Last week, UFC delivered a great event in Fight Night 68.  With almost every fight on the card ending with a spectacular finish, this is a tough act to follow.  Especially when it’s followed by a very weak Pay-Per-View that, save for the headliner, would be much better suited for a free Fight Night or even a Fight Pass event.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: (C) [NR] Cain Velasquez vs (IC) [#1 HW] Fabricio Werdum for undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.

Worth: $25

Why: Almost six months and countless UFC events into the year, this is only the second fight to receive my maximum single fight valuation of $25 (the first was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182).   The reigning UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will fight for the first time in nearly two years, and this will be his first fight since 2010 against an opponent not named Junior dos Santos or Antonio Silva.  This time he will be facing Fabricio Werdum, who has been on a tear: 5-0 in his current UFC stint, and capturing the interim title that UFC created due to Cain’s extended absence in his most recent fight with Mark Hunt.

This is a great title unification fight between #4 and #5 ranked heavyweights of all time.  And the winner is likely to further climb the all time ranking, besides cementing his #1 spot on the current rankings.  Fabricio Werdum has shown amazing improvement in his recent career, and I won’t be surprised to see him defeat Velasquez, especially since ring rust is a very likely factor (last time Velasquez returned to action after an extended layoff, he was knocked out in the first round by dos Santos).  On the other hand, Werdum is a notorious slow starter who tends to absorb some punishment early on, but weathers the storm and takes over later in the fight when his opponent gets tired.  This could be very bad news against a fighter like Velasquez, who goes all out from the opening bell to the end of the last round, and has the cardio to keep the same insane pace in a five round fight.

But I have no horse in this race – there are great matchups in store for the man who walks away with the unified title.  If Cain retains, he will most likely face Stipe Miocic next, with Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell as viable backup options.  If Werdum overcomes, he will probably get an opportunity to avenge the only stoppage loss of his career against JDS.  The heavyweight division is becoming very fun to watch after years of stagnation, even if there is not a single fighter in the Top 10 under 30 and most of the contenders are familiar faces.  Great fight… and it’s all downhill from here.

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Heavyweight Championship (265)
[*] Cain Velasquez (13-1-0, -460) vs. [#1/#10DD/#7P4P] Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1, +357)
Cain Velasquez is the All-Time #4 ranked Heavyweight and #17 ranked Absolute fighter.
Fabricio Werdum is the All-Time #5 ranked Heavyweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Cain Velasquez (3-0-0)
2013-10-19: W vs. [#2HW+] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0) via TKO (Slam and Punch) in 3:09 of round 5
2013-05-25: W vs. [#10HW+] Antonio Silva (18-7-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:21 of round 1
2012-12-29: W vs. [#2HW+] Junior dos Santos (17-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-43)

Last 3 Fights: Fabricio Werdum (3-0-0)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#8HW+] Mark Hunt (10-10-1) via TKO (Knee and Punches) in 2:27 of round 2
2014-04-19: W vs. [#6HW+] Travis Browne (17-3-1) via UD (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
2013-06-08: W vs. [#28HW+] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:41 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cain Velasquez 602, Fabricio Werdum 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Cain Velasquez leads 5-2
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Lightweight (155)
[#7] Gilbert Melendez (22-4-0, -177) vs. [#12] Eddie Alvarez (25-4-0, +147)
Gilbert Melendez is the All-Time #6 ranked Lightweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.
Eddie Alvarez is the All-Time #11 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Gilbert Melendez (1-2-0)
2014-12-06: L vs. [#3LW] Anthony Pettis (18-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:53 of round 2
2013-10-19: W vs. [#25LW] Diego Sanchez (25-7-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2013-04-20: L vs. [#4LW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via SD (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)

Last 3 Fights: Eddie Alvarez (2-1-0)
2014-09-27: L vs. [#2LW] Donald Cerrone (28-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2013-11-02: W vs. [#23LW] Michael Chandler (12-3-0) via SD (47-48, 48-47, 47-48)
2012-10-12: W vs. [#52LW] Patricky Freire (13-6-0) via KO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:54 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gilbert Melendez 189, Eddie Alvarez 259
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Gilbert Melendez leads 3-2
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Middleweight (185)
[#13] Kelvin Gastelum (10-1-0, -409) vs. [#32] Nate Marquardt (33-14-2, +310)
Nate Marquardt is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kelvin Gastelum (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: L vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2014-11-15: W vs. [#15WW] Jake Ellenberger (30-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:46 of round 1
2014-06-28: W vs. [#39WW] Nicholas Musoke (13-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nate Marquardt (1-2-0)
2015-01-03: L vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#137MW] James Te Huna (16-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:34 of round 1
2013-10-19: L vs. [#5WW] Hector Lombard (34-4-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:48 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kelvin Gastelum 133, Nate Marquardt 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Last week’s UFC Fight Night 67 : Condit vs Alves delivered a mixed bag, with several fun fights and great finishes mixed in with a couple of nearly unwatchable clinch-fests and Ryan Jimmo puking in a bucket in what was likely his last Octagon appearance.   Another weekend, another fight night coming up.  Let’s see what this one looks like on paper (or your screen, to be precise).

Main Event: [#17 MW] Dan Henderson vs  [#20 MW] Tim Boetsch

Worth: $5

Why: These types of fights make me sad.  Here we have a 44-year old legend of the sport, the only regret of his storied career being the failure to win UFC gold in the post-tournament era.  He’s only won one fight in his past six; more concerningly, he has been stopped in his last three losses.  Granted, all these fights have been against the cream of the crop at middleweight, light heavyweight, and even heavyweight fighters.  Now in his second fight back at 185 lbs, Henderson is taking on Tim Boetsch – a tough, high-level journeyman brawler.  The last time ‘Hendo’ fought fighters of that level were his matchups with Renato ‘Babalu’ Sobral and Rafael ‘Feijao’ Cavalcante back in Strikeforce.  And while he disposed of them handily, I don’t think he will have as easy of a time with Boetsch.

Four years is a long time for a fighter in his forties who is coming off a TRT regiment.   While Henderson is a decorated wrestler, his best attributes as an MMA fighter have always been a rock solid chin, and a nuclear warhead of a right hand, aptly nicknamed ‘The H-Bomb’.  After his last few fights, the legendary chin has been showing a few cracks, and while the H-Bomb is as powerful as ever, deteriorating hand speed and reflexes mean that Hendo will have fewer opportunities to plant it on his opponents.  Boetsch is a big step down in competition compared to Henderson’s most recent UFC stint, but he is still a very dangerous opponent, and Dan should hang up the gloves for good if he can’t get past Tim.

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Middleweight (185)
[#17] Dan Henderson (30-13-0, +163) vs. [#20] Tim Boetsch (18-8-0, -194)
Dan Henderson is the All-Time #5 ranked Middleweight and #10 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dan Henderson (1-2-0)
2015-01-24: L vs. [#5MW] Gegard Mousasi (37-5-2) via TKO (Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2014-05-24: L vs. [#2LHW/#6DD/#5P4P] Daniel Cormier (16-1-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3
2014-03-23: W vs. [#16LHW] Mauricio Rua (22-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:31 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Tim Boetsch (1-2-0)
2015-01-31: L vs. [#8MW] Thales Leites (25-4-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:45 of round 2
2014-08-16: W vs. [#27MW] Brad Tavares (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:18 of round 2
2014-04-26: L vs. [#2MW] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via Submission (Inverted Triangle Kimura) in 2:08 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dan Henderson 133, Tim Boetsch 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#9] Ben Rothwell (34-9-0, +160) vs. [#12] Matt Mitrione (9-3-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (2-1-0)
2014-09-05: W vs. [#6HW+] Alistair Overeem (39-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:19 of round 1
2013-08-31: W vs. [#66HW+] Brandon Vera (13-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 1:54 of round 3
2013-01-19: L vs. [#33HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 1:01 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Matt Mitrione (3-0-0)
2014-12-13: W vs. [#33HW+] Gabriel Gonzaga (16-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:59 of round 1
2014-09-05: W vs. [#55HW+] Derrick Lewis (12-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:41 of round 1
2014-03-01: W vs. [#35HW+] Shawn Jordan (17-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ben Rothwell 274, Matt Mitrione 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 2-1
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Lightweight (155)
[#25] Dustin Poirier (17-4-0, -187) vs. [#80] Yancy Medeiros (11-2-0, +158)

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2015-04-04: W vs. [#62LW] Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:45 of round 1
2014-09-27: L vs. [#6FW] Conor McGregor (17-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:46 of round 1
2014-04-16: W vs. [*] Akira Corassani (12-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Yancy Medeiros (2-1-0)
2014-12-12: W vs. [#121LW] Joe Proctor (10-3-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:37 of round 1
2014-08-30: W vs. [#136FW] Damon Jackson (9-2-0) via Submission (Reverse Bulldog Choke) in 1:54 of round 2
2014-04-26: L vs. [#35LW] Jim Miller (24-6-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:18 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 63, Yancy Medeiros 176
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Coming off an excellent UFC 187 Pay-Per-View, Ultimate Fighting Championship has a busy schedule for the remainder of May and June, with a fight card every weekend for the next 5 weeks.  Inevitably, this means that the talent will be spread thin among so many events, especially considering the number of stars who fought last week.  There are still a few interesting fights on the next upcoming event, so without further ado, let’s take a look at UFC Fight Night 67: Alves vs Condit – broadcast live from Brazil on Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass.

Main Event: [#12 WW] Carlos Condit  vs [#14 WW] Thiago Alves

Worth: $15

Why: The careers of our welterweight main event participants have followed an oddly similar path.  Both are 31 years old and have been fighting professionally for over a decade.  Both are Muay Thai stylists with significant fight-ending power in their limbs (though Condit is the more versed of the two in the ground game).  Both peaked around 2008, when Condit was the long-reigning WEC welterweight champion, whereas Alves has accumulated seven consecutive wins in the UFC, earning a shot at then champion Georges St. Pierre.  One might say that it was all downhill from there for both fighters:  Alves was battered for five rounds by GSP in a one-sided affair, after which he managed only a 2-3 record before taking a two year long break from the sport due to injuries.  Around the same time, Condit entered the UFC as a part of WEC merger, and had his sights set on the gold but suffered a controversial split decision loss to Martin Kampmann in his Octagon debut.  He did eventually earn his shot at St. Pierre, but didn’t fare much better than Alves, losing a decision despite getting a near finish in the fourth round.

In 2015, it’s not exactly clear where either fighter stands in the wide open post-GSP division.  Thiago Alves made a successful return after his injury, scoring a decision over Seth Baczynski, then stopping Jordan Mein after overcoming some adversity early in the fight.  Condit has been on a layoff of his own, after injuring his knee in a loss to Tyron Woodley, and will be looking to regain his place as a contender.  The winner of this fight will be edging into the title picture, alongside Johnny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley.  The loser will likely be relegated into the ‘aging gatekeeper’ territory.  Either way, this promises to be an exciting battle of two of the most feared welterweight strikers.

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Welterweight (170)
[#12] Carlos Condit (29-8-0) vs. [#14] Thiago Alves (21-9-0)
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #5 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Thiago Alves is the All-Time #12 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (1-2-0)
2014-03-15: L vs. [#4WW] Tyron Woodley (15-3-0) via TKO (Leg Kick) in 2:00 of round 2
2013-08-28: W vs. [*] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via TKO (Punches and Knees) in 0:54 of round 4
2013-03-16: L vs. [#2WW/#9DD/#9P4P] Johny Hendricks (17-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Alves (2-1-0)
2015-01-31: W vs. [#23WW] Jordan Mein (29-10-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 0:39 of round 2
2014-04-19: W vs. [#134WW] Seth Baczynski (19-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2012-03-03: L vs. [*] Martin Kampmann (20-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:12 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Carlos Condit 441, Thiago Alves 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Carlos Condit leads 2-1
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Featherweight (145)
[#10] Nik Lentz (25-6-2) vs. [#12] Charles Oliveira (19-4-0)

Last 3 Fights: Nik Lentz (2-1-0)
2014-05-10: W vs. [#9BW] Manny Gamburyan (14-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-12-14: L vs. [#3FW] Chad Mendes (17-2-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2013-05-18: W vs. [#18FW] Hacran Dias (22-3-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Oliveira (3-0-0)
2014-12-12: W vs. [#17FW] Jeremy Stephens (23-11-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2014-06-28: W vs. [#106FW] Hatsu Hioki (27-9-2) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:32 of round 2
2014-02-15: W vs. [#255FW] Andy Ogle (9-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 2:40 of round 3

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Nik Lentz 385, Charles Oliveira 169
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#55LW] K.J. Noons (13-7-0) vs. [#328LW] Alex Oliveira (10-2-1)

Last 3 Fights: K.J. Noons (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2014-12-12: NC vs. [#56LW] Daron Cruickshank (16-6-0)
2014-04-16: W vs. [#139LW] Sam Stout (20-11-1) via KO (Punches) in 0:30 of round 1
2013-10-19: W vs. [#363LW] George Sotiropoulos (14-7-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Oliveira (2-1-0)
2015-03-21: L vs. [#44LW] Gilbert Burns (10-0-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:14 of round 3
2015-02-21: W vs. [#660WW] Joilton Santos (9-4-0) via UD ()
2014-10-18: W vs. [#1486WW] Douglas Aparecido (5-7-0) via TKO in 2:52 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: K.J. Noons 169, Alex Oliveira 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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UFC has had a lot of ups and downs in 2015 so far.   After a fairly successful first quarter in terms of TV ratings and Pay-Per-View buy numbers, the promotion hit another rough patch: cards falling apart due to injuries, controversial Reebok sponsorship deal which left many fighters unhappy, and legal issues faced by the company as well as certain fighters.  Nonetheless, the line-up they put together for UFC 187 looked to be the most stacked card since UFC 100 (and arguably the best in the organization history).  Of course the MMA gods didn’t spare this great card: light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, who was slated to defend his title against Anthony Johnson, was stripped of the belt and suspended from UFC due to a series of poor decisions on his part, and a lightweight title eliminator bout between two top contenders fell apart when Khabib Nurmagomedov suffered an injury and pulled out of his fight against Donald Cerrone.  Despite these losses, UFC 187 had such a strong line-up that it still remains an amazing card, and will be one of the rare PPV events worth the asking price.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: [#2 LHW] Anthony Johnson vs [#3 LHW] Daniel Cormier for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why: If the original main event of Jon Jones vs Anthony Johnson had gone on as planned, it would have been the second UFC fight this year to receive my max valuation of $25 (the first and only one so far was Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier at UFC 182).  The replacement bout of ‘Rumble’ Johnson vs Daniel Cormier is still a great fight, but let’s not kid ourselves: the winner of this fight will be a paper champion unless Jon Jones receives a lengthy prison term for his shenanigans, or decides to walk away from the sport.  I am looking forward to Cormier-Johnson, and really this was the best fight UFC could have made under the circumstances, but I can’t help the feeling that the winner of this fight will be just keeping the belt warm for Jones’ eventual return.

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Light Heavyweight Championship (205)
[#2/#7P4P] Anthony Johnson (19-4-0) vs. [#3] Daniel Cormier (15-1-0)
Anthony Johnson is the All-Time #19 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Anthony Johnson (3-0-0)
2015-01-24: W vs. [#6LHW] Alexander Gustafsson (16-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2014-07-26: W vs. [#11LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 1
2014-04-26: W vs. [#5LHW] Phil Davis (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Daniel Cormier (2-1-0)
2015-01-03: L vs. [#1LHW/#2DD/#1P4P] Jon Jones (21-1-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2014-05-24: W vs. [#16MW] Dan Henderson (30-13-0) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:53 of round 3
2014-02-22: W vs. [#42LHW] Patrick Cummins (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Anthony Johnson 119, Daniel Cormier 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight Championship (185)
[#1/#1DD/#3P4P] Chris Weidman (12-0-0) vs. [*] Vitor Belfort (24-10-0)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #2 ranked Middleweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (3-0-0)
2014-07-05: W vs. [#4MW] Lyoto Machida (22-6-0) via UD (49-45, 48-47, 49-46)
2013-12-28: W vs. [#6MW] Anderson Silva (34-6-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 1:16 of round 2
2013-07-06: W vs. [#6MW] Anderson Silva (34-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Vitor Belfort (3-0-0)
2013-11-09: W vs. [#16MW] Dan Henderson (30-13-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:17 of round 1
2013-05-18: W vs. [#2MW/#9DD] Luke Rockhold (14-2-0) via KO (Spinning Heel Kick and Punches) in 2:32 of round 1
2013-01-19: W vs. [#9MW] Michael Bisping (26-7-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:27 of round 2

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Chris Weidman 322, Vitor Belfort 560
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Chris Weidman leads 2-0
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Lightweight (155)
[#2] Donald Cerrone (27-6-0) vs. [#62] John Makdessi (13-3-0)
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #17 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (3-0-0)
2015-01-18: W vs. [#4LW] Ben Henderson (22-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2015-01-03: W vs. [#13LW] Myles Jury (15-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2014-09-27: W vs. [#12LW] Eddie Alvarez (25-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: John Makdessi (2-1-0)
2015-04-25: W vs. [#144LW] Shane Campbell (11-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:53 of round 1
2014-02-01: L vs. [*] Alan Patrick Silva Alves (12-0-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2013-09-21: W vs. [#472LW] Renee Forte (8-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 1

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 125, John Makdessi 28
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Donald Cerrone leads 1-0
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