Fight Matrix Program – UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje (05-09-2020)

3 May , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight Championship (155)
[#2/#6DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0, -179) vs. [#4] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0, +150)
Tony Ferguson is the All-Time #10 ranked Lightweight and #49 ranked Absolute fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #29 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tony Ferguson (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#20WW] Donald Cerrone (36-14-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2018-10-06: W vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (22-10-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2017-10-07: W vs. [#8LW] Kevin Lee (18-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:02 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (3-0-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#20WW] Donald Cerrone (36-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#15LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-08-25: W vs. [#113WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tony Ferguson – Win%: 61.59
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tony Ferguson (2326.98) [+147.38] – Win%: 66.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tony Ferguson (2265.16) [+142.16] – Win%: 65.07
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Tony Ferguson (2285.64) [+124.10] – Win%: 71.07
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tony Ferguson 336, Justin Gaethje 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Justin Gaethje leads 3-2
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#1/#9DD/#2P4P] Henry Cejudo (15-2-0, -222) vs. [*] Dominick Cruz (22-2-0, +181)
Henry Cejudo is the All-Time #15 ranked Bantamweight fighter.
Dominick Cruz is the All-Time #1 ranked Bantamweight and #33 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Henry Cejudo (3-0-0)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-01-19: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:32 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#8BW/#3P4P] Demetrious Johnson (30-3-1) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Dominick Cruz (2-1-0)
2016-12-30: L vs. [#25BW] Cody Garbrandt (11-3-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-47)
2016-06-04: W vs. [#16BW] Urijah Faber (35-11-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2016-01-17: W vs. [*] T.J. Dillashaw (16-4-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 49-46)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Henry Cejudo – Win%: 65.95
Elo Favorite (Standard): Henry Cejudo (2247.66) [+229.12] – Win%: 74.01
Elo Favorite (Modified): Henry Cejudo (2163.15) [+213.73] – Win%: 71.82
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Henry Cejudo (2199.49) [+209.55] – Win%: 81.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Henry Cejudo 336, Dominick Cruz 1226
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dominick Cruz leads 4-2
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Francis Ngannou (14-3-0, -285) vs. [#7] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (10-0-0, +229)
Francis Ngannou is the All-Time #26 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Francis Ngannou (3-0-0)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#6HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:11 of round 1
2019-02-17: W vs. [#26HW+] Cain Velasquez (14-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:26 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#4HW+] Curtis Blaydes (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-0-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:56 of round 5
2019-11-02: W vs. [#38HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-06-22: W vs. [#147HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:09 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Francis Ngannou – Win%: 70.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Francis Ngannou (2149.39) [+337.67] – Win%: 82.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Francis Ngannou (2133.52) [+301.99] – Win%: 78.95
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Francis Ngannou (2117.05) [+278.58] – Win%: 88.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francis Ngannou 315, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#12] Calvin Kattar (20-4-0, -241) vs. [#13] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0, +194)
Jeremy Stephens is the All-Time #17 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Calvin Kattar (2-1-0)
2019-11-09: L vs. [#5FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (18-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-06-08: W vs. [#17FW] Ricardo Lamas (19-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:06 of round 1
2018-10-27: W vs. [#127FW] Chris Fishgold (18-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jeremy Stephens (0-2-0, 1 NC)
2019-10-18: L vs. [#11FW] Yair Rodriguez (13-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-09-21: NC vs. [#11FW] Yair Rodriguez (13-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#5FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (18-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Calvin Kattar – Win%: 67.51
Elo Favorite (Standard): Calvin Kattar (1836.27) [+87.19] – Win%: 59.83
Elo Favorite (Modified): Calvin Kattar (1824.77) [+77.54] – Win%: 58.40
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Calvin Kattar (1815.01) [+51.33] – Win%: 59.58
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Calvin Kattar 182, Jeremy Stephens 204
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#103] Greg Hardy (5-2-0, -199) vs. [#143] Yorgan De Castro (6-0-0, +166)

Last 3 Fights: Greg Hardy (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2019-11-09: L vs. [#9HW+] Alexander Volkov (31-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-18: NC vs. [#162HW+] Ben Sosoli (7-3-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#209HW+] Juan Adams (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:45 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yorgan De Castro (3-0-0)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#172HW+] Justin Tafa (4-1-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:10 of round 1
2019-06-18: W vs. [#433HW+] Sanford Alton Meeks (3-1-0) via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2019-01-19: W vs. [#585HW+] Carlton Little Sr. (6-7-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Greg Hardy – Win%: 63.90
Elo Favorite (Standard): Greg Hardy (1398.50) [+24.30] – Win%: 52.77
Elo Favorite (Modified): Greg Hardy (1558.08) [+120.75] – Win%: 62.92
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Greg Hardy (1478.21) [+72.31] – Win%: 63.80
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Greg Hardy 182, Yorgan De Castro 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#20] Donald Cerrone (36-14-0, +119) vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (22-10-0, -142)
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #43 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Anthony Pettis is the All-Time #39 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (0-3-0)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#10WW] Conor McGregor (22-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1
2019-09-14: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (1-2-0)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#6LW] Diego Ferreira (17-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 2
2019-08-17: L vs. [#12WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#7WW] Stephen Thompson (15-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 4:55 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Anthony Pettis – Win%: 56.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Donald Cerrone (1939.94) [+60.28] – Win%: 56.84
Elo Favorite (Modified): Donald Cerrone (1898.33) [+33.00] – Win%: 53.60
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Donald Cerrone (1903.23) [+14.70] – Win%: 52.71
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 112, Anthony Pettis 112
Previous Match-up Record: Anthony Pettis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Donald Cerrone leads 7-6
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Heavyweight (265)
[*] Fabricio Werdum (23-8-1, -314) vs. [#17] Alexey Oleynik (60-13-1, +249)
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (2-1-0)
2018-03-17: L vs. [#9HW+] Alexander Volkov (31-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 4
2017-11-18: W vs. [#24HW+] Marcin Tybura (18-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2017-10-07: W vs. [#13HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2020-01-18: W vs. [#57HW+] Maurice Greene (8-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:38 of round 2
2019-07-20: L vs. [#13HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#8HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Fabricio Werdum – Win%: 72.58
Elo Favorite (Standard): Fabricio Werdum (1936.62) [+239.51] – Win%: 74.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Fabricio Werdum (2002.12) [+263.44] – Win%: 76.01
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Fabricio Werdum (1939.14) [+198.63] – Win%: 81.96
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fabricio Werdum 784, Alexey Oleynik 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Fabricio Werdum leads 5-2
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#6] Carla Esparza (15-6-0, -158) vs. [#11] Michelle Waterson (17-7-0, +133)
Carla Esparza is the All-Time #46 ranked Women’s fighter.
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #36 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carla Esparza (2-1-0)
2019-09-21: W vs. [#17SW] Alexa Grasso (11-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#19SW] Virna Jandiroba (15-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#5SW] Tatiana Suarez (8-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:33 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#3SW/#7DD/#10P4P] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#24SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: W vs. [*] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Carla Esparza – Win%: 58.79
Elo Favorite (Standard): Carla Esparza (1675.26) [+112.82] – Win%: 62.61
Elo Favorite (Modified): Carla Esparza (1673.65) [+141.97] – Win%: 65.05
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Carla Esparza (1651.13) [+80.84] – Win%: 64.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carla Esparza 231, Michelle Waterson 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carla Esparza leads 4-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#9LHW] Ronaldo Souza (26-8-0, -124) vs. [#16] Uriah Hall (15-9-0, +101)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #9 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (1-2-0)
2019-11-16: L vs. [#3LHW] Jan Blachowicz (26-8-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#10MW] Jack Hermansson (20-5-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#13MW] Chris Weidman (14-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:46 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Uriah Hall (2-1-0)
2019-09-14: W vs. [#19MW] Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-12-29: W vs. [#126MW] Bevon Lewis (7-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:32 of round 3
2018-07-07: L vs. [#2MW] Paulo Henrique Costa (13-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:36 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ronaldo Souza – Win%: 52.66
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ronaldo Souza (1908.73) [+83.62] – Win%: 59.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ronaldo Souza (2022.57) [+215.41] – Win%: 71.97
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ronaldo Souza (1998.94) [+223.56] – Win%: 84.56
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ronaldo Souza 175, Uriah Hall 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ronaldo Souza leads 4-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#25] Vicente Luque (17-7-1, -276) vs. [#47] Niko Price (14-3-0, +223)

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#7WW] Stephen Thompson (15-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#29WW] Mike Perry (13-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-18: W vs. [#107WW] Derrick Krantz (24-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#113WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Upkick) in 1:44 of round 1
2019-07-27: L vs. [#21WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 2
2019-03-09: W vs. [#77WW] Tim Means (29-12-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:50 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Vicente Luque – Win%: 70.33
Elo Favorite (Standard): Vicente Luque (1867.65) [+124.19] – Win%: 63.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Vicente Luque (1849.83) [+89.19] – Win%: 59.64
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Vicente Luque (1836.73) [+70.21] – Win%: 62.89
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 189, Niko Price 210
Previous Match-up Record: Vicente Luque leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#57] Bryce Mitchell (12-0-0, -161) vs. [#137] Charles Rosa (12-3-0, +135)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (3-0-0)
2019-12-07: W vs. [#206FW] Matt Sayles (8-3-0) via Submission (Twister) in 4:20 of round 1
2019-03-23: W vs. [#94FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-06: W vs. [#147FW] Tyler Diamond (11-1-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Rosa (2-1-0)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#163LW] Manny Bermudez (15-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:46 of round 1
2017-04-08: L vs. [#18FW] Shane Burgos (13-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 3
2016-01-17: W vs. [#188FW] Kyle Bochniak (8-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Bryce Mitchell – Win%: 59.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Bryce Mitchell (1728.29) [+206.46] – Win%: 71.97
Elo Favorite (Modified): Bryce Mitchell (1733.40) [+166.46] – Win%: 67.45
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Bryce Mitchell (1692.32) [+109.30] – Win%: 69.57
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 154, Charles Rosa 204
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#16] Ryan Spann (17-5-0) vs. [#37] Sam Alvey (33-13-0)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#56LHW] Devin Clark (11-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2
2019-05-11: W vs. [#24LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2018-09-22: W vs. [#51HW+] Luis Henrique Barbosa de (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sam Alvey (0-3-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#31LHW] Klidson Abreu (15-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#27LHW] Jim Crute (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 1
2018-09-22: L vs. [#24LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 2

Elo Favorite (Standard): Ryan Spann (1818.22) [+272.84] – Win%: 77.67
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ryan Spann (1832.96) [+285.53] – Win%: 77.73
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ryan Spann (1818.43) [+264.84] – Win%: 88.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 210, Sam Alvey 294
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ryan Spann leads 2-1
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Tony Ferguson
Highest Stored DD Rating: Tony Ferguson
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Very Large [****]
Run Date: 2020-5-3