Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill (2020-09-12)

8 Sep , 2020,
Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#9] Michelle Waterson (17-8-0, +107) vs. [#14] Angela Hill (12-8-0, -131)
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (1-2-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (17-6-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#3SW/#7DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#23SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#5SW] Claudia Gadelha (18-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#94SW] Konklak Suphisara (4-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#71SW] Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:26 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Angela Hill -131 53.99%
Elo K170 Michelle Waterson 1504.12 +39.05 54.45%
Elo Modified Michelle Waterson 1535.87 +19.86 52.17%
Glicko-1 Angela Hill 1540.20 +12.31 51.77%
WHR Michelle Waterson 1471.07 +12.84 51.47%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michelle Waterson 126, Angela Hill 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michelle Waterson leads 1-0
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#14] Roxanne Modafferi (24-17-0, +248) vs. [#22] Andrea Lee (11-4-0, -318)
Roxanne Modafferi is the All-Time #22 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Roxanne Modafferi (1-2-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#7FLY] Lauren Murphy (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#19FLY] Maycee Barber (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#3FLY] Jennifer Maia (18-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Andrea Lee (1-2-0)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#7FLY] Lauren Murphy (13-4-0) via SD (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#16FLY] Joanne Calderwood (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#34FLY] Montana De La Rosa (10-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andrea Lee -318 72.58%
Elo K170 Roxanne Modafferi 1443.90 +113.34 62.66%
Elo Modified Andrea Lee 1450.06 +27.64 53.02%
Glicko-1 Andrea Lee 1465.79 +30.44 54.37%
WHR Andrea Lee 1444.06 +45.20 55.15%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roxanne Modafferi 84, Andrea Lee 217
Previous Match-up Record: Roxanne Modafferi leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Roxanne Modafferi leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#28] Bobby Green (26-10-1) vs. [*] Alan Patrick Silva Alves (15-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Bobby Green (2-1-0)
2020-08-01: W vs. [#47LW] Lando Vannata (11-5-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2020-06-20: W vs. [#71LW] Clay Guida (35-20-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-11-16: L vs. [#16LW] Francisco Trinaldo (26-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alan Patrick Silva Alves (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#32LW] Scott Holtzman (14-4-0) via KO (Elbows) in 3:42 of round 3
2018-02-03: W vs. [#87LW] Damir Hadzovic (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2016-09-24: W vs. [#39LW] Stevie Ray (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Bobby Green 1732.84 +48.23 55.49%
Elo Modified Bobby Green 1753.08 +51.36 55.60%
Glicko-1 Bobby Green 1765.97 +73.64 60.44%
WHR Bobby Green 1690.45 +35.54 54.05%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bobby Green 42, Alan Patrick Silva Alves 707
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#33] Ed Herman (25-14-0, +199) vs. [#81] Mike Rodriguez (11-5-0, -246)

Last 3 Fights: Ed Herman (2-1-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#79LHW] Khadis Ibragimov (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-05-18: W vs. [*] Patrick Cummins (10-7-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 3:39 of round 1
2018-10-27: L vs. [#99HW+] Gian Villante (17-12-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Rodriguez (1-2-0)
2020-08-22: W vs. [#154LHW] Marcin Prachnio (13-5-0) via KO (Elbow and Punches) in 2:17 of round 1
2019-12-21: L vs. [#51LHW] Da Un Jung (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2019-07-13: L vs. [#88LHW] John Allan Arte (14-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Rodriguez -246 68.01%
Elo K170 Ed Herman 1632.73 +194.14 70.83%
Elo Modified Ed Herman 1681.84 +233.59 73.55%
Glicko-1 Ed Herman 1709.32 +202.06 76.19%
WHR Ed Herman 1629.33 +234.09 74.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ed Herman 308, Mike Rodriguez 21
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#10] Sijara Eubanks (5-4-0, +248) vs. [#11] Julia Avila (8-1-0, -307)

Last 3 Fights: Sijara Eubanks (1-2-0)
2020-05-13: W vs. [#29BW] Sarah Moras (6-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#17BW] Bethe Correia (11-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#3BW] Aspen Ladd (9-1-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Julia Avila (3-0-0)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#46BW] Gina Mazany (6-4-0) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 0:22 of round 1
2019-07-06: W vs. [#9BW] Pannie Kianzad (13-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-11-16: W vs. [#107FLY] Alexa Conners (5-4-0) via TKO (Front Kick and Punches) in 4:43 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Julia Avila -307 72.41%
Elo K170 Julia Avila 1472.15 +63.33 57.18%
Elo Modified Julia Avila 1540.61 +95.32 60.28%
Glicko-1 Julia Avila 1493.74 +45.14 56.46%
WHR Julia Avila 1515.67 +50.07 55.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sijara Eubanks 122, Julia Avila 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#12] Matt Schnell (14-5-0, -106) vs. [#58] Tyson Nam (19-11-1, -119)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Schnell (2-1-0)
2019-12-21: L vs. [#6FLY] Alexandre Pantoja (22-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1
2019-08-03: W vs. [#22FLY] Jordan Espinosa (15-7-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:23 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#142BW] Louis Smolka (16-7-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Nam (1-2-0)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#959BW] Zarrukh Adashev (3-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:32 of round 1
2020-02-22: L vs. [#13FLY] Kai Kara-France (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#27BW] Sergio Pettis (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tyson Nam -119 51.36%
Elo K170 Matt Schnell 1655.84 +222.88 73.46%
Elo Modified Matt Schnell 1607.82 +158.29 66.66%
Glicko-1 Matt Schnell 1623.62 +141.23 69.28%
WHR Matt Schnell 1558.56 +120.28 63.40%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Schnell 266, Tyson Nam 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#195] Frank Camacho (23-9-0, -217) vs. [#220] Brok Weaver (15-5-0, +175)

Last 3 Fights: Frank Camacho (1-2-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#185FW] Justin Jaynes (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2019-10-26: L vs. [#10LW] Beneil Dariush (19-4-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:02 of round 1
2019-06-01: W vs. [*] Nick Hein (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:56 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Brok Weaver (2-1-0)
2020-05-30: L vs. [#73LW] Roosevelt Roberts (10-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2020-02-15: W vs. [#355LW] Rodrigo Vargas (11-4-0) via Disqualification (Illegal Knee) in 4:02 of round 1
2019-08-13: W vs. [#552WW] Devin Smyth (9-3-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Frank Camacho -217 65.30%
Elo K170 Brok Weaver 1518.61 +119.51 63.32%
Elo Modified Brok Weaver 1436.36 +32.85 53.59%
Glicko-1 Frank Camacho 1398.57 +39.86 55.71%
WHR Frank Camacho 1413.90 +51.69 55.88%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frank Camacho 84, Brok Weaver 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#50] Billy Quarantillo (14-2-0, -215) vs. [#162] Kyle Nelson (13-3-0, +174)

Last 3 Fights: Billy Quarantillo (3-0-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#181LW] Spike Carlyle (9-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#216FW] Jacob Kilburn (8-3-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 2
2019-07-23: W vs. [#264FW] Kamuela Kirk (9-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Nelson (1-2-0)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#399FW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:36 of round 1
2019-05-04: L vs. [#201FW] Matt Sayles (8-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 3
2018-12-08: L vs. [#6LW] Diego Ferreira (17-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:23 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Billy Quarantillo -215 65.15%
Elo K170 Billy Quarantillo 1722.52 +227.15 73.84%
Elo Modified Billy Quarantillo 1740.55 +246.19 74.60%
Glicko-1 Billy Quarantillo 1798.88 +327.36 86.81%
WHR Billy Quarantillo 1666.41 +202.86 71.64%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Billy Quarantillo 105, Kyle Nelson 357
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#94] Bryan Barberena (14-7-0, -263) vs. [#185] Anthony Ivy (8-3-0, +211)

Last 3 Fights: Bryan Barberena (1-2-0)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#51WW] Randy Brown (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:54 of round 3
2019-02-17: L vs. [#15WW] Vicente Luque (19-7-1) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:54 of round 3
2018-08-25: W vs. [*] Jake Ellenberger (31-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Ivy (2-1-0)
2020-06-13: L vs. [#131WW] Christian Aguilera (14-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:59 of round 1
2019-09-25: W vs. [#193WW] Willis Black (7-3-0) via TKO in 2:14 of round 4
2019-06-29: W vs. [#454WW] Jason Langellier (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bryan Barberena -263 69.26%
Elo K170 Bryan Barberena 1520.33 +55.70 56.33%
Elo Modified Bryan Barberena 1550.69 +68.13 57.40%
Glicko-1 Bryan Barberena 1567.93 +77.80 61.01%
WHR Bryan Barberena 1558.12 +168.85 68.38%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryan Barberena 448, Anthony Ivy 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#73] Roosevelt Roberts (10-2-0, -116) vs. [#116] Matt Frevola (8-1-1, -108)

Last 3 Fights: Roosevelt Roberts (2-1-0)
2020-06-20: L vs. [#44LW] Jim Miller (32-15-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1
2020-05-30: W vs. [#220LW] Brok Weaver (15-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:26 of round 2
2019-11-09: W vs. [#106LW] Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Matt Frevola (2-0-1)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#128LW] Luis Pena (8-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#169LW] Jalin Turner (9-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: D vs. [#47LW] Lando Vannata (11-5-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Roosevelt Roberts -116 50.84%
Elo K170 Roosevelt Roberts 1637.84 +23.83 52.72%
Elo Modified Roosevelt Roberts 1630.54 +57.77 56.29%
Glicko-1 Roosevelt Roberts 1654.17 +104.47 64.60%
WHR Roosevelt Roberts 1570.71 +78.19 58.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Roosevelt Roberts 84, Matt Frevola 336
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#31] Justine Kish (7-2-0, +226) vs. [#32] Sabina Mazo (8-1-0, -282)

Last 3 Fights: Justine Kish (1-2-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#43FLY] Lucie Pudilova (8-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-01-27: L vs. [#61FLY] Ji Yeon Kim (9-3-2) via UD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-06-25: L vs. [#35SW] Felice Herrig (14-9-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-26)

Last 3 Fights: Sabina Mazo (2-1-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#42FLY] J.J. Aldrich (8-4-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-08-17: W vs. [#37FLY] Shana Dobson (4-4-0) via UD (30-25, 30-24, 30-25)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#15FLY] Maryna Moroz (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Sabina Mazo -282 70.64%
Elo K170 Sabina Mazo 1461.88 +118.17 63.18%
Elo Modified Sabina Mazo 1482.49 +83.12 59.00%
Glicko-1 Sabina Mazo 1397.42 +42.89 56.14%
WHR Sabina Mazo 1416.49 +28.57 53.26%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justine Kish 231, Sabina Mazo 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Lightweight (155)
[#50] Khama Worthy (16-6-0, -134) vs. [#122] Ottman Azaitar (12-0-0, +109)

Last 3 Fights: Khama Worthy (3-0-0)
2020-06-27: W vs. [#128LW] Luis Pena (8-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:53 of round 3
2019-08-17: W vs. [#101LW] Devonte Smith (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:15 of round 1
2019-07-27: W vs. [#575LW] Adam Ward (18-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:13 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Ottman Azaitar (3-0-0)
2019-09-07: W vs. [#480LW] Teemu Packalen (8-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:33 of round 1
2018-08-18: W vs. [#1242LW] Danijel Kokora (21-16-0) via TKO in 0:32 of round 1
2017-11-17: W vs. [#551LW] Alejandro Martinez (6-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:16 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khama Worthy -134 54.47%
Elo K170 Khama Worthy 1714.73 +55.73 56.33%
Elo Modified Khama Worthy 1733.09 +43.55 54.75%
Glicko-1 Khama Worthy 1765.19 +33.65 54.83%
WHR Ottman Azaitar 1626.55 +6.98 50.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Khama Worthy 77, Ottman Azaitar 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Bobby Green
Highest Stored DD Rating: Matt Schnell
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Bobby Green vs. Alan Patrick Silva Alves
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Low [**]
Run Date: 2020-9-6