Fight Matrix

Featherweight (145)
[#15] Edson Barboza (24-11-0, +132) vs. [#38] Lerone Murphy (13-0-1, -158)

Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (2-1-0)
2023-10-14: W vs. [#47FW] Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 49-46)
2023-04-15: W vs. [#44FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 2:37 of round 1
2022-03-05: L vs. [#16FW] Bryce Mitchell (16-2-0) via UD (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Lerone Murphy (3-0-0)
2023-07-22: W vs. [#108FW] Joshua Culibao (12-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2023-03-18: W vs. [#116FW] Gabriel Santos (10-2-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-10-30: W vs. [#394LW] Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0) via KO (Knee) in 0:14 of round 2

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Lerone Murphy	-158		58.69%
Elo K170	Edson Barboza	1917.98	+29.54	54.24%
Elo Modified	Edson Barboza	1926.08	+99.78	63.98%
Glicko-1	Edson Barboza	1973.01	+127.67	67.59%
WHR	Edson Barboza	1795.98	+1.44	50.21%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edson Barboza 217, Lerone Murphy 301
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#39] Carlston Harris (19-5-0, +118) vs. [#53] Kalinn Williams (14-3-0, -142)

Last 3 Fights: Carlston Harris (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: W vs. [#59WW] Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1) via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2023-03-11: W vs. [#62WW] Jared Gooden (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-05: L vs. [#5WW] Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0-0) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kalinn Williams (2-1-0)
2023-05-06: W vs. [#168WW] Rolando Bedoya (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2022-05-07: L vs. [#23WW] Randy Brown (18-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2021-11-13: W vs. [*] Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:02 of round 3

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Kalinn Williams	-142		56.12%
Elo K170	Carlston Harris	1886.25	+136.39	68.68%
Elo Modified	Carlston Harris	1884.04	+140.04	69.13%
Glicko-1	Carlston Harris	1937.50	+155.94	71.05%
WHR	Carlston Harris	1943.64	+305.55	85.31%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlston Harris 287, Kalinn Williams 378
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlston Harris leads 1-0
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#9] Angela Hill (16-13-0, -157) vs. [#29] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0, +130)

Last 3 Fights: Angela Hill (2-1-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#19SW] Denise Gomes (8-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via UD (49-44, 49-44, 49-43)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#21SW] Emily Ducote (13-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Luana Pinheiro (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: L vs. [#14FLY] Amanda Ribas (12-5-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-04-08: W vs. [#54SW] Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2021-11-20: W vs. [#49SW] Sam Hughes (8-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Angela Hill	-157		58.42%
Elo K170	Angela Hill	1585.39	+110.66	65.41%
Elo Modified	Angela Hill	1637.50	+192.11	75.14%
Glicko-1	Angela Hill	1633.90	+209.18	76.92%
WHR	Angela Hill	1519.59	+153.29	70.73%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Angela Hill 196, Luana Pinheiro 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Luana Pinheiro leads 2-0
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Are you ready to step into the electrifying world of UFC betting? We get it – you’re keen to add some extra thrill to the experience and make some money at the same time. But, before you rush to place your bets, getting the lowdown on how to navigate the fights game is essential.

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Another good week for the “safe” bets, another bad one for the others.

As touched upon in the last post, bets like Tim Means and Karolina K were not wise picks due to their advanced ages (from a professional fighting standpoint). Through some analysis, I’ve discovered that the prime fighting age (by win%) is somewhere around 23. Furthermore, Karolina (38) was 16 years older than her opponent. Historically, a 22 year old has beaten a 38 year old, more than 75% of the time. In the case of betting underdogs especially, I will be factoring this in at some degree. Specifics TBD.

Therefore, I’m going to consider ages when deciding on picks going forward. I am working on an automated method for this, but for now, it will be manual.

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event). Reduces uncertainty.
Both fighters must have at least 5 fights, with at least 1 draw or 1 loss (excluding debut). More data makes WHR happy.
Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight. Further reduces uncertainty.
Must have odds from at least three bookmakers.

Now for the options…

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In recent years, the worlds of esports and combat sports have seen a fascinating convergence, particularly in the realm of CS:GO gambling and MMA fighting. The high-stakes nature of crash betting and the adrenaline-fueled excitement of mixed martial arts have drawn a dedicated and passionate fan base. This article explores the intersection of these two seemingly disparate worlds and the unique appeal they hold for thrill-seekers and risk-takers alike.

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Heavyweight (265)
[#15] Derrick Lewis (27-12-0, -153) vs. [#23] Rodrigo Nascimento (12-1-0, +125)
Derrick Lewis is the All-Time #25 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Derrick Lewis (1-2-0)
2023-11-04: L vs. [#8HW+] Jailton Almeida (20-3-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
2023-07-29: W vs. [#24HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (22-9-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 1
2023-02-04: L vs. [#10HW+] Sergey Spivak (16-4-0) via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) in 3:05 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Rodrigo Nascimento (3-0-0)
2023-11-04: W vs. [#54HW+] Dontale Mayes (11-7-0) via UD ()
2023-05-20: W vs. [#25HW+] Ilir Latifi (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2022-09-17: W vs. [#68LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Derrick Lewis	-153		57.63%
Elo K170	Derrick Lewis	1764.71	+21.43	53.08%
Elo Modified	Derrick Lewis	1789.57	+85.71	62.09%
Glicko-1	Derrick Lewis	1832.73	+120.95	66.73%
WHR	Derrick Lewis	1707.73	+31.91	54.58%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Derrick Lewis 189, Rodrigo Nascimento 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Derrick Lewis leads 2-1
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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Joaquin Buckley (18-6-0, -153) vs. [#46MW] Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2, +127)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#16WW] Vicente Luque (22-10-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:17 of round 2
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (24-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#79WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Nursulton Ruziboev (3-0-0)
2024-03-30: W vs. [#134MW] Sedriques Dumas (10-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 1
2023-07-01: W vs. [#52MW] Brunno Ferreira (11-1-0) via TKO in 1:17 of round 1
2022-04-10: W vs. [*] Paval Masalski (14-17-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:25 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Joaquin Buckley	-153		57.85%
Elo K170	Joaquin Buckley	1963.90	+188.72	74.77%
Elo Modified	Joaquin Buckley	1947.86	+165.85	72.21%
Glicko-1	Joaquin Buckley	2025.23	+142.38	69.42%
WHR	Joaquin Buckley	1813.21	+5.26	50.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquin Buckley 42, Nursulton Ruziboev 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1, +172) vs. [#33] Carlos Ulberg (10-1-0, -214)

Last 3 Fights: Alonzo Menifield (2-0-1)
2023-12-16: W vs. [#24LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-07-08: W vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:55 of round 2
2023-02-11: D vs. [#44LHW] Jimmy Crute (12-4-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Ulberg (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#53LHW] Da Woon Jung (15-5-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 3
2023-05-13: W vs. [#79MW] Ihor Potieria (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:09 of round 1
2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Nicolae Negumereanu (13-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:44 of round 1

System	Favorite	Rating	Rating Diff	Win %
Betting Odds	Carlos Ulberg	-214		64.96%
Elo K170	Alonzo Menifield	1818.36	+67.13	59.54%
Elo Modified	Alonzo Menifield	1855.90	+78.72	61.14%
Glicko-1	Alonzo Menifield	1894.14	+84.27	61.90%
WHR	Carlos Ulberg	1779.00	+47.93	56.85%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alonzo Menifield 147, Carlos Ulberg 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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[#13 HW]	Derrick Lewis	[#67 WW]	Nursulton Ruziboev
[NR]	Conor McGregor	[#19 LHW]	Carlos Ulberg
[#12 WW]	Joaquin Buckley	[#15 LW]	Diego Ferreira
[#102 LW]	Esteban Ribovics	[#108 LW]	Chase Hooper
[#24 HW]	Rodrigo Nascimento	[#48 HW]	Waldo Cortes-Acosta

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