In Episode 4, Coach Nelson employed a bizzare approach to matchmaking, having his fighters draw straws to determine who gets to fight this week. Julian Lane drew the short straw and chose Bristol Marunde as his opponent. The results were disastrous, with tentative Lane losing an unanimous decision in an uneventful two-rounder. Team Carwin regains the lead as well the control of matchmaking.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 2, Team Nelson 1.
Here’s who remains:
| Thursday, September 10th 2026: Rizin FF - Super Rizin 5 | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina |  [#17 W105] Rena Kubota | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#9 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 12/31/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L W W L | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
 [#7 W125] Liz Carmouche |  [#13 W125] Viviane Araujo | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 8/15/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#15 W125] Jena Bishop Last 5: W L W W W | Last Fight Date: 4/11/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#60 W125] Shanna Young Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Saturday, June 27th 2026: PFL San Diego: McKee vs. Isbulaev | |||
| [#6 FW] A.J. McKee |  [#19 FW] Salamat Isbulaev | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/20/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#28 FW] Adam Borics Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 2/07/2026 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#23 FW] Jesus Pinedo Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje | [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | [#1 LHW] | Alex Pereira | |
| [#1 HW] |  Ciryl Gane | [#8 HW] | Josh Hokit | |
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [#2 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev | |
| [#4 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | [#3 LW] | Charles Oliveira |
Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Antonio Silva (16-4-0) vs. [#13] Travis Browne (13-0-1)
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: L vs. [#2HW+/#7DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (10-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
2011-02-12: W vs. [*] Fedor Emelianenko (34-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Travis Browne (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#50HW+] Chad Griggs (11-2-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:29 of round 1
2011-09-24: W vs. [#95HW+] Rob Broughton (15-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-05-28: W vs. [#10HW+] Stefan Struve (25-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:11 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonio Silva 132, Travis Browne 167
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#6] Jake Ellenberger (27-6-0) vs. [#16] Jay Hieron (23-5-0)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#1WW] Martin Kampmann (20-5-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#14WW] Diego Sanchez (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-09-17: W vs. [#7MW] Jake Shields (28-6-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 0:53 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Jay Hieron (2-1-0)
2012-07-13: W vs. [#157WW] Romario Manoel da Silva (22-10-1) via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke) in 2:04 of round 2
2011-10-29: L vs. [#10WW] Ben Askren (10-0-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2011-05-07: W vs. [#11LW] Rick Hawn (14-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 126, Jay Hieron 84
Previous Match-up Record: Jay Hieron leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jay Hieron leads 2-1
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Flyweight (125)
[#6] Jussier da Silva (14-1-0) vs. [#8] John Dodson (13-5-0)
Jussier da Silva is the All-Time #4 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jussier da Silva (3-0-0)
2012-06-29: W vs. [#164FLY] Sidney Oliveira (5-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:45 of round 1
2012-03-18: W vs. [NA] Martin Coria (1-3-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:11 of round 3
2011-12-15: W vs. [#276FLY] Rodrigo Favacho dos Santo (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:52 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-05-05: W vs. [#27FLY] Tim Elliott (8-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] TJ Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1
2010-12-11: W vs. [#12FLY] John Moraga (11-1-0) via UD ()
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jussier da Silva 98, John Dodson 153
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
In Episode 3, Team Nelson tied the score with a huge upset win, as Nelson’s second-to-last pick Joey ‘Boom Boom’ Rivera outworked Sam Alvey, Carwin’s top pick and the overall top rank of the season. Rivera earned a majority decision after two rounds, with the scores of 20-18, 20-18, 19-19.
The current win tally is Team Carwin 1, Team Nelson 1.
All rankings are approximate as-of Episode 2 airing.
[#71 MW] Sam Alvey [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#149 WW] Leo Kuntz by TKO
Episode 3: lost to [#441 WW] Joey Rivera by majority decision
[#72 MW] Bristol Marunde [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#174 MW] George Lockhart by submission
[#129 WW] Eddy Ellis [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] David Michaud by submission
[#142 WW] Igor Araujo [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#300 MW] Cortez Coleman by submission
[#147 WW] Nick Herron-Webb [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#133 MW] Tim Ruberg by submission
[#215 WW] James Chaney [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Jerel Clark by submission
[#164 LW] Mike Ricci [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#83 MW] Jason South by TKO
[#292 WW] Cameron Diffley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Zane Kamaka by submission
Episode 2: lost to [#327 MW] Neil Magny by unanimous decision
[#327 MW] Neil Magny [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Frank Camacho by unanimous decision
Episode 2: defeated [#292 WW] Cameron Diffley by unanimous decision
[#441 WW] Joey Rivera [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#386 LW] Saad Awad by majority decision
Episode 3: defeated [#71 MW] Sam Alvey by majority decision
[#489 WW] Mike Hill [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Lev Magen by TKO
[#496 WW] John Manley [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#186 WW] Ricky Legere Jr by unanimous decision
[#460 LW] Julian Lane [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [NR] Diego Bautista by unanimous decision
[NR] Dom Waters [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#132 WW] Kevin Nowaczyk by TKO
[NR] Colton Smith [Team Nelson]
Episode 1: defeated [#325 MW] Jesse Barrett by unanimous decision
[NR] Matt Secor [Team Carwin]
Episode 1: defeated [#304 WW] Max Griffin by submission
Heavyweight (265)
[#11] Stefan Struve (24-5-0, 251.0lb) vs. [#16] Stipe Miocic (9-0-0, 239.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#33HW+] Lavar Johnson (17-6-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 1:05 of round 1
2012-02-15: W vs. [#47HW+] Dave Herman (21-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:52 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#53HW+] Pat Barry (7-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:22 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Stipe Miocic (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#68HW+] Shane del Rosario (11-1-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 3:14 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#59HW+] Philip De Fries (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#64LHW] Joey Beltran (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 126, Stipe Miocic 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#48] Dan Hardy (24-10-0, 169.0lb) vs. [#62] Amir Sadollah (6-3-0, 169.0lb)
Dan Hardy is the All-Time #25 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Dan Hardy (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via KO (Punch and Elbows) in 3:51 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [*] Chris Lytle (31-18-5) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:16 of round 3
2011-03-26: L vs. [#18LHW] Anthony Johnson (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Amir Sadollah (2-1-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#89WW] Jorge Lopez (11-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#104WW] Duane Ludwig (21-13-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-03-26: W vs. [#136WW] DaMarques Johnson (16-11-0) via Submission (Elbows) in 3:27 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Hardy 126, Amir Sadollah 137
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Dan Hardy leads 1-0
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Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Yves Jabouin (18-7-0, 136.0lb) vs. [#42] Brad Pickett (21-6-0, 135.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Yves Jabouin (3-0-0)
2012-05-15: W vs. [#72BW] Jeff Hougland (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#126BW] Walel Watson (9-5-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2011-08-27: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
Last 3 Fights: Brad Pickett (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#213BW] Damacio Page (15-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 2
2011-11-05: L vs. [#2BW] Renan Barao (29-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2010-12-16: W vs. [#53BW] Ivan Menjivar (24-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Yves Jabouin 137, Brad Pickett 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
I will be honest: I was not planning on doing the usual episode recaps for Season 16 of The Ultimate Fighter. Even after some kind reminders from our readers, I was at best lukewarm to the idea. The reason for this is that I believe the Ultimate Fighter series has ran its course; the format has become quite stale, and after fifteen seasons it went from ‘must watch TV’ for me to being just another show buried on the DVR that I might get to later in the week, if time allows. And if the sagging ratings are any indication, I am not the only UFC viewer who feels this way. After attempting a switch to the ‘TUF Live’ format in Season 15, UFC and FX didn’t find the live production to be cost effective and went back to the same tired format this season. As a result, the viewership is at its lowest point in the existence of the series, failing to break 1 million viewers in the first two episodes. Let’s face it, it’s very difficult for any show to keep its audience for that many seasons. Very few television series remain on air for this long, and I guess ‘TUF’ just doesn’t have the timeless appeal of shows like The Simpsons.
Nevertheless, I decided to take a look at the rankings of the Season 16 cast, and the results surprised me in two ways: first, the overall rankings of fighters who made it into the house were higher than I expected based on other recent seasons, and also there was a large discrepancy in the average ranking of the fighters picked for the two teams. And so, I am now actually curious to see how this tournament will break down. So here we are, a little late with our recap of Epsidose 1 & 2 of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs Team Nelson – or ‘TUF 16’, for short. Though some of the contestants are ranked in different weight divisions, they are all competing as welterweights on the show.
Keep reading to see how they stack up, with Team Carwin up 1-0 after the first team-vs-team matchup. Better late than never!
If you’ve been following recent updates, most notably those associated with the Upcoming Events page, you already know that we now display a meta-odds feature — average odds from about a dozen sports books.
I thought it would be interesting to compare results of UFC 152 and how we stacked up versus the gamblers. This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary rating that is primarily focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation. Either way, both systems have their place in determining who to expect to win the fight.
Before going in to that, a side note. I performed a simple study for recent notable fights and determined that due to the unpredictability of MMA, a favorite should rarely, if ever, exceed -1000 (a bet of $1,000 would profit you $100). Something to think about before you place that next bet on a fight like Silva/Bonnar.
Another side note: A part of the advantage of the rating system (like gambling, too) is that a rating difference can not only help determine an expected winner, but the margin of victory as well. With this in mind, I’m going to be very “black and white” in determining who got it more correct. Feel free to comment on this post and give your thoughts.
Ratings vs. Gamblers Scoreboard
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | “Who won” |
| Jones vs. Belfort | Jones (-856 / Massive) | Jones (3.59x^ / Massive) | Tie |
| Johnson vs. Benavidez | Benavidez (-261 / Moderate) | Benavidez (1.2x / Very Small) | Ratings |
| Bisping vs. Stann | Bisping (-198 / Small) | Stann (1.07x / Pick’Em) | Gamblers |
| Hamill vs. Hollett | Hamill (-357 / Large) | Hamill (1.59x / Moderate) | Tie |
| Swanson vs. Oliveira | Oliveira (-247 / Moderate) | Swanson (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Magalhaes vs. Pokrajac | Pokrajac (-158 / Small) | Pokrajac (1.22x / Small) | Tie |
| Grant vs. Dunham | Dunham (-137 / Pick’Em) | Grant (1.26x / Small) | Ratings |
| Pierson vs. Benoist | Benoist (-217 / Small) | Pierson (1.3x / Small) | Ratings |
| Brimage vs. Hettes | Hettes (-446 / Large) | Hettes (1.07x / Pick ‘Em) | Ratings |
| Gagnon vs. Watson | Watson (-188 / Small) | Gagnon (1.22x / Small) | Ratings |
| Noke vs. Brenneman | Brenneman (-224 / Moderate) | Brenneman (1.95x^ / Large) | Gamblers |
^ – Division move was not factored into rating difference.
We have further enhanced the Upcoming Events page by:
A couple of months ago, I looked at the state of the UFC & StrikeForce middleweight divisions, and proposed a few potential match-ups that made sense at the time. Since then, the climate at 185 lbs has changed quite a bit. The injury bug has been running rampant through UFC, and no weight class has been affected as hard as light-heavyweights. Fortunately, several middleweights were willing to move up a weight class on short notice. With three of the middleweight Top 5 – including the #1 and champion Anderson Silva – scheduled to take their next fight at 205 lbs, this creates an interesting power vacuum at the top of 185. And what better way to fill a vacuum in MMA than a good old-fashioned eight man tournament?
In recent history, UFC has stayed away from the tournament format, using it only on the rare occasion when a title is vacant or disputed, and capping the number of participants at four. Even with those limitations, things seem to go wrong quite often, as was the case with the scoring snafu in the flyweight opening round matchup between Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson. So, Zuffa’s reluctance to do tournaments is understandable. However, the best thing about the tourney I am proposing is that all the first-round match-ups are already scheduled, and we even have several viable alternate bouts, in case of inevitable injuries. They don’t even have to call it a tournament, but the following four bouts all have strong divisional implications, and having the winners face each other tourney-style would result in a perfect contender for Anderson Silva, whenever he decides he’s had his share of super-fights and comes back to defend his crown. Or, if Silva retires or decides to permanently move up to 205, this series of bouts could crown a new champion:
UFC 152 (September 22)
[#14] Brian Stann vs [#15] Michael Bisping
UFC on Fuel TV 6 (November 10th)
[#10] Rich Franklin vs [#45] Cung Le
UFC 155 (December 29)
[#3] Chris Weidman vs [#6] Tim Boetsch
[#8] Alan Belcher vs [#16] Yushin Okami
And the alternate bouts:
With UFC 152 inching closer day-by-day, it’s time for another chapter in the “Gambling Analysis” series.
In some ways, it is good that UFC 151 was canceled as it certainly boosts the PPV legitimacy of the UFC 152 card. With Jones taking on Belfort, who shouldn’t even be getting a whiff of a Light Heavyweight Championship, the co-main event is the fight that I’m expecting to deliver the most. As such, that’s the fight we’ll be looking at. In this fight, we have Joseph Benavidez, one of the best Bantamweights in history, taking on Demetrious Johnson, for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship. As of the time of writing, UFC 152 betting on Top Bet features Benavidez as a -290 favorite.
Although the point difference between the two fighters isn’t that large within the FightMatrix ranking system, I always like what I see with Benavidez. My feeling is that he does just about everything a little better than Johnson and holds physical advantages that will be key in this fight. I’m predicting he will come out even stronger for his second fight in the Flyweight division and take out ‘Mighty Mouse’ in the third round.
For a reference, here are the details for our past “gambling analysis” article picks:
If you had bet $100 on each one of the winners at the odds listed above, you would have made a profit of: $355.95. The listed odds are either approximations, or provided by our sponsors, so with a little work on your part, you could increase this total a bit as we don’t go out of our way to find the absolute best odds. Furthermore, if you heeded our advice on going “big” for certain match-ups (Machida/Couture), you’d likely have even more profit. We’re also doing pretty good on the specific outcome plays, but availability of these are not as prominent as they are in boxing betting, so we don’t include these as official bets.
Keep in mind that the above is for “entertainment purposes only”.
Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#1/#2DD] Jon Jones (16-1-0) vs. [#5MW] Vitor Belfort (21-9-0)
Jon Jones is the All-Time #9 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Vitor Belfort is the All-Time #14 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jon Jones (3-0-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#4LHW] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#3LHW] Lyoto Machida (18-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:26 of round 2
2011-09-24: W vs. [#7LHW] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#19LHW] Anthony Johnson (12-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#153WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
2011-02-05: L vs. [#1MW/#1DD] Anderson Silva (32-4-0) via KO (Front Kick and Punches) in 3:25 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jon Jones 154, Vitor Belfort 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#10DD] Joseph Benavidez (16-2-0) vs. [#2] Demetrious Johnson (15-2-1)
Last 3 Fights: Joseph Benavidez (3-0-0)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#9FLY] Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-5-6) via TKO (Punches) in 0:11 of round 2
2011-08-14: W vs. [#9BW] Eddie Wineland (19-8-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-03-19: W vs. [#18BW] Ian Loveland (16-9-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (1-1-1)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#4FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2011-10-01: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Dominick Cruz (19-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joseph Benavidez 203, Demetrious Johnson 106
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#14] Brian Stann (12-4-0) vs. [#15] Michael Bisping (22-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #20 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Brian Stann (2-1-0)
2012-04-14: W vs. [#58MW] Alessio Sakara (15-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-10-08: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:51 of round 2
2011-05-28: W vs. [#24MW] Jorge Santiago (25-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:29 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#94MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3
2011-02-27: W vs. [*] Jorge Rivera (20-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brian Stann 161, Michael Bisping 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
There’s no “set” schedule for this, but the following pages will now be updated on a daily basis — on average. It could happen twice a day, or every other day… but much more than it has been, which was only once per week.
We are definitely looking for recommendations on the “Upcoming Events” page. If you have any, please feel free to leave comments.
By the way… Does anyone know the best site to get betting odds for obscure events? “The Voice” seems to have odds for the most insignificant fights for HDNet cards. We may consider adding this as a new data point.
