I myself am not a professional gambler, but I do like to take a look at the odds of a big/intriguing fight from time-to-time and compare it to the rating system, so here we are again.

BetUS, the online sportsbook offers Jones as a -210 favorite, which means that to win $100, you would actually have to bet $210.  Now, comparing the odds to the perceived chance of winning is not like comparing oranges to oranges (more like oranges to nectarines), but doing so reveals that Jones would be a good bet if you think he has greater than a 67.7% chance of winning.

Jones does appear to have a lot going for him, as he’s younger, taller, rangier, and has never REALLY tasted defeat.  Shogun has experience and one of the best (T)KO finishing rates in the history of MMA (5th all-time with a minimum of 15 wins), but is again coming off yet another knee injury — something that could jeopardize explosiveness and cardiovascular fitness, as we saw in his bout against Griffin.

Under normal circumstances, I would probably take Rua in the upset here, but I think with this latest knee injury, and Jones’s relentless ascent to the top, that at UFC 128, a true star will be born.  Look for a nip/tuck first round possibly going to Rua, then Jones taking over, and eventually stopping Rua late in the 2nd round, or early in the 3rd.  I think Jones is a good bet up to about -240.  This is one of those cases that a higher rank (Rua’s #1 vs. Jones #5) means virtually nothing, as its simply going to be a “changing of the guard” situation.

This kind of dominant win SHOULD see Jones go to #1, Rua drop to #3, with Jones/Evans at #1/2, setting their bout up as a true Champ vs. #1 Contender situation.

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
[#1] Mauricio Rua vs. [#5] Jon Jones

Bantamweight
[#3] Urijah Faber vs. [#16] Eddie Wineland

Lightweight
[#7] Jim Miller vs. [#54] Kamal Shalrous

Middleweight
[#7] Nate Marquardt vs. [#27] Dan Miller

Heavyweight
[#17] Mirko Filipovic vs. [#18] Brendan Schaub

Light Heavyweight
[#29] Luis Artur Cane vs. [#57] Eliot Marshall

Lightweight
[#102] Edson Barboza vs.  [#170] Anthony Njokuani

Bantamweight
[#2] Joseph Benavidez vs. [#28 FW] Ian Loveland

Featherweight
[#29] Raphael Assuncao vs. [#31] Erik Koch

Light Heavyweight (195lb)
[#80 MW] Costantinos Philippou vs. [#116 MW] Nick Catone

Welterweight
[#15] Mike Pyle vs. [#18] Ricardo Almeida

Lightweight
[#29] Gleison Tibau vs. [#31] Kurt Pellegrino

Several major MMA events took place in the past week: Bellator FC kicked off a new season with the first round of a welterweight tournament, and a new broadcast partner in MTV2.  Strikeforce lightheavyweight and women’s bantamweight titles were put on the line, and UFC checked in with a third installment in the “UFC Live on Versus” series.  I will also briefly cover UFC 127, the results of which were reflected in the previous ranking update.

Controversy on Versus

In the main event of ‘UFC Live 3’, a bloodied and swollen Diego Sanchez had his hand raised in a questionable unanimous decision win over Martin Kampmann.  All three judges scored the bout 29-28 Sanchez, apparently choosing Diego’s relentless aggression over Martin’s effective counter-striking and takedown defense.  Sanchez rises three spots to #9 WW, while Kampmann falls to #10.

In the middleweight division, UFC newcomer Chris Weidman made his debut on two weeks notice and with only 4 MMA bouts under his belt, and performed admirably in his decision win over Alessio Sakara.  Weidman makes a huge jump in the rankings – 101 spots up to #22 MW, while Sakara falls to #30.  In other middleweight bouts, Mark Munoz and Rousimar Palhares enter the Top 20: Munoz with a first-round TKO of C.B. Dollaway, and Palhares with a trademark heel hook submission over David Branch in an untelevised bout.   Dollaway and Branch fall to #44 and #47, respectively.

WEC lightweights Shane Roller and Danny Castillo made a splash in their UFC debut and earned a Top 50 ranking, as Roller knocked out Thiago Tavares and Castillo outworked Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson to a unanimous decision.   In both cases, the loser’s spot on the UFC roster may be in jeopardy: this marks the third consecutive loss for the Ultimate Fighter 2 welterweight winner Stevenson, and Tavares has been very inconsistent and plagued by injuries throughout his UFC career; a tough spot to be in for the ultra-competitive lightweight division.

Notable

Nearly a year after losing the WEC bantamweight title to Dominic Cruz in his very first defense, former champion [#4] Brian Bowles returned to action in a rematch with [#64] Damacio Page, putting Page to sleep with a guillotine choke at 3:30 of the first round – an outcome identical to their previous bout, down to the second.  Both fighters’ rankings remain unchanged.

Keep Reading

Friday – ADFC  (Round 3)

Heavyweight
[#20] Shamil Abdurahimov vs. [#98] Marcos Oliveira

.

Friday – Jewels 12

Women’s Flyweight
[#4] Ayaka Hamasaki vs. [#5 SFW] Jessica Aguilar
Non-title fight

.

Friday – Shark Fights 14

Women’s Super Flyweight
[#1] Tara LaRosa vs. [#16] Carina Damm

.

Saturday – Shooto (Shootor’s Legacy 2)

Flyweight
[#6] Kiyotaka Shimizu vs. [#32] Shinichi Hanawa
[#7] Yuki Shojo vs. [#28] Noboru Tahara
[#18] Masaaki Sugara vs. [#23] Junya Kudo

.

Notable Info

• Welterweight and Lightweight expanded to an unprecedented Top 500.
• New stat added to the “Records & Stats” page — Best (T)KO/Win ratio.

Friday – Fresquez Promotions

Women’s Bantamweight
[#17] Christina Domke L-(TKO2) [*] Holly Holm
Holm’s debut. She is the #1 current Women’s P4P boxer and likely Top 5 in women’s boxing history.

Light Heavyweight
[#26] Keith Jardine W-(TKO1) [#252] Aron Lofton

.

Saturday – Strikeforce

Light Heavyweight
[#7] Dan Henderson vs. [#10] Rafael Cavalcante
Henderson recently moved to #9 in our All-Time Absolute list.

Women’s Bantamweight
[#1] Marloes Coenen vs. [#4] Liz Carmouche
Carmouche was our 2010 Women’s Rookie of the Year.

Middleweight
[#20] Tim Kennedy vs. [#29 LHW] Melvin Manhoef

.

Saturday – BellatorFC 35

Welterweight
[#21] Jay Hieron vs. [#74 MW] Anthony Lapsley

.

Saturday – Chicago Cagefighting Championship

Featherweight (140lb)
[#56] Chase Beebe vs. [#274 LW] Steve Kinnisen

Featherweight
[#263] Jens Pulver vs. [#285 BW] Wade Choate

Welterweight
[#9] Martin Kampmann vs.  [#12] Diego Sanchez

Middleweight
[#24] Mark Munoz vs. [#30] CB Dollaway

Middleweight
[#15] Alessio Sakara vs. [#123] Chris Weidman

Bantamweight
[#4] Brian Bowles vs. [#64] Damacio Page

Lightweight
[#50] Joe Stevenson vs. [#78] Danny Castillo

Light Heavyweight
[#35] Cyrille Diabate vs. [*] Steve Cantwell

Lightweight
[#49] Shane Roller vs. [#80] Thiago Tavares

Bantamweight
[#15] Takeya Mizugaki vs. [#49] Reuban Duran

Middleweight
[#126] Dong Yi Yang vs. [#178] Rob Kimmons

Middleweight
[#22] Rousimar Palhares vs. [#38] Dave Branch

Light Heavyweight
[#99] Igor Pokrajac vs. [#130] Todd Brown

Top 5 Highest Ranked FightMatrix Fighters not on Sherdog Rankings

(#6 FW) Kazuyuki Miyata
(#6 LW) Clay Guida
(#8 WW) Paul Daley
(#8 LHW) Randy Couture
(#8 BW) Zach Makovsky

.
Top 5 Largest Rank Difference between Sherdog Ranked and FightMatrix

(-16 HW) Roy Nelson
(-10 FW) Dustin Poirier
(-10 BW) Brad Pickett
(-10 LW) Sean Sherk
(-9 BW) Demetrious Johnson

We decided to exclude Rambaa Somdet, as he is technically a Mini-Flyweight fighter, Dan Henderson, who we rank in different divisions, and Wanderlei Silva, who was recently dropped off of Sherdog’s list for inactivity.

Please share your thoughts in the Comments.  If we missed someone, please let us know.

Notable Info

• Welterweight and Lightweight expanded to Top 400.

Friday – DEEP 52 Impact

DEEP Bantamweight Championship
[#16] Hiroshi Nakamura UD(3) [#6] Masakazu Imanari (C)

Women’s Flyweight
[#8] Seo Hee Ham UD(3) [#9] Saori Ishioka

.

Friday – MFC 28 (HDNet)

Light Heavyweight
[#28] Ryan Jimmo vs. [#51] Dwayne Lewis

Light Heavyweight
[#48] Emanuel Newton vs. [#50] Rodney Wallace

Lightweight (160lb)
[#50] Drew Fickett vs. [#89] Matt Veach

.

Saturday – BAMMA 5

Heavyweight (215lb Catch)
[#33] Ricco Rodriguez vs. [#161 LHW] James McSweeney
Rodriguez missed weight by 2 pounds.

Saturday – G-Force Fights

Lightweight
[#6 FW] Luis Palomino vs. [*] John Robles

Saturday – Cage Warriors FC 40

Women’s Super Flyweight
[#4 BW] Roxanne Modafferi vs. [#6] Rosi Sexton
Modafferi’s first fight below 130 lbs.

Welterweight
[#3] Jon Fitch vs. [#4] B.J. Penn

Middleweight
[#10] Michael Bisping vs. [#32] Jorge Rivera

Lightweight
[#8] George Sotiropoulos vs. [#41] Dennis Siver

Welterweight
[#11] Chris Lytle vs. [#82] Brian Ebersole

Middleweight
[#49] Kyle Noke vs. [#92] Chris Camozzi

Lightweight
[#68] Spencer Fisher vs. [#94] Ross Pearson

Light Heavyweight
[#26] Alexander Gustafsson vs. [#54] James Te Huna

Middleweight
[#21] Riki Fukuda vs. [*] Nick Ring

Light Heavyweight
[#191 HW] Anthony Perosh vs. [*] Tom Blackledge

Featherweight
[*] Zhang Tie Quan vs. [*] Jason Reinhardt

Heavyweight
[#67] Chris Tuchscherer vs. [#159] Mark Hunt

Lightweight
[#82] Maciej Jewtuszko vs. [#451] Curt Warburton