In Episode 4, Team Jones gets on the board with the first notable upset of the season, as Collin Hart controlls Kevin ‘The King’ Casey for a unanimous 20-18 decision.
Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 1.
Next week: Bubba McDaniel vs Kelvin Gastelum.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
Before focusing too closely on our ratings vs. odds, please remember, that we take an overall average of the odds presented by roughly a dozen major sites. Like most other financial decisions in life, you can make a best effort to find improved MMA betting odds to suit your individual needs.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds (UFC on Fuel 7)
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Gomez vs. Harris | Gomez (-243 / Moderate) | Gomez (1.02x / Pick ‘Em) | Harris | #4 |
| Lee vs. Tezuka | Lee (-199 / Moderate) | Tezuka (1.61x / Moderate) | Tezuka | #4 |
| Nedkov vs. Watson | Watson (-128 / Very Small) | Nedkov (1.45x / Small) | PASS | #1, #4 |
| Grispi vs. Ogle | Grispi (-129 / Very Small) | Grispi (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Sass vs. Castillo | Sass (-113 / Pick ‘Em) | Sass (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Etim vs. Forte | Etim (-315 / Large) | Etim (1.84x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Riddle vs. Mills | Mills (-228 / Moderate) | Mills (1.04x / Pick ‘Em) | Riddle | #4 |
| Te Huna vs. Jimmo | Te Huna (-205 / Moderate) | Jimmo (1.67x / Moderate) | Jimmo | #3 |
| Nelson vs. Santiago | Nelson (-243 / Moderate) | Santiago (2.21x / Large) | PASS | #1, #3 |
| Manuwa vs. Diabate | Manuwa (-226 / Moderate) | Diabate (1.11x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Swanson vs. Poirier | Swanson (-133 / Very Small) | Swanson (1.53x / Moderate) | Swanson | |
| Barao vs. McDonald | Barao (-318 / Large) | Barao (1.84x / Moderate) | PASS |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks, mainly focused around the venue.
Favorites to consider: Swanson is the only favorite worth a bet and a small one at that. He has been on quite a roll lately and I would go with him here.
Underdogs to consider:
| Saturday, August 22nd 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira | |||
 [#1 W145] Cristiane Justino | [#4 W135] Ketlen Vieira | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/16/2026 [UFC] Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 15 in HIROSHIMA | |||
 [#3 W105] Si Woo Park |  [#7 W105] Moeri Suda | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/23/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#33 W105] Saki Kitamura Last 5: W W W L W | Last Fight Date: 3/07/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#15 W105] Namiko Kawabata Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Thursday, September 10th 2026: Rizin FF - Super Rizin 5 | |||
 [#1 W105] Natalia Kuziutina | [#16 W105] Rena Kubota | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 4/12/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#8 W105] Ayaka Hamasaki Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 12/31/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L W W L | ||
| [#162 WW] |  Conor McGregor | [#5 LW] |  Max Holloway | |
| [#6 LW] |  Paddy Pimblett | [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#9 LW] |  Benoit St. Denis | [#1 WW] | Islam Makhachev | |
| [#20 BW] | Farid Basharat | [NR] | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
| [NR] | Ramzan Jembiev | [#1 LW] | Justin Gaethje |
Notable Info
In Episode 3, Team Sonnen widens the lead and keeps control of the matchups as Uriah Hall knocked out Adam Cella with a brutal spinning kick that left Cella unconscious for several minutes.
Team Sonnen 2, Team Jones 0.
Next week: Kevin Casey vs Collin Hart.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
Notable Info
We’ve added another new feature – the team/gym affiliation for ranked fighters is now displayed in the Fighter Info popup (along with other interesting stats – you can view when you hover over a fighter’s name in our ranking pages).
In the future, we’ll add the ability to filter rankings on the Team Affiliation, as well as some other cool stuff.
Thank forum member kedbecker for this suggestion!
Changes in the Next Update
Near-Future Changes
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Camus vs. Kimura | Camus (-156 / Small) | Kimura (1.15x / Very Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Rivera vs. Figueroa | Rivera (-300 / Large) | Figueroa (1.45x / Small) | Figueroa | |
| Volkmann vs. Green | Volkmann (-353 / Large) | Volkmann (1.62x / Moderate) | Green | |
| Edwards vs. Vallie-Flagg | Edwards (-269 / Moderate) | Edwards (1.49x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Woodley vs. Hieron | Woodley (-150 / Small) | Hieron (1.01x / Nearly Even) | Hieron | |
| Tibau vs. Dunham | Tibau (-117 / Pick ‘Em) | Tibau (1.24x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Benavidez vs. McCall | Benavidez (-251 / Moderate) | Benavidez (1.75x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Fitch vs. Maia | Fitch (-184 / Moderate) | Maia (1.24x / Very Small) | Maia | |
| Overeem vs. Silva | Overeem (-382 / Large) | Overeem (2.10x / Large) | PASS | #2 |
| Evans vs. Little Nog | Evans (-486 / Large) | Evans (2.73x / Very Large) | Evans | |
| Aldo vs. Edgar | Aldo (-216 / Moderate) | Edgar (1.32x / Small) | PASS | #1, #2 |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Edgar a good bet, given that he’s moving in with an initial point advantage against Aldo and considering Aldo’s recent inactivity. Though, there are too many question marks here.
Favorites to consider: Evans. He is already a large favorite, but he projects as an even larger favorite. Great parlay material.
Underdogs to consider: This appears to be a great event for the underdogs.
Featherweight Championship (145)
[#2LW/#9DD] Frankie Edgar (15-3-1) vs. [#1/#8DD] Jose Aldo (21-1-0)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #20 ranked Absolute fighter.
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #1 ranked Featherweight and #11 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2012-08-11: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via SD (46-49, 48-47, 48-47)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 49-46)
2011-10-08: W vs. [#6LW] Gray Maynard (11-1-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:54 of round 4
Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (3-0-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#10FW] Chad Mendes (13-1-0) via KO (Knee) in 4:59 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Kenny Florian (14-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-04-30: W vs. [*] Mark Hominick (20-12-0) via UD (48-45, 48-46, 49-46)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 175, Jose Aldo 385
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#3] Rashad Evans (22-2-1) vs. [#15] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20-5-0)
Rashad Evans is the All-Time #6 ranked Light Heavyweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is the All-Time #13 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Rashad Evans (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-01-28: W vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2011-08-06: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Knee to the Body and Punches) in 4:48 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (1-2-0)
2011-12-10: W vs. [*] Tito Ortiz (17-11-1) via TKO (Punches and Elbows to the Body) in 3:15 of round 1
2011-03-26: L vs. [#10LHW] Phil Davis (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2010-09-25: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rashad Evans 287, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 420
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Rashad Evans leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (265)
[#3/#10DD] Alistair Overeem (36-11-0) vs. [#7] Antonio Silva (17-4-0)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #15 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (3-0-0)
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Kick to the Body and Punches) in 2:26 of round 1
2011-06-18: W vs. [#5HW+] Fabricio Werdum (16-5-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2010-12-31: W vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:19 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Antonio Silva (1-2-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#18HW+] Travis Browne (13-1-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:27 of round 1
2012-05-26: L vs. [#1HW+/#1DD] Cain Velasquez (11-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-09-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Daniel Cormier (11-0-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:56 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 400, Antonio Silva 120
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Alistair Overeem leads 1-0
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Keep Reading
In Episode 2, the first team-vs-team bout took place and Team Jones took their first casualty as Gilbert Smith was knocked out in the second round, courtesy of a flying knee from Luke Barnatt.
Interestingly, a number of Team Jones voiced a vote of no confidences in their teammate prior to the fight, and even asked the coaches to change the matchup as they felt Gilbert’s conditioning was not up to par. Coach Jones stuck by his pick, and though Smith lost it turned out his conditioning had little to do with it.
Team Sonnen 1, Team Jones 0.
Here’s who remains:
Keep Reading
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Mitchell vs. Thoresen | Thoresen (-235 / Moderate) | Thoresen (1.08x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #2 |
| Natal vs. Spencer | Natal (-250 / Moderate) | Natal (1.51x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Krauss vs. Stumpf | Krauss (-245 / Moderate) | Krauss (1.60x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Russow vs. Jordan | Russow (-187 / Moderate) | Russow (2.28x / Large) | Russow | |
| Bader vs. Matyushenko | Bader (-523 / Very Large) | Bader (3.47x / Very Large) | PASS | |
| Hioki vs. Guida | Guida (-244 / Moderate) | Guida (1.44x / Small) | PASS | #1 |
| Grant vs. Wiman | Grant (-120 / Pick ‘Em) | Grant (1.17x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Koch vs. Lamas | Koch (-153 / Small) | Lamas (1.87x / Large) | Lamas | #2 |
| Cerrone vs. Pettis | Pettis (-120 / Pick ‘Em) | Cerrone (1.17x / Very Small) | Cerrone | |
| Jackson vs. Teixeira | Teixeira (-320 / Large) | Jackson (2.37x / Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Johnson vs. Dodson | Johnson (-225 / Moderate) | Johnson (2.50x / Large) | Johnson |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Jackson and Mitchell good bets, but I just can’t justify doing so. If you really feel ballsy, then drop a couple bucks on these guys. They are borderline picks.
Favorites to consider: Johnson, Russow. These fighters are the betting favorites, but the rating difference suggest that they are not large enough favorites by odds.
Underdogs to consider
Here we go again, with another season of the seemingly endless Ultimate Fighter series. This one is featuring fourteen middleweights, and coached by the reigning UFC lightheavyweight champion Jon Jones and his next challenger Chael Sonnen. As has been the case in most recent seasons, the show starts out with 28 fighters facing off in the first episode, with the winners moving into the ‘TUF’ house and the losers going home.
Some notable facts, thus far:
After the fights are over, coaches pick their teams, and here’s how they stack up:
Flyweight Championship (125)
[#1/#8DD] Demetrious Johnson (16-2-1) vs. [#5] John Dodson (14-5-0)
Demetrious Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Flyweight fighter.
John Dodson is the All-Time #20 ranked Flyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Demetrious Johnson (2-0-1)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#3FLY] Joseph Benavidez (16-3-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 49-46)
2012-06-08: W vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-03-03: D vs. [#6FLY] Ian McCall (11-3-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: John Dodson (3-0-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#15FLY] Jussier da Silva (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:35 of round 2
2012-05-05: W vs. [#12FLY] Tim Elliott (9-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#47BW] T.J. Dillashaw (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:54 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Demetrious Johnson 126, John Dodson 113
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#8] Quinton Jackson (32-10-0) vs. [#20] Glover Teixeira (18-2-0)
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #2 ranked Light Heavyweight and #12 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (1-2-0)
2012-02-26: L vs. [#7LHW] Ryan Bader (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-09-24: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:14 of round 4
2011-05-28: W vs. [#19LHW] Matt Hamill (11-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Last 3 Fights: Glover Teixeira (3-0-0)
2012-10-13: W vs. [#92LHW] Fabio Maldonado (18-6-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2012-05-26: W vs. [#74LHW] Kyle Kingsbury (11-5-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:53 of round 1
2011-11-27: W vs. [#123HW+] Ricco Rodriguez (49-19-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:58 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Quinton Jackson 335, Glover Teixeira 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#8] Donald Cerrone (19-4-0) vs. [#13] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0)
Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (2-1-0)
2012-08-11: W vs. [#31LW] Melvin Guillard (30-13-2) via KO (Head Kick and Punch) in 1:16 of round 1
2012-05-15: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2011-12-30: L vs. [#6LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Anthony Pettis (2-1-0)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#21LW] Joe Lauzon (22-8-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#65LW] Jeremy Stephens (20-9-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-06-04: L vs. [#16LW] Clay Guida (29-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 168, Anthony Pettis 335
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Anthony Pettis leads 3-2
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