Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 28: Lee vs. Oliveira (03-14-2020)

9 Mar , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#6] Kevin Lee (18-5-0, -142) vs. [#8] Charles Oliveira (28-8-0, +116)
Kevin Lee is the All-Time #36 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Charles Oliveira is the All-Time #38 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Lee (1-2-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#22LW] Gregor Gillespie (13-1-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:47 of round 1
2019-05-18: L vs. [#11WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:47 of round 4
2018-12-15: L vs. [#13LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2019-11-16: W vs. [#110LW] Jared Gordon (15-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:26 of round 1
2019-05-18: W vs. [#47FW] Nik Lentz (30-11-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 2
2019-02-02: W vs. [#46LW] David Teymur (8-2-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 0:55 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kevin Lee – Win%: 55.89
Elo Favorite (Standard): Charles Oliveira (2066.44) [+60.69] – Win%: 56.89
Elo Favorite (Modified): Charles Oliveira (2065.30) [+97.23] – Win%: 60.49
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Charles Oliveira (2069.93) [+94.71] – Win%: 66.80
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Lee 133, Charles Oliveira 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#8] Demian Maia (28-9-0, +167) vs. [#20] Gilbert Burns (17-3-0, -204)
Demian Maia is the All-Time #15 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Demian Maia (3-0-0)
2019-10-26: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:54 of round 3
2019-06-29: W vs. [#16WW] Anthony Rocco Martin (17-5-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#39WW] Lyman Good (21-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (3-0-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#22WW] Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#49WW] Alexey Kunchenko (20-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#239LW] Mike Davis (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gilbert Burns – Win%: 64.18
Elo Favorite (Standard): Demian Maia (2157.98) [+147.30] – Win%: 66.22
Elo Favorite (Modified): Demian Maia (2107.18) [+101.42] – Win%: 60.92
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Demian Maia (2107.75) [+74.81] – Win%: 63.32
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demian Maia 140, Gilbert Burns 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#15] Randa Markos (10-7-1, +216) vs. [#22] Amanda Ribas (8-1-0, -270)

Last 3 Fights: Randa Markos (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#37SW] Ashley Yoder (7-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#8SW] Claudia Gadelha (17-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#16SW] Angela Hill (12-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:24 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#42SW] Mackenzie Dern (7-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-06-29: W vs. [#70SW] Emily Whitmire (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:10 of round 2
2016-05-21: W vs. [#54SW] Jennifer Gonzalez Araneda (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:42 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Amanda Ribas – Win%: 69.74
Elo Favorite (Standard): Amanda Ribas (1487.35) [+16.28] – Win%: 51.86
Elo Favorite (Modified): Amanda Ribas (1553.11) [+119.16] – Win%: 62.75
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Amanda Ribas (1518.47) [+71.74] – Win%: 63.31
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randa Markos 140, Amanda Ribas 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#18FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1, -311) vs. [#68] Damir Hadzovic (13-5-0, +245)

Last 3 Fights: Renato Carneiro (1-2-0)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#4FW] Chan Sung Jung (16-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 1
2019-02-02: L vs. [#4BW] Jose Aldo (28-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2
2018-08-04: W vs. [#25FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Damir Hadzovic (2-1-0)
2019-06-01: L vs. [#55LW] Christos Giagos (17-8-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#443FW] Marco Polo Reyes (8-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:03 of round 2
2018-07-22: W vs. [*] Nick Hein (14-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Renato Carneiro – Win%: 72.30
Elo Favorite (Standard): Renato Carneiro (1784.90) [+161.72] – Win%: 67.67
Elo Favorite (Modified): Renato Carneiro (1772.03) [+166.52] – Win%: 67.46
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Renato Carneiro (1733.49) [+81.73] – Win%: 64.68
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Renato Carneiro 266, Damir Hadzovic 287
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Nikita Krylov (25-7-0, +119) vs. [#28] Johnny Walker (17-4-0, -145)

Last 3 Fights: Nikita Krylov (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#11LHW] Glover Teixeira (30-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#22LHW] Ovince St. Preux (24-13-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-09-15: L vs. [#3LHW] Jan Blachowicz (26-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:41 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (2-1-0)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#9LHW] Corey Anderson (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#21LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1
2019-02-02: W vs. [#171LHW] Justin Ledet (9-3-0) via TKO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches) in 0:15 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Johnny Walker – Win%: 56.44
Elo Favorite (Standard): Nikita Krylov (1739.87) [+9.47] – Win%: 51.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Nikita Krylov (1823.42) [+66.39] – Win%: 57.21
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Nikita Krylov (1811.61) [+105.42] – Win%: 69.26
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nikita Krylov 182, Johnny Walker 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Johnny Walker leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#174] David Dvorak (17-3-0, +100) vs. [#367] Bruno Silva (10-4-2, -123)

Last 3 Fights: David Dvorak (3-0-0)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#340FLY] Arsen Taigibov (15-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2019-04-06: W vs. [#696FLY] Igor Goncharov (5-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:10 of round 1
2018-12-27: W vs. [#1568LW] Zaka Fatullazade (16-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (2-1-0)
2019-10-05: L vs. [#93BW] Khalid Taha (14-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:00 of round 3
2018-10-27: W vs. [#681BW] Ralph Acosta (17-14-0) via UD ()
2017-08-19: W vs. [*] Joe Madrid (6-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Bruno Silva – Win%: 52.45
Elo Favorite (Standard): David Dvorak (1602.90) [+226.76] – Win%: 73.81
Elo Favorite (Modified): David Dvorak (1598.83) [+204.80] – Win%: 71.02
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): David Dvorak (1619.12) [+259.80] – Win%: 88.49
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Dvorak 231, Bruno Silva 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#20] Francisco Trinaldo (24-7-0, -189) vs. [#51] John Makdessi (17-6-0, +159)

Last 3 Fights: Francisco Trinaldo (2-1-0)
2019-11-16: W vs. [#75LW] Bobby Green (24-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#10LW] Alexander Hernandez (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-22: W vs. [*] Evan Dunham (18-8-1) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 4:10 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: John Makdessi (3-0-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#146FW] Jesus Pinedo (18-5-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#364WW] Ross Pearson (20-17-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-27)
2017-12-16: W vs. [*] Abel Trujillo (14-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Francisco Trinaldo – Win%: 62.87
Elo Favorite (Standard): Francisco Trinaldo (1841.42) [+99.78] – Win%: 61.20
Elo Favorite (Modified): Francisco Trinaldo (1837.55) [+103.84] – Win%: 61.17
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Francisco Trinaldo (1827.58) [+85.47] – Win%: 65.40
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Francisco Trinaldo 119, John Makdessi 357
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Francisco Trinaldo leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#37] Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (21-6-0, -144) vs. [#49] Alexey Kunchenko (20-1-0, +120)

Last 3 Fights: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2-1-0)
2019-08-31: L vs. [#36WW] Jingliang Li (17-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:51 of round 3
2019-03-09: W vs. [#57MW] Curtis Millender (18-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:35 of round 1
2018-09-22: W vs. [*] Luigi Vendramini (8-1-0) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:20 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Kunchenko (2-1-0)
2019-08-10: L vs. [#20WW] Gilbert Burns (17-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#88MW] Yushin Okami (36-14-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2018-09-15: W vs. [#87WW] Thiago Alves (23-15-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos – Win%: 56.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Kunchenko (1884.95) [+1.14] – Win%: 50.13
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Kunchenko (1889.66) [+4.57] – Win%: 50.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexey Kunchenko (1897.00) [+29.89] – Win%: 55.53
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 196, Alexey Kunchenko 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#66FW] Enrique Barzola (17-5-1, -162) vs. [#40] Rani Yahya (26-10-0, +135)
Rani Yahya is the All-Time #28 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Enrique Barzola (1-2-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#41FW] Movsar Evloev (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#97FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#54FW] Kevin Aguilar (17-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Rani Yahya (2-1-0)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#31BW] Ricky Simon (16-3-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#39BW] Luke Sanders (13-3-0) via Submission (Heel Hook) in 1:31 of round 1
2018-02-24: W vs. [#86BW] Russell Doane (16-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:32 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Enrique Barzola – Win%: 59.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rani Yahya (1686.66) [+50.07] – Win%: 55.69
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rani Yahya (1707.48) [+93.69] – Win%: 60.11
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Rani Yahya (1712.82) [+103.44] – Win%: 68.73
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Enrique Barzola 140, Rani Yahya 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#3] Jussier Formiga (23-6-0, -178) vs. [#7] Brandon Moreno (16-5-1, +149)
Jussier Formiga is the All-Time #6 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Brandon Moreno is the All-Time #24 ranked Flyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jussier Formiga (2-1-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#2FLY] Joseph Benavidez (28-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:47 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [#1FLY] Deiveson Figueiredo (18-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#29BW] Sergio Pettis (19-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Brandon Moreno (2-0-1)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#16FLY] Kai Kara-France (21-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-09-21: D vs. [#6FLY] Askar Askarov (11-0-1) via Draw (Split) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-06-07: W vs. [#49FLY] Maikel Perez (6-2-0) via TKO in 1:54 of round 4

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jussier Formiga – Win%: 61.45
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jussier Formiga (1892.16) [+135.36] – Win%: 64.99
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jussier Formiga (1899.23) [+204.47] – Win%: 70.99
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jussier Formiga (1875.24) [+136.56] – Win%: 73.37
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier Formiga 259, Brandon Moreno 91
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jussier Formiga leads 3-1
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#20] Maryna Moroz (9-3-0, +116) vs. [*] Mayra Bueno Silva (5-0-0, -140)

Last 3 Fights: Maryna Moroz (1-2-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#32FLY] Sabina Mazo (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#16SW] Angela Hill (12-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-06-25: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mayra Bueno Silva (3-0-0)
2018-09-22: W vs. [#29FLY] Gillian Robertson (7-4-0) via Submission (Ambar) in 4:55 of round 1
2018-08-10: W vs. [#32BW] Mayana Souza dos Santos (8-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:02 of round 1
2017-03-11: W vs. [#59BW] Daiane Firmino (10-5-0) via SD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mayra Bueno Silva – Win%: 55.74
Elo Favorite (Standard): Mayra Bueno Silva (1481.66) [+50.34] – Win%: 55.72
Elo Favorite (Modified): Mayra Bueno Silva (1503.92) [+30.89] – Win%: 53.38
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Mayra Bueno Silva (1486.12) [+34.87] – Win%: 56.56
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Maryna Moroz 350, Mayra Bueno Silva 539
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#40] Bea Malecki (3-0-0, +171) vs. [#72FLY] Veronica Macedo (6-3-1, -207)

Last 3 Fights: Bea Malecki (3-0-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#69BW] Duda Santana (3-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:59 of round 2
2018-02-02: W vs. [NA] Tracy Smith (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 1
2017-11-04: W vs. [NA] Faith Davis (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:59 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Veronica Macedo (1-2-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#102FLY] Polyana Viana (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:09 of round 1
2019-02-23: L vs. [#29FLY] Gillian Robertson (7-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:27 of round 2
2018-05-19: L vs. [#19FLY] Andrea Lee (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Veronica Macedo – Win%: 64.63
Elo Favorite (Standard): Veronica Macedo (1198.57) [+7.21] – Win%: 50.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Bea Malecki (1316.28) [+65.34] – Win%: 57.10
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Bea Malecki (1250.41) [+29.76] – Win%: 55.91
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bea Malecki 287, Veronica Macedo 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Demian Maia
Highest Stored DD Rating: Jussier Formiga
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Large [***½]
Run Date: 2020-3-8