Bang for Your Buck: UFC 185

With two title fights topping the Pay-Per-View card, UFC 185 is off to a strong start. Add a fairly solid undercard, and you get an event that might actually be worth the asking price. This is what all PPV cards should look like. Unfortunately, I have very little interest in the women’s strawweight title bout – in fact it may be the least interest I have in a UFC title fight since Andrei Arlovski vs late Justin Eilers back at UFC 53.  Nonetheless, this is a very good card, at least on paper.

Main Event: (C) [#1 LW] Anthony Pettis vs [#3 LW] Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC Lightweight Title

Worth: $22.50

Why: After submitting Ben Henderson to win the LW title, Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis suffered an injury and was forced to take a long layoff.  Meanwhile, the division came to a rolling boil,  with no shortage of contenders lined up for a crack at the champion.  Pettis made a triumphant return and defended his title with another submission win against Gilbert Melendez.   His next defense should have been against the undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov, however Khabib’s own injuries and inactivity allowed a man he defeated – Rafael dos Anjos – to jump in front of the line.

For a guy with 17 fights in UFC, dos Anjos has flew under the radar for a while, stuck in the middle of the pack and losing fights to gatekeepers like Clay Guida and Gleison Tibau.  In the past few years, Rafael evolved into an elite fighter.  He is 8-1 since 2011, his sole loss a decision to Nurmagomedov.  And in his last two fights, dos Anjos has shown just how dangerous he has become, stopping former champ Henderson and brutally dominating Nate Diaz.  He is not as flashy as ‘Showtime’, but probably just as well rounded.  With two top fighters in their prime, who both have all the tools of MMA in their arsenal, this should be a great fight. It’s not quite a Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier, long awaited #1 vs #2  type of fight, but this is almost as good as it gets.

Co-Main Event: (C) [#2 W115] Carla Esparza vs [#3 W115] Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the UFC Women’s Strawweight Title

Worth: $2.50

Why: I made my feelings on WMMA clear in the UFC 184 installment of ‘Bang for Your Buck’.  At least the bantamweight division has the Ronda Rousey factor going for it, and has had a couple of years to shape up.  Women’s strawweight on the other hand is fresh out of the oven, and the inaugural title was crowned by the means of an Ultimate Fighter tournament.  By the time TUF 20 rolled around, my interest in the reality show has waned from ‘must-watch TV’, to ‘DVR and fast-forward to the fights’, to ‘I just don’t care’.  So my only real exposure to this division was the TUF 20 finale, plus the sloppy and completely forgettable fight between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha (neither of whom were on TUF 20), which earned Jedrzejczyk the first shot at the new title.  All in all, I am just not that interested in this fight or this division yet, but I’ll give UFC credit for trying to build it up.  On the plus side, it’s a very close fight, with the champ only a slight favorite; an uncommon occurrence in UFC title bouts.   You can check out the fight odds at Carbon Sportsbook.

Fight: [#3 WW] Johny Hendricks vs [#11 WW] Matt Brown 

Worth: $20

Why: Matt Brown is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC today, so any fight with him in it will get a high valuation – Matt Brown just doesn’t do boring fights.  Johny Hendricks occasionally does, as his KO power diminishes greatly beyond the first round and he relies more on his wrestling later in the fight.  I don’t think he will knock out Brown, and while he should be able to handily out-wrestle Matt, Brown’s scrambling ability leaves me hoping that he won’t just be held down for three rounds.  I really wish this were a five-round fight though, especially since the winner is most probably going to get a shot at the winner of the upcoming title scrap between champ Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald.

Fight: [#8 HW] Alistair Overeem vs  [#13 HW] Roy Nelson

Worth: $10

Why: I might be overvaluing this fight a bit, as both fighters are on the downward slope of their career, both lost 3 of their last 5, and neither is likely to sniff a title shot at this point.  But it’s the paper-thin heavyweight division, so I’ll take what I can get.  And if Nelson manages to land the overhand right or an uppercut that puts ‘The Reem’ to sleep: priceless.

Fight: [#12 FLW] Chris Cariaso vs [#73 BW] Henry Cejudo

Worth: $5

Why: The biggest question of this fight is whether Cejudo can make 125 lbs.  He has failed twice so far with disastrous results, was banished to the bantamweight division, but now has been given yet another chance to make the flyweight limit.  If he does, he is in for a scrap against Chris Cariaso, who is a very good fighter despite being over-matched in his last bout against the champ Demetrious Johnson.  I remain in doubt that this bout will really take place, until I actually see Cejudo make weight the day before the fight.

Prelims (Fox Sports 1)

Fight: [#32 LW] Ross Pearson vs [#115 LW] Sam Stout

Worth: $2.50

Why: After starting his UFC career with three wins, Ross ‘Real Deal’ Pearson has been alternating wins and losses for most of the recent years.  Sam ‘Hands of Stone’ Stout has been doing more or less the same, except for a bit longer.  Both guys are coming off TKO losses, and neither is going anywhere fast in the packed lightweight division.  This will likely be a display of mediocre kickboxing, but the possibility of a knockout leaves me mildly interested.

Fight:  [#28 LW] Beneil Dariush vs [#41 LW] Daron Cruickshank

Worth: $5

Why: This is an interesting match-up of styles between a kickboxer with limited but improving ground game, and a submission master with sloppy striking.  It’s always interesting to see who can impose their will in this type of contest; especially since both guys are young and have future potential.  Cruikshank has gotten a raw deal with the eye pokes in his last fight against KJ Noons; I am hoping that he was able to fully recover his eyesight after the gnarly injury.

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Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $60
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $0.01

Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $7.50
Fox Sports 1 Prelims Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $5.50

Event Net Value: $5.51

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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $0
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $29.97
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-24.97

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PPV YTD Worth: $203.50
PPV YTD Cost: $239.96
Net Value: $-36.46

Fox Sports 1 YTD Worth: $67.00
Fox Sports 1 YTD Valuation: $25
Net Value: $42

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $32.50

Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $38.04