UPDATED – UFC on FX 7 / Odds vs. Ratings (01-19-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Trinaldo vs. Keith | Trinaldo (-401 / Large) | Trinaldo (2.93x / Very Large) | Trinaldo | |
| Prado vs. Alcantara | Prado (-249 / Moderate) | Alcantara (1.92x / Large) | Alcantara | #1, #3 |
| Alcantara vs. Nobre | Alcantara (-440 / Large) | Alcantara (2.95x / Very Large) | PASS | #1 |
| Barboza vs. Martins | Barboza (-307 / Large) | Barboza (1.71x / Moderate) | PASS | #3 |
| Nunes vs. Lentz | Nunes (-169 / Small) | Nunes (1.63x / Moderate) | Nunes | |
| Markes vs. Craig | Markes (-308 / Large) | Craig (1.14x / Very Small) | Craig | #3, #4 |
| Castro vs. Vieira | Vieira (-206 / Moderate) | Vieira (3.04x / Very Large) | Vieira | |
| Tavares vs. Nurmagomedov | Nurmagomedov (-185 / Moderate) | Nurmagomedov (1.38x / Small) | PASS | #4 |
| Gonzaga vs. Rothwell | Gonzaga (-117 / Pick ‘Em) | Rothwell (1.14x / Very Small) | PASS | |
| Dollaway vs. Sarafian | Sarafian (-177 / Small) | Dollaway (3.22x / Very Large) | Dollaway | |
| Belfort vs. Bisping | Belfort (-113 / Pick ‘Em) | Belfort (1.18x / Very Small) | PASS |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
There are three favorites worth backing: Trinaldo, Nunes, and Vieira.
This leaves THREE underdogs worth considering:
All three underdogs, Dollaway, I. Alcantara, and Craig are similar in that the oddsmakers are clearly looking past the ledgers, of which Brazilian ones are sketchy to begin with. Their opponents are favored for stylistic and skill purposes, so tread lightly.
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Saturday, August 22nd 2026: Professional Fighters League PFL Tampa: Cyborg vs. Vieira | |||
 [#1 W145] Cristiane Justino | [#4 W135] Ketlen Vieira | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 12/13/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#2 W145] Sara Collins Last 5: W W W W W | Last Fight Date: 5/16/2026 [UFC] Last Opponent: [#10 W135] Jacqueline Cavalcanti Last 5: W L W L W | ||
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 15 in HIROSHIMA | |||
 [#3 W105] Si Woo Park |  [#7 W105] Moeri Suda | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/23/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#33 W105] Saki Kitamura Last 5: W W W L W | Last Fight Date: 3/07/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#15 W105] Namiko Kawabata Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, July 18th 2026: RIZIN LANDMARK 15 in HIROSHIMA | |||
| [#5 W105] Saori Oshima | [#12 W105] Ye Ji Lee | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 3/07/2026 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#11 W105] Keito Oyama Last 5: L L W L W | Last Fight Date: 5/24/2026 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#31 W105] Eru Takebayashi Last 5: W L W L W | ||
Featured Fighters
| [NR] |  Tito Ortiz | [#5 LW] | Max Holloway | |
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [#20 BW] |  Farid Basharat | [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#100 WW] |  Jordan Zebo | [#2 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev | |
| [#4 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | [#12 LW] | Paddy Pimblett |
FightMatrix Program: UFC on FX 7: 1/19/2013
Middleweight (185)
[#5] Vitor Belfort (21-10-0) vs. [#8] Michael Bisping (23-4-0)
Michael Bisping is the All-Time #18 ranked Middleweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: L vs. [#1LHW/#3DD] Jon Jones (17-1-0) via Submission (Keylock) in 0:54 of round 4
2012-01-14: W vs. [#13LHW] Anthony Johnson (14-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:49 of round 1
2011-08-06: W vs. [#177WW] Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:52 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Michael Bisping (2-1-0)
2012-09-22: W vs. [#17MW] Brian Stann (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-01-28: L vs. [#2MW] Chael Sonnen (27-12-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-03: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via TKO (Knees to the Body and Punches) in 3:34 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vitor Belfort 119, Michael Bisping 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Vitor Belfort leads 2-1
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Middleweight (185)
[#48] C.B. Dollaway (12-4-0) vs. [*] Daniel Sarafian (7-2-0)
Last 3 Fights: C.B. Dollaway (1-2-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#133MW] Jason Miller (23-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-26)
2011-08-14: L vs. [#124MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 2
2011-03-03: L vs. [#13MW] Mark Munoz (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Daniel Sarafian (3-0-0)
2011-07-05: W vs. [#827MW] Ricardo Silva (11-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:01 of round 1
2011-02-26: W vs. [NA] Gilklei Antonio Silva (0-1-0) via Submission (Punches) in 1:44 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [#252MW] Mauricio Alonso (9-4-0) via UD ()
Days Since Last Pro Fight: C.B. Dollaway 238, Daniel Sarafian 564
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#16] Ben Rothwell (32-8-0) vs. [#20] Gabriel Gonzaga (13-6-0)
Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2012-04-21: W vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2011-09-24: L vs. [#12HW+] Mark Hunt (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 30-27)
2010-06-12: W vs. [#34LHW] Gilbert Yvel (38-16-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Gabriel Gonzaga (2-1-0)
2012-01-14: W vs. [#70HW+] Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [*] Parker Porter (5-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 1:50 of round 3
2010-10-23: L vs. [#26HW+] Brendan Schaub (8-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 273, Gabriel Gonzaga 371
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 1-0
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Keep Reading
The Imperfect Science of MMA Fight Data
A boring Saturday morning led me into one of the lesser known MMA fight databases on the Internet: http://www.valetudo.ru
Although their overall accuracy and capacity is far less than that of Sherdog’s Fight Finder, they house quite a bit of eastern European and Russian fight results that are valid. I presume that Sherdog visits their site and pulls Russian results from them, months, and sometimes even years later.
Some preliminary data retrieval brought to a light a potential prospect that seemingly no one has stumbled upon — as far as I know. It also presented a common problem and difficulty with MMA data collection.
Case in point, a fighter named Kairat Ahmietov, or is it Kayrat Akhmetov, or maybe it’s Kairat Ahmetov? Cyrillic to English conversion, typos, and misspellings aside, this type of identity mix-up is not uncommon, especially when dealing with non-Americans.
However, what do you do in this case?
Kairat Ahmietov @ Sherdog (3 wins, 0 losses)
Kairat Ahmetov @ Valetudo (2 wins, 0 losses)
Kayrat Akhmetov @ Valetudo (15 wins, 0 losses)
The worst part about this case, is that Valetudo, the Russian-based site is the main offender for a mix-up situation. Also visit the 15-0 profile and note that 12 of his 15 opponents are unknown. The most intriguing part about this fighter, is that he is allegedly a Flyweight. Given the weakness of the division and its recent action-packed debut into the UFC, the idea of an unknown, potentially undefeated Flyweight with nearly 20 wins is something to salivate over.
But, what about pro/am distinction? A Youtube journey of some of his fully known fights (opponents with actual names) mentions the word “amateur” in the description. Then again, does rural Kazakhstan have a legitimate commission to make this type of sanctioning distinction? Should we care and just record the results anyway, knowing that there are likely thousands of less legitimate fights already in the database?
Just some food for thought, for the thinkers out there.
Fightmatrix Program: UFC 155 (12-29-2012)
Heavyweight Championship (265)
[#1/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0, 239.0lb) vs. [#2/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0, 240.0lb)
Junior dos Santos is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #7 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Junior dos Santos (3-0-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#6HW+] Frank Mir (16-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2011-11-12: W vs. [#2HW+/#8DD] Cain Velasquez (10-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2011-06-11: W vs. [*] Shane Carwin (12-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (2-1-0)
2012-05-26: W vs. [#7HW+] Antonio Silva (17-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2011-11-12: L vs. [#1HW+/#2DD] Junior dos Santos (15-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:04 of round 1
2010-10-23: W vs. [*] Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:12 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Junior dos Santos 217, Cain Velasquez 217
Previous Match-up Record: Junior dos Santos leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#17] Jim Miller (21-4-0, 156.0lb) vs. [#18] Joe Lauzon (22-7-0, 156.0lb)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #22 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (1-2-0)
2012-05-05: L vs. [#5LW] Nate Diaz (16-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:09 of round 2
2012-01-20: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:04 of round 1
2011-08-14: L vs. [#1LW/#5DD] Ben Henderson (18-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Joe Lauzon (2-1-0)
2012-08-04: W vs. [#52LW] Jamie Varner (20-7-1) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:44 of round 3
2012-02-26: L vs. [#12LW] Anthony Pettis (15-2-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2011-10-08: W vs. [#32LW] Melvin Guillard (30-12-2) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 0:47 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 238, Joe Lauzon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#6] Tim Boetsch (16-4-0, 186.0lb) vs. [#22] Constantinos Philippou (11-2-0, 186.0lb)
Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (3-0-0)
2012-07-21: W vs. [#7MW] Hector Lombard (32-3-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-02-26: W vs. [#16MW] Yushin Okami (27-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 3
2011-09-24: W vs. [#35MW] Nick Ring (13-1-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Constantinos Philippou (3-0-0)
2012-07-07: W vs. [#52MW] Riki Fukuda (19-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#68MW] Court McGee (14-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-12-10: W vs. [#123MW] Jared Hamman (13-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:11 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tim Boetsch 161, Constantinos Philippou 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
UFC 155 / Odds vs. Ratings
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above. I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Holloway vs. Garcia | Holloway (-342 / Large) | Holloway (1.58x / Moderate) | PASS | #6 |
| Moraga vs. Cariaso | Moraga (-177 / Small) | Cariaso (1.47x / Moderate) | Cariaso | |
| Duffee vs. De Fries | Duffee (-287 / Moderate) | Duffee (1.30x / Small) | De Fries | |
| Johnson vs. Jury | Johnson (-232 / Moderate) | Johnson (3.16x / Very Large) | PASS | #3 |
| Guillard vs. Varner | Guillard (-129 / Very Small) | Guillard (1.30x / Small) | Guillard | |
| Perez vs. Bloodworth | Perez (-416 / Large) | Perez (3.84x / Massive) | Perez | |
| Pickett vs. Wineland | Wineland (-114 / Pick ‘Em) | Wineland (1.09x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | |
| Leben vs. Brunson | Leben (-150 / Small) | Leben (1.62x / Moderate) | PASS | #2 |
| Okami vs. Belcher | Okami (-116 / Pick ‘Em) | Belcher (1.39x / Small) | Belcher | |
| Boetsch vs. Philippou | Philippou (-115 / Pick ‘Em) | Boetsch (1.83x / Large) | Boetsch | |
| Miller vs. Lauzon | Miller (-219 / Moderate) | EVEN | Lauzon | |
| dos Santos vs. Velasquez | dos Santos (-203 / Moderate) | dos Santos (1.56x / Moderate) | PASS |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
There are two favorites worth backing: Guillard and Perez. Guillard is worth a very small bet, while Perez looks like good parlay material. He’s got a tremendous rating advantage over his opponent.
This leaves FIVE underdogs worth considering:
De Fries vs. Duffee – This one is worth a very small flier at best. Duffee is the ratings favorite, but the rating difference suggests Duffee projects to approximately a -160 favorite, not a -300 one.
Lauzon vs. Miller – A “dead even” fight by FightMatrix standards, so it’s worth taking a chance on Lauzon who is about a 2-to-1 underdog right now.
Belcher vs. Okami – Okami is a guy that the system has always shown a relative dislike for. Take that with a grain of salt and pass, or ride with Belcher for a moderate bet, even if he becomes a very slight favorite.
Cariaso vs. Moraga – Cariaso recently dropped from Bantam and took his points with him. If the weight comes off easily, he makes a fairly strong underdog bet.
Boetsch vs. Philippou – Though helped just a bit by his questionable decision win over Lombard, he looks to be the most solid underdog bet of the bunch.
FightMatrix 2012 Awards: Upsets of the Year / Most Improved
We feature two upsets per year, the most “noteworthy” and the most “lopsided”.
The most “noteworthy” upset is based on a net difference of pre-fight rating points, normalized by division.
This was not a big year for notable upsets, but the most noteworthy based on our standards was: Josh Sampo UD(3) Antonio Banuelos. For this win Sampo also earns the “most improved” award.
The most “lopsided” upset is based on the largest divisible difference between pre-fight rating points.
The upset that makes the notability cut is Ilir Latifi UD(3) Tony Lopez.
In the world of obscurity, quite possibility the biggest upset in history took place — assuming the previous records are correct (a main reason we have a notability requirement). On 9/8, a previously 0-3 fighter named Ben Santiago TKO’d Paulo Goncalves Silva, who was ranked and held a previous record of 18-7.
FightMatrix 2012 Awards: Women’s Fighter of the Year – Ronda Rousey
It should come as no surprise that Ronda Rousey, now holder of the only Women’s MMA championship that really matters, is our Women’s 2012 Fighter of the Year. With two first round finishes against the best competition available, you could not have given the award to anyone else.
The first runner-up is Ayaka Hamasaki who went 3-0 on the year against quality ranked opposition, including a dominant win over Yuka Tsuji, one of the best women’s fighters in history. Hamasaki is undoubtedly the best women’s fighter in Asia and with a record of 9-0, she’s beaten the best over there (sans Fujii) in her division. With the 115lb division relatively unestablished in the USA, let’s hope it picks up and she fights Aguilar before exiting her prime.
In third place is Jessica Penne who put the Atomweight division on the map by beating the consensus #1 and our 2011 Women’s Fighter of the Year, the previously undefeated Naho Sugiyama.
The honorable mention goes to Jessica Aguilar. Her questionable win over the aged Megumi Fujii to propel her to the top of the division did not go unnoticed, but aside from that, her year was relatively quiet.
More on ‘Octagon Time’
We added another feature to our new Octagon Time page: longest & shortest average UFC fight time (minimum of 5 UFC bouts required).
Holding the record for the shortest average fight time is the UFC 1 veteran Pat Smith, who achieve a 4-2 record in the promotion while averaging a little over a minute per fight. On the other end of the spectrum is the current lightweight champion Benson Henderson. At a perfect 6-0 in UFC, all of his fights in the Octagon went the distance. Between three 3-rounders and three 5-rounders, this averages out to a hefty 20 minutes per fight.
Thanks to the Underground forum member ‘Narcolepsy’ for the suggestion!
FightMatrix 2012 Awards: Men’s Rookie of the Year – Smealinho Rama
Amassing a 5-0 record in 2012, finishing all opponents in the first round, 74th ranked Heavyweight, Smealinho Rama is our Men’s Rookie of the Year
New Feature: ‘Most Octagon Time’
As you may already know, during his UFC on Fox fight against Rory MacDonald, former lightweight and welterweight UFC champion BJ Penn surpassed Tito Ortiz’s record for the most total fight time in the UFC Octagon.
We decided to put together a Top 25 of UFC fighters with most Octagon time clocked in over the course of their career. Of course, BJ Penn and Tito Ortiz sit atop of the list with over 5 hours of fight time. Beneath them, the only 2 fighters with 4+ hours of UFC fight time are Randy Couture and Georges St. Pierre.
With Ortiz and Couture retired and BJ Penn clearly near the end of his career, GSP is poised to overtake the Top 3 and to set a new record within 2 fights. In fact, if his next fight goes the full 5 rounds as has been the trend in all his recent fights, he will surpass Ortiz and be only 39 seconds behind Penn’s record. Even if BJ continues fighting, he is very unlikely to stave off St. Pierre, as Penn will not be fighting any 5-rounders.
See the full Top 25 here: Most Octagon Time
This will be a permanent feature in our UFC Records section.