In Episode 12, the semi-finals took place. With the score tied between teams at 6 wins each, Team Sonnen took both wins, sending two teammates to face off in the finale as Kevin Gastelum choked out Josh Samman in the first round, and Uriah Hall stopped Dylan Andrews with ground-and-pound in the second.
Final win tally is Team Sonnen 8, Team Jones 6.
A recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
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| Saturday, March 14th 2026: Pancrase - 361 | |||
 [#4 SW] Yuta Miyazawa | [#9 SW] Kanji Funada | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/09/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#33 SW] Tateo Iino Last 5: W W L W W | Last Fight Date: 4/27/2025 [Pancrase] Last Opponent: [#52 SW] Takafumi Ato Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Friday, March 6th 2026: RIZIN 52 | |||
| [#5 W105] Saori Oshima | [#11 W105] Keito Oyama | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [#1 W105] Seika Izawa Last 5: W L L W L | Last Fight Date: 11/02/2025 [Rizin Fighting Federation] Last Opponent: [NR] Bo Mi Lee Last 5: L W W W W | ||
| Sunday, March 8th 2026: Deep Osaka Impact 2026 1st Round | |||
| [#7 W105] Moeri Suda | [#10 W105] Namiko Kawabata | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/15/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#5 W105] Saori Oshima Last 5: W W W W L | Last Fight Date: 5/25/2025 [DEEP] Last Opponent: [#36 W105] Honoka Shigeta Last 5: L L L W W | ||
| [#5 LW] |  Justin Gaethje | [#1 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | |
| [#11 LW] |  Paddy Pimblett | [#2 LW] |  Arman Tsarukyan | |
| [#1 FW] |  Alexander Volkanovski | [#1 WW] |  Islam Makhachev | |
| [#7 LW] |  Benoit St. Denis | [NR] |  Conor McGregor | |
| [#8 LW] |  Dan Hooker | [#1 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev |
Women Atomweight Championship (105)
[#1/#4DD] Jessica Penne (10-1-0, 104.9lb, -526) vs. [#7] Michelle Waterson (10-3-0, 104.7lb, +373)
Last 3 Fights: Jessica Penne (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#6AW] Naho Sugiyama (8-2-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:20 of round 2
2012-04-28: W vs. [#4AW] Lisa Ellis (15-8-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:48 of round 3
2010-11-19: W vs. [#23AW] Amy Davis (3-4-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#8AW] Lacey Schuckman (8-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-01-21: W vs. [#11AW] Diana Rael (4-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2010-04-24: W vs. [NA] Masako Yoshida (16-17-5) via TKO (Punches) in 4:17 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jessica Penne 181, Michelle Waterson 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica Penne leads 1-0
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Women Flyweight Championship (125)
[#3/#9DD] Barb Honchak (7-2-0, 124.6lb, -132) vs. [#4] Vanessa Porto (15-5-0, 124.8lb, -102)
Last 3 Fights: Barb Honchak (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#19FLY] Aisling Daly (12-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: W vs. [#33FLY] Bethany Marshall (4-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 2
2011-10-01: W vs. [#25FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (15-10-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:46 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Vanessa Porto (2-1-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#7FLY] Tara LaRosa (21-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-07-28: L vs. [#10BW] Sarah DAlelio (7-3-0) via Submission (Reverse Triangle Armbar) in 3:16 of round 1
2012-03-10: W vs. [NA] Luana Teixeira (1-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:41 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Barb Honchak 181, Vanessa Porto 181
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Barb Honchak leads 1-0
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Women Featherweight (145)
[*] Cristiane Justino (10-1-0, 144.8lb, -2585) vs. [#13] Fiona Muxlow (6-2-0, 143.8lb, +1343)
Cristiane Justino is the All-Time #7 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Cristiane Justino (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2011-12-17: NC vs. [#10FW] Hiroko Yamanaka (12-3-0) via No Decision Overturned by CSAC in 0:16 of round 1
2010-06-26: W vs. [NA] Jan Finney (8-10-0) via KO (Knee to the Body) in 2:56 of round 2
2010-01-30: W vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:40 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Fiona Muxlow (2-1-0)
2012-12-31: L vs. [#1FW/#3DD] Marloes Coenen (21-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2012-10-27: W vs. [NA] Leanne Reid (0-1-0) via UD ()
2011-06-25: W vs. [NA] Deney Hayward (0-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cristiane Justino 475, Fiona Muxlow 95
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cristiane Justino leads 1-0
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This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Abedi vs. Yousef | Abedi (-139 / Very Small) | Abedi (1.59x / Moderate) | Abedi | |
| Lawlor vs. Kuiper | Lawlor (-184 / Moderate) | Lawlor (1.52x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Alloway vs. LaFlare | LaFlare (-192 / Moderate) | Alloway (1.41x / Small) | PASS | #3 |
| Brimage vs. McGregor | McGregor (-166 / Small) | McGregor (1.06x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #1 |
| Amagov vs. Spang | Amagov (-166 / Small) | Amagov (2.41x / Large) | Amagov | |
| Troeng vs. Cella | Troeng (-239 / Moderate) | Troeng (6.90x / Massive) | PASS | #3, #4 |
| Johnson vs. Madadi | Johnson (-232 / Moderate) | Johnson (1.88x / Large) | PASS | #4 |
| Peralta vs. Corassani | Peralta (-357 / Large) | Peralta (3.55x / Massive) | Peralta | #4 |
| Brandao vs. Garza | Brandao (-212 / Moderate) | Garza (1.44x / Small) | Garza | |
| Pickett vs. Easton | Pickett (-160 / Small) | Pickett (1.43x / Small) | PASS | |
| Mitrione vs. De Fries | Mitrione (-328 / Large) | Mitrione (1.67x / Moderate) | De Fries | |
| Pearson vs. Couture | Pearson (-402 / Large) | Pearson (1.08x / Pick ‘Em) | Couture | |
| Mousasi vs. Latifi | Mousasi (-1190 / Massive) | Mousasi (2.58x / Large) | Latifi | #2, #4 |
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Abedi, Amagov, Peralta
Underdogs to consider:
Latifi over Mousasi – A true shot in the dark, but -1190 is ridiculous territory and Latifi is actually a quality opponent.
De Fries over Mitrione – A very small bet, as we think De Fries is a slight bargain.
Couture over Pearson – Couture is a great bargain and although not favored by the ratings, Pearson is no world beater himself.
Garza over Brandao – All things considered, Garza looks like a decent bet here.
In Episode 11, the remaining quarter-final matchups were again split between the teams:
Team Sonnen’s Uriah Hall knocked out ‘wild card’ Bubba McDaniel with a punch in the opening seconds of the very first round, while Team Jones’ Josh Samman forced a tapout from Jimmy Quinlan late in the first with ground-and-pound from back mount.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 6, Team Jones 6.
The semi-final matchups are set:
| Team Jones | Team Sonnen | |
| Dylan Andrews | vs | Uriah Hall |
| Josh Samman | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
Quick recap of all the season’s fights after the break.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Gegard Mousasi (33-3-2, -1190) vs. [#33] Ilir Latifi (7-2-0, +664)
Gegard Mousasi is the All-Time #16 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Gegard Mousasi (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [*] Mike Kyle (19-9-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:09 of round 1
2011-12-17: W vs. [#43LHW] Ovince St. Preux (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2011-07-16: W vs. [*] Hiroshi Izumi (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:29 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (3-0-0)
2012-10-06: W vs. [#141LHW] Jorge Oliveira (5-3-1) via UD ()
2012-05-26: W vs. [#39LHW] Tony Lopez (32-10-0) via UD ()
2012-03-23: W vs. [NA] Denis Bogdanov (0-4-0) via Submission (Keylock) in ? of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gegard Mousasi 84, Ilir Latifi 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gegard Mousasi leads 1-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#44] Ross Pearson (14-6-0, -402) vs. [#53] Ryan Couture (6-1-0, +314)
Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (2-1-0)
2012-12-15: W vs. [#123LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 3
2012-06-22: L vs. [#6FW] Cub Swanson (19-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2
2011-12-30: W vs. [*] Junior Assuncao (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Ryan Couture (3-0-0)
2013-01-12: W vs. [#56LW] K.J. Noons (11-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#210LW] Joe Duarte (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2012-03-03: W vs. [#212LW] Conor Heun (9-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:52 of round 3
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ross Pearson 112, Ryan Couture 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#34] Matt Mitrione (5-2-0, -328) vs. [#75] Philip De Fries (9-2-0, +261)
Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (1-2-0)
2012-12-15: L vs. [#11HW+] Roy Nelson (18-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
2011-10-29: L vs. [#16HW+] Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) via UD (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-06-26: W vs. [#157HW+] Christian Morecraft (7-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:28 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Philip De Fries (1-2-0)
2012-12-29: L vs. [#29HW+] Todd Duffee (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:04 of round 1
2012-08-04: W vs. [#247HW+] Oli Thompson (10-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:16 of round 2
2012-02-15: L vs. [#22HW+] Stipe Miocic (9-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:43 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Matt Mitrione 112, Philip De Fries 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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In Episode 10, two of the quarter-final matchups took place, with each team taking home a win:
Team Jones’ Dylan Andrews stopped Luke Barnatt with strikes in the third (overtime) round, while in the battle of unranked fighters, Team Sonnen’s Kevin Gastelum disposed of Colin Hart in a wild striking exchange in the very first round.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 5, Team Jones 5.
Here’s who remains:
We’ve enhanced our rankings by adding a couple of new filter features:
For example, you can now view all the heavyweights in the American Top Team camp:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/heavyweight-265-lbs/?TeamFilter=American+Top+Team
Or, all American welterweights who last fought outside of UFC and have no known scheduled bouts:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/welterweight/?OrgFilter=-1&NatFilter=US&OrgFilter2=0
Or all UFC lightweights under 30:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/lightweight/?OrgFilter=UFC&AgeToFilter=29
The possibilities & combinations are (nearly) limitless!
In Episode 9, Team Jones evens the score in the wildcard bout. After winning the first round and losing the second, Kevin Casey failed to answer the bell for the tie-breaking third round. Bubba McDaniel is back in the competition, and the quarter-final matchups are announced:
| Team Jones | Team Sonnen | |
| Robert McDaniel | vs | Uriah Hall |
| Dylan Andrews | vs | Luke Barnatt |
| Josh Samman | vs | Jimmy Quinlan |
| Collin Hart | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 4.
A summary of the season’s fights so far after the break:
The Uncut Sports Show recap of UFC 158.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finalist Mike Ricci, made his return back to lightweight and did not disappoint. He won a unanimous decision over Colin Fletcher by dissecting him, applying pressure, and neutralizing Fletchers leg kicks.
More on UFC 158 after the break:
Check out the latest episode of Uncut Sports Show: TUF Episode 8 Recap; Don Frye accuses UFC of fixing some of Brock Lesnar’s fights.
We compiled a list of some of the most unusual and controversial decisions in the history of mixed martial arts. This includes most controversial split decisions (with the biggest difference in scores among the judges) and the most lopsided unanimous decisions (with the biggest difference in scores between the two fighters).
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/unusual-decisions/
Take a look and let us know what you think!
