarian (13-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:38 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Zarrukh Adashev (1-2-0)
2021-01-20: L vs. [#22FLY] Su Mudaerji (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#37FLY] Tyson Nam (20-12-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:32 of round 1
2019-10-26: W vs. [*] Tevin Dyce (3-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ryan Benoit -165 59.40%
Elo K170 Ryan Benoit 1317.78 +214.13 72.67%
Elo Modified Ryan Benoit 1395.81 +256.50 75.45%
Glicko-1 Ryan Benoit 1428.06 +300.58 84.95%
WHR Ryan Benoit 1419.94 +242.75 75.19%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Benoit 297, Zarrukh Adashev 108
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#45] Maurice Greene (9-5-0, +143) vs. [#61] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-7-1, -175)

Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (1-2-0)
2020-10-31: L vs. [#39HW+] Greg Hardy (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:12 of round 2
2020-06-27: W vs. [#97HW+] Gian Villante (17-13-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:44 of round 3
2020-01-18: L vs. [#20HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-15-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Marcos Rogerio de Lima (1-2-0)
2020-11-07: L vs. [#36HW+] Alexander Romanov (14-0-0) via Technical Submission (Forearm Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2020-02-22: W vs. [#138HW+] Ben Sosoli (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:28 of round 1
2019-02-23: L vs. [*] Stefan Struve (29-13-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Marcos Rogerio de Lima -175 60.73%
Elo K170 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1505.26 +34.36 53.92%
Elo Modified Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1550.89 +31.88 53.48%
Glicko-1 Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1571.01 +75.43 60.69%
WHR Marcos Rogerio de Lima 1501.59 +92.79 60.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maurice Greene 189, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#102] Carlston Lindsay Harris (15-4-0, -138) vs. [#110] Christian Aguilera (14-7-0, +112)

Last 3 Fights: Carlston Lindsay Harris (3-0-0)
2021-01-15: W vs. [#157WW] Saygid Izagakhmaev (17-2-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:36 of round 2
2020-09-27: W vs. [#489WW] Alexsandro Santos Rodrigu (9-8-1) via KO in 1:12 of round 2
2019-12-21: W vs. [*] Claudio Rocha (12-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Christian Aguilera (2-1-0)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#20WW] Sean Brady (14-0-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:47 of round 2
2020-06-13: W vs. [#163WW] Anthony Ivy (8-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2020-01-31: W vs. [#654LW] Glaucio Eliziario (9-6-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Carlston Lindsay Harris -138 55.14%
Elo K170 Carlston Lindsay Harris 1715.03 +165.93 68.09%
Elo Modified Carlston Lindsay Harris 1732.41 +150.23 65.87%
Glicko-1 Carlston Lindsay Harris 1791.76 +216.38 77.65%
WHR Carlston Lindsay Harris 1767.63 +282.53 78.43%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlston Lindsay Harris 113, Christian Aguilera 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#62] Jun Yong Park (12-4-0, +139) vs. [#82] Tafon Nchukwi (5-0-0, -170)

Last 3 Fights: Jun Yong Park (2-1-0)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#174MW] John Phillips (22-11-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-12-21: W vs. [#57MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#68MW] Anthony Hernandez (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:39 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Tafon Nchukwi (3-0-0)
2020-12-19: W vs. [#197MW] Jamie Pickett (11-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-26)
2020-09-08: W vs. [#302MW] Al Matavao (9-4-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:01 of round 2
2019-11-22: W vs. [#70LHW] William Knight (9-2-0) via TKO in 2:30 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tafon Nchukwi -170 60.07%
Elo K170 Jun Yong Park 1599.91 +95.56 60.75%
Elo Modified Jun Yong Park 1642.20 +13.58 51.49%
Glicko-1 Jun Yong Park 1658.84 +116.55 66.17%
WHR Jun Yong Park 1635.52 +133.38 64.78%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jun Yong Park 203, Tafon Nchukwi 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#66] Ludovit Klein (17-2-0, -248) vs. [*] Michael Trizano (8-1-0, +196)

Last 3 Fights: Ludovit Klein (3-0-0)
2020-09-26: W vs. [#201FW] Shane Young (13-6-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:16 of round 1
2020-02-15: W vs. [#490FW] Lukasz Sajewski (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:49 of round 1
2019-09-14: W vs. [*] Joao Paulo Rodrigues de S (37-20-2) via TKO in of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michael Trizano (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#22LW] Grant Dawson (17-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 2
2018-11-10: W vs. [#107LW] Luis Pena (9-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-07-06: W vs. [#476LW] Joe Giannetti (10-4-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ludovit Klein -248 67.84%
Elo K170 Ludovit Klein 1755.82 +183.29 69.79%
Elo Modified Ludovit Klein 1737.81 +186.04 69.30%
Glicko-1 Ludovit Klein 1818.54 +327.48 86.82%
WHR Ludovit Klein 1667.23 +210.00 72.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ludovit Klein 224, Michael Trizano 721
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Neil Magny
Highest Stored DD Rating: Diego Ferreira
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Very Good [***½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2021-5-2