Fight Matrix

Fight Matrix Ranking Points for the Rizin Lightweight Tournament

Posted on October 10, 2019 by Richard Mann

Rizin and Bellator are not only sharing card space at the end of this year, but they are also sharing promotional tactics. This weekend Rizin will kick off an interesting lightweight tournament, which features a mix of new prospects and veterans of the game. The field runs the gambit from #211 Tatsuya Kawajiri to BJJ convert #94 Roberto “Satoshi” de Souza to Bellator regular #12 Patricky Freire.

The following chart looks like the Fight Matrix ranking history of all participants since they were first ranked by the system. An interactive version is available via Tableau Public.

Richard Mann is a regular contributor to @ESPNMMA, @FightMetric, @RotoWireMMA and @InterMat. You can follow him on Twitter at @richardamann.

Fight Matrix Program- UFC on ESPN+ 19: Joanna vs. Waterson (10-12-2019)

Posted on October 7, 2019 by Jason

Women Strawweight (115)
[#4/#9DD] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (15-3-0, -395) vs. [#6] Michelle Waterson (17-6-0, +304)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is the All-Time #4 ranked Women’s fighter.
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #37 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1-2-0)
2018-12-08: L vs. [#1FLY/#3DD/#2P4P] Valentina Shevchenko (18-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#19SW] Tecia Torres (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#3SW/#8DD/#8P4P] Rose Namajunas (8-4-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#20SW] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#22SW] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#18SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joanna Jedrzejczyk – Win%: 76.32
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michelle Waterson (1653.26) [+23.75] – Win%: 52.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1648.80) [+32.14] – Win%: 53.51
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Joanna Jedrzejczyk (1651.97) [+37.26] – Win%: 56.87
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk 308, Michelle Waterson 196
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Joanna Jedrzejczyk leads 3-2
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Featherweight (145)
[#35] Cub Swanson (25-11-0, +159) vs. [#37] Kron Gracie (5-0-0, -196)
Cub Swanson is the All-Time #15 ranked Featherweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cub Swanson (0-3-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#33FW] Shane Burgos (12-1-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-08-04: L vs. [#19FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 1
2018-04-21: L vs. [#6FW] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kron Gracie (3-0-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#94FW] Alex Caceres (15-12-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 1
2016-12-31: W vs. [#211LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-13-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:05 of round 2
2016-09-25: W vs. [*] Hideo Tokoro (34-30-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 9:49 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kron Gracie – Win%: 63.16
Elo Favorite (Standard): Cub Swanson (1680.82) [+134.61] – Win%: 64.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cub Swanson (1734.23) [+73.56] – Win%: 57.98
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Cub Swanson (1699.78) [+96.17] – Win%: 67.58
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cub Swanson 161, Kron Gracie 237
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#191] Thomas Gifford (15-8-0, +202) vs. [#219] Brok Weaver (14-4-0, -252)

Last 3 Fights: Thomas Gifford (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#115LW] Roosevelt Roberts (8-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-20: W vs. [#348LW] Christopher Brown (4-1-0) via SD ()
2018-07-28: W vs. [#300LW] Trey Ogden (12-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:04 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Brok Weaver (3-0-0)
2019-08-13: W vs. [#515WW] Devin Smyth (9-2-0) via UD ()
2019-02-07: W vs. [#1114WW] James Freeman (6-3-0) via DQ in 3:27 of round 1
2018-12-21: W vs. [#281MW] Tyler Hill (10-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Brok Weaver – Win%: 68.37
Elo Favorite (Standard): Brok Weaver (1533.11) [+31.36] – Win%: 53.58
Elo Favorite (Modified): Thomas Gifford (1485.55) [+33.47] – Win%: 53.66
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Thomas Gifford (1534.26) [+82.31] – Win%: 65.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thomas Gifford 168, Brok Weaver 60
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Thomas Gifford leads 1-0
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Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Thursday, December 31st 2026: Rizin FF Super Rizin 6: Shiwasu no Owarinagoya Gekokujo Matsuri

[#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina

[#4 W105] Saori Oshima

Last Fight Date: 9/10/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#18 W105] Rena Kubota
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 7/18/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#13 W105] Ye Ji Lee
Last 5: L W L W W

Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep - 135 Impact

[#3 SW] Sukai China

[#4 SW] Jo Arai

Last Fight Date: 5/04/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 9/13/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#23 SW] Daichi Kitakata
Last 5: L L W L W

Sunday, December 13th 2026: Deep Tokyo Impact 2026 6th Round

[#6 SW] Sora Sugiyama

[#10 SW] Goal Makino

Last Fight Date: 9/20/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [NR] Musashi Musashi
Last 5: W W W L W

Last Fight Date: 9/06/2026 [DEEP]
Last Opponent: [#42 SW] Toshiya Takashima
Last 5: W W W W W

Featured Fighters

[#18 W125]	Lucia Szabova	[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev
[#18 LW]	Renato Carneiro	[#1 FW]	Alexander Volkanovski
[#13 LW]	Tom Nolan	[#26 WW]	Jacobe Smith
[#102 W125]	Tainara Lisboa	[#1 LW]	Justin Gaethje
[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria	[#8 HW]	Josh Hokit

Current MMA Rankings Updated (10-06-2019)

Posted on October 6, 2019 by Jason

Exactly 50 UFC’s ago in Australia, Robert Whittaker took on Uriah “Primetime” Hall | UFC 193 Rewatch

Posted on October 4, 2019 by Julianna Penya Simp

UFC 243 is upon us. Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya look to unify the Middleweight title in front of 50,000 fans in Australia. The biggest fight in Oceania history.

Exactly 50 UFC PPVs ago at UFC 193, Robert Whittaker was in the middle of the main card in an exciting striking oriented match up with Uriah Hall.

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UFC 243 Program: Whittaker vs. Adesanya (10-01-2019)

Posted on October 1, 2019 by Jason

Middleweight Championship (185)
[*] Robert Whittaker (20-4-0, -114) vs. [#2] Israel Adesanya (17-0-0, -109)
Robert Whittaker is the All-Time #13 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Israel Adesanya is the All-Time #28 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Robert Whittaker (3-0-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#3MW] Yoel Romero (13-4-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-07-08: W vs. [#3MW] Yoel Romero (13-4-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
2017-04-15: W vs. [#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 3:28 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Israel Adesanya (3-0-0)
2019-04-13: W vs. [#6MW] Kelvin Gastelum (15-4-0) via UD (48-46, 48-46, 48-46)
2019-02-09: W vs. [#17MW] Anderson Silva (34-10-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#12MW] Derek Brunson (20-7-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:51 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Robert Whittaker – Win%: 50.53
Elo Favorite (Standard): Robert Whittaker (2327.08) [+145.06] – Win%: 65.98
Elo Favorite (Modified): Robert Whittaker (2255.01) [+102.73] – Win%: 61.06
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Robert Whittaker (2269.34) [+87.96] – Win%: 65.20
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Robert Whittaker 483, Israel Adesanya 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 2 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Al Iaquinta (15-5-1, +108) vs. [#16] Dan Hooker (18-8-0, -134)
Al Iaquinta is the All-Time #43 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Al Iaquinta (1-2-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#5LW] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#33WW] Kevin Lee (17-5-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 48-47)
2018-04-07: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#4P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via UD (50-44, 50-43, 50-43)

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (2-1-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#34LW] James Vick (13-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1
2018-12-15: L vs. [#12LW] Edson Barboza (20-8-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 2:19 of round 3
2018-07-07: W vs. [#19WW] Gilbert Burns (17-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:28 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Dan Hooker – Win%: 54.35
Elo Favorite (Standard): Al Iaquinta (1989.25) [+118.96] – Win%: 63.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Al Iaquinta (1937.79) [+60.28] – Win%: 56.56
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Al Iaquinta (1942.90) [+56.02] – Win%: 60.23
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Al Iaquinta 154, Dan Hooker 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#29] Tai Tuivasa (8-2-0, -358) vs. [#91] Sergey Spivak (9-1-0, +277)

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (1-2-0)
2019-06-08: L vs. [#13HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#4HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-06-09: W vs. [#32HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-18-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Sergey Spivak (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: L vs. [#12HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:50 of round 1
2018-09-29: W vs. [#143HW+] Tony Lopez (62-31-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 4:12 of round 1
2018-03-24: W vs. [NA] Ivo Cuk (12-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:21 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tai Tuivasa – Win%: 74.66
Elo Favorite (Standard): Tai Tuivasa (1610.54) [+155.57] – Win%: 67.06
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tai Tuivasa (1656.16) [+135.25] – Win%: 64.38
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Tai Tuivasa (1601.31) [+88.92] – Win%: 66.70
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 119, Sergey Spivak 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (09-29-2019)

Posted on September 29, 2019 by Jason

All-Time Peak Glicko Ratings

Posted on September 25, 2019 by Jason

Men

3016 – Daniel Cormier
2996 – Jon Jones
2949 – Khabib Nurmagomedov
2945 – Max Holloway
2930 – Stipe Miocic
2920 – Anderson Silva
2909 – Georges St. Pierre
2893 – Chris Weidman
2890 – Gegard Mousasi
2873 – Tony Ferguson
2855 – Tyron Woodley
2853 – Dustin Poirier
2845 – Fedor Emelianenko
2839 – Luke Rockhold
2831 – Rafael dos Anjos
2830 – Anthony Johnson
2819 – Ryan Bader
2817 – Fabricio Werdum
2815 – Kamaru Usman
2812 – Robert Whittaker
2810 – Ronaldo Souza
2792 – Jorge Masvidal
2785 – Donald Cerrone
2779 – Jose Aldo
2778 – T.J. Dillashaw

Women

2533 – Amanda Nunes
2482 – Cristiane Justino
2468 – Ronda Rousey
2415 – Weili Zhang
2398 – Jessica Andrade
2376 – Valentina Shevchenko
2369 – Joanna Jedrzejczyk
2335 – Megumi Fujii
2334 – Rose Namajunas
2303 – Tara LaRosa
2298 – Miesha Tate
2285 – Tatiana Suarez
2254 – Alexis Davis
2254 – Jessica Aguilar
2247 – Holly Holm
2242 – Claudia Gadelha
2227 – Sarah Kaufman
2226 – Yuka Tsuji
2223 – Ayaka Hamasaki
2214 – Germaine de Randamie
2213 – Julianna Pena
2213 – Livinha Souza
2203 – Cat Zingano
2186 – Sara McMann
2184 – Aspen Ladd

Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN+ 18: Hermansson vs. Cannonier (09-28-2019)

Posted on September 23, 2019 by Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#6] Jack Hermansson (20-4-0, -243) vs. [#10] Jared Cannonier (12-4-0, +194)

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (3-0-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#8MW] Ronaldo Souza (26-7-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#18MW] David Branch (22-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 0:49 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#45MW] Gerald Meerschaert (29-11-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jared Cannonier (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#17MW] Anderson Silva (34-10-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 4:47 of round 1
2018-11-03: W vs. [#18MW] David Branch (22-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2
2018-05-19: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:55 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jack Hermansson – Win%: 67.56
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jack Hermansson (2095.81) [+327.88] – Win%: 81.73
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jack Hermansson (2110.72) [+344.92] – Win%: 81.91
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Jack Hermansson (2049.01) [+235.32] – Win%: 85.46
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jack Hermansson 154, Jared Cannonier 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#18] Gunnar Nelson (17-4-1, +110) vs. [#30] Gilbert Burns (16-3-0, -136)

Last 3 Fights: Gunnar Nelson (1-2-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#5WW] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-27, 28-29)
2018-12-08: W vs. [#28WW] Alex Oliveira (20-7-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:17 of round 2
2017-07-16: L vs. [#8WW] Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Burns (3-0-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#42WW] Alexey Kunchenko (20-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#643LW] Mike Davis (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:15 of round 2
2018-12-08: W vs. [#46LW] Olivier Aubin-Mercier (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Gilbert Burns – Win%: 54.75
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gilbert Burns (1933.83) [+39.94] – Win%: 54.55
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gunnar Nelson (1959.08) [+41.29] – Win%: 54.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Gunnar Nelson (1939.74) [+34.77] – Win%: 56.50
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gunnar Nelson 196, Gilbert Burns 49
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#28] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0, +186) vs. [#31] Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-2-0, -233)
Ovince St. Preux is the All-Time #43 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#16LHW] Nikita Krylov (25-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:30 of round 2
2018-10-06: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [#49LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via Submission (Straight Armbar) in 2:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Michal Oleksiejczuk (3-0-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#75LHW] Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:44 of round 1
2019-02-23: W vs. [#41LHW] Gian Villante (17-11-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:34 of round 1
2017-12-30: W vs. [#33LHW] Khalil Rountree (8-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michal Oleksiejczuk – Win%: 66.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1766.10) [+154.14] – Win%: 66.91
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1784.37) [+132.79] – Win%: 64.14
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Michal Oleksiejczuk (1745.40) [+91.39] – Win%: 66.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ovince St. Preux 168, Michal Oleksiejczuk 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated (09-22-2019)

Posted on September 22, 2019 by Jason

Notable Info

Glicko-1 ratings updated w/ new outcome values and ignoring DQs — see this post for more info.

Tuning Glicko: What I learned & confirmed…

Posted on September 18, 2019 by Jason

If you’ve been keeping up, you already knew we added Glicko ratings to the ranking pages. Glicko is essentially a modern, more complex version of Elo, the tried and true rating system used mainly for chess, which we also feature two flavors of. To learn more about our adaptations, see the bottom of the FAQ. The “nuts and bolts” on the Glicko system can be found here.

As for Glicko, without getting into the weeds and trying to explain the differences that require a Mathematics PhD to really understand, to make a long story short, it has an additional variable called “rating deviation” that essentially equates to confidence — the lower the RD, the more proven a rating is. Furthermore, it outlines a protocol to increase rating deviation with inactivity. There’s also a more recent version of the system known as Glicko-2, which adds another variable called volatility.

Through thousands of test iterations, I’ve learned the unfortunate truth that rating deviation is fairly inconsequential for MMA, while volatility is absolutely worthless for MMA. This is part of the reason why I decided against bothering with Glicko-2. The other reason, is the added complexity. On a grander scale, it shows that I probably should’ve not bothered adding any variant of Glicko — especially since the author was not willing to provide guidance on tweaking some of factors to better accommodate MMA when I reached out to him about a year ago. That aside.. I’ve yet to find a system that can predict fight outcomes beyond a success rate in the high 60’s, Glicko included.

The main issue with combat sports and ratings systems are four-fold:

Multitude of possible outcomes (decisions, submissions, knockouts, flukes, bad judges)
Inconsistent fight schedules (varying inactivity length, inactivity reasons, crap matchmaking)
Intangibles (location, weight divisions, varying rules, etc.)
Result information (though, this is getting better)

Why did I bother? There comes occasions where I want to “prove” something… like hometown advantage or the real “worth” of a particular type of outcome vs. another. Of course, there’s the standard rating system in use here that I developed, but it is more of a gigantic flowchart converted into a software program than it is a mathematically pure, single formula and as a result, quite a bit tougher to incorporate changes into.

So, what’s on tap, first? Values of outcomes and their relevance…

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