The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 10 Review
In Episode 10, two of the quarter-final matchups took place, with each team taking home a win:
Team Jones’ Dylan Andrews stopped Luke Barnatt with strikes in the third (overtime) round, while in the battle of unranked fighters, Team Sonnen’s Kevin Gastelum disposed of Colin Hart in a wild striking exchange in the very first round.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 5, Team Jones 5.
Here’s who remains:
Featured Upcoming Bouts (Outside of UFC)
| Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2 | |||
 [#4 LHW] Corey Anderson |  [#10 LHW] Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 7/19/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#13 HW] Denis Goltsov Last 5: NC L W W W | Last Fight Date: 11/29/2024 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#21 MW] Impa Kasanganay Last 5: W W W W W | ||
| Friday, October 3rd 2025: PFL Champions Series 2: Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes 2 | |||
 [#9 LW] Usman Nurmagomedov (-164) |  [#14 LW] Paul Hughes (+128) | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 1/25/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#14 LW] Paul Hughes Last 5: W W NC W W | Last Fight Date: 5/10/2025 [PFL] Last Opponent: [#51 LW] Bruno Miranda Last 5: W W W L W | ||
| Saturday, November 8th 2025: Dynamite MMA 4 - Nov. 8 | |||
 [#4 W105] Andressa Romero |  [#20 W105] Claire Lopez | ||
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| Last Fight Date: 9/20/2024 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [#2 W105] Elisandra Ferreira de Oliveira Last 5: W L L W L | Last Fight Date: 4/04/2025 [Invicta FC] Last Opponent: [#12 W105] Taynara Silva Last 5: W W L L L | ||
Featured Fighters
| [#3 FW] | Diego Lopes | [#19 FW] | Jean Silva | |
| [#2 LW] |  Ilia Topuria | [#1 LW] | Islam Makhachev | |
| [NR] | Matt Brown | [#4 LW] | Charles Oliveira | |
| [NR] |  Conor McGregor | [#90 WW] |  Daniil Donchenko | |
| [NR] | Chris Lytle | [#1 MW] |  Khamzat Chimaev |
Ranking Filters Enhancements
We’ve enhanced our rankings by adding a couple of new filter features:
- Team Affiliation
- Age Range
- And for all you promoters and matchmakers out there, added ‘Not Scheduled’ to the Next Fight filter, to quickly view the ranked fighters with no known scheduled fights.
For example, you can now view all the heavyweights in the American Top Team camp:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/heavyweight-265-lbs/?TeamFilter=American+Top+Team
Or, all American welterweights who last fought outside of UFC and have no known scheduled bouts:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/welterweight/?OrgFilter=-1&NatFilter=US&OrgFilter2=0
Or all UFC lightweights under 30:
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-ranks/lightweight/?OrgFilter=UFC&AgeToFilter=29
The possibilities & combinations are (nearly) limitless!
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 9 Review
In Episode 9, Team Jones evens the score in the wildcard bout. After winning the first round and losing the second, Kevin Casey failed to answer the bell for the tie-breaking third round. Bubba McDaniel is back in the competition, and the quarter-final matchups are announced:
| Team Jones | Team Sonnen | |
| Robert McDaniel | vs | Uriah Hall |
| Dylan Andrews | vs | Luke Barnatt |
| Josh Samman | vs | Jimmy Quinlan |
| Collin Hart | vs | Kelvin Gastelum |
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 4.
A summary of the season’s fights so far after the break:
The Uncut Sports Show: UFC 158 Review
The Uncut Sports Show recap of UFC 158.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finalist Mike Ricci, made his return back to lightweight and did not disappoint. He won a unanimous decision over Colin Fletcher by dissecting him, applying pressure, and neutralizing Fletchers leg kicks.
More on UFC 158 after the break:
The Uncut Sports Show: The Ultimate Fighter 17 Ep. 8 Recap, Don Frye Thinks Brock Lesnar is a Cheater!
Check out the latest episode of Uncut Sports Show: TUF Episode 8 Recap; Don Frye accuses UFC of fixing some of Brock Lesnar’s fights.
New Feature: Unusual Decisions
We compiled a list of some of the most unusual and controversial decisions in the history of mixed martial arts. This includes most controversial split decisions (with the biggest difference in scores among the judges) and the most lopsided unanimous decisions (with the biggest difference in scores between the two fighters).
http://www.fightmatrix.com/mma-records-stats/unusual-decisions/
Take a look and let us know what you think!
UFC 158 / Odds vs. Ratings (03-16-2013)
This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
| Fight | Odds Favorite | Rating Favorite | I’d bet on | “Gotchas” |
| Duran vs. Roop | Duran (-144 / Small) | Roop (2.73x / Very Large) | Roop | #2 |
| Dillashaw vs. Tamura | Dillashaw (-524 / Very Large) | Dillashaw (2.03x / Large) | Dillashaw | |
| Story vs. Mulhern | Story (-375 / Large) | Story (1.35x / Small) | Mulhern | |
| Cruickshank vs. Makdessi | Cruickshank (-185 / Moderate) | Makdessi (1.19x / Very Small) | Makdessi | #4 |
| Mein vs. Miller | Mein (-257 / Moderate) | Mein (2.04x / Large) | Mein | #1, #4 |
| Elkins vs. Carvalho | Elkins (-237 / Moderate) | Elkins (1.65x / Moderate) | PASS | #4 |
| Cote vs. Voelker | Cote (-180 / Moderate) | Cote (1.82x / Moderate) | PASS | |
| Ricci vs. Fletcher | Ricci (-276 / Moderate) | Fletcher (1.11x / Very Small) | Fletcher | #4 |
| Camozzi vs. Ring | Ring (-117 / Pick ‘Em) | Ring (1.05x / Pick ‘Em) | PASS | #4 |
| Ellenberger vs. Marquardt | Ellenberger (-166 / Small) | Ellenberger (1.30x / Small) | PASS | |
| Condit vs. Hendricks | Hendricks (-137 / Very Small) | Hendricks (1.33x / Small) | Hendricks | |
| St. Pierre vs. Diaz | St. Pierre (-485 / Large) | St. Pierre (2.81x / Very Large) | St. Pierre | #4 |
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet.
Favorites to consider: Dillashaw, Hendricks and St. Pierre.
Underdogs to consider:
Mulhern over Story – Story is way too large of a favorite, so Mulhern is worth a shot in the dark.
Makdessi over Cruickshank – A tight matchup, in which the rating system favors Makdessi, who also has the home advantage.
Fletcher over Ricci – A 50/50 matchup, but one that seems way too slanted in favor of Ricci in terms of odds.
Roop over Duran – Roop is a BIG ratings favorite, which usually means the gamblers are on to something. Tread carefully.
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 8 Review
In Episode 8, Team Jones closes the gap as Dylan Andrews takes home a majority decision win over Zak Cummings.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 3.
Next week, Bubba McDaniel and Kevin Casey will get a second chance at continuing in the TUF tournament as they face off in the “wildcard” bout.
Here’s who remains:
Fightmatrix Program: UFC 158 (03-16-2013)
Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#5DD] Georges St. Pierre (23-2-0, -488) vs. [#7] Nick Diaz (26-8-0, +367)
Georges St. Pierre is the All-Time #1 ranked Welterweight and #2 ranked Absolute fighter.
Nick Diaz is the All-Time #9 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Georges St. Pierre (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#3WW] Carlos Condit (28-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2011-04-30: W vs. [#11MW] Jake Shields (27-6-1) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2010-12-11: W vs. [#16WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Last 3 Fights: Nick Diaz (2-1-0)
2012-02-04: L vs. [#3WW] Carlos Condit (28-6-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-10-29: W vs. [#20WW] B.J. Penn (16-9-2) via UD (29-28, 29-27, 29-28)
2011-04-09: W vs. [#28WW] Paul Daley (31-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 4:57 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Georges St. Pierre 119, Nick Diaz 406
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Georges St. Pierre leads 6-2
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Welterweight (170)
[#2] Johny Hendricks (14-1-0, -135) vs. [#3] Carlos Condit (28-6-0, +111)
Johny Hendricks is the All-Time #16 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Carlos Condit is the All-Time #7 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Johny Hendricks (3-0-0)
2012-11-17: W vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:46 of round 1
2012-05-05: W vs. [#16WW] Josh Koscheck (17-7-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2011-12-30: W vs. [#18WW] Jon Fitch (24-5-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:12 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Carlos Condit (2-1-0)
2012-11-17: L vs. [#1WW/#5DD] Georges St. Pierre (23-2-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
2012-02-04: W vs. [#7WW] Nick Diaz (26-8-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2011-07-02: W vs. [#14WW] Dong Hyun Kim (17-2-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 2:58 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Johny Hendricks 119, Carlos Condit 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Johny Hendricks leads 1-0
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Welterweight (170)
[#6] Jake Ellenberger (28-6-0, -165) vs. [#12] Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, +143)
Jake Ellenberger is the All-Time #17 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Nate Marquardt is the All-Time #14 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Jake Ellenberger (2-1-0)
2012-10-05: W vs. [#27WW] Jay Hieron (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2012-06-01: L vs. [#5WW] Martin Kampmann (20-6-0) via TKO (Knee) in 1:40 of round 2
2012-02-15: W vs. [#9LW] Diego Sanchez (24-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Last 3 Fights: Nate Marquardt (2-1-0)
2013-01-12: L vs. [#11WW] Tarec Saffiedine (14-3-0) via UD (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
2012-07-14: W vs. [#15WW] Tyron Woodley (11-1-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:39 of round 4
2011-03-19: W vs. [#49WW] Dan Miller (14-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jake Ellenberger 162, Nate Marquardt 63
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Keep Reading
The Uncut Sports Show
On the latest episode of the Uncut Sports Show: Transgender MMA fighter Fallon Fox, Team Lloyd Irvin Drama, and TUF Episode 7 Recap.
The Ultimate Fighter 17, Episode 7 Review
Another episode, another upset. Jimmy Quinlan, relentless with his takedown attempts, took out Clint Hester with a rear naked choke in the second round.
Current win tally is Team Sonnen 4, Team Jones 2.
Next week is the remaining opening-round matchup: Zak Cummings vs Dylan Andrews.
Here’s who remains: