Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 64
Ah, Fight Pass. The red-headed stepchild of the UFC broadcasting family. At this point it’s pretty clear that since I am only considering live UFC fights and not the additional content that Fight Pass has to offer, the value will not be worth the subscription price. Especially with Fox Sports 1 gobbling up Fight Pass-worthy cards such as Maia-LaFlare, and sometimes even showing the lowest of the prelims, e.g. Fight Night 63.
This leads us into the first Fight Pass-exclusive event of the year: UFC Fight Night 64, live from Krakow, Poland. As these cards usually tend to be, it has very few recognizable names or highly ranked fighters, and is mainly designed to appeal to the local crowd. There are usually one or two interesting fights at the top of the card, but in this case UFC decided to cap it off with one of the most pointless rematches in the history of the organization.
Main Event: [#23 HW] Gabriel Gonzaga vs [#27 HW] Mirko Filipovic
Worth: $1
Why: For some odd reason, the UFC match makers really love rematches. After all, if the first fight between the two fighters was great, why not do it again, right? While sometimes a rematch makes all the sense in the world, unfortunately this is not one of those instances, because in 2015 this fight makes no sense at all.
When these two first met at UFC 70 back in 2007, Mirko ‘Cro Cop’ Filipovic was near the very top of the heavyweight heap. Fresh off winning the Pride 2006 open-weight Gran Prix, capped off by a knockout win over Wanderlei Silva and a TKO stoppage of Josh Barnett, Cro Cop was ranked #2 in the division, and predicted by most fans to run over the UFC heavyweights when he joined the promotion. Despite scoring a first-round TKO against a deer-in-the-headlights Eddie Sanchez, Mirko looked a bit tentative in his UFC debut. This was attributed to the infamous ‘Octagon jitters’ and he was still on a collision course with then champion Randy Couture – until Gabriel Gonzaga spoiled his plans with a bit of ground-and-pound followed up by the kick heard around the world.
Defeating Cro Cop with his own biggest weapon marked one of the most memorable, jaw dropping finishes in history of the sport. The win secured a title shot for Gonzaga, and marked the begging of Mirko’s decline: though he went 8-6 with 1 NC since then, he has never again beaten an elite opponent. Gabriel Gonzaga hasn’t fared much better, amassing an 8-8 record with his biggest win coming over Ben Rothwell in 2013, after a very brief retirement. It’s very unlikely to expect a Mark Hunt-like late career resurrection from the 40-year-old Mirko, and just as unlikely that Gonzaga will ever be more than a gatekeeper for the elite: though at 35 he might have a few more good years left in his career, his lack of conditioning, porous striking defense, questionable chin, and non-existent game planning cancel out his world class grappling and immense striking power. Cro Cop, on the other hand, is still essentially a one-dimensional striker who complains about his dislike for elbow strikes in MMA and thinks that the ground game should be limited in the UFC.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Gonzaga takes it based on age advantage, psychological advantage from the first fight, and besides that simply having more ways to win. But really no matter how this fight goes, anything short of a flying gogoplata will be a disappointment compared to the outcome of their first bout. I understand that Mirko wants to end his career in the UFC and avenge the most brutal loss he has suffered, but would much prefer both fighters to face someone else. Sometimes it’s best to let sleeping dogs lie, and let old fight results stand. There was no need for a do-over in this one, and I have very little interest in seeing it.
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Featured Fighters
| [#18 W125] | Lucia Szabova |   | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev |
| [#18 LW] | Renato Carneiro |   | [#1 FW] | Alexander Volkanovski |
| [#13 LW] | Tom Nolan |   | [#26 WW] | Jacobe Smith |
| [#102 W125] | Tainara Lisboa |   | [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje |
| [#2 LW] | Ilia Topuria |   | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit |
Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night – Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2 (04-11-2015)
Heavyweight (265)
[#23] Gabriel Gonzaga (16-9-0, -167) vs. [#27] Mirko Filipovic (30-11-2, +139)
Mirko Filipovic is the All-Time #8 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (1-2-0)
2014-12-13: L vs. [#13HW+] Matt Mitrione (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 1
2014-01-25: L vs. [#9HW+] Stipe Miocic (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-10-19: W vs. [#33HW+] Shawn Jordan (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:33 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Mirko Filipovic (2-1-0)
2014-12-31: W vs. [#73HW+] Satoshi Ishii (12-4-1) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 5:00 of round 2
2014-08-23: W vs. [#73HW+] Satoshi Ishii (12-4-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:37 of round 2
2013-11-08: L vs. [#15HW+] Alexey Oleinik (55-9-1) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:42 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gabriel Gonzaga 119, Mirko Filipovic 101
Previous Match-up Record: Gabriel Gonzaga leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#17] Jan Blachowicz (18-3-0, +136) vs. [#18] Jimi Manuwa (14-1-0, -165)
Last 3 Fights: Jan Blachowicz (3-0-0)
2014-10-04: W vs. [#30LHW] Ilir Latifi (9-4-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
2013-03-16: W vs. [#39LHW] Goran Reljic (14-4-0) via UD ()
2012-09-15: W vs. [#82LHW] Houston Alexander (16-11-1) via UD ()
Last 3 Fights: Jimi Manuwa (2-1-0)
2014-03-08: L vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 1:18 of round 2
2013-10-26: W vs. [#24LHW] Ryan Jimmo (19-4-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:41 of round 2
2013-02-16: W vs. [*] Cyrille Diabate (19-10-1) via TKO (Retirement) in 5:00 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jan Blachowicz 189, Jimi Manuwa 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#103] Garreth McLellan (12-2-0, +113) vs. [#165WW] Bartosz Fabinski (11-2-0, -147)
Last 3 Fights: Garreth McLellan (3-0-0)
2014-08-30: W vs. [#327MW] Dricus Du Plessis (5-1-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in ? of round 3
2014-03-27: W vs. [#354MW] J.P. Kruger (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in ? of round 1
2013-10-10: W vs. [#664WW] Jeremy Smith (8-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:00 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Bartosz Fabinski (3-0-0)
2014-10-18: W vs. [#457WW] Alik Tseiko (7-4-0) via SD ()
2014-06-08: W vs. [#821MW] Alexey Repalov (6-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 1:54 of round 1
2014-05-09: W vs. [#366MW] Gregor Herb (14-8-0) via UD ()
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Garreth McLellan 224, Bartosz Fabinski 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Ranking Expansions in Next Update
- Men’s Bantamweight expanded from 300 to 350.
- Men’s Flyweight expanded from 150 to 200.
- Women’s Bantamweight expanded from 25 to 30.
- Women’s Strawweight expanded from 30 to 35.
Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 63
Another Saturday, another Fight Night. A few things about this one are unusual. For one, the broadcast begins at 11 AM (ET), with the main card starting at 1 PM – making it more of a ‘Fight Late Morning/Early Afternoon’. Besides the unusual start time for a US event, there are no Fight Pass prelims: the entire event will be shown on Fox Sports 1. Most importantly, this card is nicely stacked for a Fight Night, especially compared to the last few FS1 events. All of the match-ups are also extremely competitive, at least judging by our rankings.
Main Event: [#4 FW] Chad Mendes vs [#5 FW] Ricardo Lamas
Worth: $15
Why: This is an important fight as the winner is going to be up there with Frankie Edgar as the next contender for the featherweight title after Jose Aldo defends against Conor McGregor. Considering the timing of upcoming featherweight fights, and assuming that Edgar beats Uriah Faber in his next outing, it’s likely that there will be another elimination bout between the winners of these two fights. Which means that if Aldo retains his title, he will have to start on the rematch circuit, and this makes a McGregor win a far more interesting scenario for the featherweight division.
Why am I talking about Aldo – McGregor instead of the fight at hand? Because this fight, and the rest of the division, are overshadowed by the McGregor hype. And all the hype aside, I am not as excited about this matchup as I probably should be, considering how much sense it makes from the ranking and title picture standpoint and that both guys have been on fire save for their losses to the champion. For me this fight just has the feel of a bronze medal contest in the Olympics. Good, but not great.
Fight Matrix Program: UFC Fight Night – Mendes vs. Lamas (04-04-2015)
Featherweight (145)
[#4] Chad Mendes (16-2-0) vs. [#5] Ricardo Lamas (15-3-0)
Chad Mendes is the All-Time #6 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Ricardo Lamas is the All-Time #11 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Chad Mendes (2-1-0)
2014-10-25: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD/#2P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-12-14: W vs. [#9FW] Nik Lentz (25-6-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-08-31: W vs. [#15FW] Clay Guida (31-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Ricardo Lamas (2-1-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#14FW] Dennis Bermudez (14-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#19FW] Hacran Dias (22-3-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2014-02-01: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD/#2P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chad Mendes 161, Ricardo Lamas 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Al Iaquinta (12-3-1) vs. [#13] Jorge Masvidal (28-8-0)
Last 3 Fights: Al Iaquinta (3-0-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#26LW] Joe Lauzon (24-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 2
2014-11-07: W vs. [#27LW] Ross Pearson (17-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:39 of round 2
2014-09-05: W vs. [#101LW] Rodrigo Damm (12-9-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:41 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (3-0-0)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#69LW] James Krause (21-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-07-26: W vs. [#55LW] Daron Cruickshank (16-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2014-04-19: W vs. [#52LW] Pat Healy (28-20-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Al Iaquinta 63, Jorge Masvidal 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#41] Michael Chiesa (11-2-0) vs. [#43] Mitch Clarke (11-2-0)
Last 3 Fights: Michael Chiesa (2-1-0)
2014-09-05: L vs. [#26LW] Joe Lauzon (24-10-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:14 of round 2
2014-05-24: W vs. [#48LW] Francisco Trinaldo (16-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2013-11-06: W vs. [#165WW] Colton Smith (4-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:41 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Mitch Clarke (2-1-0)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#8LW] Al Iaquinta (12-3-1) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 0:57 of round 2
2013-06-15: W vs. [#418LW] John Maguire (19-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-07-21: L vs. [#92LW] Anton Kuivanen (21-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chiesa 211, Mitch Clarke 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Michael Chiesa leads 2-1
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Bang for Your Buck: UFC Fight Night 62
The UFC has been having a blockbuster year so far, with the Pay-Per-View buy rates and TV ratings showing a marked increase from 2014. And even the events that didn’t look so hot on paper, like UFC 184, turned out to be entertaining. Lets see if the trend continues this Saturday, as UFC will broadcast another mediocre-looking Fight Night card from Brazil, live on Fox Sports 1.
Main Event: [#10 WW] Demian Maia vs [#20 WW] Ryan LaFlare
Worth: $5
Why: Most of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master Demian Maia’s 19 UFC fights have followed one of two MOs. Opponents who are willing to grapple with Maia or unable to stop his takedowns, face either a brutal submission or an extended domination on the mat. Those who are not willing to engage Maia on the ground, and able to keep the fight standing, usually end up winning a decision due to Demian’s serviceable but not elite striking. Of course there are a couple of exceptions to this rule – e.g. the one-punch KO Maia suffered at the hands of Nate Marquardt, or running into someone like Jake Shields who is able to stifle Maia’s grappling with a strong top game. But for the most part, we either get to see Maia the grappler or Maia the kickboxer; as he has not been able to smoothly transition between the stand-up and ground phases of a fight.
Which version of Maia we see depends largely on his opponent. Enter Ryan LaFlare – an undefeated welterweight prospect who came into the UFC at 7-0, with 100% finish rate. While LaFlare was able to keep his record unblemished in the Octagon, he didn’t have as much luck finishing his opponents, winning all four of his UFC fights by decision. His wins include solid mid-level names like Court McGee and John Howard, but he is taking a big step up in competition here with Maia as his first top-10 opponent.
How exciting this fight will be depends largely on Ryan’s ability to keep the fight standing. If he can, then he is likely to win another dull decision and continue his rise in the ranks. Otherwise, he will fall victim to Maia’s ground game, which usually makes for a fun fight (unless you’re Maia’s opponent). Based on Demian’s recent performances and LaFlare’s potential, I am leaning towards the first outcome.
