Fight Matrix

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 9 Review

Posted on March 19, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 9, Team Jones evens the score in the wildcard bout. After winning the first round and losing the second, Kevin Casey failed to answer the bell for the tie-breaking third round. Bubba McDaniel is back in the competition, and the quarter-final matchups are announced:

Team Jones		Team Sonnen
Robert McDaniel	vs	Uriah Hall
Dylan Andrews	vs	Luke Barnatt
Josh Samman	vs	Jimmy Quinlan
Collin Hart	vs	Kelvin Gastelum

Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 4.

A summary of the season’s fights so far after the break:

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The Uncut Sports Show: UFC 158 Review

Posted on March 19, 2013 by Oleg

The Uncut Sports Show recap of UFC 158.

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finalist Mike Ricci, made his return back to lightweight and did not disappoint. He won a unanimous decision over Colin Fletcher by dissecting him, applying pressure, and neutralizing Fletchers leg kicks.

Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)

Saturday, August 22nd 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira

[#1 W145] Cristiane Justino

[#4 W135] Ketlen Vieira

Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL]
Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 5/16/2026 [UFC]
Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti
Last 5: W L W L W

Thursday, September 10th 2026: Rizin FF - Super Rizin 5

[#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina

[#16 W105] Rena Kubota

Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#8 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki
Last 5: W W W W W

Last Fight Date: 12/31/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation]
Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa
Last 5: W L W W L

Saturday, July 25th 2026: Pancrase 364 / Pancrase Blood 11

[#11 SW] Kanji Funada

[#13 SW] Shunma Sasaki

Last Fight Date: 3/14/2026 [Pancrase]
Last Opponent: [#4 SW] Yuta Miyazawa
Last 5: W W W W L

Last Fight Date: 3/14/2026 [Pancrase]
Last Opponent: [#52 SW] Takafumi Ato
Last 5: L W W W W

Featured Fighters

[NR]	Matt Hughes	[#1 WW]	Islam Makhachev
[#279 LW]	Johnny Case	[#1 LW]	Justin Gaethje
[#164 WW]	Conor McGregor	[#2 LW]	Ilia Topuria
[#6 WW]	Kamaru Usman	[NR]	Juan Antonio Cabrera
[#3 MW]	Dricus Du Plessis	[#22 MW]	Sharabutdin Magomedov

Current MMA Rankings Updated: 3/17/2013

Posted on March 17, 2013 by Jason

The Uncut Sports Show: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Ep. 8 Recap, Don Frye Thinks Brock Lesnar is a Cheater!

Posted on March 15, 2013 by Oleg

Check out the latest episode of Uncut Sports Show: TUF Episode 8 Recap; Don Frye accuses UFC of fixing some of Brock Lesnar’s fights.

New Feature: Unusual Decisions

Posted on March 13, 2013 by Oleg

We compiled a list of some of the most unusual and controversial decisions in the history of mixed martial arts. This includes most controversial split decisions (with the biggest difference in scores among the judges) and the most lopsided unanimous decisions (with the biggest difference in scores between the two fighters).

http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/unusual-decisions/

Take a look and let us know what you think!

UFC 158 / Odds vs. Ratings (03-16-2013)

Posted on March 13, 2013 by Jason

This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.

Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Duran vs. Roop	Duran (-144 / Small)	Roop (2.73x / Very Large)	Roop	#2
Dillashaw vs. Tamura	Dillashaw (-524 / Very Large)	Dillashaw (2.03x / Large)	Dillashaw
Story vs. Mulhern	Story (-375 / Large)	Story (1.35x / Small)	Mulhern
Cruickshank vs. Makdessi	Cruickshank (-185 / Moderate)	Makdessi (1.19x / Very Small)	Makdessi	#4
Mein vs. Miller	Mein (-257 / Moderate)	Mein (2.04x / Large)	Mein	#1, #4
Elkins vs. Carvalho	Elkins (-237 / Moderate)	Elkins (1.65x / Moderate)	PASS	#4
Cote vs. Voelker	Cote (-180 / Moderate)	Cote (1.82x / Moderate)	PASS
Ricci vs. Fletcher	Ricci (-276 / Moderate)	Fletcher (1.11x / Very Small)	Fletcher	#4
Camozzi vs. Ring	Ring (-117 / Pick ‘Em)	Ring (1.05x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Ellenberger vs. Marquardt	Ellenberger (-166 / Small)	Ellenberger (1.30x / Small)	PASS
Condit vs. Hendricks	Hendricks (-137 / Very Small)	Hendricks (1.33x / Small)	Hendricks
St. Pierre vs. Diaz	St. Pierre (-485 / Large)	St. Pierre (2.81x / Very Large)	St. Pierre	#4

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.

Favorites to consider: Dillashaw, Hendricks and St. Pierre.

Underdogs to consider:

Mulhern over Story – Story is way too large of a favorite, so Mulhern is worth a shot in the dark.
Makdessi over Cruickshank – A tight matchup, in which the rating system favors Makdessi, who also has the home advantage.
Fletcher over Ricci – A 50/50 matchup, but one that seems way too slanted in favor of Ricci in terms of odds.
Roop over Duran – Roop is a BIG ratings favorite, which usually means the gamblers are on to something. Tread carefully.

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 8 Review

Posted on March 13, 2013 by Oleg

In Episode 8, Team Jones closes the gap as Dylan Andrews takes home a majority decision win over Zak Cummings.

Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 3.

Next week, Bubba McDaniel and Kevin Casey will get a second chance at continuing in the TUF tournament as they face off in the “wildcard” bout.

Here’s who remains:

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Fightmatrix Program: UFC 158 (03-16-2013)

Posted on March 11, 2013 by Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#5DD] Georges St. Pierre (23-2-0, -488) vs. [#7] Nick Diaz (26-8-0, +367)
Georges St. Pierre is the All-Time #1 ranked Welterweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Nick Diaz is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Georges St. Pierre (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#3WW] Carlos Condit (28-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#11MW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#16WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-02-04: L vs. [#3WW] Carlos Condit (28-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#20WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#28WW] Paul Daley (31-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Georges St. Pierre 119, Nick Diaz 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Georges St. Pierre leads 6-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#2] Johny Hendricks (14-1-0, -135) vs. [#3] Carlos Condit (28-6-0, +111)
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:46 of round 1
2012-05-05: W vs. [#16WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#18WW] Jon Fitch (24-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: L vs. [#1WW/#5DD] Georges St. Pierre (23-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#7WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#14WW] Dong Hyun Kim (17-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johny Hendricks 119, Carlos Condit 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Johny Hendricks leads 1-0
.

Welterweight (170)
[#6] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0, -165) vs. [#12] Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Nate Marquardt is the All-Time #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#27WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#9LW] Diego Sanchez (24-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Marquardt (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: L vs. [#11WW] Tarec Saffiedine (14-3-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#15WW] Tyron Woodley (11-1-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:39 of round 4
2011-03-19: W vs. [#49WW] Dan Miller (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 162, Nate Marquardt 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Current MMA Rankings Updated: (03-10-2013)

Posted on March 10, 2013 by Jason

The Uncut Sports Show

Posted on March 8, 2013 by Oleg

On the latest episode of the Uncut Sports Show: Transgender MMA fighter Fallon Fox, Team Lloyd Irvin Drama, and TUF Episode 7 Recap.

The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 7 Review

Posted on March 6, 2013 by Oleg

Another episode, another upset. Jimmy Quinlan, relentless with his takedown attempts, took out Clint Hester with a rear naked choke in the second round.

Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 2.

Next week is the remaining opening-round matchup: Zak Cummings vs Dylan Andrews.

Here’s who remains:

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The Uncut Sport Show: UFC on Fuel TV 8 Recap

Posted on March 4, 2013 by Oleg

Hector Lombard showed about 50 seconds of greatness in round 3, but it was too late. The former Bellator fighter let Yushin Okami dictate the pace the majority of the fight, and in the end the judges had Yushin Okami defeating Hector Lombard via split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28).

Mark Hunt ‘s losses in his MMA career had almost all come from being submitted. Stefan Struve took advantage of that quickly and took Hunt out of his element and to the ground. However, to much surprise, Hunt showed a much improved ground game. Hunt managed to weasel his way out of submission attempts by Struve, and his improved conditioning allowed him to throw some devastating punches that eventually earned him a victory over Struve. Mark Hunt def. Stefan Struve via TKO (punches) – Round 3, 1:44.

Diego Sanchez always puts on a show, and has multiple FOTN honors. However, this Diego didn’t seem like the Sanchez of old. He missed weight which caused him to forfeit part of his winnings, and he didn’t seem in shape or as aggressive as usual. In a uneventful fight, the judges had Diego Sanchez defeating Takanori Gomi via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). Many, including Dana White did not agree with that outcome.

In one of the most epic battles we’ve seen in the Octagon as of late. Silva and Stann put on a show, and gave a blueprint to other fighters how to keep a job in the UFC. These two stood toe to toe and let it all hang out in a back and forth battle that saw both fighters connect and hit the canvass a few times. Eventually Silva landed a nasty 1-2 combo that dropped Captain America.
Silva KO’s Stann in round 2

Current & All-Time MMA Rankings Updated (03-03-2013)

Posted on March 3, 2013 by Jason

Notable Info

Strawweight expanded to Top 15 (from 10).

UFC on Fuel TV 8 / Odds vs. Ratings (03-02-2013)

Posted on March 1, 2013 by Jason

With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:

System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
Notable home advantage.
System inability to project style differences.
System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.

The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.

Having said all that, let’s get started:

Ratings vs. Odds

Fight	Odds Favorite	Rating Favorite	I’d bet on	“Gotchas”
Guimaraes vs. Gyu Lim	Gyu Lim (-325 / Large)	Guimaraes (1.22x / Very Small)	Guimaraes	#3, #4
Caceres vs. Ho Kang	Caceres (-151 / Small)	Caceres (1.25x / Very Small)	PASS	#4
Marcello vs. Tokudome	Marcello (-156 / Small)	Marcello (1.66x / Moderate)	Marcello	#4
Mizugaki vs. Caraway	Mizugaki (-231 / Moderate)	Mizugaki (1.08x / Pick ‘Em)	Caraway	#4
Fukuda vs. Tavares	Fukuda (-118 / Pick ‘Em)	Fukuda (1.02x / Pick ‘Em)	PASS	#4
Yahya vs. Hirota	Hirota (-117 / Pick ‘Em)	Hirota (1.28x / Small)	PASS	#1
Bahadurzada vs. Hyun Kim	Hyun Kim (-295 / Moderate)	Bahadurzada (1.54x / Moderate)	Bahadurzada	#4
Lombard vs. Okami	Lombard (-204 / Moderate)	Lombard (1.05x / Pick ‘Em)	Okami	#4
Sanchez vs. Gomi	Sanchez (-294 / Moderate)	Sanchez (1.82x / Moderate)	PASS	#4
Struve vs. Hunt	Struve (-175 / Small)	Struve (1.25x / Very Small)	Hunt
Silva vs. Stann	Stann (-253 / Moderate)	Stann (1.48x / Moderate)	PASS	#1

Now, to the results — given the odds above:

The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks.

Favorites to consider: Marcello. I almost went with a PASS here, due to the home advantage — but Marcello projects to a slightly larger favorite than the odds suggest. Narrow bet here.

Underdogs to consider:

Hunt over Struve – Very nearly a pass. I am banking on Hunt’s relative home advantage, given his career in Japan and familiarity with east Asia to make him just barely worth a bet.
Caraway over Mizugaki – See above, but basically in reverse. Mizugaki seems like the guy to go with, but I cannot ignore the rating vs. odds difference.
Okami over Lombard – Okami and our rating system have had their tough times, but we like him here, especially given the location.
Guimaraes over Gyu Lim – Guimaraes projects as one of the strongest underdog bets in this series, so far– if you ignore the fact that his last fight could have went either way. Still, this seems like a 50/50.
Badhadurzada over Hyun Kim – The system has been big on Siyar for a long time now. Come and ride the train.

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Fightmatrix Program: UFC on Fuel TV 8 (03-03-2013)

Posted on February 28, 2013 by Jason

Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) vs. [#25MW] Wanderlei Silva (34-12-1)
Wanderlei Silva is the All-Time #1 ranked Light Heavyweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (1-2-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#12MW] Michael Bisping (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#82MW] Alessio Sakara (15-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Wanderlei Silva (1-2-0)
2012-06-23: L vs. [#21MW] Rich Franklin (29-7-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-11-19: W vs. [#17MW] Cung Le (9-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:49 of round 2
2011-07-02: L vs. [#30MW] Chris Leben (22-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 162, Wanderlei Silva 253
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) vs. [#12] Mark Hunt (8-7-0)
Mark Hunt is the All-Time #22 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (3-0-0)
2012-09-29: W vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:50 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1
2012-02-15: W vs. [#52HW+] Dave Herman (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Mark Hunt (3-0-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#25HW+] Ben Rothwell (32-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2011-02-27: W vs. [*] Chris Tuchscherer (21-4-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 155, Mark Hunt 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Stefan Struve leads 1-0
.

Lightweight (155)
[#23WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) vs. [#28] Takanori Gomi (34-8-0)
Takanori Gomi is the All-Time #1 ranked Lightweight and #15 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Diego Sanchez (2-1-0)
2012-02-15: L vs. [#6WW] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-03-03: W vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2010-10-23: W vs. [#64WW] Paulo Thiago (14-5-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Takanori Gomi (2-1-0)
2012-11-10: W vs. [#43LW] Mac Danzig (21-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#241FW] Eiji Mitsuoka (18-9-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:21 of round 2
2011-09-24: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:27 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Diego Sanchez 382, Takanori Gomi 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Diego Sanchez leads 2-0
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