Bang for Your Buck: UFC on FOX 17
They say all good things must come to an end. And so as the UFC is wrapping up a what was a very successful year for the promotion with another stacked event on Fox/Fox Sports 1, I will be wrapping up 2015 with the last installment in the ‘Bang for Your Buck’ series. It’s hard to believe that Zuffa is able to put on such a strong card just a week after a ridiculous weekend of three UFC events in three days. Besides a lightweight title fight and a long awaited matchup between two hard hitting Top 10 heavyweights, the main card on Fox also features another solid lightweight bout, while an extended 3-hour block of prelims on FS1 has five fights that I am looking forward to. There are also two women’s bouts on the card – one on Fox, one on the prelims – as well as three bouts on Fight Pass to start off the event, but none of those really pique my interest.
Main Card (Fox)
Main Event: (C) [#1 LW] Rafael dos Anjos vs [#2 LW] Donald Cerrone for the UFC Lightweight Championship
Worth: $25
Why: This is an amazing matchup between two of the worlds most elite lightweights, both at the peak of their game. After losing a decision to the Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2014, dos Anjos fought four times in the following year, and won all four: T/KO finishes of Ben Henderson and Jason High and thoroughly dominant decisions over Nate Diaz and then champion Antony Pettis. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone in the meanwhile has won seven straight with four finishes in the course of two years. Cerrone’s last loss came via a close decision to Dos Anjos, but with the way both fighters have performed since then, a rematch is definitely warranted.
Dos Anjos and Cowboy have had a lot of common opponents, which is understandable when both had 18 fights in the UFC. What is more interesting that besides handing Cerrone his last loss, dos Anjos also beat the two men who defeated Cerrone prior: Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis. While Cerrone is not the same fighter he was in the Diaz fight – or even in the first dos Anjos fight – I still believe Rafael will take the rematch and successfully defend his title for the first time. Another interesting factoid about this fight is that Cowboy is the only lineal champion who is not also the UFC champion, so this fight will unify the last disputed lineage in all of men’s divisions, merging all lineal championships with UFC belts (with the questionable exemption of Jon Jones).
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF Super Rizin 6: Shiwasu no Owarinagoya Gekokujo Matsuri | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina |  [#4 W105] Saori Oshima | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#18 W105] Rena Kubota Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 7/18/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee Last 5: L W L W W | ||
| Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep - 135 Impact | |||
| [#3 SW] Sukai China | [#4 SW] Jo Arai | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 5/04/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 9/13/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#23 SW] Daichi Kitakata Last 5: L L W L W | ||
| Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep Tokyo Impact 2026 6th Round | |||
| [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama | [#10 SW] Goal Makino | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/20/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi Last 5: W W W L W | Last Fight Date: 9/06/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#42 SW] Toshiya Takashima Last 5: W W W W W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#18 W125] |  Lucia Szabova | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | |
| [#18 LW] |  Renato Carneiro | [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | |
| [#13 LW] | Tom Nolan | [#26 WW] |  Jacobe Smith | |
| [#102 W125] | Tainara Lisboa | [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit |
Investigating the decline of Nate Marquardt
Nate Marquardt faces C.B. Dollaway this Saturday at UFC on FOX 17. The former number-one contender has fallen on hard times. He is currently 1-5 in his last six fights. Even more distressing is the fact that he is getting knocked out at mucher higher rate and absorbing more strikes than ever before in his career. Is this is a decline in physical ability or is Marquardt simply facing better opposition?
In his last seven fights, six out of his seven opponents have landed over two significant strikes per minute against him (per Fightmetric). Prior to his fight against Tyron Woodley in 2012, only two of Marquardt’s opponents in his Strikeforce/UFC career, had been that successful against him, Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen.
Marquardt has been knocked out in three of his last five bouts. Before he faced Jake Ellenberger in 2013, he had only been knocked out on one occasion, his title fight against Silva. During the same stretch, he scored only one knockout, a come-from-behind win over Woodley. In his preceding seven fights, Marquardt scored knockouts in four of seven bouts. He was getting hit less, landing more knockouts and getting knocked out less. Plus, he was actually facing, on average, higher ranked opposition. The following chart shows the stark difference over the course of his last 14 bouts. Ranking here refers to the Fight Matrix Generated Historical Ranking from the quarter in which the bout took place.
UFC on Fox 17: Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2 – Who’s Getting Paid?
UFC on Fox 17 is quietly underscoring the massive embarrassment of riches that MMA fans are having this December. If our latest Fight Matrix Program wasn’t enough of a clue, this weekend hosts one of the most competitive and quality-driven fight cards of the year.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone aside, Michael Johnson, Nate Diaz, Junior dos Santos, and Alistair Overeem could all headline their own UFC cards — but as it sometimes happens, we’re getting them all in one event. Let’s enjoy this good fortune and do our thing, as we run down the previous UFC fighter salaries with most-recent Reebok sponsorship payouts for each combatant on Friday’s Fox main card.
Note: Divisional rankings via Fight Matrix. UFC salaries and Reebok figures via MMA Payout and MMA Junkie.
Rafael dos Anjos [#1 LW]
$86,000 = $41,000/$41,000 + $4,000 [UFC on Fox 13]
Donald Cerrone [#2 LW]
$152,000 = $76,000/$76,000 [UFC 187]
Analysis: Donald Cerrone has only gotten craftier with age — both inside and outside the Octagon. On little more than hustle, his unique personality, and some good social media tactics, “Cowboy” has secured himself a (relatively) high UFC salary and 8-0 winning streak that puts him solidly in the “21+ bout” range of the Reebok tenure deal.
At 18 UFC fights and (likely) paid comparatively less than the top stars, RDA has a lot more to lose here, while his physique post-USADA testing has been in serious question around most MMA circles. Either way, it’s pretty grim that a loss will cost either man a steep five figures in sponsorship pay.
Fight Matrix Program: UFC on Fox 17 – Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone (12-19-2015)
Lightweight Championship (155)
[#1/#7DD/#7P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0, -215) vs. [#2/#10P4P] Donald Cerrone (28-6-0, +177)
Rafael dos Anjos is the All-Time #8 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #15 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rafael dos Anjos (3-0-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#3LW] Anthony Pettis (18-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#21LW] Nate Diaz (17-10-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2014-08-23: W vs. [#10WW] Ben Henderson (23-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:31 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#72LW] John Makdessi (13-5-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:44 of round 2
2015-01-18: W vs. [#10WW] Ben Henderson (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-01-03: W vs. [#14LW] Myles Jury (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rafael dos Anjos 280, Donald Cerrone 210
Previous Match-up Record: Rafael dos Anjos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rafael dos Anjos leads 5-4
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0, -356) vs. [#9] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0, +279)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #21 ranked Absolute fighter.
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #18 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (2-1-0)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#5HW+] Stipe Miocic (13-2-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-10-19: L vs. [#2HW+] Cain Velasquez (13-2-0) via TKO (Slam and Punch) in 3:09 of round 5
2013-05-25: W vs. [#6HW+] Mark Hunt (11-10-1) via KO (Spinning Hook Kick) in 4:18 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2015-03-14: W vs. [#23HW+] Roy Nelson (20-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#32HW+] Stefan Struve (26-8-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 1
2014-09-05: L vs. [#7HW+] Ben Rothwell (35-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 371, Alistair Overeem 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#9] Michael Johnson (16-9-0, -459) vs. [#21] Nate Diaz (17-10-0, +356)
Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2015-08-08: L vs. [#8LW] Beneil Dariush (12-1-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2015-02-22: W vs. [#17LW] Edson Barboza (16-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-03-08: W vs. [#41LW] Melvin Guillard (32-15-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Nate Diaz (1-2-0)
2014-12-13: L vs. [#1LW/#7DD/#7P4P] Rafael dos Anjos (24-7-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2013-11-30: W vs. [#175LW] Gray Maynard (11-5-1) via TKO (Punches) in 2:38 of round 1
2013-04-20: L vs. [#16LW] Josh Thomson (22-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:44 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Johnson 133, Nate Diaz 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Eight Straight, No Title Shot?
In the opening bout of the Pay-Per-View portion of UFC 194, Max Holloway defeated Jeremy Stephens by unanimous decision. It was in my opinion the least spectacular fight on the main card, and with two new champions being crowned later that evening, it’s understandable that this fight didn’t receive much press. However there is something about this fight worth mentioning: Holloway earned his eight consecutive win in the Octagon, entering a five-way tie for the fifth most consecutive wins in UFC history.
The other four fighters that share this accomplishment are Jon Fitch, Gray Maynard, Lyoto Machida, and Donald Cerrone. They all have something in common: winning eight consecutive fights earned them a shot at the title (Machida got his after the seventh win). Fitch and Maynard failed to win the belt, and we will see how Cerrone fares in his rematch with the champion Rafael dos Anjos next Saturday, but that is beside the point. The point being that if Holloway’s next fight is not for the featherweight gold, he will become the first fighter in history to reach the 8-win streak benchmark in UFC and not be rewarded with a title shot.
Bang for Your Buck: UFC 194
For the 13th and final Pay-Per-View event of 2015, UFC is bringing out the big guns. Headlined by the long-awaited title unification bout between the featherweight champion Jose Aldo and interim champ Conor McGregor, the card also features a middleweight title bout between champion Chris Weidman and the #2 ranked fighter in the division Luke Rockhold. In addition to the dual title fights, the three remaining fights on the main card all have significant divisional implication, with at least one of them very likely to produce a #1 contender. This will be one of the rare UFC PPV events where the main card alone meets and exceeds the purchase price.
Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Main Event: (C) [#1 FW] Jose Aldo vs (IC) [#3 FW] Conor McGregor for the undisputed UFC Featherweight Championship
Worth: $25
Why: This fight was originally scheduled to take place back in July at UFC 189. After Jose Aldo suffered a rib injury in training, Chad Mendes stepped up on less than two weeks notice to fight McGregor for an interim title. McGregor stopped Mendes with a second round TKO, and will now look to trade up his interim belt for the real thing. This actually makes for a more interesting bout than it would have been at 189: back then one could have made a strong argument that McGregor did not really earn his title shot, and jumped to the front of the line ahead of the higher ranked contenders Mendes and Frankie Edgar, without beating any of the top guys in the division. The win over Mendes silences that argument and lends much more credibility to Conor’s standing as a contender. The winner of this fight will be the truly undisputed UFC champion, lineal world champion, and #1 in the division. The winner also won’t be lacking challengers, with Max Holloway taking on Jeremy Stephens on the undercard and Edgar colliding with Mendes at TUF 22 finale just a day before this event. Of course, should McGregor walk away with the undisputed title, an immediate rematch with Aldo will most likely follow (this is the UFC after all, and Zuffa matchmakers sure love the rematches) – unless the talk of Jose Aldo’s impeding retirement comes true – but I would take that with a very large grain of salt.
Fight Matrix Program: UFC 194 (12-12-2015)
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#7DD/#4P4P] Jose Aldo (25-1-0, -106) vs. [#3] Conor McGregor (18-2-0, -116)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #4 ranked Absolute fighter.
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #12 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2014-10-25: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (17-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2014-02-01: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (16-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2013-08-03: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (3-0-0)
2015-07-11: W vs. [#6FW] Chad Mendes (17-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 2
2015-01-18: W vs. [#37FW] Dennis Siver (22-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-09-27: W vs. [#18LW] Dustin Poirier (18-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 413, Conor McGregor 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jose Aldo leads 2-1
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Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#1DD/#2P4P] Chris Weidman (13-0-0, -136) vs. [#2] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0, +113)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.
Luke Rockhold is the All-Time #10 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2015-05-23: W vs. [#3MW] Vitor Belfort (25-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:53 of round 1
2014-07-05: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)
2013-12-28: W vs. [#14MW] Anderson Silva (33-6-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 1:16 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Luke Rockhold (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:31 of round 2
2014-11-07: W vs. [#9MW] Michael Bisping (27-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:57 of round 2
2014-04-26: W vs. [#21MW] Tim Boetsch (18-9-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Kimura) in 2:08 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 203, Luke Rockhold 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#4] Yoel Romero (10-1-0, +122) vs. [#5] Ronaldo Souza (22-3-0, -145)
Ronaldo Souza is the All-Time #7 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Yoel Romero (3-0-0)
2015-06-27: W vs. [#6MW] Lyoto Machida (22-7-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:38 of round 3
2014-09-27: W vs. [#16MW] Tim Kennedy (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 3
2014-04-19: W vs. [#23MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Ronaldo Souza (3-0-0)
2015-04-18: W vs. [#29MW] Chris Camozzi (22-10-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:33 of round 1
2014-09-05: W vs. [#7MW] Gegard Mousasi (37-6-2) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:30 of round 3
2014-02-15: W vs. [#20LHW] Francis Carmont (24-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yoel Romero 168, Ronaldo Souza 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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