Fight Matrix Program – UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns (2021-02-13)

8 Feb , 2021,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#2DD/#3P4P] Kamaru Usman (17-1-0, -276) vs. [#4] Gilbert Burns (19-3-0, +220)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight and #35 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2020-07-11: W vs. [#3WW] Jorge Masvidal (35-14-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2WW] Colby Covington (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-03-02: W vs. [#8WW] Tyron Woodley (19-6-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (3-0-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#8WW] Tyron Woodley (19-6-1) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#10WW] Demian Maia (28-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:34 of round 1
2019-09-28: W vs. [*] Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -276 70.13%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2441.67 +199.00 71.28%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2388.27 +187.57 69.45%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2457.81 +178.96 73.70%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2223.89 +207.94 72.11%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 217, Gilbert Burns 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#12] Alexa Grasso (12-3-0, -142) vs. [#17] Maycee Barber (8-1-0, +116)

Last 3 Fights: Alexa Grasso (2-1-0)
2020-08-29: W vs. [#55FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-3-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#4SW] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#25SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Maycee Barber (2-1-0)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#16FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (25-18-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#20FLY] Gillian Robertson (9-5-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:04 of round 1
2019-03-23: W vs. [#40FLY] J.J. Aldrich (8-4-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 3:01 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexa Grasso -142 55.89%
Elo K170 Alexa Grasso 1527.33 +50.72 55.77%
Elo Modified Alexa Grasso 1538.91 +23.58 52.58%
Glicko-1 Alexa Grasso 1512.19 +0.16 50.02%
WHR Alexa Grasso 1516.08 +80.95 59.14%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexa Grasso 168, Maycee Barber 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#10] Kelvin Gastelum (15-6-0, -221) vs. [#18] Ian Heinisch (14-3-0, +177)
Kelvin Gastelum is the All-Time #30 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (0-3-0)
2020-07-18: L vs. [#9MW] Jack Hermansson (21-6-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:18 of round 1
2019-11-02: L vs. [#6MW] Darren Till (18-3-1) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 27-30)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#1MW/#9DD/#4P4P] Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)

Last 3 Fights: Ian Heinisch (1-2-0)
2020-06-06: W vs. [#46MW] Gerald Meerschaert (31-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 1
2019-12-14: L vs. [#16MW] Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-17: L vs. [#12MW] Derek Brunson (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kelvin Gastelum -221 65.60%
Elo K170 Kelvin Gastelum 1858.24 +60.85 56.91%
Elo Modified Kelvin Gastelum 1892.96 +77.25 58.37%
Glicko-1 Kelvin Gastelum 1956.10 +66.95 59.52%
WHR Kelvin Gastelum 1777.46 +37.22 54.24%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 210, Ian Heinisch 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#9] Pedro Munhoz (18-5-0, +117) vs. [#10] Jimmie Rivera (23-4-0, -143)
Pedro Munhoz is the All-Time #29 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Jimmie Rivera is the All-Time #19 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Pedro Munhoz (1-2-0)
2020-08-22: L vs. [#6BW] Frankie Edgar (24-9-1) via SD (48-47, 46-49, 48-47)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#8BW] Cody Garbrandt (12-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jimmie Rivera (1-2-0)
2020-07-15: W vs. [#28FW] Cody Stamann (19-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#1BW/#8DD/#9P4P] Petr Yan (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#3BW] Aljamain Sterling (19-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jimmie Rivera -143 56.08%
Elo K170 Jimmie Rivera 1922.49 +96.10 60.80%
Elo Modified Jimmie Rivera 1907.52 +2.23 50.24%
Glicko-1 Pedro Munhoz 1991.61 +58.44 58.33%
WHR Pedro Munhoz 1848.28 +14.64 51.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Pedro Munhoz 175, Jimmie Rivera 213
Previous Match-up Record: Jimmie Rivera leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jimmie Rivera leads 1-0
.

Middleweight (185)
[#158] Maki Pitolo (13-7-0, +149) vs. [*] Julian Marquez (7-2-0, -181)

Last 3 Fights: Maki Pitolo (1-2-0)
2020-08-29: L vs. [#151MW] Impa Kasanganay (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-08: L vs. [#50MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:41 of round 1
2020-06-06: W vs. [#183MW] Charles Byrd (10-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Julian Marquez (2-1-0)
2018-07-06: L vs. [#62MW] Alessio Di Chirico (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2017-12-16: W vs. [#50MW] Darren Stewart (12-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:42 of round 2
2017-08-01: W vs. [#146MW] Phil Hawes (9-2-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:20 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julian Marquez -181 61.59%
Elo K170 Julian Marquez 1416.09 +52.39 55.96%
Elo Modified Julian Marquez 1496.23 +104.15 61.20%
Glicko-1 Julian Marquez 1549.32 +153.38 70.74%
WHR Julian Marquez 1538.44 +209.60 72.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maki Pitolo 168, Julian Marquez 953
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Julian Marquez leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#29] Bobby Green (27-11-1, -262) vs. [#39] Jim Miller (32-15-0, +207)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #40 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (2-1-0)
2020-10-31: L vs. [#24LW] Thiago Moises (14-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-09-12: W vs. [#182LW] Alan Patrick (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#42LW] Lando Vannata (11-5-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2020-08-15: L vs. [#32LW] Vinc Pichel (13-2-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#86LW] Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1
2020-02-15: L vs. [#30LW] Scott Holtzman (14-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bobby Green -262 68.96%
Elo K170 Bobby Green 1696.33 +13.12 51.50%
Elo Modified Bobby Green 1702.19 +26.48 52.90%
Glicko-1 Bobby Green 1736.46 +6.79 50.98%
WHR Bobby Green 1706.91 +40.71 54.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 105, Jim Miller 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#56] Rodolfo Vieira (7-0-0, -397) vs. [#122] Anthony Hernandez (7-2-0, +299)

Last 3 Fights: Rodolfo Vieira (3-0-0)
2020-03-07: W vs. [#219MW] Saparbek Safarov (9-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:58 of round 1
2019-08-10: W vs. [#243MW] Oskar Piechota (11-4-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2019-06-08: W vs. [#97MW] Vitaliy Nemchinov (11-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Hernandez (1-2-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#11MW] Kevin Holland (21-5-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:39 of round 1
2019-08-31: W vs. [#59MW] Jun Yong Park (12-4-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:39 of round 2
2019-02-02: L vs. [#116MW] Markus Perez (12-5-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:07 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rodolfo Vieira -397 76.11%
Elo K170 Rodolfo Vieira 1616.22 +163.16 67.82%
Elo Modified Rodolfo Vieira 1686.24 +161.80 67.00%
Glicko-1 Rodolfo Vieira 1679.84 +185.29 74.39%
WHR Rodolfo Vieira 1596.72 +82.51 59.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rodolfo Vieira 343, Anthony Hernandez 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#17] Belal Muhammad (17-3-0, -350) vs. [*] Dhiego Lima (15-7-0, +285)

Last 3 Fights: Belal Muhammad (3-0-0)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#43WW] Lyman Good (21-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#76WW] Takashi Sato (16-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:55 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#60WW] Curtis Millender (18-6-0) via UD (30-26, 29-27, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Dhiego Lima (3-0-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [*] Luke Jumeau (13-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#87WW] Court McGee (19-10-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-08: W vs. [*] Chad Laprise (13-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Belal Muhammad -350 74.96%
Elo K170 Belal Muhammad 1961.42 +190.21 70.45%
Elo Modified Belal Muhammad 1932.62 +256.80 75.48%
Glicko-1 Belal Muhammad 1973.36 +309.30 85.57%
WHR Belal Muhammad 1829.63 +269.59 77.41%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Belal Muhammad 238, Dhiego Lima 497
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Belal Muhammad leads 1-0
.

Women Strawweight (115)
[#37] Mallory Martin (7-3-0, -166) vs. [#44] Polyana Viana (11-4-0, +136)

Last 3 Fights: Mallory Martin (2-1-0)
2020-08-29: W vs. [#81SW] Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:33 of round 2
2019-12-07: L vs. [#19SW] Virna Jandiroba (16-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:16 of round 2
2019-11-01: W vs. [*] Cynthia Arceo (5-2-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Polyana Viana (1-2-0)
2020-08-29: W vs. [#106SW] Emily Whitmire (4-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:53 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#47BW] Veronica Macedo (6-4-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:09 of round 1
2019-03-02: L vs. [#81SW] Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mallory Martin -166 59.56%
Elo K170 Mallory Martin 1375.33 +151.19 66.61%
Elo Modified Mallory Martin 1390.48 +76.34 58.28%
Glicko-1 Mallory Martin 1369.76 +51.98 57.43%
WHR Mallory Martin 1349.74 +100.78 61.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mallory Martin 168, Polyana Viana 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Mallory Martin leads 1-0
.

Featherweight (145)
[#26BW] Ricky Simon (18-3-0, -263) vs. [#47] Brian Kelleher (22-11-0, +209)

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (2-1-0)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#266BW] Gaetano Pirrello (15-6-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:00 of round 2
2020-05-13: W vs. [#31BW] Ray Borg (13-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-12-07: L vs. [#5BW] Rob Font (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Brian Kelleher (2-1-0)
2020-09-05: W vs. [#126BW] Ray Rodriguez (16-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:39 of round 1
2020-06-06: L vs. [#28FW] Cody Stamann (19-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#64BW] Hunter Azure (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Ricky Simon -263 69.12%
Elo K170 Ricky Simon 1807.97 +119.85 63.36%
Elo Modified Ricky Simon 1741.54 +60.03 56.53%
Glicko-1 Ricky Simon 1762.42 +39.49 55.66%
WHR Ricky Simon 1683.53 +73.30 58.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ricky Simon 24, Brian Kelleher 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ricky Simon leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#359] Gabriel Green (9-3-0, -114) vs. [*] Philip Rowe (7-2-0, -110)

Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Green (2-1-0)
2020-05-30: L vs. [#57WW] Daniel Rodriguez (13-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-08-25: W vs. [*] Richard LeRoy (7-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:52 of round 2
2018-04-13: W vs. [*] Javier Garcia (5-3-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:03 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Philip Rowe (3-0-0)
2019-08-20: W vs. [*] Leon Shahbazyan (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 3
2019-03-06: W vs. [*] Matt McKeon (4-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:34 of round 2
2018-06-16: W vs. [NA] Andrew Hellner (1-5-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:19 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Gabriel Green -114 50.42%
Elo K170 Gabriel Green 1458.69 +140.41 65.51%
Elo Modified Gabriel Green 1517.06 +219.86 72.36%
Glicko-1 Gabriel Green 1547.58 +173.74 73.11%
WHR Gabriel Green 1404.10 +118.62 63.23%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gabriel Green 259, Philip Rowe 543
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#18] Miranda Maverick (8-2-0, -150) vs. [#20] Gillian Robertson (9-5-0, +123)

Last 3 Fights: Miranda Maverick (3-0-0)
2020-10-24: W vs. [#72FLY] Liana Jojua (8-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2020-02-07: W vs. [#35FLY] Pearl Gonzalez (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-09-06: W vs. [#54BW] DeAnna Bennett (10-7-1) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:38 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Gillian Robertson (2-1-0)
2020-12-19: L vs. [#11FLY] Taila Santos (17-1-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 30-26)
2020-10-17: W vs. [#47FLY] Poliana Botelho (8-3-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#24FLY] Cortney Casey (9-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:36 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Miranda Maverick -150 57.23%
Elo K170 Miranda Maverick 1485.09 +24.45 52.79%
Elo Modified Miranda Maverick 1525.63 +37.15 54.06%
Glicko-1 Miranda Maverick 1504.62 +2.63 50.38%
WHR Miranda Maverick 1441.77 +31.66 53.61%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Miranda Maverick 112, Gillian Robertson 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Stored DD Rating: Kamaru Usman
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2021-2-7